Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(17-04-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Apr-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves but slow.
2- Bearish Rising Wedge formations in last hours.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5566-5699

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following Crucial levels were broken down in previous 8 sessions:-

1- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5664)
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA(today at 5657)
4- 5548.35(Strong support broken down)

Nifty traded between 5478-5610 in previous 8 sessions and this range broken out forcefully today with out performance of Indian markets over all Global markets as well as closing seen above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5664) therefore strong indications of rally continuation after correction completion. 

As whole day slow up moves with Bearish Rising Wedge formations in last hours at the top of the day therefore firstly sustaining above following levels is must for the continuation of today started up moves as well as Wave-5 rally confirmations after corrective Wave-4 completion.

1- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5664)
2- Above today top(5699)

Although crucial levels are broken out in very Short Term but Confirmations are always must for decisive Trend formation therefore we always gave those levels of which breaking down confirmation was must for deeper down moves and market reversed today without giving breaking down confirmations. In the same manner above 2 levels have been given today for the confirmations Wave-5 strong rally. 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 16-Apr-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-Apr-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 16-Apr-2013 3095.66 2503.91 591.75

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 16-Apr-2013 792.91 997.8 -204.89

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(16-Apr-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.09
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.04
Nifty P/E Ratio(16-Apr-2013): 17.12

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,345
BSE Declines : 1,027
NSE Advances :   836
NSE Declines :   489

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500  CE(Apr)- -1,569,550(-39.64%)
Nifty- 5500  PE(Apr)-  339,050(4.08%)

Nifty- 5600  CE(Apr)- -726,650(-11.32%)
Nifty- 5600  PE(Apr)-  2,757,350(46.31%)

Nifty- 5700  CE(Apr)- -573,200(-6.79%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Apr)-  2,439,050(102.95%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Apr)- -182,150(-2.55%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Apr)- -45,650(-4.30%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Apr)-  959,100(15.33%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(Apr)- -66,550(-8.69%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,744.93(387.13 Points & 2.11%)
Nifty- closed at 5,688.95(120.55 Points & 2.16%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,524.50(103.05 Points & 1.39%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,176.25(27.70 Points & 0.88%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-04-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5883
R2 5791
R1 5739
Avg 5647
S1 5595
S2 5503
S3 5451

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5835     Trgt 2
H5 5801     Trgt 1
H4 5767     Long breakout
H3 5727     Go Short
H2 5714
H1 5701
L1 5674
L2 5661
L3 5648     Long
L4 5608     Short Breakout
L5 5574     Trgt 1
L6 5540     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-04-2013

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 5926
R2 5817
R1 5756
Avg 5647
S1 5586
S2 5477
S3 5416

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5870     Trgt 2
H5 5830     Trgt 1
H4 5789     Long breakout
H3 5742     Go Short
H2 5727
H1 5711
L1 5680
L2 5664
L3 5649     Long
L4 5602     Short Breakout
L5 5561     Trgt 1
L6 5521     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-04-2013

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 12372
R2 12134
R1 12001
Avg 11763
S1 11630
S2 11392
S3 11259

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12250     Trgt 2
H5 12161     Trgt 1
H4 12072     Long breakout
H3 11970     Go Short
H2 11936
H1 11902
L1 11833
L2 11799
L3 11765     Long
L4 11663     Short Breakout
L5 11574     Trgt 1
L6 11485     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(16-04-2013)

Pull Back Rally was expected and being seen as well as Nifty is trading above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5663) for the last 45 minutes but up moves after 09:45 PM are lacking required force therefore sustaining above 5663 is must in the coming sessions for trend reversal confirmation after correction completion.

Mid-session Outlook(16-04-2013)

Following Crucial levels were broken down in previous 8 sessions:-

1- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5663)
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA(today at 5654)
4- 5548.35(Strong support broken down)

Nifty traded between 5478-5610 in previous 8 sessions and this range broken out forcefully today with out performance of Indian markets over all Global markets therefore strong indications up trend but still trading below Long Term Trend decider both 200 Day EMA and DMA. As Up moves after 09:45 AM are slow therefore development of short covering indication also and finally sustaining beyond Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5663) should be watched for trend reversal confirmations otherewise only that Pull Back Rally will be understood which has already been predicted in following lines on 14-04-2013:- 

FIIs bought more than 3200 Cr in Stock Futures during April 2013 and lower levels supports were also seen in last 7 sessions as well as Indicators are showing positive divergence in Oversold zone therefore Pull Back Rally possibility turned alive

Post-open Outlook-2(16-04-2013)

Indian markets are out performing Global markets and now more than 1% up while some Asian are marginally positive after strong recovery from lower levels. Nifty is trading above previous 8 sessions trading range (5478-5610) but below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5663) and firstly sustaining beyond 5610-5663 should be watched for next trend and  Long Term Trend confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(16-04-2013)

Dow's Futures is now trading at 79 points up and all the Asian markets recovered strongly from lower levels. Nikkei 225 also was more than 2% down but now trading in Green therefore sentiment changed sharply and Indian markets also recovered sharply after Red opening and now trading in Green.

Previous 8 sessions trading range between 5478-5610 and above 5610 will be 1st strong indication of correction completion and confirmation will be after sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5663)

Pre-open Outlook(16-04-2013)

Sentiment is depressed today morning after near about 2% down closing of US Indices therefore weaker opening will be seen in Asian markets and Indian markets will also trade in Red after negative zone opening. As selling was seen 5570-5592 yesterday and weak sentiment today as well therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 5592 till then next up moves will not be considered and strong possibility of slipping below previous 8 sessions trading range(5478-5610). As today weakness will be negative Global cues led therefore confirmations through sustaining below 5478 is also required for the beginning next huge down moves.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-04-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Apr-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day Pull Back Rally in Rising Channel.
2- Selling patterns between 5570-5592
3- Rising Channel broken down.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5500-5592

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Apr 15 to Apr 18,2013)

Technically nothing is left for Bulls after crucial levels broken down confirmations but FIIs bought more than 3200 Cr in Stock Futures during April 2013 and lower levels supports were also seen in last 7 sessions as well as Indicators are showing positive divergence in Oversold zone therefore Pull Back Rally possibility turned alive and valid break out of previous 7 sessions trading range(5478-5610) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend confirmations.

Whole day Pull Back Rally seen in Rising Channel but channel broken down after selling patterns formation at higher levels today and no specific position formation therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade within 8 previous sessions trading range(5478-5610) and prepare for following decisive moves:-

1- Above 5610 will be 1st strong indication of correction completion and confirmation will be after sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5663) 
2- Below 5478 will mean beginning of fresh huge fall because already confirmations of crucial levels broken down. 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 15-Apr-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 15-Apr-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 15-Apr-2013 2827.5 3245.87 -418.37

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 15-Apr-2013 1072.09 774.91 297.18

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(15-Apr-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.91
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.88
Nifty P/E Ratio(15-Apr-2013): 16.80

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,233
BSE Declines : 1,066
NSE Advances :   716
NSE Declines :   592

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5400  CE(Apr)- -67,100(-6.94%)
Nifty- 5400  PE(Apr)-  1,150,100(17.53%)

Nifty- 5500  CE(Apr)- 449,550(12.73%)
Nifty- 5500  PE(Apr)- 1,804,050(27.34%)

Nifty- 5600  CE(Apr)- -516,350(-7.35%)
Nifty- 5600  PE(Apr)-  655,250(12.09%)

Nifty- 5700  CE(Apr)- 566,300(7.05%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Apr)- -73,650(-2.97%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Apr)- -95,500(-1.31%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Apr)- -90,500(-7.81%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,357.80(115.24 Points & 0.63%)
Nifty- closed at 5,568.40(39.85 Points & 0.72%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,421.45(1.90 Points & 0.03%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,148.55(19.55 Points & 0.62%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-04-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5698
R2 5645
R1 5606
Avg 5553
S1 5514
S2 5461
S3 5422

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5661     Trgt 2
H5 5639     Trgt 1
H4 5618     Long breakout
H3 5593     Go Short
H2 5584
H1 5576
L1 5559
L2 5551
L3 5542     Long
L4 5517     Short Breakout
L5 5496     Trgt 1
L6 5474     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-04-2013

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 5708
R2 5654
R1 5611
Avg 5557
S1 5514
S2 5460
S3 5417

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5666     Trgt 2
H5 5643     Trgt 1
H4 5621     Long breakout
H3 5594     Go Short
H2 5585
H1 5576
L1 5559
L2 5550
L3 5541     Long
L4 5514     Short Breakout
L5 5492     Trgt 1
L6 5469     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-04-2013

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 12044
R2 11856
R1 11701
Avg 11513
S1 11358
S2 11170
S3 11015

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11895     Trgt 2
H5 11815     Trgt 1
H4 11734     Long breakout
H3 11640     Go Short
H2 11608
H1 11577
L1 11514
L2 11483
L3 11451     Long
L4 11357     Short Breakout
L5 11276     Trgt 1
L6 11196     Trgt 2

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook is not being updated today

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Apr 15 to Apr 18,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Apr-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Wave-3 beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion)
2- Wave 1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave 2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave 3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave A(5663.60 on 04-03-2012)
6- Wave B(5971.20 on 11-03-2012)
7- Wave C of Wave 4 continuation with bottom formation at 5477.20 on 10-04-2012
8- 200 Day EMA at 5664 on 12-04-2012
9- 200 Day DMA at 5652 on 12-04-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 15 to Apr 018,2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 7 Sessions intraday charts

1- Lower levels Supports and hIgher levels selling.
3- 7 Sessions actual trading between 5478-4645 

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are down after following crucial levels broken down confirmations:-

1- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5664)
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA(5652)
4- 5548.35(Strong support broken down)

Technically nothing is left for Bulls after crucial levels broken down confirmations but FIIs bought more than 3200 Cr in Stock Futures during April 2013 and lower levels supports were also seen in last 7 sessions as well as Indicators are showing positive divergence in Oversold zone therefore Pull Back Rally possibility turned alive and valid break out of previous 7 sessions trading range(5478-5610) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend confirmations.