Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-10-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 19 to Oct 22,2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- More than 6 hours trading within 5692-5721 in last 2 sessions
2- Selling within 5692-5721 last Friday and today again intraday selling formations within this range.

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Nifty traded more than 6 hours within 5692-5721 in last 2 sessions and also closed neat the top within this range today but 2 hours selling seen within this range last Friday and today also selling formations within this range. Although Nifty closed near the highs of the day today but selling formations in last more than 4 hours intraday charts.

As 6 hours selling formations in last 2 sessions intraday charts therefore correction continuation  possibility through slipping below 5692 is alive. 20 Sessions most time trading between 5639-5733 and Short Term Trend is sideways after 600 points strong rally in 21 sessions from 05-09-2012 to 05-10-2012 therefore finally sustaining beyond 5639-5733 will give confirmation to deeper correction below 5639 or strong rally above 5733. 

Sustaining beyond above mentioned 6 hours range(5692-5721) will be first indication and finally sustaining beyond previous 20 Sessions most time trading range(5639-5733) will be confirmation 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 22-Oct-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 22-Oct-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 22-Oct-2012 1882.71 1641.03 241.68

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 22-Oct-2012 741.38 879.27 -137.89

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(22-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
2- Smallcap closing in Red.
3- Long White Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.18
Nifty P/E Ratio(22-Oct-2012): 17.97

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,367
BSE Declines : 1,488
NSE Advances :   840
NSE Declines :   915

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Oct)- -71,000(-9.25%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Oct)- -882,750(-13.22%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- -117,900(-6.89%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)- 1,554,900(22.86%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- -904,400(-14.60%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)- 773,850(14.13%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Oct)- 979,650(9.12%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Oct)- 335,550(29.00%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,793.44(111.13 Points & 0.59%)
Nifty- closed at 5,717.15(32.90 Points & 0.58%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,909.25(5.40 Points & 0.07%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,507.10(-21.45 Points & -0.61%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-10-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5802
R2 5761
R1 5739
Avg 5698
S1 5676
S2 5635
S3 5613

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5780     Trgt 2
H5 5766     Trgt 1
H4 5751     Long breakout
H3 5734     Go Short
H2 5728
H1 5722
L1 5711
L2 5705
L3 5699     Long
L4 5682     Short Breakout
L5 5667     Trgt 1
L6 5653     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5811
R2 5770
R1 5747
Avg 5706
S1 5683
S2 5642
S3 5619

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5788     Trgt 2
H5 5773     Trgt 1
H4 5759     Long breakout
H3 5741     Go Short
H2 5735
H1 5729
L1 5718
L2 5712
L3 5706     Long
L4 5688     Short Breakout
L5 5674     Trgt 1
L6 5659     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 11876
R2 11755
R1 11687
Avg 11566
S1 11498
S2 11377
S3 11309

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11811     Trgt 2
H5 11767     Trgt 1
H4 11723     Long breakout
H3 11671     Go Short
H2 11654
H1 11637
L1 11602
L2 11585
L3 11568     Long
L4 11516     Short Breakout
L5 11472     Trgt 1
L6 11428     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(22-10-2012)

Nifty moved above 5714 but without force therefore could not sustained above and retraced within last 2 sessions most traded range(5692-5714). 

Nifty trading more than 6 hours within 5692-5721 in last 2 sessions. Selling seen within this range last Friday and today also intraday selling formations are being felt within this range. 

Although Nifty is trading near the highs of the day at this moment but selling within last 2 sessions 6 hours trading range(5692-5721) therefore possibility of slipping below 5692 and correction continuation is still alive. Let Nifty sustaining above 5733/5756 then rally continuation after correction completion will get confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(22-10-2012)

All the Asian markets jumped from intraday lower levels today and sentiment improved therefore good recovery seen in Indian markets also today.

Intraday selling seen between 5693-5710 last Friday and today again trading within same range with the last more than 2 hours trading between 5692-5714.

As more than 5 hours trading between 5692-5714 in last 2 sessions therefore break out of this range will be 1st indication of next trend and should be firstly watched now.

Big Moves are Ripe after 19 Sideways Sessions

Technical Analysis,Research Weekly Outlook

(Oct 22 to Oct 25,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Oct-2012):-

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1Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Sub Wave-4 of  Wave-3(5215.70 on 05-09-2012)
2- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 (5815.35 on 05-10-2012
3- Sub Wave-5 gained 600 points strong rally in 21 sessions from 05-09-2012 to 05-10-2012
4- 19 Sessions sideways trading between between 5639-5733/5756
5- Last 10 corrective sessions trading between 5639-5733 from 08-09-2012
6- Long Term trend decider 200-Day SMA at 5257
7- Long Term trend decider 200-Day EMA at 5307
7- Correction in previous 2 weeks.
8- Weekly Doji Candle formation in previous week.
9- Bull Bear Tussle between 5639-5756 in last 4 weeks.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

21 sessions 600 points strong rally from 05-09-2012 to 05-10-2012 but its correction is very much on from the last 10 sessions and most time sideways trading between 5639-5733. Long Term and Intermediate Term Trends are up and Short Term Trend is sideways through 19 Sessions most time sideways trading between 5639-5733. It is confirm that big moves are being ripe in last 19 sessions between 5639-5733 but higher levels good selling and lower levels strong supports within this range therefore Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive big move.

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Oct-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Wave-2 completion and Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5348.55 on 10-07-2012(Sub Wave-1 of  Wave-3)
3- 5032.40 on 26-07-2012(Sub Wave-2 of  Wave-3)
4- 5448.40 on 23-08-2012(Sub Wave-3 of  Wave-3)
5- 5215.70 on 05-09-2012(Sub Wave-4 of  Wave-3)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 completion at 5815.35 on 05-10-2012
7- 10 Sessions sideways correction between 5639-5733.
8- 19 Sessions most time trading between between 5639-5733 near the

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

'ABC' correction of Wave-3 is also due after its Sub Wave-5 completion at 5815.35. Deeper correction confirmation after sustaining below 5639 will mean 'ABC' correction possibility to correct whole  Wave-3 rally from 4770.35 to 5815.35.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 completion confirmation and its correction is continued through 10 Sessions sideways trading between 5639-5733. Certainly big moves possibilities have also emerged after last 19 sessions sideways moves between 5639-5733 but technical positions within this range are quite balanced because good selling at higher levels and strong supports with intraday consolidation seen at lower levels in last 19 sideways sessions.

As good selling seen at higher levels last Friday therefore slipping below 5639 can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week but sustaining below is must for deeper correction confirmation with 'ABC' correction possibility.

Final break out of previous 19 Sessions most time trading range(5639-5756) should be firstly watched next Monday because that will give confirmation to following decisive moves:-

1- Sustaining above 5756 will mean rally continuation after completion of sideways correction.
2- Sustaining below 5639 will mean deeper correction with high possibility of 'ABC' correction of Wave-3

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 19-Oct-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 19-Oct-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 19-Oct-2012 2255.89 2175.78 80.11

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 19-Oct-2012 1025.99 913.93 112.06

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(19-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Red except CNX FMCG.
2- Down moves after selling at higher levels.
3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.96
Nifty P/E Ratio(19-Oct-2012): 17.86

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1240
BSE Declines : 1619
NSE Advances :  537
NSE Declines :  919

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Oct)- -52,350(-6.39%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Oct)- -98,500(-1.45%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)-  64,300(3.90%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)- -1,953,900(-22.32%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)-  920,200(17.45%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)- -1,582,050(-22.42%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Oct)-  1,209,500(12.68%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Oct)- -651,700(-36.03%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,682.31(-109.62 Points & -0.58%)
Nifty- closed at 5,684.25(-34.45 Points & -0.60%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,903.85(-41.50 Points & -0.52%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,528.55(-16.85 Points & -0.48%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-10-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5762

R2 5737

R1 5710

Avg 5685

S1 5658

S2 5633

S3 5606

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5736     Trgt 2 

H5 5724     Trgt 1

H4 5712     Long breakout 

H3 5698     Go Short 

H2 5693

H1 5688

L1 5679

L2 5674

L3 5669     Long 

L4 5655     Short Breakout 

L5 5643     Trgt 1 

L6 5631     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5773
R2 5747
R1 5717
Avg 5691
S1 5661
S2 5635
S3 5605

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  5744    Trgt 2
H5  5731    Trgt 1
H4  5718    Long breakout
H3  5703    Go Short
H2  5698
H1  5693
L1  5682
L2  5677
L3  5672    Long
L4  5657    Short Breakout
L5  5644    Trgt 1
L6  5631    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 11792

R2 11710

R1 11607

Avg 11525

S1 11422

S2 11340

S3 11237

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  11691    Trgt 2 

H5  11648    Trgt 1

H4  11606    Long breakout 

H3  11555    Go Short 

H2  11538

H1  11521

L1  11488

L2  11471

L3  11454    Long 

L4  11403    Short Breakout 

L5  11361    Trgt 1 

L6  11319    Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 22 to Oct 25,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5815
R2 5769
R1 5726
Avg 5680
S1 5637
S2 5591
S3 5548

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6  5773    Trgt 2
H5  5753    Trgt 1
H4  5732    Long breakout
H3  5708    Go Short
H2  5700
H1  5692
L1  5675
L2  5667
L3  5659    Long
L4  5635    Short Breakout
L5  5614    Trgt 1
L6  5594    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 22 to Oct 25,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 11953

R2 11779

R1 11635

Avg 11461

S1 11317

S2 11143

S3 10999

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 11814     Trgt 2 

H5 11740     Trgt 1

H4 11665     Long breakout 

H3 11578     Go Short 

H2 11549

H1 11520

L1 11461

L2 11432

L3 11403     Long 

L4 11316     Short Breakout 

L5 11241     Trgt 1 

L6 11167     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook-2(19-10-2012)

20 sessions sideways market range(5639-5733) with higher levels good selling and lower levels strong supports. As good selling at higher levels today therefore market slipped but got intraday supports also at lower levels.

Big moves are being riped in last 20 sessions between 5639-5733 but higher levels good selling lower levels strong supports therefore forceful break out and sustaining beyond 5639-5733 will be next big moves confirmation.

Pre-Closing Outlook(19-10-2012)

Follow up good selling at higher levels today. As today selling is within and below previous resistance range(5700-5733) therefore more down will be seen to test again levels near 5639 and possibility of slipping below it also.

Mid-session Outlook-3(19-10-2012)

As soon as intraday selling emerged then it was immediately updated within 1st hour today in Post-open Outlook(19-10-2012). Although Nifty slipped forcefully below 5685 after higher levels selling today but strong supports also above 5639 therefore complete follow up selling is required for decisive down moves below 5639.

Following line should be kept in mind which was told today in Mid-session Outlook-2:-

"sustaining beyond 5685 should be firstly watched today"