Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(04-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- First 3 hours selling between 6059-6074.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last 3 hours. 
3- Whole day actual trading between 5995-6074

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly 3 hours selling and after that last 3 hours continuous down moves as well as slipping below 6000 where 200-Day EMA also lying therefore emergence of Long Term Trend turning down risk. As last 3 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore first signal of down moves stopping and Pull Back Rally as well. If follow up consolidation develops near about 200-Day EMA then correction completion will be considered after sustaining above 200-Day EMA   

Finally sustaining beyond 200-Day EMA(today at 5999) should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for the confirmations of Long Term trend. 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Feb 03 to Feb 07,2014)

Nifty-EOD Chart (31-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions between 6130-6415.
9- 40 Sessions trading between 6130-6415 between 02-12-2013 and 28-01-2014.
10- 4 Previous sessions trading below the lowest of 40 sessions range
11- 200-Day EMA(today at 6000)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6415 and slipped below the lowest of Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95) with last 4 trading and closing below the lowest of 40 sessions range.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling patterns formation between 6086-6097
3- Whole day actual trading between 6068-6097

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As good selling patterns formation at higher levels therefore firstly down moves are expected despite closing near the higher levels of the day and until Nifty will not sustain above the highest(6,097.85) of the day till then next up moves will not be considered.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Intermediate Term and Short Term trends are down but Long Term trend is still up and that will be down after sustaining below its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6000). As market is in downward direction and 40 Sessions trading range has been broken down in previous week therefore last hopes of Bulls are as follows:-  

1- 200-Day EMA(today at 6000)
2- Bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45)

Slipping below above 2 levels can not be ruled out but sustaining below 6000/5972 is must for trend reversal and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions because follow 2 fundamentals will decide next trend and Indian markets will prepare for Long Term trend amid following 2 contradictory news:-

1- Tapering of QE3 by $10 billion per month
2- Narendrea Modi clear victory in Lok Sabha Elections

Narendrea Modi clear victory will mean strong rally and much higher levels above all time high but implications of QE3 tapering has to be seen and understood also.

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-02-2014

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6131
R2 6114
R1 6101
Avg 6084
S1 6071
S2 6054
S3 6041

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6119     Trgt 2
H5 6112     Trgt 1
H4 6105     Long breakout
H3 6097     Go Short
H2 6094
H1 6091
L1 6086
L2 6083
L3 6080     Long
L4 6072     Short Breakout
L5 6065     Trgt 1
L6 6058     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-02-2014

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6178
R2 6156
R1 6134
Avg 6112
S1 6090
S2 6068
S3 6046

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6156     Trgt 2
H5 6146     Trgt 1
H4 6136     Long breakout
H3 6124     Go Short
H2 6120
H1 6116
L1 6107
L2 6103
L3 6099     Long
L4 6087     Short Breakout
L5 6077     Trgt 1
L6 6067     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-02-2014

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 10465
R2 10390
R1 10333
Avg 10258
S1 10201
S2 10126
S3 10069

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10409     Trgt 2
H5 10378     Trgt 1
H4 10348     Long breakout
H3 10312     Go Short
H2 10300
H1 10288
L1 10263
L2 10251
L3 10239     Long
L4 10203     Short Breakout
L5 10173     Trgt 1
L6 10142     Trgt 2

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly huge gap down opening after FOMC tapering decision.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
3- Sharp up in last hour.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6027-6082

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

All the Asian markets moved into deep Red after the tapering decision of FOMC yesterday therefore gap down opening in Indian markets and more than 5 hours continuous down moves but in Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves in last hour.

Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is today at 5999 and consolidation pattern of  Bullish Falling Channel seen just above it today which is a strong signal of supports. Follow up moves and sustaining beyond today lowest(6027) as well as 200-Day EMA(5999) should be watched for the survival of Long Term Trend.

Finally sustaining above 200-Day EMA after follow up consolidation will mean Wave-3 correction completion and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions because sustaining below 200-Day EMA will mean breaking down of Waves structure and resultant exercise of Waves recounting.

At present only correction is being understood and expected that it will finally complete near about 200-Day EMA. 

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(30-Jan-2014)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.97
Nifty P/E Ratio(30-Jan-2014): 17.65
Nifty P/B Ratio(30-Jan-2014):  2.87
Dividend Yield (30-Jan-2014):  1.54

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :   838
BSE Declines : 1,749
NSE Advances :   352
NSE Declines : 1,086

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 125,150(33.59%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- 793,300(%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 439,950(55.99%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- 842,400(21.29%)

Nifty- 6100  CE(Feb)- 1,129,550(120.16%)
Nifty- 6100  PE(Feb)- 527,000(24.95%)

Nifty- 6200  CE(Feb)- 571,900(31.72%)
Nifty- 6200  PE(Feb)- -241,050(-10.17%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20,498.25(-149.05 Points & -0.72%)
Nifty- closed at 6,073.70(-46.55 Points & -0.76%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,371.55(-102.55 Points & -1.37%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,127.95(-50.15 Points & -1.58%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2014

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6149
R2 6115
R1 6094
Avg 6060
S1 6039
S2 6005
S3 5984

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6128     Trgt 2
H5 6115     Trgt 1
H4 6103     Long breakout
H3 6088     Go Short
H2 6083
H1 6078
L1 6067
L2 6062
L3 6057     Long
L4 6042     Short Breakout
L5 6030     Trgt 1
L6 6017     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2014

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6174
R2 6143
R1 6123
Avg 6092
S1 6072
S2 6041
S3 6021

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6154     Trgt 2
H5 6142     Trgt 1
H4 6131     Long breakout
H3 6117     Go Short
H2 6112
H1 6107
L1 6098
L2 6093
L3 6088     Long
L4 6074     Short Breakout
L5 6063     Trgt 1
L6 6051     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2014

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 10561
R2 10468
R1 10346
Avg 10253
S1 10131
S2 10038
S3 9916

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10440     Trgt 2
H5 10391     Trgt 1
H4 10342     Long breakout
H3 10283     Go Short
H2 10263
H1 10243
L1 10204
L2 10184
L3 10164     Long
L4 10105     Short Breakout
L5 10056     Trgt 1
L6 10007     Trgt 2

Post-open Outlook(30-01-2014)

Although the news of $10 billion tapering by FOMC was globally well discounted but all the Asian markets moved into Red after same decision yesterday night and Indian markets are also participating Global weakness through more than 1% down trading. 30 sessions trading range(6130-6415) broken down today and next supports are lying at 200-Day EMA(today at 5999),its testing can not be ruled out. 

Wave-3 is on and recent down moves are being considered its correction only and finally sustaining beyond 200-Day EMA should be watched for Long Term Trend confirmation which is still up  

Pre-open Outlook(30-01-2014)

As all the Asian markets are in deep Red after the tapering decision of FOMC yesterday therefore gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets. Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is today at 5999 and its testing can not be ruled out.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(30-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6159-6169
2- First 5 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
3- Sharp down moves in last hour
4- Whole day actual trading between 6121-6169

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the lowest levels of the day but first 5 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore finally up moves are expected in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook-2(29-01-2014)

Down moves seen after higher levels selling but some supports also seen above 6140. Today and previous 2 sessions trading between 6086-6170 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling therefore its valid break out should be firstly watched for next big trend confirmations and that may be seen on Expiry day tomorrow because market will react on FOMC announcements also

Mid-session Outlook(29-01-2014)

Although good gains immediately after opening but selling at higher levels today and valid break out of 6086-6170 should be firstly watched now for next moves confirmations because both buying and selling seen between this range today and yesterday.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(29-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Pre RBI Credit policy mixed Patterns between 6142-6163.
2- Sharp fall after RBI Credit policy.  
2- Consolidation patterns formation and supports between 6086-6122.
4- Last more than 4 hours up moves with consolidation and Bullish Falling Channel formations.
5- Whole day actual trading between 6086-6163.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although sharp fall after RBI hiking Repo rate by 25 BPS but after that lower levels good supports and consolidation as well as last more than 4 hours up moves with consolidation and Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore strong signal of up moves in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook-3(28-01-2014)

Lower levels consolidation patterns formation and supports seen today

Mid-session Outlook-2(28-01-2014)

Although most crucial support at 6130 broken down forcefully and now trading below it also but confirmation of sustaining below 6130 is required yet for testing of Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6201) because broken down was Repo rate hikes news led. 

Mid-session Outlook(28-01-2014)

As RBI hikes Repo rate by 25 BPS and defied all expectation of pause therefore most crucial support at 6130 broken down forcefully. Now last hope for Bulls is non broken down of Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6201) and its testing can not be ruled out.  

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(28-01-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
2- Selling patterns formation between 6170-6178 
3- Whole day actual trading between 6130-6188

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly most depressed sentiment led huge gap down opening but after that whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of correction completion signal despite closing near the lowest level of the day.

Supports at 6130 was told more than 50 times in previous sessions and today lowest was at 6130.25 despite most dampened market mood. As Bullish Falling Channel like consolidation pattern seen therefore sustaining beyond 6130 should be firstly watched because slipping below 6130 can not be ruled out if sentiment remains depressed.  

Long Term Trend is still up and previous 2 sessions down moves will be understood only correction and expected that Nifty will not sustain below its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5996) as well as finally Impulsive Wave-3 rally will remain continued above all time high.

Now only correction completion confirmation is required for fresh rally beginning and expected that market will get supports between 5996-6130 as well as Nifty will not sustain below 5996 in worst sentimental situation also.

Let on going consolidation complete then rally will start and firstly sustaining beyond 6130 as well as finally sustaining beyond 5996 should be watched for correction confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(27-01-2014)

As all European markets could not sustain and slipped sharply after flat to positive opening therefore sentiment dampened further and Nifty is hovering around 6157 after slipping from higher levels. Next supports are above 6130 and deeper correction will be seen after sustaining below it therefore finally sustaining beyond 6130-6157 should be watched for correction completion/continuation confirmations.