6 Confirmations of Long Term Trend turning up

Technical Analysis & Research

Nifty-EOD Chart(10-Feb-2012):-

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6 Confirmations of Long Term Trend turning up

Long Term Trend turning up following 6 confirmations

1- 8 Sessions closing above trend Reversal 200-Day SMA (today is at 5178)
2- 9 Sessions closing above trend Reversal 200-Day EMA (today is at 5147)
3- 7 Sessions closing above trend Reversal 123 Sessions sideways market between 4720-5229.
4- 123 Sessions sideways market break out confirmation through more than 3 sessions sustaining above 5229.
5- 123 Sessions sideways market break out confirmation through more than 3% upward trading and closing near about 5386{5229+157(3% of 5229)}
6- Falling trend line break out.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Although corrections will be seen but Long Term Trend turning up 6 confirmations and it means high possibility of that rally continuation which started on 20-12-2011 from 4532.

5325-5382 Will decide Deeper or Sideways Correction

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 13-02-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(10-Feb-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5410-5427
2- Mixed Patterns between 5342-5382 in last more than 3 hours
3- Whole day trading between 5342-5427

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly selling between 5410-5427 was seen after heated sentiment due to last hour sharp surge one day before. Although Nifty slipped to 5341.05 but when Nifty was trading at 5409 then following lines were told in Mid-session Outlook at 11:29:00 AM on 10-02-2012

"Although Nifty is trading above 5400 since opening today but intraday patterns are signalling selling patterns also at today higher levels"

Last 3 hours mixed intraday patterns were seen 5342-5382 on 10-02-2012 and more than 5 hours mixed intraday patterns were seen in almost same range within 5325-5380 on 09-02-2012 therefore range of 5325-5382 has become most crucial and will give following moves confirmations:-

1- Correction completion within 5 days sideways moves(5323-5427) after fresh consolidation between 5325-5382.
2- Depper correction after follow up selling between or near about 5325-5382 on next Monday and then breaking down of 5 days range(5323-5427). 

Although deeper correction possibilities turned higher after higher levels selling and lower levels mixed patterns but next big decisive moves first strong signal will arrive from sustaining beyond 5325-5382 on 13-02-2012 and should be firstly watched for confirmations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 10-Feb-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 10-Feb-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 10-Feb-2012 2672.61 2476.49 196.12

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 10-Feb-2012 1335.59 1384.89 -49.3

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(10-Feb-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Black Doji Candle.
2- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
3- All the Indices closed with flat to minor losses except Metals which closed with minor gains.
4- Most of the Indices slipped from higher levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:1.15
Nifty P/E Ratio(10-Feb-2012):19.00

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1434
BSE Declines : 1515
NSE Advances : 645
NSE Declines : 804

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Feb)- -256750(-9.19%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Feb)- +258650(+3.83%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Feb)- -218600(-5.70%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Feb)- +285800(+4.26%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Feb)- +480200(+8.99%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Feb)- +722350(+17.11%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,381.60(-30.75 Points & -0.57%)
Sensex- closed at 17,748.69(-82.06 Points & -0.46%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,537.25(+3.65 Points & +0.05%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,890.85(-1.64 Points & -0.02%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-02-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5511
R2 5469
R1 5425
Avg 5383
S1 5339
S2 5297
S3 5253

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5467     Trgt 2
H5 5447     Trgt 1
H4 5428     Long breakout
H3 5404     Go Short
H2 5396
H1 5388
L1 5373
L2 5365
L3 5357     Long
L4 5333     Short Breakout
L5 5314     Trgt 1
L6 5294     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-02-2012

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5536
R2 5489
R1 5443
Avg 5396
S1 5350
S2 5303
S3 5257

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5490     Trgt 2
H5 5469     Trgt 1
H4 5448     Long breakout
H3 5422     Go Short
H2 5414
H1 5405
L1 5388
L2 5379
L3 5371     Long
L4 5345     Short Breakout
L5 5324     Trgt 1
L6 5303     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-02-2012

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 10832
R2 10711
R1 10588
Avg 10467
S1 10344
S2 10223
S3 10100

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10711    Trgt 2
H5 10655    Trgt 1
H4 10599    Long breakout
H3 10532    Go Short
H2 10509
H1 10487
L1 10442
L2 10420
L3 10397     Long
L4 10330     Short Breakout
L5 10274     Trgt 1
L6 10218     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 13 to Feb 17 2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5535
R2 5481
R1 5431
Avg 5377
S1 5327
S2 5273
S3 5223

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5486     Trgt 2
H5 5462     Trgt 1
H4 5438     Long breakout
H3 5409     Go Short
H2 5400
H1 5390
L1 5371
L2 5361
L3 5352     Long
L4 5323     Short Breakout
L5 5299     Trgt 1
L6 5275     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 13 to Feb 17 2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10975
R2 10765
R1 10603
Avg 10393
S1 10231
S2 10021
S3 9859

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10823     Trgt 2
H5 10735     Trgt 1
H4 10646     Long breakout
H3 10544     Go Short
H2 10510
H1 10476
L1 10407
L2 10373
L3 10339     Long
L4 10237     Short Breakout
L5 10148     Trgt 1
L6 10060     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(10-02-2012)

Following topic name was posted in the Weekly Outlook of this week:-

Blasting Rally is on After all trends turning Up

Positive weekly closing has proved the accuracy of our weekly projection.

Whole week sideways market between 5323-5427 with both lower levels buying and higher levels selling therefore Nifty will firstly trade within this range in the beginning of next week. Technically confirmation of all trends turning up as well as continuation of Bull rally but correction is main demand also. Following 2 demands in the beginning of next week;-

1- If Nifty finally sustains above 5427 in next week then that will be confirmation of Bullish rally after correction completion within range bound market of this week.
2- Sustaining below 5323 will mean rally after deeper correction.

Mid-session Outlook-2(10-02-2012)

Although sharp up moves in last one hour yesterday but we were having doubts because selling formations were also seen between 5322-5395 in last 4 sessions therefore condition of sustaining above 5395 was updated in all 3 previous outlooks.

When Nifty was trading above 5400 today then also intraday higher levels selling was seen and condition of sustaining above 5395 wae told in Mid-session Outlook today.

Indian markets slipped from higher levels today and Nifty is again trading between last 4 sessions main trading range(5322-5395). As trading at higher levels above 5395 also therefore next moves confitmation is changed and sustaining beyond 5322-5426 should be watched for the confirmations of:-

1- Depth of correction
2- Next phase of rally

Mid-session Outlook(10-02-2012)

As sentiment is strong therefore Indian markets did not crashed despite below expectations and disappointing IIP data.  Although Nifty is trading above 5400 since opening today but intraday patterns are signalling selling patterns also at today higher levels therefore sustaining above 5395 will be firstly watched today for fresh phase of rally confirmation above 5400.

confirmations required through sustaining beyond 5395

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 4 days Intra Day Chart(Feb 06 to Feb 09,2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Feb 06 to Feb 08,2012):-

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Nifty-Intra Day Chart(09-Feb-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 5365-5395 in first 3 days.
2- Support between 5322-5355 in first 3 days.
3- Mixed patterns in first 3 days.
4- Last one hour trading between 5325-5380 on 08-02-2012
5- Whole day except last half trading between 5325-5380 on 09-02-2012 with intraday mixed patterns
6- Four days range forceful break out in last hour on 09-02-2012 despite mixed intraday trading almost whole day.

Conclusions from last 4 sessions intra day chart analysis

Higher levels selling and lower levels buying in first 3 sessions between 5322-5395 and again mixed intraday patterns trading within 5325-5380 upto 03:00 PM on 09-02-2012.

Forceful break out in last half hour on 09-02-2012 despite mixed intraday trading almost whole day before this break out.

Just watch firstly sustaining beyond 5395 in the coming couple of sessions and finally sustaining above 5395 will mean fresh strong rally after very short term correction completion in sideways moves between 5322-5395.

As Break out on 09-02-2012 is after 4 days mixed intraday trading patterns theredore firstly confirmation is requied through sustaining above 5395 in the coming couple of sessions.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(09-Feb-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Good recovery from lower levels.
2- All the Indices closed in Green except CG and HC.
3- Long White Candle.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.21
Nifty P/E Ratio(09-Feb-2012): 19.30

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1816
BSE Declines : 1086
NSE Advances :  994
NSE Declines :  472

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5300 CE(Feb)- -327200(-7.86%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Feb)- +1197850(+21.10%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Feb)- -189250(-3.23%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Feb)- +1094250(+34.98%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Feb)- -71750(-1.11%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Feb)- +190700(+15.37%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,412.35(+44.20 Points & +0.82%)
Sensex- closed at 17,830.75(+123.43 Points & +0.70% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,533.60(+98.10 Points & +1.32%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,892.49(+80.34 Points & +1.18%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 09-Feb-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 09-Feb-2012 3985.22 2784.56 1200.66

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 09-Feb-2012 964.39 2001.97 -1037.58

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 09-Feb-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-02-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5529
R2 5476
R1 5444
PIVOT 5391
S1 5359
S2 5306
S3 5274

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5498     Trgt 2
H5 5478     Trgt 1
H4 5458     Long breakout
H3 5435     Go Short
H2 5427
H1 5419
L1 5404
L2 5396
L3 5388     Long
L4 5365     Short Breakout
L5 5345     Trgt 1
L6 5325     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-02-2012

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5637
R2 5544
R1 5490
PIVOT 5397
S1 5343
S2 5250
S3 5196

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5587     Trgt 2
H5 5552     Trgt 1
H4 5517     Long breakout
H3 5477     Go Short
H2 5463
H1 5450
L1 5423
L2 5410
L3 5396     Long
L4 5356     Short Breakout
L5 5321     Trgt 1
L6 5286    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-02-2012

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 10996
R2 10799
R1 10675
PIVOT 10478
S1 10354
S2 10157
S3 10033

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10880     Trgt 2
H5 10803     Trgt 1
H4 10727     Long breakout
H3 10639     Go Short
H2 10609
H1 10580
L1 10521
L2 10492
L3 10462     Long
L4 10374     Short Breakout
L5 10298     Trgt 1
L6 10221     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(09-02-2012)

As last 3 days range forcefully broken out therefore sustaining above 5395 tomorrow will mean continuation of running rally after correction completion within 5322-5395