Technical Analysis and Research For 23-05-2012

Nifty-EOD Chart (22-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

All trends are down in Wave-2 correction and its bottom formation at 4788.95.95 on 18-05-2012. Although some up moves seen after bottom formation on 18-05-2012 but correction completion confirmation is required yet. As weakening of Indian Rupee therefore Indian markets moved down yesterday and could not be able to respond positive Global cues.

Minor supports at lower levels and multiple resistances at higher levels and market require compltete consolidation for any decisive up move and only Pull Back rally will be seen after after getting supports at lower levels.

Pre-open Outlook(23-05-2012)

All the Asian markets are in deep Red with most Indices are more than 1% down today morning therefore sentiment is weak today morning and negaive opening will be seen in Indian markets. Following supports should be firstly watched:-

1- 4790-4807
2- 4635-4663
3- 4602-4624
4- 4560-4590 

Next Resistances are as follows;-

1-4904-4955
2-5003-5036
3-5065-5125

Most depressed sentiment today morning therefore volatile market is expected and until Nifty will not sustaining minimum first resistance(4955) till then any up move will not be considered. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 4790-4904 and its break out will give next moves first indication.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(22-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long Black Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Red except IT.
3- Sharp down with weakening of Indian Rupee.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.88
Nifty P/E Ratio(22-May-2012): 16.46

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1051
BSE Declines : 1618
NSE Advances :  508
NSE Declines :  887

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(May)- -15950(-1.83%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(May)- +913200(+13.16%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +473000(+17.94%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +250900(+3.79%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +677200(+13.85%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- -258400(-4.46%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +1150850(+19.23%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- +8800(+0.24%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- -512350(-7.12%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -76850(-2.90%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,860.50(-45.55 Points & -0.93%)
Sensex- closed at 16,026.41(-156.85 Points & -0.97% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,857.35(-45.90 Points & -0.66%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,274.69(-42.72 Points & -0.68%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 22-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 22-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 22-May-2012 1611.91 1895.25 -283.34

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 22-May-2012 927.65 720.05 207.6

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5034
R2 4995
R1 4927
Avg  4888
S1 4820
S2 4781
S3 4713

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4967     Trgt 2
H5 4943     Trgt 1
H4 4918     Long breakout
H3 4889     Go Short
H2 4879
H1 4869
L1 4850
L2 4840
L3 4830     Long
L4 4801     Short Breakout
L5 4776     Trgt 1
L6 4752     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5020
R2 4980
R1 4910
Avg  4870
S1 4800
S2 4760
S3 4690

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4951     Trgt 2
H5 4926     Trgt 1
H4 4901     Long breakout
H3 4871     Go Short
H2 4861
H1 4851
L1 4830
L2 4820
L3 4810     Long
L4 4780     Short Breakout
L5 4755     Trgt 1
L6 4730     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9648
R2 9548
R1 9366
Avg  9266
S1 9084
S2 8984
S3 8802

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9466     Trgt 2
H5 9402     Trgt 1
H4 9339     Long breakout
H3 9261     Go Short
H2 9235
H1 9209
L1 9158
L2 9132
L3 9106     Long
L4 9028    Short Breakout
L5 8965     Trgt 1
L6 8901     Trgt 2

Post-open Outlook(22-05-2012)

Nifty slipped below 4937 immediately after positive opening today. Selling was between 4928-4937 yesterday and Nifty is trading between this range for the last 45 Minutes after forming lows at 4927.15.

Although Pull Back Rally continuation is expected after sustaining above 4937 but Petroleum Price hike may also be seen within couple of sessions therefore volatility may be seen.

Nifty is trading exactly at 4937 at this moment therefore firstly watch sustaining it beyond for next moves confirmations.

Pull Back rally continuation after its formation through consolidations

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 4904-4918
2- Selling between 4928-4937
3- New bottom formation after sharp fall
4- Whole day trading between 4889-4937

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Clear supports at lower levels but selling patterns were also seen at higher levels yesterday. Although intraday technical correction through last half hour sharp fall with new bottom formation was also seen yesterday therefore sustaining beyond yesterday trading range is main demand for next short term moves confirmations.

Pre-open Outlook(22-05-2012)

Nowadays main trigger comes from Global markets and all the Asian markets are in Green today after strong recovery in all the European and US markets therefore sentiment is pleasant today morning and positive opening will be seen in Indian markets.

Following Weekly topic was posted on 19-05-2012.

Only Watch 4790-4907 Break out for Short Term / Intermediate Term Trend

As yesterday closing was at 4906.05 therefore no damage to supports below 4907 despite sharp fall yesterday. As intraday selling formations were seen between 4928-4937 yesterday therefore sustaing above 4937 is must today for next up moves confirmation.

Next 4 Resistances of last 11 sessions are as follows:-

R1-4904-4922
R2-4936-4953
R3-5003-5036
R4-5065-5125

As 4904-4922 was resistance therefore sharp fall was seen within this range yesterday for consolidations and snatching buying positions from weaker traders. Multiple resistances at higher levels therefore complete consolidations are rquired for decisive up moves.

Expected that market will sustain above 4937 and Pull Back rally continuation will be seen after its formation through higher levels consolidations today and in the coming sessions.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 21-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 21-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 21-May-2012 1334.72 1414.31 -79.59

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 21-May-2012 662.44 513.24 149.2

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4981
R2 4959
R1 4932.67
Avg 4910
S1 4883
S2 4861
S3 4834

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4955     Trgt 2
H5 4944     Trgt 1
H4 4932     Long breakout
H3 4919     Go Short
H2 4914
H1 4910
L1 4901
L2 4897
L3 4892     Long
L4 4879     Short Breakout
L5 4867     Trgt 1
L6 4856     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 4971
R2 4951
R1 4922
Avg 4902
S1 4873
S2 4853
S3 4824

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4942     Trgt 2
H5 4931     Trgt 1
H4 4919     Long breakout
H3 4906     Go Short
H2 4901
H1 4897
L1 4888
L2 4884
L3 4879    Long
L4 4866    Short Breakout
L5 4854     Trgt 1
L6 4843     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9560
R2 9487
R1 9412
Avg 9339
S1 9264
S2 9191
S3 9116

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9486     Trgt 2
H5 9452     Trgt 1
H4 9418     Long breakout
H3 9377    Go Short
H2 9364
H1 9350
L1 9323
L2 9309
L3 9296     Long
L4 9255     Short Breakout
L5 9221     Trgt 1
L6 9187     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(21-05-2012)

Indian markets showed out performnace in first session but did not responded in the Mid Session after good recovery in US Futures and European markets. Dow's Futures is more than 75 points up and all the European markets have turned positive but Indian markets slipped from intra day highs.

Clear supports at lower levels but selling patterns also seen at higher levels therefore today trading range (4904-4936) break out should be firstly watched out for next short term confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(21-05-2012)

Asian markets are mixed but All the European markets are in Red but Indian markets are again out performing today with trading .50% up. Last 3 hours trading betwen 4904-4924 with intraday mixed patterns. As Indian markets are sustaining in Green despite negative European markets thereofore it is a signal of strength.

Sustaining above 4924 will be continuation confirmation of last Friday begun up move.

Only Watch 4790-4907 Break out for Short Term / Intermediate Term Trend

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

 (May 21 to May 25,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (18-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 5629.95 on 22-02-2012.
2- Corrective Wave-2 continuation.
3- Breaking down confirmation after 9 sessions sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA.
4- 61 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation)
5- Support at the bottom of Lower Falling Trend Line of  Falling Channel on 18-05-2012

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

All the trends are down and Indian markets are in the grip of Bears. Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through 9 sessions sustaing below 200-Day SMA during on going correction. Nifty got support at Lower Falling Trend Line of  Falling Channel on 18-05-2012 anf fast recovery seen also.

4 Supports & 4 Resistances in Last 10 Days

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 07 to May 18,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 10 days intraday charts

4 Supports of last 10 sessions are as follows:-

S1- 4790-4807
S2- Double Bottom support at 4852.
S3- 4840-4860
S4- 4877-4907

4 Resistances of last 10 sessions are as follows:-

R1-4904-4922
R2-4936-4953
R3-5003-5036
R4-5065-5125

Conclusions from 10 days intra day chart analysis 

Strong recovery after gap down opening on 18-05-2012 as well as crossing all 3 previous supports because gap down opening was the result of Global markets crash. As market slipped after good selling therefore 4 resistances also developed in last 10 sessions.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are down and Indian markets are in Bear phase and multiple resistances are at higher levels therefore complete consolidation is required for crossing and sustaining above resistances. Nifty has to face following resistances also after crossing above mentioned 4 resistances of on going 61 sessions correction:-

1- Resistance between 5190-5305
2- Resistance between 5318-5337
3- Resistance between 5357-5377
4- Resistance between 5418-5487
5- Resistance between 5588-5625

Fibonacci Retracement Levels of previous rally(4531-5629) are as follows:-

13.0%- 5486(Tested)
23.6%- 5369(Tested)
27.0%- 5332(Tested)
38.2%- 5209(Tested)
50.0%- 5080(Tested)
61.8%- 4950(Tested)
70.7%- 4852(Tested)
76.4%- 4790(Got support at 4788.95 on 18-05-2012)
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

76.4% Retracement completed on 18-05-2012 and after that sharp up move was also seen because Nifty got support also at Lower Falling Trend Line of  Falling Channel on 18-05-2012. Nifty got support between 4790-4907 in last 5 sessions therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade between this range in the beginning of next week and sustaining above this range(4907) is must for any decisive up move. As all the trends are down therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 200-Day SMA till then only Pull Back rally will be considered. Breaking down below 4790 will be confirmations of fast down moves to test following supports;-

1- 4635-4663
2- 4602-4624
3- 4560-4590 

As last 5 sessions support range(4790-4907) is most crucial for deciding next short term/Intermediate term trend therefore firstly watch its break out for above mentioned next moves confirmations.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(18-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
2- Long White candle formation.
3- Strong recovery from lower levels after after gap down opening.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.95
Nifty P/E Ratio(18-May-2012): 16.85

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1187
BSE Declines : 1536
NSE Advances :  603
NSE Declines :  819

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(May)- +253650(+37.79%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(May)- +614800(+9.60%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +229550(+9.00%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +503200(+7.79%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- -141500(-2.93%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- -125200(-2.15%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +190250(+3.37%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- +23400(0.65%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +515250(+7.94%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- +-135100(-4.70%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,891.45(+21.25 Points & +0.44%)
Sensex- closed at 16,152.75(+82.27 Points & +0.51% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,867.30(-19.25 Points & -0.28%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,255.42(-14.94 Points & -0.24%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 18-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 18-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 18-May-2012 1672.69 1921.62 -248.93

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 18-May-2012 1021.59 872.65 148.94

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5056
R2 4982
R1 4936
Avg 4862
S1 4816
S2 4742
S3 4696

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5013     Trgt 2
H5 4985     Trgt 1
H4 4957     Long breakout
H3 4924     Go Short
H2 4913
H1 4902
L1 4880
L2 4869
L3 4858     Long
L4 4825     Short Breakout
L5 4796     Trgt 1
L6 4768     Trgt 2