Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Aug 05 to Aug 08,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (02-Aug-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-c continuation with bottom formation at 5649.00 on 02-08-2013
10 Nifty slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5790)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Intermediate and Short Term Trends are down and and almost confirmation of Long Term Trend turning down after after last 4 sessions closing below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5790),once confirmation will mean entering into Bear phase. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Aug-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day down moves within Bullish Falling Channel.
2- Whole day actual trading between 5649-5745

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day down moves within Bullish Falling Channel therefore indications of up moves despite 0.87% negative closing last Friday.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Wave-c continuation and Indian markets are on the verge entering into Bear phase through confirmation of sustaining below  Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5790). As last 8 sessions continuous down moves therefore Short Term indicators have move into oversold zone and signalling some up moves/ bounce Back/Pull Back Rally as well as its possibility is alive because Bullish Falling Channel last Friday. 

Firstly some up moves in the beginning of next week and finally down moves are expected because Wave-c continuation.

Pre-Closing Outlook-2(02-08-2013)

Nifty was trading at 5697 at 01:57 PM and at that time  Rupee was trading at 60.75 but as soon as Rupee slipped 28 paise within 1 hour then Nifty immediately responded and down 50 points to 5649. As today breaking down moves are negative news led therefore sustaining below 5677 should be firstly watched in the next week for fresh down moves confirmations.

Pre-Closing Outlook(02-08-2013)

As soon as Rupee formed new intraday low the Nifty slipped below 5677 and it strong indication of fresh down moves in the next week.

Mid-session Outlook-3(02-08-2013)

As whole day without force down moves and it is an Bullish signal therefore sustaining below 5677 should be watched for next decisive down moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(02-08-2013)

Nifty slipped below 5712 but sustaining it below should be firstly watched now and it should also be kept in mind that slipping below 5677 will be confirmation of fresh sharp down moves.

Mid-session Outlook(02-08-2013)

As Indian Rupee is down by 35 paise today therefore sentiment is weak and Indian markets slipped as well as traded in Red but today down moves have formed Bullish falling channel in last 1 hour therefore view is cautious despite falling Rupee. Just watch for valid break out of 5712-5769 because Nifty traded last 4 hours within this range yesterday with mixed patterns formations and today also traded most time within this range.

Post-open Outlook(02-08-2013)

As lower levels good consolidations in previous 2 sessions therefore Positive opening today but Indian Rupee is weak by 19 paisa in early morning trades therefore sentiment is depressed and firstly sustaining beyond 5712-5769 should be watched for next immediate moves confirmations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(02-08-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Aug-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5785-5808
2- Support between 5682-5720
3- Mixed Patterns between 5712-5769 in last 4 hours.
4- Whole day actual trading between 5682-5808

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

NSEL news led confusion and resultant highly volatile market in first 2 hours,firstly crashing from higher levels after some selling but lower levels supports also seen today. Lower levels supports between 5677-5720 yesterday and follow up support seen between this range therefore strengthening of supports and base formation today and until Nifty will not sustain below 5677 till then next down moves will not be considered.

Corrective Wave-C continuation but Very Short Term up moves/Bounce back/Pull Back Rally can not be ruled out after lower levels suppots and its possibility is very much alive because lower levels supports in previous 2 sessions. Last 4 hours trading between 5712-5769 with mixed Patterns therefore valid break out of this range is next Short Term Trend decider and should be firstly watched tomorrow, As consolidation patterns seen within this range therefore high possibility of sustaining above 5769 and Pull Back Rally continuation.

Mid-session Outlook-3(01-08-2013)

NSEL news led high volatality in first 3 hours today with supports after supports and consolidations at  lower levels yesterday therefore until today lowest (5677) will not be broken down till then next down moves will not be considered. As some selling was also seen at higher levels today therefore today highest (5808) is next resistance and expected that Nifty will prepare for next immediate moves between 5677-5808 and valid break out of this range should be firstly watched for next moves confirmations because technical positions reverses in today like news led high volatality. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(01-08-2013)

Nifty recovered 65 points from lower levels within 15 minutes after loosing more than 130 points within first 2 hours. It is called huge volatility for cutting of small traders both side stop losses and will be better to wait for stabilising of market and taking decisive trading positions.

Mid-session Outlook(01-08-2013)

Corrective Wave-C continuation and Pull Back Rally immediately fused after strong recovery today therefore it is clear weakness signal As consolidation and lower levels supports between 5677-5720 yesterday therefore market will trade within this range,market could could not sustain at higher levels and Corrective Wave-C continuation therefore slipping below 5677 after follow up selling between 5677-5720 can not be ruled out now.

Post-open Outlook(01-08-2013)

Only consolidations and Pull Back Rally was told in all 3 previous Outlooks and Nifty is 63 points up today. Corrective Wave-C continuation but Pull Back Rallies are its part and being seen today,let it complete and fresh selling develop then next down moves after Pull Back Rally completion will be considered. 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(01-08-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- First 4 hours lower levels supports and consolidations between 5677-5720
2- Last more than 1 hour trading with mixed Patterns between 4726-5751 
3- Whole day actual trading between 5677-5751

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As lower levels supports and consolidations therefore some recovery from lower levels but last more than 1 hour trading with mixed Patterns between 5677-5751 also. Correction continuation but emergence of Pull Back Rally possibility today and firstly sustaining beyond 5677-5751 should be watched tomorrow for Pull Back Rally beginning confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(31-07-2013)

Although Nifty was more than 1% down but intraday patterns were showing consolidation indications therefore valid break out of 5679-5720 was told for next immediate moves confirmations in previous Outlook and now Nifty moved above 5720. If sustains above 5720 then Pull Back Rally will be considered after more than 400 points correction in 6 sessions. 

Mid-session Outlook(31-07-2013)

As Indian Rupee further weakened today therefore Indian markets slipped after gap down opening but some recovery also after lower levels supports. Indian markets will react on FOMC announcements tomorrow and preparing today for those moves.

Nifty is more than 1% down and trading between 5679-5720 with consolidation indications therefore mixed signals and valid break out of mentioned range will be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.

Let next moves preparation and intraday charts formation complete then will be updated according to final conclusions.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-07-2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- 6229.45 on 20-05-2013(Rally completion after 5 Waves completion and 'ABC' correction continuation.
3- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(5792) broken down on 30-07-2013.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Whole rally from 4531.15 to 6229.45 and its correction with Waves structure was updated on 29-07-2013 in "Last hope for Bulls at 5792" and Following lines were also told:- 

1- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5792 and previous closing is well above it at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 therefore Long Term Trend is up but corrective Wave-c continuation and Short Term Trend is down as well as Intermediate Term Trend will be down after closing below 5888. 

2- As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.

Nifty closed below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(5792) yesterday and sustaining below it will mean entering into Bearish phase as well as its possibility is high now. As correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 is expected therefore following retracement should be kept in mind:- 

13.0%-6008(Retraced)
23.6%-5828(Retraced)
27.0%-5770(Retraced)
38.2%-5580(Crucial Level)
50.0%-5380(Crucial Level)
61.8%-5179(Crucial Level)
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724

Correction continuation and Bounce Back/Pull Back Rally may be seen after some intraday supports or minor consolidations but until complete consolidation on Daily charts will not happen till then its completion will not be considered. 

Now corrective Wave-C continuation therefore down moves are expected after development of follow up selling. Let down moves stop at near about above mentioned levels and complete consolidation develop then correction completion will be considered otherwise correction is very much on.

Pre-Closing Outlook(30-07-2013)

As Indian Rupee turned more than 1% weak today and neutralised all steps by RBI to support it in previous weeks therefore sentiment depressed and continuous slipping of Indian Stock markets. Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5792 and Nifty is trading below it today once confirmations of sustaining below it will mean entering into Bearish phase as well as its possibility is high now.

corrective Wave-C continuation and following lines are being repeated which were told at 08:20:00 AM yesterday in "Last hope for Bulls at 5792"

Now almost confirmation of corrective Wave-C continuation after completion of Wave-A and B and its target will be below the bottom of Wave-A(5566.25).

Mid-session Outlook(30-07-2013)

Although Indian markets closed near the lower levels of the day yesterday but we did not posted Bearish views because last 2 Sessions down moves within Bullish Falling Channel and resultant Nifty was .40% up today. View is same that firstly volatility and after that finally down moves are expected because corrective Wave-C continuation.

Post-open Outlook(30-07-2013)

As last 2 Sessions down moves within Bullish Falling Channel therefore therefore Indian markets opened positive and now again Green after some recovery from lower levels despite weakening of Indian Rupee today. Some volatility is expected before and after RBI Credit Policy and if nothing encouraging for markets then sharp down will be seen because corrective Wave-C continuation.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(30-07-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jul 26 & Jul 29,2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- 2 Sessions Down moves within Bullish Falling Channel.
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5827-5944 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Long Term Trend is up, Intermediate and Short Term Trends turned down after the beginning on going Wave-C correction. Last 2 sessions continuous down moves but within Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves or intraday volatility can not be ruled out after any positive announcement in RBI Credit policy tomorrow and/or FOMC meet after 30-31 July 2013.

As corrective Wave-C continuation and finally down moves are expected therefore volatility for the cutting of both sides stop losses is expected in the coming sessions,as it was seen today and both new intraday high and new intraday low formation  was seen after 12:30 PM in Nifty Jul Fut.

Pre-Closing Outlook(29-07-2013)

Although down moves after new intraday high formations but new intraday low formation also today therefore trading patterns are suggesting only volatility and decisive moves will be expected after Credit policy but high volatility before and after its announcements may be seen again tomorrow. As today all down moves are showing Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore some up moves,Bounce Back or minor Pull Back Rally can not be ruled out but corrective Wave-C continuation and finally down moves are expected.