Rally continuation and fast up moves after consolidation between Gap resistance(5810-5819) and sustaining above it also. Next strong resistance is between 5896-5938 and once sustaining above it will mean confirmation of Wave-2 correction completion and up moves above the top of Wave-1(6142.50).
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Crucial Technical Gaps break out is must for Next Big Trend
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Oct-2013):-
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1- Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations in 14 sessions
2- Neckline at 5810
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations and its Neckline broken down on 30-09-2013 as well as last 2 sessions closing below it. Technically 3 days or minimum 3% closing below Neckline is required for valid break out confirmation of Neckline and it has not happened yet.
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Oct-2013):-
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1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(5580.95 on 03-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5318.90 on 04-09-2013)
4- Wave-3(5957.25 on 16-09-2013)
5- Wave-4(5798.15 on 16-09-2013)
6- Wave-5(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
7- 'ABC' Correction continuation.
8- Wave-A(5811.10 on 25-09-2013)
9- Wave-B(5917.65 on 26-09-2013)
10- Wave-C bottom formation at 5700.95 on 01-10-2013.
11- Bullish Hammer formation on 01-10-2013.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
'ABC' Correction continuation and Wave-C bottom formation at 5700.95 on 01-10-2013 but same day good recovery after lower levels supports also even after negative news of 'Shut Down in USA'. As Bullish Hammer Candle formation on 01-10-2013 also therefore sustaining below Wave-C bottom is also required for further correction continuation.
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Oct-2013):-
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1- 200 Day SMA at 5840
2- 200 Day EMA at 5751
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Long Term trend decider 200 Day SMA broken down but Long Term trend decider another average 200 Day EMA has not been broken yet and closing above it on 01-10-2013. Sustaining below 200 Day EMA is must and firstly required for deeper correction.
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Oct-2013):-
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1- Gap resistance between 5810-5819
2- Gap support between 5689-5738
3- Gap support between 5460-5553
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Nifty closed at 5780.05 on 01-10-2013 which is between both next Gap support and next Gap resistance.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Oct-2013):-
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1- Lower levels supports at 5701 after USA Shut Down news.
2- Whole day up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5701-5786
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Lower levels supports and panic bottom formation after USA Shut Down news and whole day up moves also but in Bearish Rising Channel therefore both Bullish and Bearish intraday formations and sustaining beyond today trading range(5701-5786) will be next trend first indication.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
As 'ABC' correction begun after completion of 5 waves of 16 sessions strong rally(5119-6142) therefore correction of whole rally is being seen. Good supports seen at lower levels on 01-10-2013 even after negative news of 'Shut Down in USA' and Bullish Hammer Candle formation also therefore it is correction completion first signal and sustaining below lowest of same day(5701) is must for correction continuation indication.
Nifty closed at 5780.05 on 01-10-2013 with both Bullish and Bearish intraday patterns formations and both deeper correction signals through Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern and correction completion signal also on 01-10-2013 through lower levels good supports therefore next trend more preparations and formations are required for next trend formations and decisive moves.
Nifty previous closing is between next Gap resistance(5810-5819) and Gap support(5689-5738) and technical positions are mixed therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next trend and one side moves between 5689-5819 and valid break out of this range will decide:-
1- Rally after correction completion above 5819 or
2- Trend reversal below 5689.
Mid-session Outlook(01-10-2013)
Panic bottom formtaion after USA Shut Down news and recovery from lower levels but that will be understood only Pull Back Rally at this moment. As Neckline(5810) of 14 sessions Bearish Head and Shoulders broken down yesterday with gap(5810-5819) down opening therefore this range will be next resistance and any decisive up move will be understood after sustaining above 5819. Next gap support is between 5689-5738 and good support seen between it today at 5701 therefore next Long Term Trend deciding range is 5689-5819 and Nifty will prepare for big moves within this range because Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is lying between this range at 5751.
Technically Indian markets are not prepared for any side big moves because lower levels supports today after Bullish Falling Channel formations yesterday but Bearish Head and Shoulders formantions in previous 14 sessions also therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next trend between 5689-5819 and valid break out of this range will decide:-
1- Rally after correction completion above 5819 or
2- Trend reversal below 5689.
Technically Indian markets are not prepared for any side big moves because lower levels supports today after Bullish Falling Channel formations yesterday but Bearish Head and Shoulders formantions in previous 14 sessions also therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next trend between 5689-5819 and valid break out of this range will decide:-
1- Rally after correction completion above 5819 or
2- Trend reversal below 5689.
Let market prepare and intraday charts complete its patterns then will be updated according to its formations.
Post-open Outlook(01-10-2013)
High volatility immediately after opening due to 'Shut Down news from USA'. As per our view we should not be panic because things will normalize there very shortly.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(01-10-2013)
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1- Without force down moves with Bullish Falling Channel formations.
2- High volatility in last 2 hours
3- Whole day trading between 5718-5810
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
High volatility in last 2 hours and closing below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5751) therefore Long Term up Trend is at stake but its survival hopes are still alive because today Whole day without force down moves with Bullish Falling Channel formations as well as today closing near about higher levels of next gap support range(5689-5738).
Firstly sustaining beyond 5738 should be watched tomorrow because once sustaining below it will mean breaking down confirmation of 200 Day EMA(5751) and Neckline of 14 sessions Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern(5810). It should be kept in mind that high possibility of trend reversal also after sustaining below 5738.
Mid-session Outlook-2(30-09-2013)
When Nifty was trading near the lower levels of today at 5793 then following lines were told at 01:18 PM in previous Outlook:-
1- market is slipping continuously but without required force
2- intraday charts are are also not showing as such selling patterns
3- some volatility can not be ruled out
Nifty traded at 5814 after recovery from lower levels and it will be understood only intraday volatility at this moment as well as sustaining beyond 5738-5810 should be firstly watched also because today first 4 hour down moves are without required force and with Bullish Falling Channel formations.
1- market is slipping continuously but without required force
2- intraday charts are are also not showing as such selling patterns
3- some volatility can not be ruled out
Nifty traded at 5814 after recovery from lower levels and it will be understood only intraday volatility at this moment as well as sustaining beyond 5738-5810 should be firstly watched also because today first 4 hour down moves are without required force and with Bullish Falling Channel formations.
Mid-session Outlook(30-09-2013)
Both crucial levels(5810 and 5779) broken down after gap down opening and market is slipping continuously but without required force and intraday charts are are also not showing as such selling patterns therefore some volatility can not be ruled out and will be better to watch sustaining beyond 5738-5810 for Long Term Trend confirmations
Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations on Intraday Charts
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Sep 30 to Oct 04,2013
Following topic was posted with detailed analysis on 22-09-2013:-
Followng conclusive lines were told in above topic:-
Nifty will prepare for next trend between 5779-6140 in the coming week/weeks and finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next trend confirmations.
As was told same happened in previous week and Nifty traded whole ween between 5811-5989 as well as prepared for next trend.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Sep 10 to Sep 27,2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations in last 14 sessions
2- Neckline at 5810
Conclusions from 14 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Gap up strong opening on 10-09-2013 but Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations with Neckline at 5810 in last 14 sessions trading between 5810-6142. Now next big trend decider is Neckline(5810) and its breaking down will mean sharp down.
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Sep-2013):-
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1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(5580.95 on 03-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5318.90 on 04-09-2013)
4- Wave-3(5957.25 on 16-09-2013)
5- Wave-4(5798.15 on 16-09-2013)
6- Wave-5(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
7- Correction continuation.
8- 200 Day SMA at 5841
8- 200 Day EMA at 5751
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
As correction beginning after 5 waves completion therefore correction of whole rally between 5118.85-6142.50 is being seen and its continuation is expected in the coming week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Correction continuation with Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations at the top of rally and it means high possibility of deeper correction,its confirmation will be after valid break down of Neckline at 5810. Certainly good selling at high levels in previous sessions and once sustaining below 5810 will mean sharp down moves.
Short Term Trend is down,Intermediate Term Trend will be will be down below 5810 and Long Term Trend will be down after sustaining below 200 Day EMA(5751). Although next gap support(5689-5738) is just below 200 Day EMA(5751) but good selling at higher levels therefore its testing is possible in the coming week and trend reversal will be considered after sustaining below 5689.
Good selling at higher levels in previous week and Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations on intraday charts in last 14 sessions also therefore high possibility of slipping below 5810 as well as deeper correction.
Pre-closing Outlook(27-09-2013)
Down moves but without selling patterns and on the back of weakening Indian Rupee as well as more than 40 points down Dow's Futures therefore next trend confirmation is must through valid break out of levels which have been updated in Mid-session Outlook(27-09-2013).
Mid-session Outlook-2(27-09-2013)
Although not sustaining at higher levels and slipping after some recovery from lower levels but today intraday patterns are not showing any side clear formations therefore valid break out of 5846-5905 should be watched for next moves first indication.
Mid-session Outlook(27-09-2013)
Range bound market between following 2 ranges with lower levels buying and higher levels selling also:-
1- 5811-6033
2- 5779-6140
Next trend first indication will be after valid break out of 1st range and confirmation will be after sustaining beyond 2nd range. Today down moves after selling in previous sessions and now trading near the lower levels of today but some supports also seen therefore some up moves are possible
1- 5811-6033
2- 5779-6140
Next trend first indication will be after valid break out of 1st range and confirmation will be after sustaining beyond 2nd range. Today down moves after selling in previous sessions and now trading near the lower levels of today but some supports also seen therefore some up moves are possible
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(27-09-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Sep-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 5898-5917
2- Selling between 5887-5896
3- Whole day actual trading between 5864-5917
Although Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day after loosing most intraday gains but when Indian markets were trading near the higher levels of the day then following lines were told at 02:28 PM in Mid-session Outlook-2(26-09-2013):-
Firstly higher levels good selling and after that closing near the lower levels of the day today therefore more down moves are expected. Follow up selling and sustaining below following supports will mean steep fall and deeper correction as well as its possibility turned higher today:-
1- 5811-5835
2- 5779-5810
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1- Selling between 5898-5917
2- Selling between 5887-5896
3- Whole day actual trading between 5864-5917
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day after loosing most intraday gains but when Indian markets were trading near the higher levels of the day then following lines were told at 02:28 PM in Mid-session Outlook-2(26-09-2013):-
Although Nifty is trading near the higher levels of the day and .52% up also at this moment but today intraday charts patterns are showing selling formations.
Firstly higher levels good selling and after that closing near the lower levels of the day today therefore more down moves are expected. Follow up selling and sustaining below following supports will mean steep fall and deeper correction as well as its possibility turned higher today:-
1- 5811-5835
2- 5779-5810
Mid-session Outlook-2(26-09-2013)
Although Nifty is trading near the higher levels of the day and .52% up also at this moment but today intraday charts patterns are showing selling formations.
Mid-session Outlook(26-09-2013)
Following line was told yesterday in both previous Outlooks:-
As supports below 5835 and resistances above 5905 therefore current month expiry is expected within 5835-5905 tomorrow.
Nifty traded first 3 hours today within mentioned range between 5864.10-5900.30.
As supports below 5835 and resistances above 5905 therefore current month expiry is expected within 5835-5905 tomorrow.
Nifty traded first 3 hours today within mentioned range between 5864.10-5900.30.
Sideways quiet market today with some lower levels supports therefore some recovery is being seen but expiry is expected within mentioned range and may near 5900.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-09-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Sep-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 5895-5910
2- Consolidation between 5811-5835
3- Mixed Patterns between 5857-5885
3- Whole day actual trading between 5811-5910
Correction continuation and firstly down moves after higher levels selling but lower levels good consolidation also seen today. As today consolidation is between the lower levels of previous support range(5779-5896) therefore previous lower levels supports have been strengthened but higher levels selling also seen above this range therefore sustaining beyond mentioned support range(5779-5896) should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.
All trends are up but higher levels continuous selling for the last 5 sessions therefore Nifty is well poised for deeper correction also but immediate strong supports lying at lower levels between 5779-5835 therefore follow up complete selling is required in the coming sessions for sustaining below 5779.
Mixed Patterns formation in last hour between 5857-5885 today therefore sustaining beyond this range will be next moves 1st signal but it should be kept in mind that next big trend will be decided by valid break out of previous 12 sessions trading range(5779-6140).
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1- Selling between 5895-5910
2- Consolidation between 5811-5835
3- Mixed Patterns between 5857-5885
3- Whole day actual trading between 5811-5910
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Correction continuation and firstly down moves after higher levels selling but lower levels good consolidation also seen today. As today consolidation is between the lower levels of previous support range(5779-5896) therefore previous lower levels supports have been strengthened but higher levels selling also seen above this range therefore sustaining beyond mentioned support range(5779-5896) should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.
All trends are up but higher levels continuous selling for the last 5 sessions therefore Nifty is well poised for deeper correction also but immediate strong supports lying at lower levels between 5779-5835 therefore follow up complete selling is required in the coming sessions for sustaining below 5779.
Mixed Patterns formation in last hour between 5857-5885 today therefore sustaining beyond this range will be next moves 1st signal but it should be kept in mind that next big trend will be decided by valid break out of previous 12 sessions trading range(5779-6140).
It is clear that Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive break out and will remain sideways tomorrow as well as prepare for next trend. As supports below 5835 and resistances above 5905 therefore current month expiry is expected within 5835-5905 tomorrow.
Post-closing Report(25-09-2013)
As soon as Nifty got supports are lower levels then we updated bounce posssibility in previous Outlook and Nifty recovered strongly from lower levels. Supports below 5830 and resistances above 5905 therefore current month expiry is expected within 5830-5905 tomorrow
Mid-session Outlook-2(25-09-2013)
As more than 3 hours trading within support range above 5779 with intraday supports above 5814 today therefore some bounce is possible
Mid-session Outlook(25-09-2013)
Although Nifty traded more than 80 points down but when was thrading in Green then we clearly told for Selling patterns formations in previous Outlook before the beginning of sharp down moves. Forceful down moves today but now trading within support range therefore some volatility can not be ruled out and once sustaining below 5779 will mean deeper correction and trend reversal will be considered after sustaining below 200-Day EMA(today at 5748)
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