NIFTY-Mar F&O-1st Buying of 26-03-2012-Trade

NIFTY(Mar Fut-Buy-Positional)SL-5174-TGT-5254-CMP-5186

NIFTY(Mar Call Option-Buy-Positional)SL-5174-TGT-5254-S.P.FOR Call-5200(Mar Fut-Rates are for all Options covering)-CMP-5186

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-03-2012)

After today trading sustaining beyond following 3 ranges should be kept in mind for the confirmation of Long term trend survival:-

1- 5190-5223
2- 5172-5223
3- 5156-5223

As today intraday charts are showing consolidation indications therefore expected that market will finally get support between or near about above mentioned levels and rally will continue after correction completion despite almost whole day today more than 1.25% down trading. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(26-03-2012)

Importance,strength and testing possibility of crucial support range(5172-5200) was updated several times in previous week Outlooks,Nifty is trading within and little above this range since opening today.

Nifty is trading between 5190-5223 with lower levels supports and consolidations indications also therefore firstly sustaining beyond mentioned today trading range should be watched for next moves consirmations. As correction is still continued therefore following most crucial levels should also be kept in mind:-

1- 5172(Lowest of previous support)
2- 5156(200-Day SMA on 23-03-2012)

Mid-session Outlook(26-03-2012)

More than 1.5% down today after last Friday higher levels selling. Intraday charts of today are showing again selling today also therefore Nifty is trading within strong and crucial support range(5172-5200),firstly sustaining it beyong should be watched today. 

Finally impulsive wave-3 Rally in Coming Weeks

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 26 to Mar 30,2012)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD charts,Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 3 Charts therefore not being repeated. Just click following topic links and go through detailed analysis for trading in next week:-

1-Finally impulsive wave-3 Rally after Correction Completion
2-Long Term Trend Decider 200-Day EMA & 200-Day SMA 
3-Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(23-Mar-2012)

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Long term trend is up,Intermediate term and Short term trends are down in Intermediate term correction. 1098.80 Nifty Points rally in 45 sessions and its correction is on from 22-02-2012 but without any reversal pattern and Continuation pattern 'Symmetrical triangle' formation is visible in 23 sessions correction EOD Chart therefore expected that rally begun from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011 will continue after on going correction completion.

Correction is on after good selling at higher levels. Although good support seen above 5200 in previous week but correction is on and in this precess testing possibility of Long term trend decider 200-Day SMA(5156) can not be ruled out and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then Uptrend will remain intact.

Expected that Nifty will trade between 5156-5380 in the coming week and will prepare for fresh rally as well as Nifty will not sustain below 200-Day SMA and finally impulsive wave-3 rally will be seen after completion of corrective Wave-2.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(23-Mar-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(23-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view 

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5260-5275
2- Support between 5233-5248
3- Break out after more than 4 hours trading between 5233-5278
4- Bearish Rising Wedge pattern formations at the top.
3- Whole day trading between 5222-5312

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly more than 4 hours trading between 5233-5278 with mixed intraday patterns and then break out after European markets positive opening but failed to sustain at higher levels after Bearish Rising Wedge pattern formations and slipped.

Higher levels selling,lower levels support and next trend confirmations will be sustaining beyond today trading range(5222-5312) therefore it should be firstly watched in next week.

Finally impulsive wave-3 Rally after Correction Completion

Nifty-EOD Chart(23-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view 

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom of 13 months correction at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
2- Wave-1 completion at 5629.95 on 22-02-2012
3- Corrective Wave-2 bottom at 5171.45 on 07-03-2012
4- Continuation pattern Symmetrical triangle Formation

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction is on but no reversal pattern visible. As Continuation pattern Symmetrical triangle formation seen therefore expected that finally impulsive wave-3 rally will be seen after completion of corrective Wave-2.

Long Term Trend Decider 200-Day EMA & 200-Day SMA

Nifty-EOD Chart(23-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view 

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Resistances at 200-Day SMA
2- Support at 200-Day SMA on 07-03-2012 at 5171.45
3- Support at 200-Day EMA on 22-03-2012 at 5206
4- 200-Day EMA is at 5204 on 23-03-2012
5- 200-Day SMA is at 5156 on 23-03-2012

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Corrective Wave-2 is on and Intermediate and Short Term Trends are down. As Nifty is sustaining above 200-Day EMA & SMA therefore Long term trend is up,until Nifty is above till then Bullish markets survival hopes are alive.

It is clear from above EOD Chart that when Indian market was in Bear phase then each time Nifty faced resistances and retraced from 200-Day EMA & SMA. Nifty traded whole previous week above 200-Day EMA as well as tested it also but got support and sustained above. 

Correction is on and its completion confirmation is required yet. Although Petroleum Price hike news is possible any day but sustaining below 5157 should be firstly watched tomorrow for Long Term Trend survival confirmations and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then Uptrend will remain intact.

Expected that finally Nifty will not sustain below 200-Day SMA and impulsive Wave-3 will continue after on going Wave-2 correction completion.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 23-Mar-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 23-Mar-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 23-Mar-2012 2310.91 2301.45 9.46

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 23-Mar-2012 689.22 502.41 186.81

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(23-Mar-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green except Metals.
2- White Candle.
3- Whole day positive market.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.25
Nifty P/E Ratio(23-Mar-2012): 18.65

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1430
BSE Declines : 1484
NSE Advances :  764
NSE Declines :  666

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5100 CE(Mar)- -59850(-4.83%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Mar)- +1555950(+26.81%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Mar)- +265950(+7.01%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Mar)- +1897250(+27.92%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Mar)- +488200(+11.00%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Mar)- +224350(+4.48%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Mar)- -334350(-5.01%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Mar)- +24450(+0.69%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,278.20(+49.75 Points & +0.95%)
Sensex- closed at 17,361.74(+165.27 Points & +0.96%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,671.40(+60.50 Points & +0.79%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,626.35(+26.66 Points & +0.40%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-03-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5412
R2 5362
R1 5320
Avg 5270
S1 5228
S2 5178
S3 5136

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5371     Trgt 2
H5 5349     Trgt 1
H4 5328     Long breakout
H3 5303     Go Short
H2 5294
H1 5286
L1 5269
L2 5261
L3 5252     Long
L4 5227     Short Breakout
L5 5206     Trgt 1
L6 5184     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-03-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5428
R2 5378
R1 5331
Avg 5281
S1 5234
S2 5184
S3 5137

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5383     Trgt 2
H5 5360     Trgt 1
H4 5338     Long breakout
H3 5311     Go Short
H2 5302
H1 5293
L1 5276
L2 5267
L3 5258     Long
L4 5231     Short Breakout
L5 5209     Trgt 1
L6 5187     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-03-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 10751
R2 10595
R1 10453
Avg 10297
S1 10155
S2 9999
S3 9857

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10614     Trgt 2
H5 10544     Trgt 1
H4 10474     Long breakout
H3 10392     Go Short
H2 10365
H1 10338
L1 10283
L2 10256
L3 10229     Long
L4 10147     Short Breakout
L5 10077     Trgt 1
L6 10008     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Mar 26 to Mar 30,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5554
R2 5470
R1 5374
Avg 5290
S1 5194
S2 5110
S3 5014

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5460     Trgt 2
H5 5418     Trgt 1
H4 5377     Long breakout
H3 5327     Go Short
H2 5311
H1 5294
L1 5261
L2 5245
L3 5228    Long
L4 5179     Short Breakout
L5 5137     Trgt 1
L6 5095     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Mar 26 to Mar 30,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 11002
R2 10793
R1 10544
Avg 10335
S1 10086
S2 9877
S3 9628

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10760     Trgt 2
H5 10653     Trgt 1
H4 10546     Long breakout
H3 10420     Go Short
H2 10378
H1 10336
L1 10253
L2 10211
L3 10169     Long
L4 10043     Short Breakout
L5  9936    Trgt 1
L6  9829    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(23-03-2012)

More than 4 hours trading between 5233-5278 and after that break out after European markets positive opening but failed to sustain at higher levels and slipped into mentioned range after Bearish Rising Wedge pattern formations.

Although positive closing expected after almost whole day Green trading higher levels selling patterns also therefore until Nifty will not sustain above todays highs(5312) till then any sustained up move will not be considered.

Higher levels selling,lower levels support today and next trend confirmations will be sustaining beyond today trading range therefore will be firstly watched in next week.

Mid-session Outlook(23-03-2012)

Nifty traded most time between 5233-5278 with higher levels selling between 5258-5278. Although higher levels intraday selling patterns but lower levels supports also therefore sustaining beyond mentioned today trading range should be firstly watched for next decisive moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(23-03-2012)

Sharp down yesterday after higher levels good selling yesterday but positive market since opening today. Nifty recovered immediately after opening but failed to cross resistance at 5295 and slipped after intraday selling patterns between 5258-5278.

Nifty got support 2 times earlier near 5200 and again trading above 5200 today after forming low at 5205.6 and sustaining beyond 5210 should be firstly watched for nexts decisive moves cinfirmations.

Long Term Trend Again at Stake

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(22-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view 

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5333-5383
2- Sharp Fall after good selling.
3- Whole day trading between 5206-5385

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As soon as selling formation got confirmation then it was updated in Mid-session Outlook and only selling was repeated in all the intraday Outlooks as well as next targets were projected which achieved also.

Intermediate and Short Term Trends are down.Long Term trend is up but certainly at stake after good selling at higher levels and sustaining below following 2 levels will be confirmation Long Term Trend torning down:-

1- 200-Day EMA- 5203
2- 200-Day SMA- 5157

Sustaining below 5157 should be firstly watched tomorrow for Long Term Trend survival confirmations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 22-Mar-2012