Nifty-EOD Chart(27-Feb-2012):-
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Nifty-Intra Day Chart(27-Feb-2012):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD and today intraday charts
1- 1098 Points rally in 45 sessions.
2- Rising Trend line broken down.
3- Strong support(5340-5415) broken down today.
4- Whole day down move in Falling Channel.
5- Long Marubozu Candle today.
6- Whole day trading between 5269-5449 today.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
1098 Points strong rally but could not cross 5600-5700 resistance and retraced after 3 sessions good selling between 5588-5625. As such strong rallies completes correction between sideways market therefore correction completion possibility near the lowest of strong support range(5340) was considered but following most negative factors triggered sharp declines in Indian markets:-
1- All the Asian markets Red closing except SSEC.
2- All the European markets big gap down opening.
3- Dow's Futures traded more than 50 points down.
4- Sharp surge in crude rates and possibility of Petroleum rates hike by Indian Oil Companies.
5- As inflation will increase due to Petroleum rates hike therefore interest rates decreasing possibility turning lower in RBI Credit Policy.
Strong support of 5340 has been broken down today therefore Indian markets will retrace 20-Dec-2011 begun rally according to following
Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4531-5629):-
13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656
As correction is on therefore
All 7 following supports of 2012 Rally were updated on 25-02-2012:-
1- Strong support and base formation between 4532-4670
2- Minor support between 4590-4640
3- Strong support between 4680-4760
4- Support between 4810-4900
5- Minor support between 4992-5068
6- Support between 5120-5190
7- Strong support between 5340-5415
5340 broken down forcefully today and given strong indication of
intermediate term trend turning down and its confirmation will mean:-
1- As Intermediate term trend confirmation means a trend from 3 weeks to 3 months therefore more down moves upto this period.
2- Testing possibility of above Supports and Retracement Levels.
Correction is on and no indication of its completion yet as well as today lowest(5268.15) is not much above next support range(5120-5190) therefore its testing possibility can not be ruled out. As following most crucial levels are placed between/little above this range therefore this range will decide the fate of Long term trend:-
1- 38.2% Retracement Level- 5209
2- 55-Day DMA - 5160
3- 200-Day DMA- 5177
4- 200-Day SMA- 5172
Testing of 5120-5190 will mean Intermediate term downward confirmation and Long term trend will be at stake therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.
