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Firstly Watch Correction fate decider 5346-5390
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(28-Feb-2012):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Most of the time trading above 5340(Intermediate term trend decider)
2- More than 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns between 5346-5390
3- Whole day trading between 5308-5390
It was expected that Nifty will not slip below 5340 and complete correction within strong support range 5340-5415 and side ways market will be seen but range shifted to 5268-5410 after negative flow on 29-02-2012. As yesterday down down move was due to negative news therefore equally sharp recovery seen today after positive news.
Correction is on and undecided Nifty is hovering around Intermediate term trend decider 5340,sustaining it beyond will give confirmation to correction continuation/completion. Nifty traded almost whole day above 5340 with intraday mixed patterns between 5346-5390.
Adverse news led 2 volatile sessions with more than 5 hours mixed intraday patterns are suggesting that Indian markets are not prepare for any side decisive moves and will trade more time between or near about 5346-5390 for catching next direction.
As good consolidation patterns at lower levels today therefore expected that follow up consolidation will be seen in the coming sessions and Nifty will finally sustain above 5340 after correction completion confirmation.
Sustaining beyond 5346-5390 will firstly decide the fate of on going correction therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for next moves confirmations.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Most of the time trading above 5340(Intermediate term trend decider)
2- More than 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns between 5346-5390
3- Whole day trading between 5308-5390
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
It was expected that Nifty will not slip below 5340 and complete correction within strong support range 5340-5415 and side ways market will be seen but range shifted to 5268-5410 after negative flow on 29-02-2012. As yesterday down down move was due to negative news therefore equally sharp recovery seen today after positive news.
Correction is on and undecided Nifty is hovering around Intermediate term trend decider 5340,sustaining it beyond will give confirmation to correction continuation/completion. Nifty traded almost whole day above 5340 with intraday mixed patterns between 5346-5390.
Adverse news led 2 volatile sessions with more than 5 hours mixed intraday patterns are suggesting that Indian markets are not prepare for any side decisive moves and will trade more time between or near about 5346-5390 for catching next direction.
As good consolidation patterns at lower levels today therefore expected that follow up consolidation will be seen in the coming sessions and Nifty will finally sustain above 5340 after correction completion confirmation.
Sustaining beyond 5346-5390 will firstly decide the fate of on going correction therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for next moves confirmations.
Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(28-Feb-2012)
Main features of today trading are as follows
1- All the Indices closed in Green except IT and FMCG.
2- Whole day upmoves after positive news led strong opening.
3- Long White Candle.
Ratios
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.08
Nifty P/E Ratio(28-Feb-2012): 19.05
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 2170
BSE Declines : 748
NSE Advances : 1238
NSE Declines : 234
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5300 CE(Feb)- +84300(+5.31%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Feb)- -551900(-8.64%)
Nifty- 5400 CE(Feb)- +36100(+1.60%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Feb)- +448700(+12.99%)
Nifty- 5500 CE(Feb)- +149800(+4.03%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Feb)- +164150(+5.76%)
Closing
Nifty- closed at 5,375.50(+94.30 Points & +1.79%)
Sensex- closed at 17,731.12(+285.37Points & +1.64% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,611.30(+259.50 Points & +3.53%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,317.42(+207.90 Points & +3.40%)
1- All the Indices closed in Green except IT and FMCG.
2- Whole day upmoves after positive news led strong opening.
3- Long White Candle.
Ratios
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.08
Nifty P/E Ratio(28-Feb-2012): 19.05
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 2170
BSE Declines : 748
NSE Advances : 1238
NSE Declines : 234
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5300 CE(Feb)- +84300(+5.31%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Feb)- -551900(-8.64%)
Nifty- 5400 CE(Feb)- +36100(+1.60%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Feb)- +448700(+12.99%)
Nifty- 5500 CE(Feb)- +149800(+4.03%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Feb)- +164150(+5.76%)
Closing
Nifty- closed at 5,375.50(+94.30 Points & +1.79%)
Sensex- closed at 17,731.12(+285.37Points & +1.64% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,611.30(+259.50 Points & +3.53%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,317.42(+207.90 Points & +3.40%)
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 28-Feb-2012
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Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-02-2012
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 5493
R2 5442
R1 5408
Avg 5357
S1 5323
S2 5272
S3 5238
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5461 Trgt 2
H5 5441 Trgt 1
H4 5421 Long breakout
H3 5398 Go Short
H2 5390
H1 5382
L1 5367
L2 5359
L3 5351 Long
L4 5328 Short Breakout
L5 5308 Trgt 1
L6 5288 Trgt 2
R3 5493
R2 5442
R1 5408
Avg 5357
S1 5323
S2 5272
S3 5238
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5461 Trgt 2
H5 5441 Trgt 1
H4 5421 Long breakout
H3 5398 Go Short
H2 5390
H1 5382
L1 5367
L2 5359
L3 5351 Long
L4 5328 Short Breakout
L5 5308 Trgt 1
L6 5288 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-02-2012
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels
R3 5585
R2 5522
R1 5481
Avg 5418
S1 5377
S2 5314
S3 5273
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5546 Trgt 2
H5 5522 Trgt 1
H4 5498 Long breakout
H3 5469 Go Short
H2 5460
H1 5450
L1 5431
L2 5421
L3 5412 Long
L4 5383 Short Breakout
L5 5359 Trgt 1
L6 5335 Trgt 2
R3 5585
R2 5522
R1 5481
Avg 5418
S1 5377
S2 5314
S3 5273
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5546 Trgt 2
H5 5522 Trgt 1
H4 5498 Long breakout
H3 5469 Go Short
H2 5460
H1 5450
L1 5431
L2 5421
L3 5412 Long
L4 5383 Short Breakout
L5 5359 Trgt 1
L6 5335 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-02-2012
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels
R3 11277
R2 10995
R1 10812
Avg 10530
S1 10347
S2 10065
S3 9882
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11112 Trgt 2
H5 10999 Trgt 1
H4 10885 Long breakout
H3 10757 Go Short
H2 10715
H1 10672
L1 10587
L2 10544
L3 10502 Long
L4 10374 Short Breakout
L5 10260 Trgt 1
L6 10147 Trgt 2
R3 11277
R2 10995
R1 10812
Avg 10530
S1 10347
S2 10065
S3 9882
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11112 Trgt 2
H5 10999 Trgt 1
H4 10885 Long breakout
H3 10757 Go Short
H2 10715
H1 10672
L1 10587
L2 10544
L3 10502 Long
L4 10374 Short Breakout
L5 10260 Trgt 1
L6 10147 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(28-02-2012)
It was expected that Nifty will not slip below 5340 and complete correction within strong support range 5340-5415 and side ways market will be seen but negative Global cues and crude rates hike news led sharp fall seen yesterday but Sentiment reversed today after recovery in Global markets and reduction in Crude rates by more than .50% therefore equally strong recovery seen today and Nifty is trading above 5340 for the last 5 hours.
Intermedia term trend was at stake after slipping below 5340 but survived after more than 5 hours trading above it today. News based highly volatile markets for the last 2 sessions correction completion confirmation is required yet.
Nifty is hovering around 5340 for the last 2 sessions and last 5 hours intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns also today therefore possibility of sustaining above 5340 has increased but confirmation of correction completion is left through sustaining above.
Only watch sustaining above 5340 tomorrow for next wave of rally after correction completion.
Intermedia term trend was at stake after slipping below 5340 but survived after more than 5 hours trading above it today. News based highly volatile markets for the last 2 sessions correction completion confirmation is required yet.
Nifty is hovering around 5340 for the last 2 sessions and last 5 hours intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns also today therefore possibility of sustaining above 5340 has increased but confirmation of correction completion is left through sustaining above.
Only watch sustaining above 5340 tomorrow for next wave of rally after correction completion.
Mid-session Outlook(28-02-2012)
Deeper correction on the back of negative news and slipping below 5340 yesterday but not sustained and moved above today after sentiment improvement due to:-
1- Dow's futures more than 45 points up today.
2- Most Asian markets in Green today.
3- Reduction in Crude rates by more than .50%.
Question of sustaining above 5340 has to be replied yet and that will give confirmation of Intermediate term trend survival as well as rally continuation possibility after correction completion.
1- Dow's futures more than 45 points up today.
2- Most Asian markets in Green today.
3- Reduction in Crude rates by more than .50%.
Question of sustaining above 5340 has to be replied yet and that will give confirmation of Intermediate term trend survival as well as rally continuation possibility after correction completion.
Post-open Outlook(28-02-2012)
Strong opening and trading above the top of mentioned first trading range(5280-5340). Coming hours intraday charts patterns formations and sustaining above 5340 will give confirmation of Intermediate term trend survival and then high possibility rally continuation after correction completion.
Firstly watch sustaining beyond 5340 today for next moves confirmations.
Firstly watch sustaining beyond 5340 today for next moves confirmations.
Firstly Watch 5280-5340 today in Improved Sentiment
Pre-open Outlook(28-02-2012)
Asian markets are positive after the slipping of Crude by more than .50% therefore sentiment little improved today morning and Green opening will be seen. Sharp fall and panic bottom yesterday in ongoing correction and firstly its stopping as well as consolidation is required for correction completion confirmations.
Yesterday sharp fall was on the back of negative news flow but sentiment improved today morning and Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation is left also therefore firstly sustaining beyond 5340 has to be watched today and in the coming sessions because next big moves will depend on it.
Sentiment improved today morning therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 5280-5340 and prepare for next moves. Break out of this range will firstly decide the fate of Intermediate term trend as well as will give first strong indication of correction continuation/completion.
Sustaining below 5280 will mean high Possibility of
Bull/Bear Match Deciding Over between 5120-5190
Nifty-EOD Chart(27-Feb-2012):-
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(27-Feb-2012):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD and today intraday charts
1- 1098 Points rally in 45 sessions.
2- Rising Trend line broken down.
3- Strong support(5340-5415) broken down today.
4- Whole day down move in Falling Channel.
5- Long Marubozu Candle today.
6- Whole day trading between 5269-5449 today.
1098 Points strong rally but could not cross 5600-5700 resistance and retraced after 3 sessions good selling between 5588-5625. As such strong rallies completes correction between sideways market therefore correction completion possibility near the lowest of strong support range(5340) was considered but following most negative factors triggered sharp declines in Indian markets:-
1- All the Asian markets Red closing except SSEC.
2- All the European markets big gap down opening.
3- Dow's Futures traded more than 50 points down.
4- Sharp surge in crude rates and possibility of Petroleum rates hike by Indian Oil Companies.
5- As inflation will increase due to Petroleum rates hike therefore interest rates decreasing possibility turning lower in RBI Credit Policy.
Strong support of 5340 has been broken down today therefore Indian markets will retrace 20-Dec-2011 begun rally according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4531-5629):-
13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656
As correction is on therefore All 7 following supports of 2012 Rally were updated on 25-02-2012:-
1- Strong support and base formation between 4532-4670
2- Minor support between 4590-4640
3- Strong support between 4680-4760
4- Support between 4810-4900
5- Minor support between 4992-5068
6- Support between 5120-5190
7- Strong support between 5340-5415
5340 broken down forcefully today and given strong indication of intermediate term trend turning down and its confirmation will mean:-
1- As Intermediate term trend confirmation means a trend from 3 weeks to 3 months therefore more down moves upto this period.
2- Testing possibility of above Supports and Retracement Levels.
Correction is on and no indication of its completion yet as well as today lowest(5268.15) is not much above next support range(5120-5190) therefore its testing possibility can not be ruled out. As following most crucial levels are placed between/little above this range therefore this range will decide the fate of Long term trend:-
1- 38.2% Retracement Level- 5209
2- 55-Day DMA - 5160
3- 200-Day DMA- 5177
4- 200-Day SMA- 5172
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 1098 Points rally in 45 sessions.
2- Rising Trend line broken down.
3- Strong support(5340-5415) broken down today.
4- Whole day down move in Falling Channel.
5- Long Marubozu Candle today.
6- Whole day trading between 5269-5449 today.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
1098 Points strong rally but could not cross 5600-5700 resistance and retraced after 3 sessions good selling between 5588-5625. As such strong rallies completes correction between sideways market therefore correction completion possibility near the lowest of strong support range(5340) was considered but following most negative factors triggered sharp declines in Indian markets:-
1- All the Asian markets Red closing except SSEC.
2- All the European markets big gap down opening.
3- Dow's Futures traded more than 50 points down.
4- Sharp surge in crude rates and possibility of Petroleum rates hike by Indian Oil Companies.
5- As inflation will increase due to Petroleum rates hike therefore interest rates decreasing possibility turning lower in RBI Credit Policy.
Strong support of 5340 has been broken down today therefore Indian markets will retrace 20-Dec-2011 begun rally according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4531-5629):-
13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656
As correction is on therefore All 7 following supports of 2012 Rally were updated on 25-02-2012:-
1- Strong support and base formation between 4532-4670
2- Minor support between 4590-4640
3- Strong support between 4680-4760
4- Support between 4810-4900
5- Minor support between 4992-5068
6- Support between 5120-5190
7- Strong support between 5340-5415
5340 broken down forcefully today and given strong indication of intermediate term trend turning down and its confirmation will mean:-
1- As Intermediate term trend confirmation means a trend from 3 weeks to 3 months therefore more down moves upto this period.
2- Testing possibility of above Supports and Retracement Levels.
Correction is on and no indication of its completion yet as well as today lowest(5268.15) is not much above next support range(5120-5190) therefore its testing possibility can not be ruled out. As following most crucial levels are placed between/little above this range therefore this range will decide the fate of Long term trend:-
1- 38.2% Retracement Level- 5209
2- 55-Day DMA - 5160
3- 200-Day DMA- 5177
4- 200-Day SMA- 5172
Testing of 5120-5190 will mean Intermediate term downward confirmation and Long term trend will be at stake therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 27-Feb-2012
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(27-Feb-2012)
Main features of today trading are as follows
1- Whole day down moves.
2- Long Black Candle.
3- All the Indices closed in Red except FMCG.
Ratios
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.07
Nifty P/E Ratio(27-Feb-2012): 18.50
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 600
BSE Declines : 2278
NSE Advances : 180
NSE Declines : 1289
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5200 CE(Feb)- +265700(+15.12%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Feb)- +1513450(+31.64%)
Nifty- 5300 CE(Feb)- +364050(+29.820%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Feb)- +1035800(+19.20%)
Nifty- 5400 CE(Feb)- +693100(+40.28%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Feb)- -168950(-4.42%)
Closing
Nifty- closed at 5,281.20(-148.10 Points & -2.73%)
Sensex- closed at 17,445.75(-477.82 Points & -2.67% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,351.80(-236.50 Points & -3.12%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,633.64(-223 Points & -3.26%)
1- Whole day down moves.
2- Long Black Candle.
3- All the Indices closed in Red except FMCG.
Ratios
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.07
Nifty P/E Ratio(27-Feb-2012): 18.50
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 600
BSE Declines : 2278
NSE Advances : 180
NSE Declines : 1289
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5200 CE(Feb)- +265700(+15.12%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Feb)- +1513450(+31.64%)
Nifty- 5300 CE(Feb)- +364050(+29.820%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Feb)- +1035800(+19.20%)
Nifty- 5400 CE(Feb)- +693100(+40.28%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Feb)- -168950(-4.42%)
Closing
Nifty- closed at 5,281.20(-148.10 Points & -2.73%)
Sensex- closed at 17,445.75(-477.82 Points & -2.67% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,351.80(-236.50 Points & -3.12%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,633.64(-223 Points & -3.26%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-02-2012
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 5578
R2 5513
R1 5397
Avg 5332
S1 5216
S2 5151
S3 5035
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5462 Trgt 2
H5 5421 Trgt 1
H4 5380 Long breakout
H3 5330 Go Short
H2 5314
H1 5297
L1 5264
L2 5247
L3 5231 Long
L4 5181 Short Breakout
L5 5140 Trgt 1
L6 5099 Trgt 2
R3 5578
R2 5513
R1 5397
Avg 5332
S1 5216
S2 5151
S3 5035
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5462 Trgt 2
H5 5421 Trgt 1
H4 5380 Long breakout
H3 5330 Go Short
H2 5314
H1 5297
L1 5264
L2 5247
L3 5231 Long
L4 5181 Short Breakout
L5 5140 Trgt 1
L6 5099 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-02-2012
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels
R3 5587
R2 5532
R1 5435
Avg 5380
S1 5283
S2 5228
S3 5131
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5490 Trgt 2
H5 5455 Trgt 1
H4 5421 Long breakout
H3 5379 Go Short
H2 5365
H1 5351
L1 5324
L2 5310
L3 5296 Long
L4 5254 Short Breakout
L5 5220 Trgt 1
L6 5185 Trgt 2
R3 5587
R2 5532
R1 5435
Avg 5380
S1 5283
S2 5228
S3 5131
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5490 Trgt 2
H5 5455 Trgt 1
H4 5421 Long breakout
H3 5379 Go Short
H2 5365
H1 5351
L1 5324
L2 5310
L3 5296 Long
L4 5254 Short Breakout
L5 5220 Trgt 1
L6 5185 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-02-2012
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels
R3 10908
R2 10754
R1 10483
Avg 10329
S1 10058
S2 9904
S3 9633
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 10639 Trgt 2
H5 10543 Trgt 1
H4 10446 Long breakout
H3 10329 Go Short
H2 10290
H1 10251
L1 10174
L2 10135
L3 10096 Long
L4 9979 Short Breakout
L5 9882 Trgt 1
L6 9786 Trgt 2
R3 10908
R2 10754
R1 10483
Avg 10329
S1 10058
S2 9904
S3 9633
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 10639 Trgt 2
H5 10543 Trgt 1
H4 10446 Long breakout
H3 10329 Go Short
H2 10290
H1 10251
L1 10174
L2 10135
L3 10096 Long
L4 9979 Short Breakout
L5 9882 Trgt 1
L6 9786 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(27-02-2012)
Following most negative factors triggered sharp declines in Indian markets and almost confirmation of Intermediate term trend turning downward:-
1- All the Asian markets Red closing except SSEC.
2- All the European markets big gap down opening.
3- Dow's Futures more than 50 points down.
4- Sharp surge in crude rates and possibility of Petroleum rates hike by Indian Oil Companies.
5- As inflation will increase due to Petroleum rates hike therefore interest rates decreasing possibility turning lower in RBI Credit Policy.
Strong support of 5340 has been broken down and intermediate term trend turning down therefore Indian markets will retrace 20-Dec-2011 begun rally and its Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4531-5629) are as follows:-
13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656
Next crucial levels are as follows:-
55-Day DMA - 5160
200-Day DMA- 5177
200-Day SMA- 5172
As correction is on therefore All 7 following supports of 2012 Rally was updated on 25-02-2012:-
1- Strong support and base formation between 4532-4670
2- Minor support between 4590-4640
3- Strong support between 4680-4760
4- Support between 4810-4900
5- Minor support between 4992-5068
6- Support between 5120-5190
7- Strong support between 5340-5415
Next support range is 5120-5190 and between/little above this range following most crucial levels are placed:-
1- 38.2% Retracement Level- 5209
2- 55-Day DMA - 5160
3- 200-Day DMA- 5177
4- 200-Day SMA- 5172
1- All the Asian markets Red closing except SSEC.
2- All the European markets big gap down opening.
3- Dow's Futures more than 50 points down.
4- Sharp surge in crude rates and possibility of Petroleum rates hike by Indian Oil Companies.
5- As inflation will increase due to Petroleum rates hike therefore interest rates decreasing possibility turning lower in RBI Credit Policy.
Strong support of 5340 has been broken down and intermediate term trend turning down therefore Indian markets will retrace 20-Dec-2011 begun rally and its Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4531-5629) are as follows:-
13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656
Next crucial levels are as follows:-
55-Day DMA - 5160
200-Day DMA- 5177
200-Day SMA- 5172
As correction is on therefore All 7 following supports of 2012 Rally was updated on 25-02-2012:-
1- Strong support and base formation between 4532-4670
2- Minor support between 4590-4640
3- Strong support between 4680-4760
4- Support between 4810-4900
5- Minor support between 4992-5068
6- Support between 5120-5190
7- Strong support between 5340-5415
Next support range is 5120-5190 and between/little above this range following most crucial levels are placed:-
1- 38.2% Retracement Level- 5209
2- 55-Day DMA - 5160
3- 200-Day DMA- 5177
4- 200-Day SMA- 5172
Range of 5120-5190 will be watched for the survival of all the Up Trends
Mid-session Outlook-2(27-02-2012)
Indian markets are alreay in corrective mode and global markets weakness triggered sharp declines today. Nifty slipped sufficiently below 5340 therefore intermediate term trend downward possibility turned stronger and that will mean more down moves confirmations for the period from 3 weeks to 3 months.
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