Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5833
R2 5804
R1 5752
Avg 5723
S1 5671
S2 5642
S3 5590

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5782     Trgt 2
H5 5763     Trgt 1
H4 5745     Long breakout
H3 5723     Go Short
H2 5715
H1 5708
L1 5693
L2 5686
L3 5678     Long
L4 5656     Short Breakout
L5 5638     Trgt 1
L6 5619     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 11715
R2 11649
R1 11532
Avg 11466
S1 11349
S2 11283
S3 11166

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11598     Trgt 2
H5 11556     Trgt 1
H4 11515     Long breakout
H3 11465     Go Short
H2 11448
H1 11431
L1 11398
L2 11381
L3 11364     Long
L4 11314     Short Breakout
L5 11273     Trgt 1
L6 11231     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(08-10-2012)

First 3 hours negative zone side ways trading between 5715-5730 with intraday selling patterns between 5721-5730 and slow slipping below last Friday intraday support(5707) after opening of European markets.

As selliing below 5707 also seen therefore expected that Nifty will sustain below it and last Friday begun correction will remain continued.

Post-open Outlook(08-10-2012)

As all the Asian markets are in Red and sentiment is weak today morning therefore weaker opening seen in Indian markets and Nifty traded most time between last Friday supports(5707-5730) and today achual trading range is 5720-5733.

Next moves first indication will be from sustaining beyond 5707-5733 with following possibilities:-

1- Sustaining below 5707 will mean high possibility of deeper correction beginning. 
2- Firstly sustaining above 5733 and after that sustaining above 5756 will mean on going rally continuation after narrow range correction completion.

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Oct 08 to Oct 12,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Oct-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Sub Wave-1(5348.55 ON 10-07-2012)
5- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
6- Sub Wave-3(5448.40 on 23-08-2012)
7- Sub Wave-4(5215.70 on 05-09-2012)
8- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after correction completion
9- Engulfing Bearish candle fomation on 05-10-2012
10- Impulsive Wave-3 continuation.
11- Overbought MACD.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

As sentiment turned heated after 21 sessions 600 Nifty points strong rally from 05-09-2012 to 05-10-2012 therefore minimum intrarday correction was required and it was seen last Friday as well as Engulfing Bearish candle formation also on EOD Charts.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart after 10:06AM (05-Oct-2012):-

Nifty opened after Circuit Filter at 10:06AM and resumed trading from  at 5756 as well as traded most time below 5756 therefore intra Day Chart analysis of post Circuit Filter moves are being given:-

Nifty-Intra Day Chart after 10:06AM (05-Oct-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts after 10:06AM:- 

1- Support between 5707-5730
2- Falling Channel between 5726-5749

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly fast up moves after lower circuit opening but could not sustain at higher levels and Nifty traded most time below post lower circuit opening(5756). As Nifty got intraday supports at lower level between 5707-5730 and consolidation formations seen therefore on going rally continuation is expected after intraday correction completion through Circuit Filter led huge panic on 05-10-2012.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and impulsive Wave-3 continuation as well as short term indicators are overbought therefore required correction was seen last Friday. Bullish rally in full force and in such strong up moves sometimes market completes corrections at higher levels or within narrow range moves,until any crucial support will not be broken down decisively till then deeper correction will not be considered. Indicators are overbought and Engulfing Bearish candle formation on 05-10-2012 but deeper correction begins after complete distribution patterns on EOD charts in such Bullish rallies therefore let it happen first then correction will be seen.

Rally is continued and and expected that Nifty will test now next resistance of 5870-5910.Next strong supports are between 5639-5680 and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then deep correction will not be considered.

Bullish rally is on and minimum target of Nifty is at 5869.15,its testing is also expected in the coming weeks but intra day correction with high volatility seen last Friday and technical positions reverses in such confusing sentiments therefore next moves confirmation is firstly required through sustaining beyond 5707-5756.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(05-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Most Indices closed in Red but AUTO,ENERGY,FMCG,MNC & PHARMA Indices sectors closed in Green.
3- Black Candle formation today.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.13
Nifty P/E Ratio(05-Oct-2012): 18.17

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1028
BSE Declines : 1849
NSE Advances :  416
NSE Declines : 1061

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- 200,150(13.01%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)- 50,200(0.90%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- 415,500(13.40%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)- 284,000(5.10%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Oct)- 1,747,000(35.90%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Oct)- 159,150(5.62%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Oct)- 1,044,600(20.58%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Oct)- 17,000(1.69%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,746.95(-40.65 Points & -0.70%)
Sensex- closed at 18,938.46(-119.69 Points & -0.63% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,934.40(-73.25 Points & -0.91%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,510.95(-25.35 Points & -0.72%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 05-Oct-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 05-Oct-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 05-Oct-2012 6806.29 2454.3 4351.99

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 05-Oct-2012 1439.55 1628.65 -189.1

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-10-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5913
R2 5864
R1 5805
PIVOT 5756
S1 5697
S2 5648
S3 5589

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5854     Trgt 2
H5 5830     Trgt 1
H4 5805     Long breakout
H3 5775     Go Short
H2 5765
H1 5755
L1 5736
L2 5726
L3 5716     Long
L4 5686     Short Breakout
L5 5661     Trgt 1
L6 5637     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5966
R2 5910
R1 5843
PIVOT 5787
S1 5720
S2 5664
S3 5597

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5899     Trgt 2
H5 5871     Trgt 1
H4 5843     Long breakout
H3 5809     Go Short
H2 5798
H1 5787
L1 5764
L2 5753
L3 5742     Long
L4 5708     Short Breakout
L5 5680     Trgt 1
L6 5652     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 12041
R2 11922
R1 11748
PIVOT 11629
S1 11455
S2 11336
S3 11162

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11869     Trgt 2
H5 11802     Trgt 1
H4 11736     Long breakout
H3 11655     Go Short
H2 11628
H1 11601
L1 11548
L2 11521
L3 11494     Long
L4 11413     Short Breakout
L5 11347     Trgt 1
L6 11280     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 08 to Oct 12,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5930
R2 5872
R1 5809
PIVOT 5751
S1 5688
S2 5630
S3 5567

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6  5868    Trgt 2
H5  5840    Trgt 1
H4  5812    Long breakout
H3  5779    Go Short
H2  5768
H1  5757
L1  5734
L2  5723
L3  5712    Long
L4  5679    Short Breakout
L5  5651    Trgt 1
L6  5623    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 08 to Oct 12,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 12099
R2 11922
R1 11716
PIVOT 11539
S1 11333
S2 11156
S3 10950

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 11899     Trgt 2
H5 11810     Trgt 1
H4 11721     Long breakout
H3 11616     Go Short
H2 11581
H1 11546
L1 11475
L2 11440
L3 11405     Long
L4 11300     Short Breakout
L5 11211     Trgt 1
L6 11122     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(05-10-2012)

Firstly fast up moves after lower circuit but after that again down moves and formation of higher intraday lows at 5707 at 11:30AM. As last more than 3 hours intraday trading between 5707-5750 after lower levels supports and consolidation formations also therefore on going rally continuation is expected after intraday correction completion through  huge panic of today.

Sentiment disturbs after today like big volatility and technical positions reverses also therefore next moves confirmation is also required through sustaining beyond 5707-5750.

NSE: Big Selling Order and No Technical Fault today

Mid-session Outlook(05-10-2012)

NSE says that whole trading was normal and no technical snag today. Sudden fall and stopping of trading was the result of big selling order as well as hitting of circuit filters.

Trading resumed again but Nifty lost all the gains of yesterday and traded more than 1.30% down today. Next strong supports are between 5639-5680 and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then deep correction will noy be considered.

Minor recovery seen after forming low at 5707 today and Nifty sustaining it above today will be intraday correction completion after sharp panic.

Huge volatility after technical problems

Huge volatility after NSE technical problems,it is the result of uncertainty and sentimental disturbances also. Market is not showing genuine levels,let market stabilize then trading should be done.

Technical Faults of NSE Syatems removed

High swings and Nifty turned more than 150 points down suddenly as well as BANK NIFTY was also down 13%,certainly technical faults developed in NSE systems. Although BSE was trading normal but volatile. 

Now technical faults have been remove and normal market is started but trading should be done after understanding achual and realistic levels.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(05-10-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Oct-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Most of the time range bound moves between 5777-5807
2- Consolidation between 5777-5790
3- Whole day acual trading between 5752-5807

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly half hour surge and after that whole day range bound moves between 5777-5807 with lower levels consolidation between 5777-5790 on 05-10-2012. As no distribution patterns and whole day intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations therefore rally continuation is expected.

Pre-open Outlook(05-10-2012)

All trends are up and bullish rally is on as well as all the Asian markets are positive after moderate up moves in US markets therefore sentiment is heated today morning and volatility after higher levels profit booking can not be ruled out today.

Long positions should be created after intraday correction completion.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 04-Oct-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 04-Oct-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 04-Oct-2012 3245.74 2301.21 944.53

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 04-Oct-2012 1327.64 2146.2 -818.56

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(04-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green with good gains.
2- All the Indices closed in Green except CNX AUTO,CNX IT and CNX PHARMA.
3- Long White Candle.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.01
Nifty P/E Ratio(04-Oct-2012): 18.25

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1698
BSE Declines : 1261
NSE Advances :  896
NSE Declines :  578

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- -221,050(-12.57%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)-  489,900(9.62%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- -385,800(-11.07%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)-  729,150(15.07%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Oct)- -1,004,250(-17.11%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Oct)-  1,334,050(89.21%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Oct)- 332,650(7.01%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Oct)- 381,400(61.16%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,787.60(56.35 Points & 0.98%)
Sensex- closed at 19,058.15(188.46 Points & 1.00% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,007.65(32.30 Points & 0.40%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,536.30(17.40 Points & 0.49%)