Although continuous up moves after low formation at 6025 but without required force therefore emergence of profit booking possibility and confirmation through sustaining above 5026 is must.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Post-open Outlook(15-01-2013)
Immediate slipping after minor gap up opening because weakness in most Asian markets and follow up buying/selling today will decide the fate of of last 9 sessions actual trading range break out above 6026. As more than 5 hours consolidation between 5979-6007 yesterday therefore this range is first support and complete selling is required for its breaking down. As yesterday up moves were due to positive news flow during trading hours also therefore confirmation through sustaining above 5026 is must for strong rally towards minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory).
Valid Break Out Confirmation is Must after 2 Sessions High Volatility
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 11 & Jan 14,2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts
1- Whole day down moves due to tension on Indo-Pak Border last Friday.
2- Whole day up moves due to continuous positive news flow today.
1- More than 5 hours consolidation between 5979-6007 today.
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5941-6037
8 previous sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken down and closing near lowest of the day last Friday due to tension on Indo-Pak Border but Flag meeting between Indo-Pak scheduled for today therefore tension relaxed and sentiment boosted after the positive news of improved December inflation data and positive announcement on GAAR by F.M. therefore closing near the top of the day today. News based high volatility in last 2 sessions and 8 previous sessions range(5950-6026) broken out both sides in following manner:-
1- 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken down last Friday and closing at 5951 after lowest formation at 5941.
2- 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken out today and closing at 6024 after highest formation at 6037.
Although closing near the lowest of the day with closing below the next trend deciding 5965 therefore following line was told in Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing yesterday:-
closing below 5965 was due to most sensitive negative news of tension mounting on LOC therefore sustaining below 5965 should also be firstly watched.
As closing well above 5965 today therefore survival of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 and expectation turned alive for up moves towards its minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory). As more than 5 hours consolidation also between 5979-6007 today therefore today started up moves continuation is expected in the coming session.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Whole day down moves due to tension on Indo-Pak Border last Friday.
2- Whole day up moves due to continuous positive news flow today.
1- More than 5 hours consolidation between 5979-6007 today.
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5941-6037
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
8 previous sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken down and closing near lowest of the day last Friday due to tension on Indo-Pak Border but Flag meeting between Indo-Pak scheduled for today therefore tension relaxed and sentiment boosted after the positive news of improved December inflation data and positive announcement on GAAR by F.M. therefore closing near the top of the day today. News based high volatility in last 2 sessions and 8 previous sessions range(5950-6026) broken out both sides in following manner:-
1- 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken down last Friday and closing at 5951 after lowest formation at 5941.
2- 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken out today and closing at 6024 after highest formation at 6037.
Although closing near the lowest of the day with closing below the next trend deciding 5965 therefore following line was told in Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing yesterday:-
closing below 5965 was due to most sensitive negative news of tension mounting on LOC therefore sustaining below 5965 should also be firstly watched.
As closing well above 5965 today therefore survival of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 and expectation turned alive for up moves towards its minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory). As more than 5 hours consolidation also between 5979-6007 today therefore today started up moves continuation is expected in the coming session.
As news based highly volatile markets in last 2 sessions and today strong up moves were also on the back of continuous positive news flow therefore valid break out confirmation is must through sustaining beyond last 9 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026)
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 14-Jan-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(14-Jan-2013)
1- All the Indices closed in Green except CNX PHARMA.
2- Closing at the highest of the day.
3- Long White candle formation.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.11
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.05
Nifty P/E Ratio(14-Jan-2013):18.92
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,691
BSE Declines : 1,207
NSE Advances : 884
NSE Declines : 557
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -61,050(-5.91%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -39,550(-0.52%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -201,200(-8.88%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- 1,172,000(15.80%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -963,500(-17.95%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- 1,923,200(50.85%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -400,950(-5.75%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- 220,750(11.70%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19,906.41(242.77 Points & 1.23%)
Nifty- closed at 6,024.05(72.75 Points & 1.22%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,664.55(120.55 Points & 1.41%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,854.90(53.40 Points & 1.40%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-01-2013
R3 6126
R2 6081
R1 6052
Avg 6007
S1 5978
S2 5933
S3 5904
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6098 Trgt 2
H5 6081 Trgt 1
H4 6064 Long breakout
H3 6044 Go Short
H2 6037
H1 6030
L1 6017
L2 6010
L3 6003 Long
L4 5983 Short Breakout
L5 5966 Trgt 1
L6 5949 Trgt 2
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-01-2013
R3 6169
R2 6118
R1 6087
Avg 6036
S1 6005
S2 5954
S3 5923
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 6139 Trgt 2
H5 6121 Trgt 1
H4 6102 Long breakout
H3 6079 Go Short
H2 6072
H1 6064
L1 6049
L2 6041
L3 6034 Long
L4 6011 Short Breakout
L5 5992 Trgt 1
L6 5974 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-01-2013
R3 13103
R2 12980
R1 12912
Avg 12789
S1 12721
S2 12598
S3 12530
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 13038 Trgt 2
H5 12994 Trgt 1
H4 12950 Long breakout
H3 12897 Go Short
H2 12880
H1 12862
L1 12827
L2 12809
L3 12792 Long
L4 12739 Short Breakout
L5 12695 Trgt 1
L6 12651 Trgt 2
GAAR will be effected from Apr 2016
Mid-session Outlook-2(14-01-2013)
Finance Minister positive announcement of postponing GAAR for 3 years and will be effected from Apr 2016 as well as acceptance of major proposals of shome committee,it is 2nd positive news after improved December inflation data today and Nifty is trading near 6000 for the last 4 hours.
As intraday consolidation patterns also seen today therefore confirmation of reentering into 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) but more consolidation is required between next resistance range(6000-6026) for crossing and sustaining above 6026.
Follow up moves and valid break out of 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) will give following confirmations:-
1- Above 6026 will mean up moves toward next target between 6239-6331.
2- Below 5950 will mean correction after Sub Wave-5 achieving its 1st target between 6031-6331 at 6042.15 on 07-01-2013.
Mid-session Outlook(14-01-2013)
As negative news flow from Indo-Pak last Friday therefore whole day down moves and closing below 5965 was seen but today trading into last 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) because sentiment improved due to more than 2.45% up moves in Chinese markets and lower levels recovery in all Asian markets. Sentiment again improved due to improved December inflation data and now trading near 6000,next resistance is between 6000-6026 therefore complete consolidation is required for decisive up moves above 6026..
Reentering into 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) and its valid break out will give next trend confirmation therefore should be firstly watched now.
Reentering into 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) and its valid break out will give next trend confirmation therefore should be firstly watched now.
Firstly watch sustaining beyond 5965
Post-open Outlook(14-01-2013)
As last Friday down moves and closing below most crucial and next trend deciding 5965 was due to negative news of Heavy Firing on LOC and tension escalation with Pakistan therefore following line was told in previous Outlook yesterday:-
closing below 5965 was due to most sensitive negative news of tension mounting on LOC therefore sustaining below 5965 should also be firstly watched.
As some Asian markets are trading with good gains therefore positive opening in Indian markets and If Nifty sustains above 5965 then market reentering into last 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) and finally sustaining below 5965 will mean correction beginning after Sub Wave-5 completion at 6042.15 on 07-01-2013.
Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 14 to Jan 18,2013)
Waves Structure of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3
Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Jan-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4 completion and Sub Wave-5 coontinuation)
2- 5865.45 on 11-12-2012 (Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 completion and Sub Wave-2 continuation)
3- 5823.15 on 18-12-2012 (Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5 completion and Sub Wave-3 continuation)
4- 6042.15 on 07-01-2013 (Top of Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5)
5- Closing below Sub Wave-1 top(5865.45) on 11-01-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
As Sub Wave-3 continuation in previous week therefore its minimum target(as per Elliot Wave theory) of 6239.95 with calculation was updated on 08-01-2013 as well as condition of closing above 5965 was also posted on 07-01-2013. As intraday Bullish patterns formations on 10-01-2013 therefore expectation of rally continuation was told on 10-01-2013 and it was seen also on 11-01-2013 but sentiment turned depressed due to escalation of Indo-Pak cross border firing therefore Indian markets could not sustain at higher levels and closed below 5965 on 11-01-2013.
As closing below 5965 on 11-01-2013 therefore as per Elliot Wave theory strong indication of failure of Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 and emergence of correction possibility as well. Now Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on and when its formation was got confirmation then following topic was posted on 08-12-2012:-
Rally after Short Term Correction
Just click above topic link for detaied analysis and those important features which should be immediately considered are also being reproduced with EOD chart of that day:-
Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Dec-2012):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-2 completion(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 gained 578.20 points(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after Sub Wave-4 correction completion with Bullish Flag formation therefore strong up moves will be seen. As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5. Wave-3 gained 782.95 points as per theory Sub Wave-5 will gain less than 782.95 point from the bottom of Wave-4(5548.35) therefore Sub Wave-5 maximum target will be less than 6331.30(5548.35+782.95). Previous tops above 6000 are as follows:-
1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008.
2- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.
As on going Sub Wave-5 rally possible maximum target is near 6331 therefore Triple Top formation may be seen. Expected that Sub Wave-5 will not gain less than 61.8% of Sub Wave-3 gains and Sub Wave-5 targets should be between 6031-6331.
As on going Sub Wave-5 made a top of 6042.15 on 07-01-2013 and it is above 6031(calculation given above) therefore Sub Wave-5 at 6042.15 can not be ruled out.
Indicators showing Negative Divergence
Nifty-Daily Indicators Analysis Chart(11-Jan-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Sub Wave-5 is moving up while 4 indicators are moving down therefore Negative Divergence is clearly visible in EOD charts and strong possibility of whole Sub Wave-5 correction.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Following possibilities were updated in previous sessions:-
1- Sub Wave-5 minimum and maximum targets between 6031-6331 was given on 08-12-2012.
2- Minimum target(as per Elliot Wave theory) of 6239.95 with calculation was updated on 08-01-2013 as well as condition of closing above 5965 was also posted on 07-01-2013.
As closing of Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 below 5965 on 11-01-2013 therefore strong indication of its failure without achieving next target(6239.95) but closing below 5965 was due to most sensitive negative news of tension mounting on LOC therefore sustaining below 5965 should also be firstly watched. If Nifty sustains above 5965 then whole Sub Wave-5 correction will start from any levels between 6239.95-6331 and finally sustaining below 5965 will mean Sub Wave-5 completion at 6042.15 on 07-01-2013.
Sustaining below 5965 in the coming week will mean possibility of whole Sub Wave-5 correction which started from 4770.35 on 04-06-2012 and completed at 6042.15 on 07-01-2013 after gaining 1271.80 points. As correction beginning possibility after Sub Wave-5 achieving its targets at 6042.15(between 6031-6331) therefore deeper correction can not be ruled out. Let correction beginning confirmation come then size of correction,next Levels and crucial supports will be updated.
As on going impulsive View Sub Wave-5 has achieved its 1st target and negative news of Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing also and sentiment has turned dampened as well as view is cautious therefore sustaining beyond 5965 should be firstly watched for the confirmation of last Friday started correction continuation or correction beginning possibility between 6239.95-6331.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-Jan-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(11-Jan-2013)
1- All the Indices closed in Red except CNX IT and CNX MEDIA.
2- Heavy Firing on LOC news led down moves.
3- Black Candle formation.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.01
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.97
Nifty P/E Ratio(11-Jan-2013):18.68
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 954
BSE Declines :1,995
NSE Advances : 412
NSE Declines :1,336
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- 2,050(0.31%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- 1,271,300(19.24%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- 36,800(3.70%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- 11,650(0.15%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- 162,700(7.74%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- 613,250(9.01%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- 402,900(8.12%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- -661,450(-14.89%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- 31,150(11.71%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- -77,450(-3.94%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19,663.64(0.09 Points & 0.00%)
Nifty- closed at 5,951.30(-17.35 Points & -0.29%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,544.00(-155.55 Points & -1.79%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,801.50(-56.95 Points & -1.48%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-01-2013
R3 6077.33
R2 6047.67
R1 5999.33
Avg 5969.67
S1 5921.33
S2 5891.67
S3 5843.33
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6029 Trgt 2
H5 6011 Trgt 1
H4 5993 Long breakout
H3 5972 Go Short
H2 5965
H1 5958
L1 5943
L2 5936
L3 5929 Long
L4 5908 Short Breakout
L5 5890 Trgt 1
L6 5872 Trgt 2
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-01-2013
R3 6089.33
R2 6063.67
R1 6020.33
Avg 5994.67
S1 5951.33
S2 5925.67
S3 5882.33
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 6046 Trgt 2
H5 6030 Trgt 1
H4 6014 Long breakout
H3 5995 Go Short
H2 5989
H1 5983
L1 5970
L2 5964
L3 5958 Long
L4 5939 Short Breakout
L5 5923 Trgt 1
L6 5907 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-01-2013
R3 13068.33
R2 12976.67
R1 12829.33
Avg 12737.67
S1 12590.33
S2 12498.67
S3 12351.33
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 12921 Trgt 2
H5 12867 Trgt 1
H4 12813 Long breakout
H3 12747 Go Short
H2 12725
H1 12703
L1 12660
L2 12638
L3 12616 Long
L4 12550 Short Breakout
L5 12496 Trgt 1
L6 12442 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 14 to Jan 18,2013)
R3 6116.00
R2 6079.00
R1 6015.00
Avg 5978.00
S1 5914.00
S2 5877.00
S3 5813.00
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 6052 Trgt 2
H5 6029 Trgt 1
H4 6006 Long breakout
H3 5978 Go Short
H2 5969
H1 5960
L1 5941
L2 5932
L3 5923 Long
L4 5895 Short Breakout
L5 5872 Trgt 1
L6 5849 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 14 to Jan 18,2013)
R3 13029.00
R2 12933.00
R1 12775.00
Avg 12679.00
S1 12521.00
S2 12425.00
S3 12267.00
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 12871 Trgt 2
H5 12814 Trgt 1
H4 12756 Long breakout
H3 12686 Go Short
H2 12663
H1 12640
L1 12593
L2 12570
L3 12547 Long
L4 12477 Short Breakout
L5 12419 Trgt 1
L6 12362 Trgt 2
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