Although most crucial support at 6130 broken down forcefully and now trading below it also but confirmation of sustaining below 6130 is required yet for testing of Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6201) because broken down was Repo rate hikes news led.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook(28-01-2014)
As RBI hikes Repo rate by 25 BPS and defied all expectation of pause therefore most crucial support at 6130 broken down forcefully. Now last hope for Bulls is non broken down of Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6201) and its testing can not be ruled out.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(28-01-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jan-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
2- Selling patterns formation between 6170-6178
3- Whole day actual trading between 6130-6188
Firstly most depressed sentiment led huge gap down opening but after that whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of correction completion signal despite closing near the lowest level of the day.
Supports at 6130 was told more than 50 times in previous sessions and today lowest was at 6130.25 despite most dampened market mood. As Bullish Falling Channel like consolidation pattern seen therefore sustaining beyond 6130 should be firstly watched because slipping below 6130 can not be ruled out if sentiment remains depressed.
Long Term Trend is still up and previous 2 sessions down moves will be understood only correction and expected that Nifty will not sustain below its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5996) as well as finally Impulsive Wave-3 rally will remain continued above all time high.
Now only correction completion confirmation is required for fresh rally beginning and expected that market will get supports between 5996-6130 as well as Nifty will not sustain below 5996 in worst sentimental situation also.
Let on going consolidation complete then rally will start and firstly sustaining beyond 6130 as well as finally sustaining beyond 5996 should be watched for correction confirmations.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
2- Selling patterns formation between 6170-6178
3- Whole day actual trading between 6130-6188
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Firstly most depressed sentiment led huge gap down opening but after that whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of correction completion signal despite closing near the lowest level of the day.
Supports at 6130 was told more than 50 times in previous sessions and today lowest was at 6130.25 despite most dampened market mood. As Bullish Falling Channel like consolidation pattern seen therefore sustaining beyond 6130 should be firstly watched because slipping below 6130 can not be ruled out if sentiment remains depressed.
Long Term Trend is still up and previous 2 sessions down moves will be understood only correction and expected that Nifty will not sustain below its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5996) as well as finally Impulsive Wave-3 rally will remain continued above all time high.
Now only correction completion confirmation is required for fresh rally beginning and expected that market will get supports between 5996-6130 as well as Nifty will not sustain below 5996 in worst sentimental situation also.
Let on going consolidation complete then rally will start and firstly sustaining beyond 6130 as well as finally sustaining beyond 5996 should be watched for correction confirmations.
Mid-session Outlook-2(27-01-2014)
As all European markets could not sustain and slipped sharply after flat to positive opening therefore sentiment dampened further and Nifty is hovering around 6157 after slipping from higher levels. Next supports are above 6130 and deeper correction will be seen after sustaining below it therefore finally sustaining beyond 6130-6157 should be watched for correction completion/continuation confirmations.
Mid-session Outlook(27-01-2014)
Although firstly slipping after huge gap down opening but today intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns formations above 6157. As next supports above 6130 and today consolidation above it therefore last Friday started correction completion first signal generation today. Follow up moves and finally sustaining above 6157 will mean up moves in the coming sesions towards next resistances between 6267-6294.
Pre-open Outlook(27-01-2014)
As all the Asian markets are 1% to 2.65% down therefore sentiment is completely depressed today morning and huge gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets. Sustaining beyond 27 sessions lowest(6130) should be watched now for first strong signal of deeper correction and trend reversal confirmation will be finally sustaining beyond Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5995).
Detailed technical analysis have already been updated in previous topic.
Detailed technical analysis have already been updated in previous topic.
Volatile Week between 6130-6415
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 27 to Jan 31,2014)
Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Jan-2014):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 with descending triangle pattern formation in last 27 sessions between 6130-6415.
9- 200-Day EMA(today at 5995)
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Long Term trend is up,Short Term trend is down and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways for the last 27 sessions between 6130-6415 with descending triangle pattern formation and valid break out of this range will decide next big trend.
Wave-v of Wave-3 is on for next rally above all time high but this Wave has not shown required strength and turned range bound because next Union Govt. stability after Parliamentary Elections has turned at stake due to the possibility of BJP votes cutting by Aam Admi Party and resultant expectations of weaker Government formations after Union Elections-2014.
As opinion polls results in previous week have boosted BJP’s chances in 2014 Lok Sabha elections therefore expected that now Nifty will remain range bound between 27 sessions trading range(6130-6415) and prepare for next decisive moves. Wave-3 continuation towards minimum target of Nifty at 6724.60. Its calculation has already been updated in following topic on 21-10-2013:-
Now expected that Nifty will prepare for 6724.60 between 6130-6415 and next week may be highly volatile because:-
1- Week may begin will deep down moves because 2% crash in US markets last Friday.
2- RBI Credit Policy on 28-01-2014 and expectation no change in Repo Rates.
3- FOMC mmet on 28-29 January and Indian markets will react on its announcements 30-01-2014 which is derivative expiry day.
Long Term trend is up and Wave-3 is on toward 6724.60 therefore expected that Indian markets will prepare between 6130-6415 for up moves above 6415 in the coming volatile week.
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Mid-session Outlook(24-01-2014)
Indian markets are not trending but sideways for the last 39 sessions between 6130-6415 and today trading within 1st strong indication range(6232-6356) after gap down opening due to depressing Global cues. As Dow's Futures slipped 48 points in last half hour and now trading 54 points down therefore Indian markets slipped and now trading the lowest levels of today.
Very Short Term correction started today and firstly sustaining beyond next support(6232) should be watched for its continuation/completion.
Pre-open Outlook(24-01-2014)
Dow Jones closed 175 points down yesterday therefore sentiment may be depressed today morning and resultant weaker opening will be seen in Indian markets.
Finally sustaining beyond following trading ranges should be watched for:-
1- next trend 1st strong indication:- 6232-6356
2- next trend confirmations:- 6130-6387
Finally sustaining beyond following trading ranges should be watched for:-
1- next trend 1st strong indication:- 6232-6356
2- next trend confirmations:- 6130-6387
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(24-01-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jan-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 6325-6335
2- Up moves with consolidations.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6325-6355
Although all the Global markets were in negative zone and some were in deep Red as well as Dow Futures was also down by more than 70 points but Indian markets outperformed and traded first 3 hours with minor losses. As firstly lower levels and after that up moves in consolidation patterns therefore emergence of rally continuation hopes.
Wave-v of Wave-3 is on for next rally above all time high but this Wave has not shown required strength and turned range bound because next Union Govt. stability after Parliamentary Elections had turned doubtful due to BJP votes cutting by Aam Admi Party and resultant expectations of weaker Government formations after Union Elections-2014. As Aam Admi Party popularity has reduced sharply due to Arvind Kejriwal's dharna and his governance incompetency therefore again emergence of strong Government formations under the leadership on Narendra Modi and resultant Indian markets has started to show strength and started higher levels consolidations.
26 sessions trading between 6130-6415 with following Resistances positions:-
1- 1st Resistance between 6324-6356
2- 2nd Resistance between 6360-6387
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 6325-6335
2- Up moves with consolidations.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6325-6355
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although all the Global markets were in negative zone and some were in deep Red as well as Dow Futures was also down by more than 70 points but Indian markets outperformed and traded first 3 hours with minor losses. As firstly lower levels and after that up moves in consolidation patterns therefore emergence of rally continuation hopes.
Wave-v of Wave-3 is on for next rally above all time high but this Wave has not shown required strength and turned range bound because next Union Govt. stability after Parliamentary Elections had turned doubtful due to BJP votes cutting by Aam Admi Party and resultant expectations of weaker Government formations after Union Elections-2014. As Aam Admi Party popularity has reduced sharply due to Arvind Kejriwal's dharna and his governance incompetency therefore again emergence of strong Government formations under the leadership on Narendra Modi and resultant Indian markets has started to show strength and started higher levels consolidations.
26 sessions trading between 6130-6415 with following Resistances positions:-
1- 1st Resistance between 6324-6356
2- 2nd Resistance between 6360-6387
1st Resistance(6356) has almost been cleared today with today highest formation at 6355.60 but more follow up consolidation is required and once sustaining above 6387 will mean Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation above all time high.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-01-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Jan-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Almost 4 hours trading with mixed patterns between 6310-6330
2- Whole day actual trading between 6288-6349.
Although almost 4 hours trading with mixed patterns between 6310-6330 and break out of this range in last hour but confirmation is firstly required through sustaining above 6330 for any decisive up moves and it should be firstly watched tomorrow.
Indian markets are not trending but sideways for the last 25 sessions between 6130-6415 with following technical positions:-
1- 1st Resistance between 6324-6356
2- 2nd Resistance between 6360-6387
3- 1st Support between 6232-6266
4- 2nd Support between 6130-6186
Following trading ranges should be watched for:-
1- next trend 1st strong indication:- 6232-6356
2- next trend confirmations:- 6130-6387
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Almost 4 hours trading with mixed patterns between 6310-6330
2- Whole day actual trading between 6288-6349.
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although almost 4 hours trading with mixed patterns between 6310-6330 and break out of this range in last hour but confirmation is firstly required through sustaining above 6330 for any decisive up moves and it should be firstly watched tomorrow.
Indian markets are not trending but sideways for the last 25 sessions between 6130-6415 with following technical positions:-
1- 1st Resistance between 6324-6356
2- 2nd Resistance between 6360-6387
3- 1st Support between 6232-6266
4- 2nd Support between 6130-6186
Following trading ranges should be watched for:-
1- next trend 1st strong indication:- 6232-6356
2- next trend confirmations:- 6130-6387
Mid-session Outlook(22-01-2014)
Following line was told in previous Outlook yesterday:-
As was told 100% same happened and Nifty slipped below 6298 but recovered also from lower levels after lowest formation at 6287.45. As today up moves are without force therefore finally down moves are expected after follow up selling and following range should be watched for:-
1- next trend 1st strong indication:- 6232-6356
2- next trend confirmations:- 6130-6387
slipping below 5298 and very Short Term correction is expected tomorrow
As was told 100% same happened and Nifty slipped below 6298 but recovered also from lower levels after lowest formation at 6287.45. As today up moves are without force therefore finally down moves are expected after follow up selling and following range should be watched for:-
1- next trend 1st strong indication:- 6232-6356
2- next trend confirmations:- 6130-6387
Very Short Term correction on cards
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(22-01-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-Jan-2014):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 6321-6330
2- Selling between 6314-6325
3- Supports between 6298-6305
3- Whole day actual trading between 6298-6330
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although minor supports at lower levels but good selling at higher levels today therefore finally slipping below 5298 and very Short Term correction is expected tomorrow.
NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6200)-Positional-Buying Trade
NIFTY-Jan PE(6200)-Buy-Positional-SL-04 & TGT-49-CMP-15.25(Lalit39)
Mid-session Outlook(21-01-2014)
Sideways quiet market with first 2 hours selling and some supports and recovery also from lower levels also in last 1 hour therefore expected that Nifty will trade few more time within today trading range(6298-6330) but finally slipping below 5298 is possible because most time selling patterns formations today.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(21-01-2014)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Jan-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- More than 5 hours today trading between 6274-6306
2- Selling patterns formation between 6296-6303
3- Consolidation between 6274-6286
4- Selling patterns formation between 6301-6306
5- Whole day actual trading between 6244-6306
23 sessions trading between 6130-6415 with following technical positions:-
1- 1st Resistance between 6324-6356
2- 2nd Resistance between 6360-6387
3- 1st Support between 6232-6266
4- 2nd Support between 6130-6186
More than 5 hours today trading between 6274-6306 with higher levels selling and lower levels buying therefore valid break out of this range will be next very Short Term moves confirmation. As multiple resistances above and multiple supports below above mentioned more than 5 hours today trading range therefore follow up consolidation is required for sustaining above 6387 and all time high as well as in the same manner complete selling is also must for sustaining below 23 sessions lowest(6130).
Only intraday volatility seen in last 2 sessions and Nifty could not sustain above last Thursday selling range(6300-6346) and follow up selling also seen just below it between 6296-6306 today therefore view is not Bullish despite today closing near the highest of today.
Indian markets are not trending but only sideways therefore next trend will get confirmations after sustaining beyond last 23 sessions range 6130-6387 and sustaining beyond above mentioned supports and resistances should be used for next decisive big trend 1st indication and final confirmation.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- More than 5 hours today trading between 6274-6306
2- Selling patterns formation between 6296-6303
3- Consolidation between 6274-6286
4- Selling patterns formation between 6301-6306
5- Whole day actual trading between 6244-6306
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
23 sessions trading between 6130-6415 with following technical positions:-
1- 1st Resistance between 6324-6356
2- 2nd Resistance between 6360-6387
3- 1st Support between 6232-6266
4- 2nd Support between 6130-6186
More than 5 hours today trading between 6274-6306 with higher levels selling and lower levels buying therefore valid break out of this range will be next very Short Term moves confirmation. As multiple resistances above and multiple supports below above mentioned more than 5 hours today trading range therefore follow up consolidation is required for sustaining above 6387 and all time high as well as in the same manner complete selling is also must for sustaining below 23 sessions lowest(6130).
Only intraday volatility seen in last 2 sessions and Nifty could not sustain above last Thursday selling range(6300-6346) and follow up selling also seen just below it between 6296-6306 today therefore view is not Bullish despite today closing near the highest of today.
Indian markets are not trending but only sideways therefore next trend will get confirmations after sustaining beyond last 23 sessions range 6130-6387 and sustaining beyond above mentioned supports and resistances should be used for next decisive big trend 1st indication and final confirmation.
Mid-session Outlook(20-01-2014)
Indian markets are not trending but sideways and only intraday volatility is being seen therefore last Friday down moves and today up moves. Indian markets are not not prepared for any side decisive moves and being prepare for next decisive trend therefore next trend deciding ranges have already been been updated in previous Outlook yesterday.
As last 4 hours intraday charts are showing consolidation indications between 6274-6304 therefore emergence of hopes for Bulls and 1st strong signal of decisive up moves will be after sustaining above previous week highest(6346),should be firstly watched for confirmations.
As last 4 hours intraday charts are showing consolidation indications between 6274-6304 therefore emergence of hopes for Bulls and 1st strong signal of decisive up moves will be after sustaining above previous week highest(6346),should be firstly watched for confirmations.
RIL-Jan Put Option(880)-Positional Buying of 16-01-2014-Covering
RIL-Jan PE(880)-Bought on 16-01-2014-Cover and book profit immediately-CMP-17.60(Lalit39)
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Jan 20 to Jan 24,2014)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Jan-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 with descending triangle pattern formation in last 22 sessions between 6130-6415.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Wave-v of Wave-3 is on for next rally above all time high but this Wave has not shown required strength and turned range bound because next Union Govt. stability after Parliamentary Elections has turned at stake due to the possibility of BJP votes cutting by Aam Admi Party and resultant expectations of weaker Government formations after Union Elections-2014.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jan-2014):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 8320-6338
2- Fast down
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Support between 6286-6391
5- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
6- Steep Fall
7- Last more than trading with mixed trading patterns between 6247-6272
8- Whole day actual trading between 6247-6338
(All levels are Jan Fut)
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Almost 6 hours down moves with higher levels good selling and minor consolidation as well as closing near the lower levels of the day therefore emergence of deeper correction possibility. As last more than 2 hours trading with mixed trading patterns between 6247-6272 therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched for the confirmation of deeper correction possibility.
Long Term trend is up,Short Term trend is down and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways for the last 22 sessions between 6130-6415 with descending triangle pattern formation and valid break out of this range will decide next big trend. As higher levels selling in last 2 sessions therefore until Nifty will not sustain above previous week highest(6346) till then next up moves will not be considered. Although markets recovered from lower levels in previous week but on the back of above expectations quarterly results and intraday selling was seen within 6165-6235 between 06-01-2014-10-01-0=2014 also therefore if follow up selling develop in the beginning of next week then sharp fall will be seen therefore complete consolidation is firstly required for any rally.
As 22 sessions range bound market between 6130-6415 with descending triangle pattern therefore Nifty has to prepare for next trend and decisive moves within it and firstly sustaining beyond mentioned triangle and after that finally mentioned range should be watched for next next big trend confirmations.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 with descending triangle pattern formation in last 22 sessions between 6130-6415.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Wave-v of Wave-3 is on for next rally above all time high but this Wave has not shown required strength and turned range bound because next Union Govt. stability after Parliamentary Elections has turned at stake due to the possibility of BJP votes cutting by Aam Admi Party and resultant expectations of weaker Government formations after Union Elections-2014.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jan-2014):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8320-6338
2- Fast down
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Support between 6286-6391
5- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
6- Steep Fall
7- Last more than trading with mixed trading patterns between 6247-6272
8- Whole day actual trading between 6247-6338
(All levels are Jan Fut)
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Almost 6 hours down moves with higher levels good selling and minor consolidation as well as closing near the lower levels of the day therefore emergence of deeper correction possibility. As last more than 2 hours trading with mixed trading patterns between 6247-6272 therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched for the confirmation of deeper correction possibility.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Long Term trend is up,Short Term trend is down and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways for the last 22 sessions between 6130-6415 with descending triangle pattern formation and valid break out of this range will decide next big trend. As higher levels selling in last 2 sessions therefore until Nifty will not sustain above previous week highest(6346) till then next up moves will not be considered. Although markets recovered from lower levels in previous week but on the back of above expectations quarterly results and intraday selling was seen within 6165-6235 between 06-01-2014-10-01-0=2014 also therefore if follow up selling develop in the beginning of next week then sharp fall will be seen therefore complete consolidation is firstly required for any rally.
As 22 sessions range bound market between 6130-6415 with descending triangle pattern therefore Nifty has to prepare for next trend and decisive moves within it and firstly sustaining beyond mentioned triangle and after that finally mentioned range should be watched for next next big trend confirmations.
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