Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 30-04-2013

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5990
R2 5962
R1 5940
Avg 5912
S1 5890
S2 5862
S3 5840

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5968     Trgt 2
H5 5956     Trgt 1
H4 5945     Long breakout
H3 5931     Go Short
H2 5927
H1 5922
L1 5913
L2 5908
L3 5904     Long
L4 5890     Short Breakout
L5 5879     Trgt 1
L6 5867     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 30-04-2013

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 12870
R2 12760
R1 12671
Avg 12561
S1 12472
S2 12362
S3 12273

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12784     Trgt 2
H5 12738     Trgt 1
H4 12692     Long breakout
H3 12637     Go Short
H2 12619
H1 12601
L1 12564
L2 12546
L3 12528     Long
L4 12473     Short Breakout
L5 12427     Trgt 1
L6 12381     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook-2(29-04-2013)

Although selling signals at higher levels but lower levels good consolidations today and until Nifty will not sustaining below today lowest(5869) till then next down moves will not be considered.

Mid-session Outlook(29-04-2013)

As previous 2 sessions range bound market with both lower levels buying and higher levels selling patterns between 5862-5922 therefore market was not prepared for any side decisive moves and trading as well as preparing for next moves between mentioned range.  

Some selling signals at higher levels today but lower levels good buying last Friday therefore firstly valid break out of 5862-5922 should be watched for next Short Term Trend confirmations. 

Short Term Correction Possibility

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook 

(Apr 29 to May 03,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Apr-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave 3 completion at 6111.80 on 29-01-2013
2- Corrective Wave 4 continuation
3- Wave A(5663.60 on 04-03-2012)
4- Wave B(5971.20 on 11-03-2012)
5- Corrective Wave C of Wave 4 completion(5477.20 on 10-04-2013) 
6- Impulsive Wave 5 continuation and its top formation at 5924.60 on 25-04-2013.
3- Bearish Harami Candle formation on 26-04-2013 near the top of on going Wave-5

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Impulsive Wave 1 begun at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011 after 13 Months correction completion and Wave 3 was completed at 6111.80 on 29-01-2013. Detailed analysis of Wave 1 to  Wave 3 has already been updated in following topic on 21-04-2013:- 

Wave 5 confirmations for new top of rally above 6111.80:-  

Impulsive Wave 5 is on after Wave 4 correction completion at 5477.20 on 10-04-2013 and its top formation at 5924.60 on 25-04-2013. Technically Wave-5 should form new top above the highest of Wave-3(6111.80). As per Elliot Wave Theory:-

Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5

Wave-3 gained 1341.55 Points 6111.80(Wave-3 top)-4770.25(Wave-3 bottom)  

Wave-5 should not gain more than 1341.55 Points which started from 5477.20 therefore its highest level will be less than 6818.75(5477.20+1341.55)

Fibonacci Levels above Wave-3 top(6111.80) are as follows:-

113.0%- 6193
123.6%- 6260
127.0%- 6282
138.2%- 6353
150.0%- 5428
161.8%- 6502

As 161.8% is crucial therefore firstly its possibility will be considered. Technically Wave-5 failure or its completions after double top formations possibility should be kept in mind because it also happens sometimes. 

It is confirm that market require complete selling patterns minimum on Daily charts for reevrsal of Wave-5 and until that will not happen till then its continuation will be seen.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 25 & Apr 26,2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Higher levels selling and lower levels buying patterns formations.
2- High volatility in last hours on 25-04-2013.
3- Bullish falling Channel formations on 26-04-2013. 
4- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5862-5922 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Range bound 2 sessions with both buying and selling patterns formations therefore mixed formations with good selling at higher levels and complete consolidations are required for next up moves above 5862.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up but Short term Indicators are overbought after 447 points rally in 10 sessions. As Bearish Harami Candle formation on 26-04-2013 near the top of on going rally with higher levels selling also in last 2 sessions between 5862-5922 therefore correction will also be considered and confirmations will be after valid breaking down of previous 2 sessions lowest(5862).   

As Political temperature will be high in next week because of CBI chief affidavit in Apex court disclosing P.M.interference therefore volatility will be high. Technically Short Term Correction is due and if political situations worsen then deeper correction will be seen. R.B.I. Credit Policy will be announced on 3rd May and high possibility of rates reduction as well as CRR cut. 

Technically up moves are expected after correction completion if no immediate risk to Manmohan Singh Government.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 26-Apr-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 26-Apr-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 26-Apr-2013 3337.36 3112.61 224.75

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 26-Apr-2013 1034.39 1412.17 -377.78

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(26-Apr-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.15
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.05
Nifty P/E Ratio(26-Apr-2013): 17.49

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :   960
BSE Declines : 1,409
NSE Advances :   499
NSE Declines :   817

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600  CE(May)- -58,200(-4.33%)
Nifty- 5600  PE(May)- -70,950(-2.01%)

Nifty- 5700  CE(May)- 11,600(0.43%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(May)- 314,550(6.89%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(May)- 20,850(0.60%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(May)- 241,400(4.96%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(May)- 422,500(10.14%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(May)- 345,750(11.84%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(May)- 582,350(17.49%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(May)- -63,800(-5.72%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,286.72(-120.13 Points & -0.62%)
Nifty- closed at 5,871.45(-44.85 Points & -0.76%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,715.15(-62.80 Points & -0.81%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,219.55(-43.45 Points & -1.33%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-04-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5945
R2 5926
R1 5898
Avg 5879
S1 5851
S2 5832
S3 5804

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5918     Trgt 2
H5 5907     Trgt 1
H4 5896     Long breakout
H3 5883     Go Short
H2 5879
H1 5875
L1 5866
L2 5862
L3 5858     Long
L4 5845     Short Breakout
L5 5834     Trgt 1
L6 5823     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-04-2013

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5955
R2 5937
R1 5912
Avg 5894
S1 5869
S2 5851
S3 5826

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5930     Trgt 2
H5 5920     Trgt 1
H4 5910     Long breakout
H3 5898     Go Short
H2 5894
H1 5890
L1 5883
L2 5879
L3 5875     Long
L4 5863     Short Breakout
L5 5853     Trgt 1
L6 5843     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-04-2013

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 12824
R2 12747
R1 12625
Avg 12548
S1 12426
S2 12349
S3 12227

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12703     Trgt 2
H5 12658     Trgt 1
H4 12613     Long breakout
H3 12558     Go Short
H2 12540
H1 12522
L1 12485
L2 12467
L3 12449     Long
L4 12394     Short Breakout
L5 12349     Trgt 1
L6 12304     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Apr 29 to May 03,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6069
R2 5997
R1 5934
Avg 5862
S1 5799
S2 5727
S3 5664

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 6007     Trgt 2
H5 5976     Trgt 1
H4 5945     Long breakout
H3 5908     Go Short
H2 5895
H1 5883
L1 5858
L2 5846
L3 5833     Long
L4 5796     Short Breakout
L5 5765     Trgt 1
L6 5734     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Apr 29 to May 03,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 13192
R2 12974
R1 12753
Avg 12535
S1 12314
S2 12096
S3 11875

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 12979     Trgt 2
H5 12877     Trgt 1
H4 12774     Long breakout
H3 12653     Go Short
H2 12613
H1 12573
L1 12492
L2 12452
L3 12412     Long
L4 12291     Short Breakout
L5 12188     Trgt 1
L6 12086     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook-2(26-04-2013)

Although gap up strong opening yesterday but we were cautious because of already mentioned negative news flow and markets turned range bound. As some cooling of(or correction) was also required after 7 sessions strong rally therefore 2 sessions range bound market between 5862-5922 with high volatility yesterday. Sometimes Bull markets does not correct deep and completes correction with range bound mode therefore following ranges valid break out should be firstly watched now:-

1- 5876-5909(most time trading today and yesterday)
2- 5862-5922(Actual trading range of yesterday after high volatility in last hours)

Mid-session Outlook(26-04-2013)

Almost following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-04-2013):-

1- high volatility in last hours and mentioned range broken out both sides. As technical positions reverses during such volatility and negative news flow(Tension with China and JPC report on Coal scam) also therefore view is cautious.
2- sustaining beyond 5876-5909 should be firstly watched tomorrow for next Short Term Trend confirmations.

Nifty is trading and preparing for next trend within mentioned range since opening today and could not sustain at higher levels. Following conclusions will be drawn after sustaining beyond mentioned range:- 

1- Below 5876 will mean correction of previous 7 sessions strong rally.
2- Above 5909 will mean rally continuation with high possibility of strong rally after crossing on going resistance range(5820-5965).

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-04-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Apr-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Rising Channel.
2- First 5 hours narrow range trading between 5876-5909
2- High volatility in last hours.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5862-5923.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

First 5 hours narrow range trading between 5876-5909 with up moves in Rising Channel after gap up opening and channel down but high volatility in last hours and mentioned range broken out both sides. As technical positions reverses during such volatility and negative news flow(Tension with China and JPC report on Coal scam) also therefore view is cautious.

All trends are up and technically no selling today therefore rally continuation is expected in the coming sessions but view is cautious and sustaining beyond 5876-5909 should be firstly watched tomorrow for next Short Term Trend confirmations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Apr-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Apr-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Apr-2013 6226.62 4776.92 1449.7

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Apr-2013 1054.58 2324.01 -1269.43

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Apr-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.21
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.17
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Apr-2013): 17.61

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,220
BSE Declines : 1,166
NSE Advances :   720
NSE Declines :   612

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600  CE(May)- 229,900(20.62%)
Nifty- 5600  PE(May)- 857,350(32.10%)

Nifty- 5700  CE(May)- 473,450(21.30%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(May)- 1,879,850(70.01%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(May)- 242,450(7.47%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(May)- 2,482,850(104.17%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(May)- 430,650(11.53%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(May)- 2,176,000(292.12%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(May)- 864,400(35.07%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(May)- 515,000(85.73%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,406.85(227.49 Points & 1.19%)
Nifty- closed at 5,916.30(79.40 Points & 1.36%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,777.95(43.40 Points & 0.56%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,263.00(11.95 Points & 0.37%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-04-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6013
R2 5968
R1 5942
Avg 5897
S1 5871
S2 5826
S3 5800

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5987     Trgt 2
H5 5971     Trgt 1
H4 5955     Long breakout
H3 5935     Go Short
H2 5929
H1 5922
L1 5909
L2 5902
L3 5896     Long
L4 5876     Short Breakout
L5 5860     Trgt 1
L6 5844     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-04-2013

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5994
R2 5963
R1 5942
Avg 5911
S1 5890
S2 5859
S3 5838

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5973     Trgt 2
H5 5961     Trgt 1
H4 5949     Long breakout
H3 5935     Go Short
H2 5930
H1 5925
L1 5916
L2 5911
L3 5906     Long
L4 5892     Short Breakout
L5 5880     Trgt 1
L6 5868     Trgt 2