Mid-session Outlook(17-04-2012)

Market shoot up after RBI announcement of 50 basis points Repo Rates cut but could not cross Selling range of 13-04-20129(Resistance between 5275-5305). Following lines were told yesterday in Market capped between 5175-5305:-

"multiple resistances at higher levels also therefore equally complete consolidation is required to sustaining above next Resistance(5275-5305) and until Nifty will not sustain above 5305 till then any decisive up move will not be considered"

Market is not prepared for any side  decisive moves therefore following topic was posted yesterdaY:-

Market capped between 5175-5305

Detailed analysis have already been updated in above topic yesterday therefore just click above topic link and go through.

Pre-open Outlook(17-04-2012)

Sentiment is depressed today morning because most Asian markets are trading in Red.

RBI Credit Policy at 11:00AM today and volatility immediately before and after its announcement may be seen. As RBI expressed worries on inflation in Micro Economic Review yesterday evening therefore cofusion on rates cut increased and SGX Nifty is more than 40 points today morning.

Market is capped between 5175-5305 today and follow up moves before and after Credit Policy will decide next market as well as break out of this range will be next moves confirmations.

Detailed analysis has already been updated yesterday in following topic:-

Market capped between 5175-5305

Market capped between 5175-5305

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 2 days Intra Day Chart

(Apr 13 & Apr 16,2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 13 & Apr 16,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 days intraday charts

1- Selling and Resistance between 5275-5305 on 13-04-2012
2- Mixed Patterns between 5200-5236 after Panic Bottom on 13-04-2012
3- Support and Consolidation between 5190-5205 on 16-04-2012
4- Mixed Patterns between 5217-5231 on 16-04-2012
5- Free Trading zone between 5231-5275

Conclusions from 2 days intra day chart analysis 

Strong old support range of 5175-5236 was told many times in last one week and Nifty traded whole day today between this range within 5183.50-5233.50 with lower levels supports and intraday consolidation patterns. Certainly mentioned old support range has strengthened today but strong multiple resistances at higher levels also therefore equally complete consolidation is required to sustaining above next Resistance(5275-5305) and until Nifty will not sustain above 5305 till then any decisive up move will not be considered. As strong supports are lying between 5175-5236 therefore more selling is also equally required to sustain below.

Free Trading zone between 5231-5275 and expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves within this range,break out of this range will be first indication and sustaining beyond 5175-5305 will be next decisive trend confirmation. If any big news will not be visible then expected that Nifty will trade next 2/3 sessions between 5175-5305 and prepare.

Detailed Technical analysis have been posted with EOD and Intraday charts in following topics in last 3 days. Just click Topic Link below and understand Indian markets:- 

1- Last corrective Wave before Strong Bullish Rally
2- Strong Rally Confirmations from Long Term Charts
3- Crucial Supports and Resistances of 36 sessions Correction
4- Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Formation In On Going Correction
5- Correction is on & Firstly Watch Next Supports
6- Next Monday Asian markets reaction on Western Markets Bloodshed
7- Panic bottom formation on 13-04-2012
8- Market capped between Supports and Resistances

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 16-Apr-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-Apr-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 16-Apr-2012 1341.24 1850.67 -509.43

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 16-Apr-2012 932.45 714.22 218.23

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(16-Apr-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
2- White Candle.
3- Closing near the higher levels of the day.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:0.92
Nifty P/E Ratio(16-Apr-2012):18.41

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1554
BSE Declines : 1258
NSE Advances :  811
NSE Declines :  620

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5100 CE(Apr)- -268550(-25.41%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Apr)- +81050(+1.35%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Apr)- +260100(+8.47%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Apr)- -97850(-1.52%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Apr)- +495700(+10.70%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Apr)- +110100(+3.35%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,226.20(+18.75 Points & +0.36%)
Sensex- closed at 17,150.95(+56.44 Points & +0.33% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,604.40(+24.80 Points & +0.33%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,837.26(+38.03 Points & +0.56%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-04-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5295
R2 5264
R1 5245
Avg 5214
S1 5195
S2 5164
S3 5145

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5276     Trgt 2
H5 5264     Trgt 1
H4 5253     Long breakout
H3 5239     Go Short
H2 5235
H1 5230
L1 5221
L2 5216
L3 5212     Long
L4 5198     Short Breakout
L5 5187     Trgt 1
L6 5175     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-04-2012

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 5351
R2 5304
R1 5276
Avg 5229
S1 5201
S2 5154
S3 5126

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5323     Trgt 2
H5 5306     Trgt 1
H4 5289     Long breakout
H3 5268     Go Short
H2 5261
H1 5254
L1 5241
L2 5234
L3 5227     Long
L4 5206     Short Breakout
L5 5189     Trgt 1
L6 5172     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-04-2012

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 10824
R2 10662
R1 10574
Avg 10412
S1 10324
S2 10162
S3 10074

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10742     Trgt 2
H5 10683     Trgt 1
H4 10624    Long breakout
H3 10555     Go Short
H2 10532
H1 10509
L1 10464
L2 10441
L3 10418     Long
L4 10349     Short Breakout
L5 10290     Trgt 1
L6 10231     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(16-04-2012)

Whole day trading today between crucial and strong support range(5175-5236) with lower levels supports and intraday consolidation patterns.

RBI Credit Policy led moves market will be seen tomorrow and sustaining beyond above mentioned range will be next decisive trend confirmation therefore should be firstly watched.

Mid-session Outlook(16-04-2012)

Following strong support range has been posted more than 5 times in last 7 sessions Outlooks;-

5175-5236 

Nifty is trading between this range since opening today and firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched.

Possibilities of next moves beyond this range has already been updated in 8 Outlooks which have been posted in last 3 days.

Now volatility within this range is suggesting to adopt Cautious approach.

Last corrective Wave before Strong Bullish Rally

Technical Dissection,Next Direction & Crucial Supports of On Going Correction 

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bullish Flag Pattern(Falling Channel) in on going Correction
2- C.W.-1(5171.45 on 07-03-2012)
3- C.W.-2(5499.40 on 14-03-2012)
4- C.W.-3(5135.95 on 29-03-2012)
5- C.W.-4(5378.75 on 03-04-2012)
6- C.W.-5 is on
(C.W.:Corrective Waves)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Two times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA is today at 5145.

Conclusions from EOD chartS analysis 

Downward Corrective Wave-5 continuation in on going correction and next supports at lower levels are as follows:-

1- 5175-5236 
2- 5136-5167
3- Two times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA is today at 5145.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels(5629-4532) of on going correction are as follows-

13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Nifty traded more than one hour on 13-04-2012 between 5200-5236 and within above mentioned 1st Support range which is strong support also. Next support range(5136-5167) below 5175 is most crucial because Nifty got 2 times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA(today at 5145) is lying within this range therefore support getting possibility at or near about Long Term Trend deciding 200-Day SMA can not be ruled out. Firstly above mentioned supports should be watched in the beginning of next week but C.W.-5 is on and bottom B3 formations below 5135.95 can not be ruled out.

Just click following topic Link to understand on going correction nature:-

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Formation In On Going Correction

Multiple resistances at higher levels and complete consolidations and base formation will not be seen till then Impulsive Sub Wave-3 after correction completion can not be considered. Although least possibility of sustaining below 200-Day SMA but correction is on and following 3 Crucial Fibonacci Retracement Levels should also be kept in mind.

Crucial 3 Fibonacci Retracement Levels(5629-4532)

1- 38.2%- 5209(Aleady broken down)
2- 50.0%- 5080(Testing possibility can not be ruled out in any correction)
3- 61.8%- 4950(Testing possibility can not be ruled out in any correction)

As Bullish Flag Pattern(Falling Channel) formations in on going Correction therefore finally Indian markets will get supports at any of above levels. Firstly correction completion and and after that Strong rally in the form of  Sub Wave-3 will generate to form new highs above 6000(Nifty). As soon as Indian markets will start consolidation and base formation then will be updated according to our last 5 years record.

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Formation In On Going Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Formation

T1(5629.95)
T2(5499.40)
T3(5378.75)
B1(5171.45)
B2(5135.95)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction is on and its completion is required yet. As lower tops and lower bottoms formations in on going correction therefore new bottom B3 formations possibility below 5135.95 can not be ruled out in the coming week/weeks.

Strong Rally Confirmations from Long Term Charts

Nifty-EOD Chart(13-Apr-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 1st impulsive wave begun on 27-10-2008 from 2252.
2- 2nd corrective wave begun on 12-06-2009 from 4693.
3- 3rd impulsive wave begun on 13-07-2009 from 3919.
4- Corrective 4th beginning in Falling Channel(14 Months long) on 05-11-2010 from 6338. 
5- 5th impulsive wave begun on 20-12-2011 from 4532(Bottom in 13th month).
6- 14 Months Falling Channel final break out on 31-01-2012.
7- 5th wave gained 1098.80 Nifty Points in 45 sessions upto 22-02-2012
8- Corrective Sub Wave-1 beginning in Falling Channel from 22-02-2012.
9- Correction recent bottom at 5136 on 29-03-2012.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

5th impulsive wave is on from 4532 after forming bottom in corrective 13th month on 20-12-2011 and its confirmation through break out of 14 months falling channel(Bullish Flag Pattern) on 31-01-2012. 5th wave gained 1098.80 Nifty Points in 45 sessions and after that corrective Sub Wave-1 beginning in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Pattern) from 22-02-2012. Correction is on after formation of its recent bottom at 5136 on 29-03-2012 but no confirmation of its completion yet.

As on going correction is continued in falling channel(Bullish Flag Pattern) therefore technically strong indications of Bullish rally after completion of correction. Expected that finally Bullish Flag Pattern will result in the same manner as has been seen after correction completion on 20-12-2011 at 4532 and Nifty gained 1098.80 Points in 45 sessions.

Correction is on and possible lower levels will be updated within 24 hours. Just wait for on going correction completion confirmations and then expect blasting Bullish moves. 

Correction is on & Firstly Watch Next Supports

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

 (Apr 16 to Apr 20,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart(13-Apr-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally bottom)
2- Wave-1 top at 5629.95 on 22-02-2012
3- Corrective Wave-2 bottom at 5135.95 on 29-03-2012(Correction bottom got support just below 200 Day SMA)
4- Two times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction.
5- Wave-3 beginning from 30-03-2012 but its confirmation is required
6- Bullish 'Flag Pattern' Pattern Formation(Falling Channel) in on going post 22-02-2012 correction.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Long term trend is up,Short term trend turned turned down after Sharp fall on 13-04-2012 and Intermediate term trend is sideways in on going correction. Firstly weekly top formation and after that weekly bottom formation seen on 13-04-2012 after higher levels good selling.

36 sessions correction. Resistances and Supports within this correction are as follows:-

Resistances:

5- 5588-5625
4- 5418-5487
3- 5357-5377
2- 5318-5337
1- 5275-5305

Supports:

1- 5175-5236 
2- 5136-5167
3- Two times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA is today at 5145.

Correction is very much on after higher levels intraday selling and sharp fall on 13-04-2012. As above mentioned first support has been tested and no support getting confirmations yet therefore firstly above mentioned supports should be watched and any decisive up move will be considered after complete support formation confirmations.

Bullish 'Flag Pattern' Pattern Formation(Falling Channel) in on going post 22-02-2012 correction therefore expected that finally rally above 5629.95(Wave-1 top) will be seen after completion of correction. As strong and multiple resistances at higher levels therefore complete consolidations and base formation is required for a decisive rally.

Next week first trading range will be 5136-5275. Sustaining below 5136 will be deeper correction confirmation and sustaining above 5305 be first indication of correction completion. 

Next Monday Asian markets reaction on Western Markets Bloodshed

Global markets down moves started after opening of European markets but sharp fall seen after negative news flow from Europe. Global sentiment turned so highly depressed that all the US and American markets closed more than 1% down.

European,US and American Stock Markets closing on 13-04-2012 are as follows:-

European Stock Markets

DAX-      159.34 Points and 2.36% down.
CAC 40-   80.70 Points and 2.47% down.
FTSE 100- 58.67 Points and 1.03% down.
Italy 40- 510.41 Points and 3.43% down..
AEX 25-   4.76 Points and 1.53% down.
EU Stoxx 50- 60.73 Points and 2.58% down.

US Stock Markets

Dow Jones-136.99 Points and 1.05% down.
NASDAQ-  44.22 Points and 1.45% down.
S&P 500-  17.31 Points and 1.25% down.

Ameracan Stock Markets

MerVal-  60.60 Points and 2.36% down.
Bovespa- 952.40 Points and 1.51% down.
S&P TSX- 174.26 Points and 1.43% down.
IPC- 913.80 Points and 2.32% down.
500 Index-17.31 Points and 1.25% down.

Expected Asian markets reaction on 16-04-2012

Gap down opening in most of Asian markets will be seen on 16-04-2012 but Indian markets will not react so deeply because Indian markets have already reacted on 13-04-2012. Indian markets will firstly try to protect next Supports of on going correction. Just click following topic link for all the crucial supports and resistances of on going correction:-

Crucial Supports and Resistances of 36 sessions Correction

Crucial Supports and Resistances of 36 sessions Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart(13-Apr-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

36 sessions correction. Resistances and Supports within this correction are as follows:-

Resistances:

5- 5588-5625
4- 5418-5487
3- 5357-5377
2- 5318-5337
1- 5275-5305

Supports:

1- 5175-5236 
2- 5136-5167
3- Two times support at 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA is today at 5145.

Crucial 3 Fibonacci Retracement Levels(5629-4532)

1- 38.2%- 5209(Aleady broken down)
2- 50.0%- 5080(Testing possibility can not be ruled out in any correction)
3- 61.8%- 4950(Testing possibility can not be ruled out in any correction)

Market capped between Supports and Resistances

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Apr 16 to Apr 20,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 5 sessions intraday charts

1- Support between 5192-5225 on 10-04-2012 and 11-04-2012
2- Selling between 5275-5305 on 13-04-2012 
3- Sharp fall after negative news from Europe on 13-04-2012.
4- Panic bottom formation after sharp fall on 13-04-2012.
5- Mixed Patterns between 5200-5236 on 13-04-2012.
6- Weekly highest and lowest formation on 13-04-2012

Conclusions from 5 days intra day chart analysis 

Good consolidation in the middle of week and new weetly top formation even after poor performance by INFY on 13-04-2012. Firstly intraday selling developed between 5275-5305 and after down moves started after weak opening in European markets. As soon as negative news started to come from Europe then simultaneous sharp fall seen in Indian and European markets.

As last more than 1 hour trading with mixed patterns between 5200-5236 after panic bottom formation in sharp fall on 13-04-2012 therefore firstly sustaining beyond mixed Patterns range(5200-5236) will be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

Strong resistances avove 5375 and next supports are between 5192-5225 and finally down moves first indication will be after sustaining below 5192 and confirmation will be after sustaining below 5136.

Market is capped between supports and resistances therefore firstly sideways moves are expected in the beginning of next week.

Panic bottom formation on 13-04-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(13-Apr-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5275-5305
2- Sharp fall after negative news from Europe.
3- Panic bottom formation after sharp fall.
4- Mixed Patterns between 5200-5236
5- Whole day trading between 5185.40-5306.75 with weekly highest and lowest formation.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly intraday selling developed between 5275-5305 after poor performance and below expectations guidance by INFY and after that sharp fall seen in which Nifty lost more than 70 points within 7 minutes.

Sharp fall resultant Panic bottom formation and after that more than 1 hour trading with mixed patterns between 5200-5236. As intraday support after panic bottom can not be ruled out therefore firstly sustaining beyond mixed Patterns range(5200-5236) will be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 13-Apr-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 13-Apr-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 13-Apr-2012 2634.23 2496.98 137.25

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 13-Apr-2012 1329.61 1809.29 -479.68