Mid-session Outlook(11-05-2012)

March IIP @ -3.5%

Sentiment was already weak and unexpected negative IIP numbers energised Bears to drag down Indian markets.Correction is continued to test following supports at lower levels.

1- 4810-4900
2- 4635-4663
3- 4602-4624
4- 4560-4590 

Firstly watch most crucial 61.8% retracement level(4950)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 11-05-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Almost first 4 hours trading between between 5019-5036 with intraday selling between 5025-5036.
2- Last more than one hour trading between 4951-4985 with mixed intraday patterns. 
3- Whole day trading between 4951-5039

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA is today at 5106 and today closing was third consecutive day closing below it. Correction is continued and intraday selling was seen again seen below 200-Day SMA today therefore almost confirmation of Long Term Trend turning down. 

61.8% retracement level is at 4950 and today lowest is at 4950.30 as well as last more than one hour trading between 4951-4985 with mixed intraday patterns therefore sustaining beyond 4950 will be firstly watched tomorrow for the confirmation of;-

1- Deeper correction below 4950 or
2- Long Term Trend survival last hopes above 4950.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 10-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 10-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 10-May-2012 1916.25 1598.83 317.42

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 10-May-2012 1046.05 1189.58 -143.53

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(10-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Flat closing after slipping from higher levels.
2- Black Candle.
3- Firstly strong trading but moving down after opening of European markets.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:1.10
Nifty P/E Ratio(10-May-2012):17.00

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1209
BSE Declines : 1592
NSE Advances :  595
NSE Declines :  836

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +27650(+4.21%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +333450(+6.26%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +183150(+15.63%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +659700(+10.11%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +681500(+17.72%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- +247050(+3.75%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +658800(+15.56%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -119350(-2.89%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,965.70(-9.10 Points & -0.18%)
Sensex- closed at 16,420.05(-59.53 Points & -0.36% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,063.30(+8.10 Points & +0.11%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,454.20(-15.76 Points & -0.24%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2012

Levels

R3 5108
R2 5073
R1 5019
Avg 4984
S1 4930
S2 4895
S3 4841

Trading Strategy

H6 5054     Trgt 2
H5 5034     Trgt 1
H4 5013     Long breakout
H3 4989     Go Short
H2 4981
H1 4973
L1 4956
L2 4948
L3 4940     Long
L4 4916     Short Breakout
L5 4895     Trgt 1
L6 4875     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5125
R2 5085
R1 5025
Avg 4985
S1 4925
S2 4885
S3 4825

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5066     Trgt 2
H5 5043     Trgt 1
H4 5021     Long breakout
H3 4993     Go Short
H2 4984
H1 4975
L1 4956
L2 4947
L3 4938     Long
L4 4911     Short Breakout
L5 4888     Trgt 1
L6 4865     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9729
R2 9636
R1 9495
Avg 9402
S1 9261
S2 9168
S3 9027

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9589     Trgt 2
H5 9535     Trgt 1
H4 9482     Long breakout
H3 9418     Go Short
H2 9396
H1 9375
L1 9332
L2 9311
L3 9289     Long
L4 9225     Short Breakout
L5 9172     Trgt 1
L6 9118     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(10-05-2012)

Indian markets outperformed Asian markets and traded strong almost first 4 hours but tumbled after higher levels selling. Dow's Futures was more than 30 points up and European markets also opened positive but not Dow's Futures is more than 40 points down and all the European markets are trading in Red.

Although good selling today but Nifty got support at 4957 yesterday and Nifty is hovering it around after slipping below it today. Mixed intraday patterns seen during last more than one hour trading between 5951-5985 today therefore firstly this range break out should be watched for next moves confirmations. 

Mid-session Outlook-3(10-05-2012)

As confirmations were required therefore we told following line in Mid-session Outlook(10-05-2012)

"Just watch sustaining above 5015 today because that will be 1st indication decisive up moves"

Nifty got support at 4957 yesterday and slipping below it also can not be ruled out after watching higher levels selling today.

Mid-session Outlook-2(10-05-2012)

Almost 4 hours trading between between 5119-5136 with intraday selling confirmations at higher levels between 5125-5136. Market slipped from higher levels. Correction continuation and more down moves will be seen. 

Mid-session Outlook(10-05-2012)

When Dow Jones was trading more than 80 points down then Pull Back Rally was projected at 01:08 AM today and following topic was posted:-

"Pull Back Rally expectations amid France & Greece Elections triggered Global Markets crash" 

Indian markets are 1% up while All the Asian markets are flat to weak and proved our projections 100% accurate.

Just watch sustaining above 5015 today because that will be 1st indication decisive up moves

Pull Back Rally expectations amid France & Greece Elections triggered Global Markets crash

Technical Analysis and Research For 10-05-2012

Nifty-EOD Chart (09-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 54 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation)
2- Testing of 200-Day SMA in Previous months.
3- Forcefully breaking down and last 2 sessions closing below 200-Day SMA.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Long term trend was up during 54 Sessions correction and Nifty could not slip below 200-Day SMA but France and Greece Elections results created that storm which shattered whole Global confidence and all the Global Stocks and Commodities markets crashed,resultant Indian markets also could not be spared and reacted in lines with Global markets and forcefully broken down 200-Day SMA.

Two day closing below 200-Day SMA and sustaining below it will be confirmation of Long term trend turning down.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5003-5015
2- Support between 4957-4982
3- Consolidation patterns formations in whole day intraday chart.
3- Whole day trading 4957-5015

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Sideways trading with lower levels supports and higher levels selling today and sustaining beyond today trading range should be  firstly watched tomorrow for next moves confirmation. As whole day intraday chart patterns are showing consolidation formations therefore breaking out possibilities above 5015 are high.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Correction continuation and most crucial 61.8% retracement(4950) has been almost completed after today lowest formation at 4956.45. Following 6 technocal points are showing correction completion indications and Pull Back Rally expectations:-

1- 61.8% retracement completion today.(most crucial retracemet level).
2- Short term oscillators are oversold now.
3- MACD:-  Distance in both lines therefore upmoves are required to converge both lines.
4- 54 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation).
5- Gravestone Doji Bullish Candle formation on 09-05-2012.
6- Consolidation patterns formations in whole day intraday chart on 09-05-2012.

Global markets nosedived after France and Greece election results and Dow Jones is trading more than 80 points down at this moment therefore cooling down and settling of depressed sentiment with global confidence building up is also required for any trend reversal and up moves.

France & Greece Elections triggered Global Markets crash but Indian markets are technically prepared for a Pull Back rally and it may be seen any day. As intraday Consolidation patterns formations seen between 4957-5015 on 09-05-2012 therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched in the coming sessions with Pull Back Rally expectations.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 01-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 01-May-2012 9999 8888 1111

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 01-May-2012 5555 3333 2222

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(09-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Gravestone Doji Bullish formation.
2- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
3- Sideways trading but volatile within intraday range.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.06
Nifty P/E Ratio(09-May-2012): 17.03

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :  933
BSE Declines : 1809
NSE Advances :  385
NSE Declines : 1046

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- -10200(-1.50%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +793700(+16.85%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +309850(+35.65%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +2131900(+46.19%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +803300(+25.72%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- -105000(-1.57%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +473200(+12.25%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -160750(-3.74%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(May)- +462150(+7.42%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(May)- -169050(-7.260%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,974.80(-25.15 Points & -0.50%)
Sensex- closed at 16,479.58(-66.60 Points & -0.40% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,055.20(-77.70 Points & -1.09%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,469.96(-80.86 Points & -1.23%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5068
R2 5042
R1 5008
Avg 4982
S1 4948
S2 4922
S3 4888

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5034     Trgt 2
H5 5020     Trgt 1
H4 5007     Long breakout
H3 4990     Go Short
H2 4985
H1 4979
L1 4968
L2 4963
L3 4957     Long
L4 4941     Short Breakout
L5 4927     Trgt 1
L6 4913     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5095
R2 5061
R1 5022
Avg 4988
S1 4949
S2 4915
S3 4876

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5056     Trgt 2
H5 5039     Trgt 1
H4 5023     Long breakout
H3 5003     Go Short
H2 4996
H1 4989
L1 4976
L2 4969
L3 4962     Long
L4 4942     Short Breakout
L5 4926     Trgt 1
L6 4909     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9771
R2 9665
R1 9522
Avg 9416
S1 9273
S2 9167
S3 9024

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9629     Trgt 2
H5 9572     Trgt 1
H4 9515     Long breakout
H3 9447     Go Short
H2 9424
H1 9401
L1 9356
L2 9333
L3 9310     Long
L4 9242    Short Breakout
L5 9185     Trgt 1
L6 9128     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(09-05-2012)

Most of the time intraday volatility(between 4970-5015) on the back of up/down moves in Dow's Futures and breaking down of intraday lows also after Dow's Futures turning down to -81.

New low formations after breaking down of 4970 but without force therefore sustaining below today lowest(4957) is must for next down moves confirmations.

Correction is on and slipping below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA also therefore complete consolidation is required for any decisive up move.

Sideways trading with lower levels supports and higher levels selling between 4957-5015 today and firstly sustaining it beyond should be  watched tomorrow for next moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-3(09-05-2012)

Again dancing on the tunes of Dow's Futures today which is now 55 points down and resustant Indian markets again sliiped from higher levels and trading little above today lower levels.

Global cues led high uncertainity therefore sustaining beyond mentioned range(4970-5015) should be firstly watched for next short term moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(09-05-2012)

Dancing on the music of US Futures today. Firstly slipping after down moves in Dow's Futures and now up after recovery in  Dow's Futures which is now only 19 points down.

Sustaining beyond mentioned range(4970-5015) should be firstly watched for next next short term moves confirmations.