Bullish Rally continuation

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

 (Feb 24 to Feb 28,2014)

Nifty closed at the top of last 14 sessions last Friday and proved 100% accuracy of our following 2 weekly analysis topics:-

1- Bullish Week Ahead(Posted on 09-02-2014) 
2- View is Bullish(Posted on 16-02-2014) 

(Just click on above topic and understand the reasons of our Bullish views since beginning of on going rally)

Nifty-EOD Chart (21-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

As per previous waves counting:-

1- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
2- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-iv of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)

As per wave theory Wave-4 of any degree should not bottom below the bottom of Wave-2 of the same degree. As Nifty slipped below the bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45) and recent lowest formation at 5933.30 on 04-02-2014 therefore Waves are being recounted as follows:-  

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation
7- 200-Day EMA(today at 6010)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Short term trend is up and finally Long term trend remained up after sustaining above its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6010) in previous week. Intermediate term trend is sideways and that will be up after sustaining above 6188.55.

Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation for new all time high and its possibilities turned high after sustaining above 200-Day EMA and saving of up trend.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 24 to Feb 21,2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 21 Sessions intraday charts

1- Huge gap down(6189-6264) opening on 27-01-2014 
2- 20 Sessions(27-01-2014 to 21-02-2014) actual trading between 5934-6189.
3- Firstly down moves after selling between 6130-6180
4- Multiple and strong supports development at lower levels between 5934-6065 in last 14 sessions.
5- Last 4 sessions trading between 6087-6160 with mixed trading patterns.

Conclusions from 21 Sessions intra day chart analysis

20 Sessions(27-01-2014 to 21-02-2014) actual trading between 5934-6189 with lower levels strong supports and higher levels selling and last Friday closing within last resistance range(6130-6180) of 20 sessions. Nifty traded between 6087-6160 with mixed trading patterns and traded within mentioned resistance range also. As more consolidation seen in last 4 sessions between 6087-6160 therefore emergence of break out possibility of last 20 sessions range after follow up consolidation between mentioned resistance range.   

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Rally is on and strong up moves continuation possibility is also very much alive but follow up consolidation is firstly required because Nifty closed within next resistance range after lower levels very good consolidation in last 3 weeks. 

Next resistances are between 6130-6180 and once valid break out above 6180 will mean fast and strong rally toward next resistances:-

6265-6292
6320-6358

Expected that finally up moves toward 6265 will be seen after follow up consolidation in next week.

NIFTY-Feb Call Option(6200)-Positional-Buying Trade

NIFTY-Feb CE(6200)-Buy-Positional-SL-04 & TGT-54-CMP-16(Lalit39)

Pre-closing Outlook(21-02-2014)

As today intraday charts are showing more indications of buying therefore expected that Nifty will trade above 6180 in next week after follow up consolidations between 6130-6180.

Mid-session Outlook(21-02-2014)

Strong resistances are between 6130-6180 and selling was seen between this range on 18-02-2014 and 19-02-2014. Most time trading between 6130-6148 today but intraday patterns are not showing any clear pattern therefore some more preparation is required for decisive moves after sustaining beyond 6130-6180. 

Let market prepare and get confirmation through intraday charts patterns formations then will be updated accordingly. sustaining beyond 6130-6180 should be watched for next big moves confirmations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(21-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Lower levels some supports
2- Higher levels some selling
3- Sharp up after more than 1% down European markets opening.
4- Most time trading above 6106
5- Whole day actual trading between 6087-6129

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly almost 6 hours Volatility with lower levels buying and and higher levels selling above 6106. Indian markets out performed global cues and sharply up after more than 1% down opening of European markets therefore a sign of strength also today despite down moves in last hour and closing below 6106.

As mixed pattern formations in first more than 5 hours today above 6106 therefore firstly sustaining beyond 6106 should be watched tomorrow for:-

1- Down moves towards next supports(6045-6065) after sustaining below 6106
2- Firstly consolidation between 6106-6129 after sustaining above 6106 and then 1st sign of any up move after valid break out of 6129.

Sustaining beyond 6106 should be firstly watched tomorrow for above mentioned next moves.

Pre-closing Outlook(20-02-2014)

Volatile markets with mixed(both buying and selling) trading patterns today and now trading below next support levels(6106) and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then next down moves will not be considered therefore sustaining below 6106 should be firstly watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(20-02-2014)

Although Indian markets are more than .50% down at this moment but out performed global cues and good supports seen after opening of much weaker European markets therefore it is a sign of strength and until Nifty will not sustain below today lowest(6106) till then next down moves will not be considered.

Next moves deciding range is 6106-6160 and firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched now for next moves confirmations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Most time trading between 6128-6144
2- Consolidation between 6128-6135
3- Selling patterns formation between 6136-6144
4- Sharp up in last 21 minutes
5- Whole day actual trading between 6126-6160

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Most time trading between 6128-6144 with firstly consolidation patterns formation and good selling also at higher levels therefore some down moves are expected below today lowest(6126) tomorrow despite sharp up in last 21 minutes today.

Pre-closing Outlook(19-02-2014)

Although firstly consolidation patterns formation and now trading near the higher levels of today but good selling also seen therefore firstly some down moves are expected tomorrow below today lowest(6126)

Mid-session Outlook-2(19-02-2014)

Quiet range bound market and most time trading between 6129-6144 with firstly consolidation patterns formation but selling patterns also emerged in last 1 hour therefore valid break of mentioned range should be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(19-02-2014)

As first 2 hours intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns therefore emergence of up moves possibilities above 6140/6180

Post-open Outlook(19-02-2014)

Flat to positive market and preparation for next moves because today trading between immediate resistance range(6130-6180) after last five hours trading between 6110-6141 yesterday. As Bearish Rising Channel formation in last 5 hours up moves yesterday therefore view is cautions and follow up moves with sustaining beyond 6110-6180 will be firstly watched today. 

Expected that Nifty will prepare for next trend between 6110-6180 and sustaining beyond this range will be next big moves confirmations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(19-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly sharp up moves.
2- Last 5 hours up moves with Bearish Rising Channel.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6067-6141

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly sharp up immediately after opening but after that last 5 hours up moves with Bearish Rising Channel therefore some down moves can not be ruled out.  Resistances between 6130-6180 and Nifty traded between this range with mentioned Bearish pattern therefore follow up complete consolidation is must for trading above today highest and sustaining above 6180.

As fresh consolidation is required for sustaining above 6180 and it may take 1/2 sessions therefore intraday trading patterns will be firstly watched and then next moves decisive moves will be updated according to intraday charts formations because fresh selling will mean slipping towards next supports range(6045-6065) also.

Now sustaining beyond 6045-6180 should be watched for next trend confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(18-02-2014)

As was told for in all previous Outlooks same was seen today and Nifty is trading 1% up as well as now trading between next resistance range(6130-6180). As fresh consolidation is required for sustaining above 6180 and it may take 1/2 sessions therefore intraday trading patterns will be firstly watched and then next moves beyond 6130-6180 will be updated accordingly.  

Now sustaining beyond 6130-6180 should be watched for next immediate trend confirmation.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(18-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns formations and supports between 6045-6065 
2- Whole day actual trading between 6040-6080

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Most of the time sideways trading between 6045-6078 with good consolidation and supports between 6045-6065 therefore emergence of up moves expectations in the coming sessions but next immediate resistances are between 6090-6106 therefore complete follow up consolidation is required for sustaining above 6106.

Nifty will remain sideways between following ranges and will prepare for next trend as well as their valid break out will be next trend confirmations:-

1- 6045-6106
2- 5934-6180

Expected that Nifty will consolidate between above mentioned ranges and finally move above 6106/6180 in the coming sessions.

Pre-closing Outlook(17-02-2014)

Although sharp fall immediately after beginning of Interim Budget speech but most of the time sideways trading between 6045-6078. As more indications of buying therefore expectations of up moves above 6078 but valid break out of 6045-6078 should be firstly watched for confirmations because today sentiment is affected by Interim Budget also.

Post-open Outlook(17-02-2014)

Vote on account after 11:00 AM today and not much expectations from its announcements but some volatility can not be ruled out.

View is Bullish

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 17 to Feb 21,2014)

Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358.
9- Higher bottom formation in previous week.

Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 40 Sessions trading between 6130-6415 between 02-12-2013 and 28-01-2014.
2- 18 Sessions trading between 6130-6358 with triple top formations
3- Supports at 200-Day EMA in last 12 sessions.
4- 200-Day EMA(today at 6004)

Conclusions from EOD charts analysis 

Intermediate Term Trend is down,Short term is up and Long Term is sideways through hovering around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6004) in last 12 sessions.  Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358 and sustaining above 6130 is must for maintaining of:-

1- Wave-v of Wave-3.
2- Whole waves structure formation from 5118.85(on 28-08-2013)
3- Intermediate and Long Trem Trend turning up confirmation.

Multiple resistances between 6130-6358 and strongest resistances are at 6358 because triple top formation there. As last 2 weekly candle formation is "Bullish Hammer" therefore fresh up moves beginning possibility strengthened in previous weeks and let Nifty sustain above 6130 then resistances will be updated.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- First 4 hours consolidation pattern formations
2- Support between 5985-5998
3- Consolidation pattern formations during up moves
4- Whole day actual trading between 5985-6056 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As last hour up moves after lower levels consolidation therefore following line is being repeated which was told at 11:45 AM on 14-02-2014 in Mid-session Outlook(14-02-2014):-

"Intraday patterns of today are showing consolidation indications and sustaining above today lowest will mean Short Term up moves towards 6100"

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Pull Back Rally beginning with Weekly Bullish Hammer Candle formation in previous 2 weeks and until Nifty will not sustain below the lowest(5934) of previous couple of week till then next down moves will not be considered. As complete follow up consolidation is must for rally above 6358 therefore expected that coming week will be sideways between 5934-6358 and prepare for next big trend.

As last 2 weekly candle formation is "Bullish Hammer" therefore deeper down moves will not be immediately considered because following supports developed in previous couple of weeks:-

1- 5985-5998
2- 5966-5992
3- 5963-5975
4- 5934-5954

As following immediate resistances therefore follow up consolidation is must for the beginning of fresh rally and confirmation of sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA.

1- 6090-6106
2- 6130-6180

Nifty closed at 6048 in previous week with supports up to 5934 and resistances up to 6180 therefore Nifty will remain sideways between 5934-6180 and prepare for next trend. As following positive technical points therefore view is Bullish and rally continuation is expected after follow up consolidations:-

1- Closing above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6004)
2- Multiple supports developed in previous 2 weeks below 200-Day EMA.
3- Bullish Hammer candle formation in previous 2 weeks. 
4- Higher bottom formation in previous week

Mid-session Outlook(14-02-2014)

Intraday patterns of today are showing consolidation indications and sustaining above today lowest will mean Short Term up moves towards 6100.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(14-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day down moves.
2- Whole day actual trading between 5991-6094

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Sentiment turned depressed today because:- 

1- All the Global markets were trading and closed in Red.
2- Dow's Futures continuously moved down and one time it slipped 80 points.
3- Historical uproar in Parliament today.

As higher levels good selling yesterday and sentiment was dampened since opening today therefore whole day only continuous down moves and testing of next supports below 6000. Next supports are as follows:-

1- 5966-5992
2- 5963-5975
3- 5934-5954

Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6003) will decide next big trend and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then view will be Bullish and rally expectation will remain alive despite today closing at lowest of the day after loosing 1.36% points. Long Term Trend turning down confirmation will be after sustaining below last support range(5934-5954) and firstly sustaining beyond 5934(last support)-6003(200-Day EMA) should be watched.

Indian markets are not trending but sideways between 5934-6106 and Nifty will firstly prepare within it for next trend as well as will take its own time in this process. Valid break out of this range will be next trend confirmation and should be watched.

Pre-closing Outlook(13-02-2014)

Sentiment turned depressed today after all the Global markets trading in Red and Dow's Futures 74 points down as well therefore whole day down moves. Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6003) will decide next trend and sustaining beyond it should be watched in the coming sessions for its confirmations. As multiple supports below it therefore Nifty will not sustain below it easily and following line should be kept in mind which was told in all 3 previous Outlooks:-

now Nifty will remain sideways between 5934-6106 and prepare for next trend,valid break out of this range will be next trend confirmation.