Trading near higher levels(5704) of today after lower levels supports and consolidations patterns but up moves were without force and it is selling signal therefore valid break out above 5704 should be firstly watched now for the possibility of bounce back or Pull Back rally.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook-2(04-03-2013)
Although lower levels supports and consolidations patterns formation but signals of selling patterns also at higher levels today. Valid break out of today trading range(5668-5704) should be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.
Mid-session Outlook(04-03-2013)
Negative zone trading since opening between 5668-5704 with lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations therefore emergence of some up moves possibilities. As lot of consolidation is required for decisive up moves and Indian markets are in the grip of as well therefore valid break out of mentioned today trading range should be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.
Long Term Trend Decider 5548
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 04 to Mar 08,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Mar-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Corrective Wave-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
2- Sub Wave-1(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
7- 'ABC' correction after Sub Wave-5 completion.-
8- Wave-A(5853.90 on 15-02-2013)
9- Wave-B(5971.00 on 20-02-2013)
10- Wave-C continuation(5671.90 on 28-02-2013)
11- Correction after Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations in 61 sessions with Neckline at 5823
11- Strong Support at 5548.35.
12- 200 Day EMA-5650.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Most Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations in 61 sessions and its neckline broken down confirmation through sustaining below 5823 in previous week. As Correction after Sub Wave-5 completion at 6111.80 therefore whole up moves will be corrected which started from 4770.35 on 04-06-2012 and firstly complete retracement of Sub Wave-5 which begun from 5548.35 can not be ruled. Although Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is at 5650 but possibility of slipping below also. As strong support at 5548.35 therefore finally sustaining it beyond will decide Long Term Trend in the coming week.
Following Fibonacci Retracement Levels should be watched for completion of on going correction:-
13.0%- 5936 (Corrected)
23.6%- 5794 (Corrected)
27.0%- 5748 (Corrected)
38.2%- 5598 (Most crucial Levels)
50.0%- 5440 (Most crucial Levels)
61.8%- 5282 (Most crucial Levels)
70.7%- 5162
76.4%- 5086
78.6%- 5056
88.6%- 4922
Short Term Indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally may be seen any day after some intraday or 1/2 days consolidations but complete consolidations are required for decisive up moves and crossing multiple resistances at higher levels.
Pre-open Outlook(04-03-2013)
Following conclusive line was told in Pre-Closing Outlook on 01-03-2013:-
"As intraday selling also at higher levels today therefore more down moves possibility is still alive"
As Nifty traded narrow between 5692-5739 last Friday with higher levels selling therefore more down moves possibility toward 5548 today,
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 01-Mar-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(01-Mar-2013)
Main features of today trading are as follows
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.86
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.85
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Mar-2013): 17.26
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,287
BSE Declines : 1,568
NSE Advances : 664
NSE Declines : 863
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5600 CE(Mar)- 201,200(33.39%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Mar)- 875,250(22.49%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(Mar)- 991,950(63.64%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Mar)- 561,000(9.11%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Mar)- 111,750(3.02%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Mar)- -451,550(-8.85%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Mar)- 698,950(15.54%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Mar)- 68,850(2.45%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Mar)- 505,900(9.45%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Mar)- -135,750(-6.45%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 18,918.52(56.98 Points & 0.30%)
Nifty- closed at 5,719.70(26.65 Points & 0.47%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,622.40( 82.05Points & 1.09%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,268.35(0.70 Points & 0.02%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-03-2013
3 5805
R2 5772
R1 5745
Avg 5712
S1 5685
S2 5652
S3 5625
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5779 Trgt 2
H5 5765 Trgt 1
H4 5752 Long breakout
H3 5735 Go Short
H2 5730
H1 5724
L1 5713
L2 5708
L3 5702 Long
L4 5686 Short Breakout
L5 5672 Trgt 1
L6 5658 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-03-2013
R3 5810
R2 5783
R1 5756
Avg 5729
S1 5702
S2 5675
S3 5648
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5783 Trgt 2
H5 5770 Trgt 1
H4 5758 Long breakout
H3 5743 Go Short
H2 5738
H1 5733
L1 5724
L2 5719
L3 5714 Long
L4 5699 Short Breakout
L5 5687 Trgt 1
L6 5674 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-03-2013
R3 11779
R2 11712
R1 11645
Avg 11578
S1 11511
S2 11444
S3 11377
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11712 Trgt 2
H5 11682 Trgt 1
H4 11651 Long breakout
H3 11614 Go Short
H2 11602
H1 11590
L1 11565
L2 11553
L3 11541 Long
L4 11504 Short Breakout
L5 11473 Trgt 1
L6 11443 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Mar 04 to Mar 08,2013)
R3 6046
R2 596
R1 5840
Avg 5756
S1 5634
S2 5550
S3 5428
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 5926 Trgt 2
H5 5879 Trgt 1
H4 5832 Long breakout
H3 5775 Go Short
H2 5756
H1 5737
L1 5700
L2 5681
L3 5662 Long
L4 5605 Short Breakout
L5 5558 Trgt 1
L6 5511 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Mar 04 to Mar 08,2013)
R3 12722
R2 12430
R1 11985
Avg 11693
S1 11248
S2 10956
S3 10511
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 12285 Trgt 2
H5 12115 Trgt 1
H4 11945 Long breakout
H3 11742 Go Short
H2 11675
H1 11607
L1 11472
L2 11404
L3 11337 Long
L4 11134 Short Breakout
L5 10964 Trgt 1
L6 10794 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(01-03-2013)
Quiet market today after steep fall yesterday and today minor up moves are only correction of yesterday fall. As complely range bound market today and intraday chats are showing mixed patterns therefore follow up moves will be watched next Monday for the confirmations of correction completion/continuation.
As intraday selling also at higher levels today therefore more down moves possibility is still alive.
Mid-session Outlook(01-03-2013)
As sharp down yesterday after disappointing Budget in very short term indicators moving into Oversold zone yesterday therefore minor up moves today. Next strong supports are at 5548.35 and slipping up to that level can not be ruled out. Very short term up moves may be seen any time but decisive up moves will be possible only after complete consolidations.
Pull Back rally may be possible but after some consolidations,let it happen first then will be considered.
Pull Back rally may be possible but after some consolidations,let it happen first then will be considered.
Technical Analysis and Research For 01-03-2013
Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111.
2- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 61 sessions with Neckline at 5823.
3- Neckline Broken down on 26-02-2013
4- 3 Consecutive closing below 5823 in previous sessions.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Pre-Closing Outlook(01-03-2013)
Indian markets gave weakness confirmations yesterday therefore some more down moves are expected and 5548.35 will be watched because good supports there.
Pre-Closing Outlook(28-02-2013)
Routine eventless Budget without big proposals and no significant impact therefore market tumbled during and after Budget. Today is 3rd day below 5823 and today again slipped from it as well as going to close below it also therefore confirmations of 5823 breaking down resultant more down moves possibility toward 5548.
Mid-session Outlook-2(28-02-2013)
As market will react on Budget proposals differently and may be volatile also as well as technical positions reverses in such news based moves therefore next trend confirmations should be finally drawn from forceful break out of 5823 or sustaining it beyond.
Mid-session Outlook(28-02-2013)
Increase of Subsidies and market does not like it therefore emergence of down moves possibilities also and finally sustaining beyond 5823 should be watched after for post Budget market trend.
Post-open Outlook(28-02-2013)
As intraday mixed patterns were seen between 5795-5818 yesterday and fresh consolidation is required for sustaining above it therefore immediate down moves after gap up opening may be for it also. Weakness should not be concluded from today first hour down moves and slipping below 5823 and Stop Loss should be rather longer because volatility may be high today.
Emergence of consolidation indications today therefore development of up moves expectation after Budget.
Emergence of consolidation indications today therefore development of up moves expectation after Budget.
Next Big Trend beyond 5823 after Budget
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Feb-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 5749-5782
2- Mixed Patterns between 5795-5818
3- Whole day actual trading between 5749-5818
As first 3 hours lower levels good consolidations therefore fresh selling is required for sustaining below 5749 but last 3 hours trading with mixed Patterns therefore follow up consolidation is also required for any decisive up move above 5818.
61 previous sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111 and most Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations with Neckline at 5823 within this range. Although its Neckline has already been Broken down on 26-02-2013 but breaking down confirmation is required yet therefore Indian markets are technically well poised to respond and react according to Budget today and finally sustaining beyond Neckline(5823) will give following moves confirmations:-
1- Below 5823 will mean fast 5647/5548
2- Above 5823 will be strong indication of correction correction completion and confirmation will be after valid break out of next multiple resistances up to 6111.
Pre-open Outlook(28-02-2013)
Gap up opening today because strong global cues today morning but market will be quiet before Budget and will be volatile also during Budget speech according to its announcements. As previous 2 sessions closing below Neckline(5823) and today closing below it will mean breaking down confirmation through 3 sessions closing below it but closing above 5823 will also mean indication of strong rally after market and industry favourable Budget.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 5749-5782
2- Mixed Patterns between 5795-5818
3- Whole day actual trading between 5749-5818
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As first 3 hours lower levels good consolidations therefore fresh selling is required for sustaining below 5749 but last 3 hours trading with mixed Patterns therefore follow up consolidation is also required for any decisive up move above 5818.
61 previous sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111 and most Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations with Neckline at 5823 within this range. Although its Neckline has already been Broken down on 26-02-2013 but breaking down confirmation is required yet therefore Indian markets are technically well poised to respond and react according to Budget today and finally sustaining beyond Neckline(5823) will give following moves confirmations:-
1- Below 5823 will mean fast 5647/5548
2- Above 5823 will be strong indication of correction correction completion and confirmation will be after valid break out of next multiple resistances up to 6111.
Pre-open Outlook(28-02-2013)
Gap up opening today because strong global cues today morning but market will be quiet before Budget and will be volatile also during Budget speech according to its announcements. As previous 2 sessions closing below Neckline(5823) and today closing below it will mean breaking down confirmation through 3 sessions closing below it but closing above 5823 will also mean indication of strong rally after market and industry favourable Budget.
Neither Bullish nor Bearish and should be firstly watched sustaining beyond 5823 after Budget for next big trend strong indication
Mid-session Outlook(27-02-2013)
When Nifty was trading in Red near today lower levels then bounce back possibility was told at 10:48 AM today and it was seen also and now Nifty is trading above 5800 as well.
Although I always give range for confirmation of next moves and Trends but can not be given today because news based highly volatile markets and without any base formations.
Firstly validity of yesterday breaking down has to be decided and sustaining beyond 5823 will be watched specially after Budget and then next big trend will be decided accordingly and it should be kept in mind that:-
1- Market is well prepared for big down moves and that will trigger after confirmation of sustaining below 5823.
2- Only big announcements in Budget may save Indian markets from going into Bear grip and strong rally after Budget will be its strong indication as well as confirmation will be after sustaining above crucial Resistances.
Although I always give range for confirmation of next moves and Trends but can not be given today because news based highly volatile markets and without any base formations.
Firstly validity of yesterday breaking down has to be decided and sustaining beyond 5823 will be watched specially after Budget and then next big trend will be decided accordingly and it should be kept in mind that:-
1- Market is well prepared for big down moves and that will trigger after confirmation of sustaining below 5823.
2- Only big announcements in Budget may save Indian markets from going into Bear grip and strong rally after Budget will be its strong indication as well as confirmation will be after sustaining above crucial Resistances.
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