Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Mar 19 to Mar 23,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5637
R2 5568
R1 5443
Avg 5374
S1 5249
S2 5180
S3 5055

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5512     Trgt 2
H5 5468     Trgt 1
H4 5424     Long breakout
H3 5371     Go Short
H2 5353
H1 5335
L1 5300
L2 5282
L3 5264     Long
L4 5211     Short Breakout
L5 5167     Trgt 1
L6 5123     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Mar 19 to Mar 23,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 11316
R2 11114
R1 10752
Avg 10550
S1 10188
S2 9986
S3 9624

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10957     Trgt 2
H5 10829     Trgt 1
H4 10701     Long breakout
H3 10546     Go Short
H2 10494
H1 10442
L1 10339
L2 10287
L3 10235    Long
L4 10080     Short Breakout
L5  9952    Trgt 1
L6  9824    Trgt 2

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Non-Event Budget triggered Sharp Correction

We were expecting that market will move up after Budget and Nifty moved up also 40 points after the beginning Budget speech but Budget completely failed to show induatrial growth road map and Reform Agenda thrown into cold storage and therefore selling developed during Budget hours. As soon selling developed then We immediately updated about selling and cautioned at 12:29 PM in Mid-session Outlook when Budget Speech was going on and Nifty was trading at 5400.45:-

As selling seen today therefore view turned cautious despite whole day positive market today and equally fresh consolidation is firstly required within yesterday range for moves above 5444. 

Nifty Intraday Chart from "nseindia.com"(at 12:29PM on 16-Mar-2012):-

It is clear from the above chart that when Nifty was trading at 5400.45 then we clearly told for selling and cautioned also at 12:29PM on 16-Mar-2012



Nifty-Intra Day Chart(16-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view 

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5395-5444
2- Selling between 5405-5430
3- Sharp fall after selling.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Highly volatile market on news flooding Budget day and technical positions reverses also in such markets but intraday charts showed clear selling formations therefore we told for selling in all the 3 Outlooks.

Nifty slipped and closed below Intermediate term trend decider 5340 and sustaining below it will Intermediate term trend turning down as well as more down moves. As higher levels good selling therefore more down moves are possible and finally sustaining below 5340 will mean testing possibility of next support range(5172-5200) 

Intraday selling updated in all Outlooks Today

Rally was expected after Budget today but as soon as selling developed then it was updated in all the 3 Mid-Sessions Outlook. We cautioned at 12:29 PM when Nifty was above 5400 in our first Outlook of today  and told following lines:-

As selling seen today therefore view turned cautious despite whole day positive market today and equally fresh consolidation is firstly required within yesterday range for moves above 5444.

Nifty Intraday Chart from "nseindia.com"(at 12:29PM on 16-Mar-2012):-

It is clear from the above chart that when Nifty was trading at 5400.45 then we clearly told for selling and cautioned also at 12:29PM on 16-Mar-2012

Pre-Closing Outlook(16-03-2012)

Firstly selling seen between 5426-5444 today and after that Nifty traded almost 1 hour just below it between 5402-5413 as well as slipped below 5402 also therefore it is weakness indication.

As news based volatile market therefore confirmation is required through sustaining beyond yesterday range(5362-5447)

Mid-session Outlook-2 (16-03-2012)

Technically Indian markets are well prepared for a rally and it is expected also but selling seen between 5426-5444 today therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched today. Highly volatile markets and technical positions reverses in such markets therefore sustaining beyond yesterday range(5362-5447) will be next decisive move confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(16-03-2012)

As selling seen between 5426-5444 today therefore sustaining beyond this range will be firstly watched today amid highly volatile market. Sustaining beyond yesterday range(5362-5447) will be market reaction on Budget.

As selling seen today therefore view turned cautious despite whole day positive market today and equally fresh consolidation is firstly required within yesterday range for moves above 5444.

Trade Carefully otherwise such volatile markets are good for stop loss triggering.

Continuation of Rally after Union Budget-2012

Technical Analysis and Research For 16-03-2012

Nifty-EOD Chart(15-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view 

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 from 4531.15 to 5629.95.
2- Corrective Wave-2 from 5629.95 to 5171.45 and 38.2% retracement completion at 5209.
3- 4 Days Impulsive Wave-3 from 5171.45 to 5499.40.
4- Minnor correction of 4 Days Impulsive Wave-3 from 5499.40 to 5362.30 and 38.2% retracement completion at 5373 on 15-03-2012.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Very short term indicators turned overbought after 4 days rally and resultant 38.2% correction today on the back on adverse news flow. Expected that ongoing impulsive Wave-3 will remain continued in the coming sessions after today correction completion.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(15-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view 

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5430-5447
2- More than 3 hours Consolidation Patterns between- 5362-5396
3- Whole day trading between 5362-5447

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As more than 3 hours intraday consolidation pattern therefore indication of on going rally continuation after correction completion today at 38.2% retracement level.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

All trends are up and intraday support seen at lower levels today therefore strong indication of correction completion today and expected that on going rally will remain continued in the coming sessions.

Nifty will firstly trade between today trading range(5362-5447) tomorrow. Indian markets are technically mature for rally in the coming sessions and its continuation will be seen tomorrow  despite whatsoever Union Budget-2012.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 15-Mar-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 15-Mar-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 15-Mar-2012 2375.95 2219.93 156.02

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 15-Mar-2012 809.83 1199 -389.17

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(15-Mar-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing.
2- Black Candle.
3- All the Indices closed in Red.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:0.93
Nifty P/E Ratio(15-Mar-2012):19.01

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 965
BSE Declines  1903
NSE Advances : 379
NSE Declines :1073

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Mar)- -5400(-0.22%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Mar)- +73800(+0.82%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Mar)- -226300(-7.83%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Mar)- -90700(-1.40%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Mar)- +621000(+17.850%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Mar)- +395700(+8.60%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Mar)- +1569050(+31.49%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Mar)- -402950(-11.26%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Mar)- +1454350(+25.97%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Mar)- -35900(-2.41%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Mar)- +1156600(+23.53%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Mar)- -21300(-3.97%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,380.50(-83.40 Points & -1.53%%)
Sensex- closed at 17,675.85(-243.45 Points & -1.36%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,727.35(-159.00 Points & -2.02%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,780.45(-66.19 Points & -0.97%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-03-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5540
R2 5501
R1 5440
Avg 5401
S1 5340
S2 5301
S3 5240

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5480     Trgt 2
H5 5457     Trgt 1
H4 5435     Long breakout
H3 5407     Go Short
H2 5398
H1 5389
L1 5370
L2 5361
L3 5352     Long
L4 5325     Short Breakout
L5 5302     Trgt 1
L6 5279     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-03-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5596
R2 5552
R1 5485
Avg 5441
S1 5374
S2 5330
S3 5263

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5530     Trgt 2
H5 5505    Trgt 1
H4 5480     Long breakout
H3 5449     Go Short
H2 5439
H1 5429
L1 5408
L2 5398
L3 5388     Long
L4 5357     Short Breakout
L5 5332     Trgt 1
L6 5307     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-03-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11288
R2 11143
R1 10898
Avg 10753
S1 10508
S2 10363
S3 10118

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11045     Trgt 2
H5 10957     Trgt 1
H4 10868     Long breakout
H3 10761     Go Short
H2 10725
H1 10689
L1 10618
L2 10582
L3 10546     Long
L4 10439     Short Breakout
L5 10350     Trgt 1
L6 10262     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(15-03-2012)

Higher levels selling and lower levels buying.Nifty will trade within today range tomorrow.

Mid-session Outlook(15-03-2012)

Day of negative news led sharp fall today today and correction of last 4 sessions surge just before Budget-2012. Although selling at higher levels today but next support is within 5334-5350 and will be first watched today and tomorrow for getting confirmation of rally continuation.

Status Quo in RBI Credit Policy

Market was expecting rates cut but no change in all the rates therefore sharp fall after Credit Policy announcement and Nifty slipped below 5417. Sustaining beyond 5417 will be firstly watched for the next decisive moves confirmations. 

Post-open Outlook(15-03-2012)

Sentiment dampened due to Railway Minister resignation issue and weakness in all the Asian markets(except Nikkei) therefore negative zone trading after weak opening. Railway Minister resignation issue will be resolved and today down moves are only sentimental impact.

Expected that Indian markets will get support and Nifty will not sustain below 5438 and finally on going rally will remain continued.

Next decisive moves confirmation range before and after Budget is sustaining beyond 5417-5463,precautionally should be kept in mind because market may be highly volatile also.

Rally despite whatsoever Union Budget-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(14-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view 

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5438-5463
2- Whole day trading between 5438-5485

Conclusions 

As intraday selling therefore following guidance was given yesterday in Cautious view after intraday selling patterns today

sustaining beyond 5417-5438 will be firstly watched tomorrow for next moves confirmations.

Nifty got support exactly at 5437.80 after slipping from higher levels and whole day sustained above 5438. More than 3 hours good selling was seen between 5422-5458 on 29-02-2012 and Nifty consilidated within this range today between 5438-5463 therefore almost confirmation of this resistance range clearing.

Long and Short term trends were already up and Intermediate term trend(5340) turning up confirmation  today therefore rally will remain continued after all trends turning up and high testing possibility of following 2 resistance ranges of Dec 2011 started rally:-

1- 5485-5533
2- 5590-5627

Big events(RBI Credit Policy and Union Budget-2012) in the next 2 sessions therefore high volatility can not be ruled out but until Nifty will not sustain below today lowest(5438) till then any down move will not be considered because good consolidation above it today. Rally is on after completion of correction and crossing resistances therefore complete selling patterns are must minimum on intraday and daily charts for rally termination. As no such signal today therefore:-

 only rally continuation conclusion despite whatsoever RBI Credit Policy and Union Budget-2012.