Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(14-08-2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Aug-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
2- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
3- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
4- Wave-C(5486.85 on 07-08-2013)
5- Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through Nifty sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5779)
6- Pull Back Rally continuation and its recent high formations at 5704.75 on 13-08-2013

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Pull Back Rally continuation after Wave-C completion at 5486.85 and its recent high formations at 5704.75 today.  Retracement levels of Wave-C are as follows and these levels will decide the length of on going Pull back rally:-

23.6%- 5629
38.2%- 5717
50.0%- 5789
61.8%- 5861
76.4%- 5949

Next resistances are as follows:-

1-5680-5720
2-5740-5765

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Aug-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day continuous slow up moves in Bearish Rising Channel. 
2- Whole day actual trading between 5601-5704

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Pull Back Rally continuation and whole day continuous slow up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore sustaining above today higher levels is firstly required for on going rally further continuation confirmations.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Long and Intermediate Term Trends are down and Short Term Trend turned up after Pull Back Rally continuation. 38.2%(5717) Retracement has been almost completed after rally top formation at 5704.75 today. 50.0% Retracement level is at 5789 and following crucial levels are near about it:-

1- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5779)
2- Next resistance range 5740-5765

At present only Pull Back Rally is being considered and being expected that it will fuse between 5704-5789 because resistances at higher levels and today up moves were strong Global cues led as well as whole day up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel today.  

As sentiment turned strong therefore some up moves can not be ruled out but expected that Nifty will not be able to cross next resistance range(5740-5765) and fresh down moves will begin after development of follow up selling in the coming sessions.

Pre-Closing Outlook(13-08-2013)

Strong rally in Global markets today through:-

1- Most Asian markets closing near the highest of  the day.
2- 4 Asian markets closing between 1.05% up to 2.57% up.
3- Dow's Futures is positive since opening and more than 60 points for the last 1 hour.
4- All rhe European markets are up from 0.41% to 0.85%

Sentiment boosted and resultant Indian markets participation in Global markets party today. Next resistances are as follows:-

1-5680-5720
2-5740-5765

Nifty is trading between 1st resistance range and sustaining above both above resistance ranges will be watched for reconsideration of Long Term trend through sustaining beyond 200-Day EMA(today at 5780) 

Mid-session Outlook(13-08-2013)

Sentiment was most depressed today morning due to following reasons:-

1- Below expectation ONGC and SBI quarterly results yesterday.
2- Indian Rupee weakened 33 Paise within first 12 minutes ie 09:12 AM(before the opening of Indian Stock markets).
3- Most disappointing IIP numbers after the closing of Indian markets yesterday.

As US and European markets closed flat after good recovery from lower levels yesterday and all the Asian markets were positive as well as some Asian markets were trading with very good gains therefore strong recovery from lower levels was seen today. Certainly surprising rally today after ignoring most negative local cues and now Nifty is trading just below next resistance range(5680-5720),now sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next Intermediate Term Trend confirmations. 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(13-08-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Aug-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1-Support between 5557-5571
2-More than 4 hours Up moves in Broadening pattern. 
3-Selling between 5620-5644
4-Broadening pattern broken down
5- Whole day actual trading between 5557-5644 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Aug 12 to Aug 16,2013):-

indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves possibility can not be ruled out. As some supports were also seen at lower levels in last 2 sessions of previous week therefore its possibility is still alive.

Pull Back Rally seen in Broadening pattern after lower levels supports but Broadening pattern broken down after higher levels good selling and emergence of last Wednesday started Pull Back Rally termination possibility. As higher levels good selling therefore next up move will not be considered until Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5644.10)

Next resistance range is between 5680-5720 and intraday selling seen below it today,follow up selling tomorrow and slipping below today lowest(5557) will mean will mean high possibility of on going correction continuation after completion of Pull Back Rally today because higher levels some selling was seen in last 2 sessions of previous week also.

Mid-session Outlook-2(12-08-2013)

Emergence of selling signals in last 1 hour intraday charts and next up move will not be considered until Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5644.10)

Mid-session Outlook(12-08-2013)

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Aug 12 to Aug 16,2013):-

1-indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves possibility can not be ruled out. As some supports were also seen at lower levels in last 2 sessions of previous week therefore its possibility is still alive.

2-valid break out of last 2 sessions trading range(5486-5577) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations

Pull Back Rally continuation after valid break out above 5577 and  sustaining beyond next resistance range(5680-5720) will be watched now for its completion/continuation.

Post-open Outlook-2(12-08-2013)

Indian Rupee is highly volatile today and resultant Indian markets are also highly volatile since opening today. Although finally down moves are expected but sustaining beyond 5577 should be firstly watched today for next Short term trend confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(12-08-2013)

Some up moves were seen immediately after gap up opening today but could not sustain at higher levels and slipped below 5577 because Selling was seen at higher levels on 08-08-2013. Firstly sustaining beyond 5577 should be should be watched today for next Short term trend confirmations and high possibility of sustaining below 5577.

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Aug 12 to Aug 16,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (08-Aug-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013
10 Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through Nifty sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5782)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 07 & Aug 08,2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations on 07-08-2013
2- Selling at higher levels on 07-08-2013
3- Last half hour down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
4- Whole day up moves in Bearish Rising channel on 08-08-2013. 
5- Selling at higher levels on 08-08-2013
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5486-5577 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Short Term up moves but with complete mixed patterns formations in last 2 Sessions because lower levels supports and higher levels selling as well as both bullish and bearish patterns formations also therefore valid break out of last 2 sessions trading range(5486-5577) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Whole waves structure from  20-12-2011 with following conclusive lines were updated on 04-08-2013 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Aug 05 to Aug 08,2013):-

1- Indian markets are on the verge entering into Bear phase through confirmation of sustaining below  Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5790).
2- Firstly some up moves in the beginning of next week and finally down moves are expected because Wave-c continuation.

As was told on 04-08-2013 same happened and Nifty slipped 191 points in previous week and weekly closing was 112 points down as well as confirmation of Indian markets entering into Bear phase.

When previous closing of Nifty was at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 then following line was told on 29-07-2013 in Last hope for Bulls at 5792

As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.

Correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 was told 2 weeks before and that was seen also with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013.

As correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 was expected therefore following retracement levels were updated on 31-07-2013 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-07-2013):-

13.0%-6008
23.6%-5828
27.0%-5770
38.2%-5580
50.0%-5380
61.8%-5179
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724

Next supports are as follows:-

1- Gap support between 5447.45-5526.95
2- 5210-5270
3- 5075-5140
4- 4779-4880

Corrective Wave-c continuation and all trends are down but indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves possibility can not be ruled out. As some supports were also seen at lower levels in last 2 sessions of previous week therefore its possibility is still alive and complete selling patterns are required for sustaining below the lowest(5486.85) of on going correction. Although some selling was also seen  in last 2 sessions of previous week but not sufficient and more selling is required for decisive down moves.

valid break out of last 2 sessions trading range(5486-5577) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations and expected that finally correction will remain continued below 5486.85. Let market get support and complete consolidation develop on daily charts minimum then trend reversal will be considered and will be updated in the same manner as being done for the last more than 3 years.

Pre-Closing Outlook(08-08-2013)

Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves were told in all previous outlooks and it was seen today but following line was also told and should be kept in mind:-

valid break out of today trading range(5486-5561) should also be watched for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations

Mid-session Outlook(08-08-2013)

When all around negative news flow then following lines were told yesterday in Mid-session Outlook-2:-

As market ignored all most depressing news and recovered from lower levels after getting supports therefore until complete selling patterns will not develop till then next down moves will not be considered.

When US markets were in deep Red then following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook:-

Certainly Indian markets out performed and intraday patterns are showing above mentioned 1 to 3 positive formations therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves hopes turned alive today and we are seeing its high possibility also.

High possibility of Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves was told and Nifty is more than 0.75% up today as well as up moves continuation is expected and once sustaining above 5561 will mean strong up moves.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(08-08-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Aug-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations
2- Higher tops(T1 to T4) and higher Bottoms(B1 to B4) formations.
3- Last half hour down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
4- Selling at higher levels
5- Whole day actual trading between 5486-5561

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the lower levels of the day with higher levels some selling also but lower levels supports,higher tops and higher Bottoms formations and Last half hour down moves in Bullish Falling Channel were also seen therefore view will not be Bearish for Short Term Trend. Benchmark Indices closed 0.42% down but got supports at lower levels also despite all around following negative news flow:-

1- Indian Rupee weakness since opening today.
2- Indo Pak Border tension escalation.
3- Dow's Futures was more than 50 points down almost whole day.
4- Most Asian markets closed more than 1% down 

Certainly Indian markets out performed and intraday patterns are showing above mentioned 1 to 3 positive formations therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves hopes turned alive today and we are seeing its high possibility also. 

As market slipped in last hour and it may be a signal of loosing strength and weakness also therefore precaution is required and  valid break out of today trading range(5486-5561) should also be watched for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations

Mid-session Outlook-2(07-08-2013)

Oscillators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally is being seen after lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations despite all around following negative news flow:-

1- Indian Rupee weakness since opening today.
2- Indo Pak Border tension.
3- Global markets weakness

As market ignored all most depressing news and recovered from lower levels after getting supports therefore until complete selling patterns will not develop till then next down moves will not be considered. Last more than 1 hour up moves are not showing strength therefore it is indication of weakness and today trading range(5488-5541) valid break out will be next trend confirmations

Mid-session Outlook(07-08-2013)

As US markets closed weak yesterday and Dow's Futures was also more than 40 points down today morning therefore sentiment was depressed and all the Asian markets are weak,resultant Indian markets slipped immediately after opening. 

Global markets are sharp down and Indian Rupee is also weakening but Oscillators are oversold therefore some bounce seen from lower levels but until Nifty will not consolidate completely till then any decisive up move will not be seen and only Pull Back rally will be considered.

Detailed analysis of EOD charts have already been updated in previous topics.

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Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(07-08-2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Aug-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5521.80 on 06-08-2013

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Rally begun after 13 Months correction completion on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15 and this rally terminated after 5 waves structure completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 as well as 'ABC' correction commenced. As correction started after 5 waves completion and Long Term Trend turning down confirmations also through sustaining below 200-Day EMA(today at 5786) therefore entering into Bearish phase and correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 is being seen and following retracement should be kept in mind:-

13.0%-6008(Retraced)
23.6%-5828(Retraced)
27.0%-5770(Retraced)
38.2%-5580(Crucial Level Retracment completed)
50.0%-5380(Crucial Level)
61.8%-5179(Crucial Level)
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724

Next Supports are as follows:-

1- 5490-5520
2- 5220-5260
3- 5080-5180

Corrective Wave-c continuation,no indication of its completion yet and until complete consolidation will not happen on Daily and intraday charts till then any reversal will not be seen but some up moves/Bounce back/Pull Back Rallies can not be ruled out after some intraday consolidations because Oscillators have move into Oversold zone.

Pre-Closing Outlook(06-08-2013)

When Indian markets recovered from lower levels and Nifty was trading above 5600 then following line was told at 01:09 PM today in Mid-session Outlook:-

Corrective Wave-c continuation and more down moves are still expected.

As we told same happened and Nifty moved down more than 80 points after our more down moves projection. Indian markets are in Bear phase and until complete consolidation will not happen on Daily and intraday charts till then any reversal will not be seen but some up moves/Bounce back/Pull Back Rallies can not be ruled out after some intraday consolidations.

Mid-session Outlook(06-08-2013)

Following line was told on 04-08-2013 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Aug 05 to Aug 08,2013) 

Firstly some up moves in the beginning of next week and finally down moves are expected because Wave-c continuation.

As was told same happened and finally sharp down moves are being seen today after some up moves in first 2 hours yesterday.

Corrective Wave-c continuation and more down moves are still expected.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(06-08-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Aug-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 5665-5675
2- Selling between 5709-5721
3- Last more than 3 hour trading with mixed patterns trading between 5675-5698
4- Whole day actual trading between 5665-5721

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Higher levels selling patterns,lower and levels supports and last more than 3 hours trading with mixed patterns therefore no clear pattern formations on 05-08-2013. Higher levels selling and lower levels supports in last 2 sessions therefore sustaining beyond 5649-5721 will be be watched today for next moves confirmations. 

Pre-open Outlook(06-08-2013)

All the Asian markets are in Red and some are more than 1% down therefore sentiment is depressed today morning and gap down opening will be seen. Confirmation of sustaining below 5649 will mean sharp fall because corrective Wave-c continuation.

Pre-Closing Outlook(05-08-2013)

Whole day sideways trading with selling patterns formations at higher levels but lower levels supports last Friday also therefore sustaining beyond 5649-5721 will be be watched tomorrow for next moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(05-08-2013)

4 Sessions trading between 5649-5808 with NSEL news led high volatility,following supports and resistances:- 

1- Supports between 5649-5680
2- Resistances between 5730-5768
3- Resistances between 5782-5808

As Bullish Falling Channel last Friday therefore some up moves were expected and being seen today but follow up consolidation is required for crossing next resistances and next decisive up moves above 5808. It should also be kept in mind that selling in the coming hours will mean deeper correction after sustaining below 5649.