8550 is most crucial level

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 06 to Jan 09,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 and 'ABC' correction beginning.
2- Wave'A' completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave'B' beginning
3- Wave'a' of Wave'B' completion at 8364.75 on 23-12-2014
4- Wave'B' of Wave'B' completion at 8147.95 on 26-12-2014
5- Wave'c' of Wave'B' continuation with its recent top formation at 8445.60 on 05-05-2015 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave'A' of 'ABC' correction begun after Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 which completed at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave'B' started in "abc" mode. Now Wave'c' of Wave'B' continuation with its recent top formation at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels of Wave'B' are as follows(7961-8626):-

13.0%-8047 
23.6%-8117 
27.0%-8140 
38.2%-8215 
50.0%-8293 
61.8%-8371 
70.7%-8431 
76.4%-8469 
78.6%-8483 
88.6%-8550

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Jan-2015):-

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Wave'a' of Wave'B' gained 403 points(8364-7961)
Wave'B' of Wave'B' completed at 8147 and Wave'c' of Wave'B' started.
If Wave'c' of Wave'B' gains 100% points of Wave'a' of Wave'B' then its maximum target will be at 8550(8147+403)

8550 becomes most crucial level because 88.6% Retracement Level is also exactly at 8550.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8430-8445 
2- Selling between 8405-8515
3- Support between 8383-8387
4- Support between 8364-8375
5- Whole day actual trading between 8364-8445

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

It was a volatile day today with higher levels selling and lower levels buying as well therefore firstly sustaining beyond today trading range should be watched for first strong signal of next decisive moves commencement and the continuation/completion of Wave'c' of Wave'B'.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Expected that Wave'c' of Wave'B' will complete between 8431-8550 and Wave'C' will begin towards new lows below 7961. Next resistances above today highest are between 8510-8614 and 8550 is lying within it therefore Nifty will not easily cross this resistance range.

Follow up moves and finally sustaining beyond 8364-8445 will decide the fate of Wave'c' of Wave'B'for up moves up to 8550/down moves below 7961. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(05-01-2015)

Selling patterns formations between 8405-8415 in last 1 hour today.

Mid-session Outlook(05-01-2015)

Although now trading near the lower levels of the day after loosing most intraday gains but some supports seen at lower levels and out performing Global Cues as well therefore firstly today trading range(8390-8445) and finally following Fibonacci retracement levels should be watched for the confirmations of on going correction continuation/completion confirmations:-

61.8%-8371 
70.7%-8431 
76.4%-8469 
78.6%-8483 
88.6%-8550 

As I have been busy therefore today Outlook could not be prepared and not being posted but Mid-session Outlook will be positively updated during trading hours today.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(02-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 8262-8280 
2- Mixed Patterns formations between 8280-8294 in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 8249-8294

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day good selling yesterday therefore most time negative zone trading after weak opening today. Good selling between 8218-8286 in previous sessions but today most time trading with closing within this range with Mixed Patterns formations therefore view is cautious and  firstly follow up moves with sustaining beyond this range should be watched tomorrow for next immediate trend confirmations.

Bears will welcome in 2015

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(01-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8268-8080
2- Selling Patterns formations at higher levels between 8280-8291
3- Whole day actual trading between 8251-8291

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although most time positive zone trading with closing near the higher levels of the day but good selling seen today therefore fresh down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.

As selling seen in previous sessions also therefore expected that finally down moves will be seen below 8218/8155/7961.35 and Bear will welcome in 2015.

Fresh Down Moves Possibility despite today Closing near the Higher Levels

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation and supports between 8221-8237
2- Whole day actual trading between 8221-8268

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following line was told today at 10:17 AM in Mid-session Outlook(30-12-2014)

sustaining beyond 8218-8286 should be watched for next decisive move confirmations.

Nifty traded between 8220.55-8268.25 with lower levels consolidations today but higher levels selling was seen within following ranges on:-

1- 29-12-2014 between 8260-8279
2- 24-12-2014 between 8218-8286

Although selling above 8218 on 24-12-2014 but not slipping below it today despite most depressed Asian markets because Union Cabinet approved amendment to Land Acquisiton Act after Indian Stock Market closing yesterday. As consolidation and supports above 8218 between 8221-8237 today therefore firstly sustaining below 8221 should be watched for next down moves confirmations.

Although Nifty closed near the higher levels of today but lower levels supports between 8221-8237 are not strong and until Nifty will not sustain above 8286 till then decisive up moves will not be considered. It must be kept in mind that failure to cross or sustain above 8286 and fresh selling below or near about 8286 will mean high possibility of fresh sharp down moves below 8218.

As strong indications of corrective Wave'C' continuation towards and below 7961.35 after Wave'B' termination at 8364 on 23-12-2014 therefore expected that Nifty will not sustain above 8286 and fresh down moves will be seen below 8218 after fresh selling below or near about 8286 within next 2/3 days.  

Mid-session Outlook(30-12-2014)

As Union Cabinet cleared ordinance to ease land acquisitions in reforms push after market yesterday therefore Indian markets are flat to positive despite good selling at higher levels yesterday. Certainly view is cautious after such encouraging development and firstly sustaining beyond 8218-8286 should be watched for next decisive move confirmations.

Correction continuation despite 0.56% Positive closing on 29-12-2014

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(30-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8260-8279(recent resistance) 
2- Whole day actual trading between 8240-8279

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty closed 0.56% up today but good selling between 8260-8279 therefore strong indications of slipping below day's actual trading lowest(8240). Selling between 8218-8286 on 24-12-2014 and selling seen within this range today also therefore strong indications of corrective Wave'C' continuation towards and below 7961.35 after Wave'B' termination at 8364 on 23-12-2014.

As I was out of station therefore Today Outlook is not being updated but tomorrow Outlook will be positively posted before the opening of tomorrow market.

Correction below 7961 and towards 7698/7637

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8253-8286
2- Follow up selling between 8218-8256
3- Whole day actual trading between 8155-8286

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(24-12-2014):-

As last 3 hours trading between 8252-8294 with mixed Patterns formations therefore Nifty will firstly prepare for next moves within and near about this range  

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty firstly traded more than 2 hours as well as prepare for next decisive moves within mentioned range between 8253-8286 today.

Following lines were also told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(24-12-2014):-

1- Next supports(weaker) are between 8229-8251
2- once sustaining below 8229 will mean sharp fall.

We clearly told weaker supports and this support broken down forcefully after almost 3 hours follow up selling between 8218-8256.

Although Nifty closed near the top of the day on 22-12-2014 but we were not Bullish and told following conclusive lines in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-12-2014):-

1- It should be kept in mind that Wave'B' is on and it should terminate below the top of Wave-5(8626.95)
2- Whenever intraday selling patterns will develop then that will be first signal of Wave'B' completion and Wave'C' beginning for fresh down moves below the lowest of Wave'A'(7961.35)

Wave'C' is on after good selling in last 2 sessions and same view which was told on 21-12-2014 in Correction Continuation Possibility below 7961.35

high possibility of down moves below 7961.35 

Wave'B' terminated at 8364 and Wave'C' is continued. Wave'A' corrected 666 points and  Wave'C' may also retrace 666 points therefore possibility of correction towards 7698(8364-666) can not be ruled out. Correction is on,Intermediate Term and Short Term Trends are down and testing of Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(7637) is also possible because it is little below 7698.

Finally correction is very much on and its continuation is expected in the coming sessions.Until complete consolidation will not happen on EOD charts till then correction completion will not be considered.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(24-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 2 Hours selling between 8346-8364
2- Last 3 hours trading between 8252-8294 with mixed Patterns formations (Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel at lower levels and minor selling patterns near 8294)
3- Whole day actual trading between 8252-8364

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-12-2014)

Next resistances are between 8320-8370 and Nifty closed within this range today,firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow for Pull Back rally continuation/completion

Resistances are between 8320-8370 was told and Nifty could not move above 8370 as well as slipped below 8320 after follow up selling within mentioned resistance range. It should be kept in mind that resistances within 8320-8370 have been strengthened today because follow up selling within this range and until complete consolidation will not happen till then Nifty will not move above 8370.

As last 3 hours trading between 8252-8294 with mixed Patterns formations therefore Nifty will firstly prepare for next moves within and near about this range and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong indication of next decisive moves.

Next supports(weaker) are between 8229-8251 and finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming sessions and should be kept in mind that once sustaining below 8229 will mean sharp fall.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly more than 4 hours trading with mixed Patterns formations between 8229-8251
2- Forceful up moves after sharp 55 points jump of  Dow's Futures.
3- Whole day actual trading between 8229-8330

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As strong Asian markets therefore positive opening and after that more than 4 hours trading with minor gains and mixed Patterns formations between 8229-8251 but sharp 55 points jump of  Dow's Futures at 01:20 PM and resultant Indian markets also moved up forcefully.

Selling between 8243-8263 last Friday and this range was crossed forcefully therefore Pull Back rally remain continued. Next resistances are between 8320-8370 and Nifty closed within this range today,firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow for Pull Back rally continuation/completion. It should be kept in mind that Wave'B' is on and it should terminate below the top of Wave-5(8626.95). Whenever intraday selling patterns will develop then that will be first signal of Wave'B' completion and Wave'C' beginning for fresh down moves below the lowest of Wave'A'(7961.35)

Mid-session Outlook(22-12-2014)

As strong Asian markets therefore firstly positive opening and after that more than 4 hours trading with minor gains but sharp 55 points jump of  Dow's Futures was seen at 01:20 PM and resultant Indian markets also moved up sharply. Although on the back of strong Global cues but Nifty moved up forcefully above last Friday selling range(8243-8263) therefore Pull Back rally continuation will be seen.

Correction Continuation Possibility below 7961.35

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Dec 22 to Dec 26,2014)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts:-

1- 5933.30 on 04-02-2014(Rally beginning after correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6869.85 on 25-04-2014)
3- Wave-2(6638.55 on 08-05-2014)
4- Wave-3(8180.20 on 08-09-2014)
5- Wave-4(7723.85 on 17-10-2014)
6- Wave-5(8626.95 on 04-12-2014) and 'ABC' correction beginning.
7- Wave'A' completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2013
8- Wave'B' continuation with its recent top formation at 8263.45 on 19-12-2013 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

we told also following line on 12-05-2014 in Minimum target of  Nifty at 8616.90:-

Nifty is well set for rally towards minimum target at 8616.90. 

8616.90 was told 6 months before and Nifty made intraday highest at 8617 on 28-11-2014 as well as immediately corrected 666 points after forming life time high formation at 8626.95.

When Nifty formed all time high at 8616.90 on 04-12-2014 then at the top of rally we posted following bearish Outlook at 08:02 AM on 05-12-2014 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(05-12-2014):-

emergence of correction possibility which may be minimum Short Term to Intermediate term

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty corrected 666 points after ours above prediction.

Now Wave'B' of 'ABC' correction is on after 10 months strong 2693 points strong rally which started from 5933.30 on 04-02-2014 and ended after many times new life time high formation at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 and Corrective Wave'A' begun which completed at 7961.35 on 17-12-2013. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling(immediate Resistance) between 8243-8263
2- Whole day actual trading between 8209-8263

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Gap up opening after strong Global cues but higher levels sliing patterns were formation were also seen therefore down moves below day's lowest(8209) are expected. As good selling seen therefore until complete consolidation will not be seen till then up moves above day's highest(8263) will not be seen.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

'ABC' correction is confirm and if complete consolidation happens after completion of Wave'C' only then correction completion will be considered otherwise 5 Waves correction(1,2,3,4,5) will be seen in the coming weeks/months. As good selling on 19-12-2014 therefore if follow up selling develops in the beginning of next week then fresh down moves will be seen below the bottom of Wave'A'(7961.35) which will mean Wave'c' beginning after the completion of Wave'B'.

Correction is on and its continuation is expected in the beginning of next week because good selling at higher levels last Friday as well as high possibility of down moves below 7961.35 after completion of Wave'B' at 8263.45 on 19-12-2013.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(19-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8085-8115
2- Last 2 hours up moves with consolidations
3- Whole day actual trading between 8085-8174

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly lower levels consolidations after huge gap up opening and after that last 2 hours up moves with consolidations also therefore today started Pull Back Rally continuation will be seen tomorrow.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(18-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Lower levels consolidations.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Whole day actual trading between 7961-8082

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly lower levels consolidations and after that up moves with consolidation pattern of down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore up moves in the form of Pull Back rally are expected tomorrow.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(17-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day slipping from higher levels
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

1. Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Correction is on and and 1.85% slipping after most depressing Global markets cues yesterday. Although whole day slipping from higher levels but down moves in Bullish Falling Channel were also seen therefore only some up moves and Pull Back Rally will be considered at this moment.

Technical Position of Nifty is as follows:-

1- Long Term Trend is up,
2- Intermediate and Short Term Trends are down
3- Corrective Wave-A is on. Wave-B(upward) and Wave-C(below yesterday lowest) are still left.

It should be kept in mind that until complete consolidation will not happen on Daily Charts till then fresh rally will not be seen. As Indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally or Wave-B(upward) will be seen after 2/3 days consolidation.  

Pre-open Outlook(16-12-2014)

As US markets and all the European markets closed in deep Red yesterday therefore all the Asian markets are trading in negative zone since opening today. Seems crashing like situation in all the Global markets therefore Indian markets will not be spared and resultant gap down opening will be seen. Correction is on and its continuation will be seen after such high Global markets pressure.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Most time trading between 8204-8242 with down moves in Bullish Falling Channels within this range 
2- Whole day trading between 8153-8242

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although huge gap down opening after most depressing most Global markets but strong more than 50 points recovery in first 3 minutes and most time trading within 38 points between 8204-8242 with down moves in Bullish Falling Channels within this range therefore emergence of fresh up moves expectations tomorrow despite SGX Nifty is now trading 52 points down.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(15-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8309-8321 
2- Selling between 8278-8293
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8273-8321

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

25 sessions trading between 8290-8627 with good selling at higher levels and this range was broken down but Nifty closed above 8290 on 11-12-2014. Firstly higher levels selling above 8290 and after that follow up selling near about 8290 as well as closing below it on 12-12-2014 which is first indication of 25 sessions trading range broken down. As almost last 3 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore only Pull Back Rally possibility will be considered at this moment.

Short Term Trend is down and Intermediate Term Trend will turn down after confirmation of sustaining below 8390 which will mean down trend from 3 weeks to 3 months.Correction is on and until complete consolidation will not happen till then its completion will not be seen and that correction continuation will be considered for which we told in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(05-12-2014).