Post-open Outlook-3(07-02-2013)

As intraday charts showed consolidation patterns also despite higher levels selling and closing at lowest of the day yesterday therefore Indian markets are up while most Asian markets are in Red today. 

We did not posted Bearish views yesterday and told for valid break out of 5941-5984 for next trend confirmation. As good recovery from lower levels today therefore sustaining above 5984 should be firstly watched now for correction completion and Short term up moves confirmation.

Post-open Outlook-2(07-02-2013)

Indian markets out performed global cues today and now almost flat after recovering from lower levels while CNX MIDCAP and CNX SMALLCAP are 0.41% and 0.06% up respectively. Now expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 5941-5984 but resistances are at higher levels within this range and follow up consolidation is required for next up trend.

valid break out of 5941-5984 should be firstly watched today for next trend confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(07-02-2013)

As Asian markets are in Red therefore weak opening and Nifty is hovering around crucial support(5941). Firstly sustaining around 5941 should be watched today for those next moves which have already been discussed in previous Outlooks. 

Next Trend Decider 5941-5984

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 05 & Feb 06,2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Consolidations and good intraday supports between 5948-5960 on 06-02-2013
2- Selling between 5978-5984 on 07-02-2013
3- Follow up selling between 5967-5972 on 07-02-2013
4- 7 Times down moves in Bullish falling Channel in both days.
5- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5948-5984

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Indian markets ignored Global cues in both previous sessions and traded in following manner:-

1- on 06-02-2013- When all the Global markets were in deep Red and Asian markets were more than 1.5% down then Indian markets were only 0.50% down and in this manner out performed. Nifty got support and consolidated at lower levels between 5948-5960. 
2- on 07-02-2013- When all the Global markets were in Green,all Asian markets were were positive and Nikkei 225 closed 3.77% up then Indian markets closed flat after loosing all intraday gains and in this manner under performed. Firstly higher levels selling and after that follow up selling also seen before closing at lower levels of the day.

Rally started after consolidation between 5941-5970 in mid-Jan-2013 and supports was seen within this range yesterday. Although selling also seen above this range today but down moves were in Bullish falling Channel in both days therefore emergence of intraday consolidation patterns also and development of Short term up moves expectations as well. 

Nifty traded most time between 6000-6100 in previous 14 sessions and this range broken down but support also emerged above next support(5941) yesterday and selling also seen today.  As completely mixed intraday patterns in both previous sessions therefore valid break out of 5941-5984 should be firstly watched tomorrow for:-

1- Down moves toward 5823 below 5941.
2- Reentering into previous 14 sessions range(6000-6100) above 5984.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 06-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 06-Feb-2013 4047.23 2909.27 1137.96

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 06-Feb-2013 800.41 2024.48 -1224.07

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(06-Feb-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed flat.
2- Closing at lower levels after slipping from higher levels.
3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.83
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.78
Nifty P/E Ratio(06-Feb-2013): 17.92

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,465
BSE Declines : 1,378
NSE Advances :   771
NSE Declines :   710

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- -3,050(-0.96%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)-  717,650(13.70%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)-  10,650(2.35%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)-  330,600(7.67%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)-  298,600(28.05%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)-  377,100(7.34%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)-  474,650(13.01%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)-  28,350(0.68%)

Nifty- 6100  CE(Feb)-  803,650(13.66%)
Nifty- 6100  PE(Feb)-  13,700(0.75%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,639.72(-20.10 Points & -0.10%)
Nifty- closed at 5,959.20(2.30 Points & 0.04%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,238.25(8.35 Points & 0.10%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,579.60(0.00 Points & 0.00%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6018

R2 6004

R1 5981

Avg 5967

S1 5944

S2 5930

S3 5907

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5996     Trgt 2 

H5 5987     Trgt 1

H4 5979     Long breakout 

H3 5969     Go Short 

H2 5965

H1 5962

L1 5955

L2 5952

L3 5948     Long 

L4 5938     Short Breakout 

L5 5930     Trgt 1 

L6 5921     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6015

R2 6004

R1 5988

Avg 5977

S1 5961

S2 5950

S3 5934

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5999     Trgt 2 

H5 5992     Trgt 1

H4 5986     Long breakout 

H3 5979     Go Short 

H2 5976

H1 5974

L1 5969

L2 5967

L3 5964     Long 

L4 5957     Short Breakout 

L5 5951     Trgt 1 

L6 5944     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12665

R2 12619

R1 12543

Avg 12497

S1 12421

S2 12375

S3 12299

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12589     Trgt 2 

H5 12561     Trgt 1

H4 12534     Long breakout 

H3 12500     Go Short 

H2 12489

H1 12478

L1 12455

L2 12444

L3 12433     Long 

L4 12399     Short Breakout 

L5 12372     Trgt 1 

L6 12344     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(06-02-2013)

Whole day narrow range 27 points trading between 5957-5984 with some intraday consolidation patterns formations therefore short term up moves expectations turned alive today despite higher levels selling patterns formations and market is going to close near lower levels also. 

Valid break out of 5940-5984 should also be watched now for next trend confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(06-02-2013)

Indian markets under performed Global cues today,slipped from higher levels,intraday lowest broken down and now trading between yesterday trading range but today intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns also after some higher levels selling between 5978-5984. More follow up preparations are required for any side decisive moves and 5940-5985 should be watched now for those next trend confirmation which have already been updated in previous Outlook.

Post-open Outlook(06-02-2013)

Positive global cues led gap up opening but not sustaining at higher levels and immediate slipping today. Rally started after consolidation between 5940-5970 in mid-Jan-2013 and Nifty traded between 5948-5970 yesterday with lower levels consolidations and good intraday supports between 5948-5960 yesterday,follow up moves today will decide the fate of this support range. As good selling in previous 14 sessions at higher levels therefore complete consolidation is required for any decisive up move above 6000 and it will be decided today through follow up consolidations/distribution today.

Next trend deciding range is 5940-5970 and valid break out of this range should be firstly watched now for:-

1- Correction continuation toward 5823 or
2- Up moves after correction completion toward 6111/6239//6331

Blog will be updated during trading hours today

Mid-session Outlook-2(05-02-2013)

Although all the Global markets were down and some were in deep Red as well as gap down opening was seen in Indian markets also but we were not bearish and gave previous consolidation range(5940-5970) for next moves confirmations. As lower levels supports and consolidations patterns indications also today therefore until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 till then immediate down moves will not be considered. 

Only first signal of correction completion today and complete follow up consolidation is required for valid break out and moves above 5970 as well as reentering into previous 14 sessions range(5989-6111).

Mid-session Outlook(05-02-2013)

Rally was started after consolidation between 5940-5970 in mid-Jan-2013 and Nifty is trading between 5948-5970 since opening today. Follow up technical positions within this range and its valid break out(5940-5970) will be those next moves confirmations which have already been updated in previous Outlook today.

Post-open Outlook(05-02-2013)

Next support is at 5943,minimum 5950 was expected and market achieved its first target after lowest formation at 5,947.90 today. Follow up technical positions today will give indications of following next moves:-

1- After follow up selling correction continuation toward 5823 or
2- Up moves after consolidation and correction completion between 5950-6000

Let market prepare and intraday charts start formations then will be updated according to intraday charts patterns formations. 

Although some Asian markets are more than 1.5% down but Indian markets are 0.50% down therefore outperforming and sustaining beyond 5950 should be firstly watched today for above mentioned next moves confirmations.

NIFTY-Feb Put Option(5900)-Positional BUYing of 04-02-2013-Covering

NIFTY-Feb Put Option(5900)-Positional Bought on 04-02-2013-Premium not increasing,Cover and book profit immediately-CMP-48(Lalit39)

NIFTY-Feb Put Option(5900)-Positional buying of 04-02-2013-Message

NIFTY-Feb Put Option(5900)-Positional Bought on 04-02-2013-Global markets are down.Hold and cover after my covering message(Lalit39)

Correction after 14 Sessions range broken down Confirmation

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6015-6032
3- Whole day actual trading between 5982-6032 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As intraday selling today therefore following lines were told in Mid-session Outlooks today:-

1- At 11:39 AM in Mid-session Outlook:-"intraday selling confirmation at higher levels today" 
2- At 01:31 PM in Mid-session Outlook-3:-"more down moves confirmations below 6000 and possibility of 5950 as well" 
2- At 03:22 PM in Pre-Closing Outlook:-"high possibility of more down moves toward next supports near 5950"

14 Previous sessions actual trading between 5989-6111 with good selling between 6050-6111 and again follow up selling today between previous support range(5989-6033) therefore supports weakened and broken down as well. As 14 sessions range broken down after selling between support range therefore expected that deeper correction will be seen and following supports may also be tested in the coming sessions:- 

1- 5941
2- 5823

Sub-Wave-5 started from 5548 and completed at 6111 therefore its following Fibonacci retracement levels testing possibility should also be kept in mind:-

38.2%- 5895
50.0%- 5829
61.8%- 5763

Expected Picture of on going correction

Sub-Wave-3 of Sub-Wave-5 correction was expected and will be seen also in the coming sessions but strong supports are just above 5548 therefore will not be easily broken and expected that on going correction will complete near about above mentioned levels. As supports(5823)are lying near 50 %(5829) retracement levels therefore correction completion and up moves beginning from near about these levels will be considered if intraday charts will start to show consolidations there. Some up moves after on going correction completion and finally much deeper correction beginning is expected near about Union Budget-2013 from 6111/6239//6331.  

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 04-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 04-Feb-2013 3489.13 2632.19 856.94

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 04-Feb-2013 746.78 1339.11 -592.33

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 04-Feb-2013