Mid-session Outlook(29-11-2011)

Intraday correctin and volatile market between 4790-4870 was expected for today and Nifty traded between 4802.85-4866.10 in first 4 hours today. Correction of previous week started rally is continued today and intraday support also seen between 4804-4822. As lower levels intraday support today therefore expected that rally will be seen after correction completion.

Mentioned range(4790-4870) break out will be next trend confirmation therefore will be kept in mind.

Next Rally Key in the hands of FDI in retail

Pre-open Outlook
(29-11-2011)

All the global markets closed strong yesterday but today is rest taking day and all the Asian markets are trading with modest gains.  As climate is lukewarm today morning therefore Indian markets will also open flat and firstly trade  near about yesterday closing within resistance range(4820-4870).

Pull back rally is on but very short term indicators are overbought after yesterday rally therefore minor intraday correction is due and that may be seen today and new phase of up moves will start after sustaining above mentioned resistance range.

Volatility is possible today due to following 2 reasons:-

1- Profit booking possibility on the back of heated sentiment.
2- Uncertainity due to FDI in retail issue.

FDI in retail is holding the key of next rally therefore its amicable solution is must for next rally above 4870. If situation worsen and Parliament does not work then it will badly hamper sentiment as well as previous week started rally.

Minor intraday corrections are part of pull back rallies and that may be seen today. Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves betweeen 4790-4870,sustaining beyond this range will be next trend confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Nifty-EOD Chart(28-Nov-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions

Correcttion started on 28-10-2011 from 5400 and Pull Back Rally begun after its completion on 24-11-2011 at 4640. Fibonacci Retracement Levels of on going up moves are as follows:-

13.0%- 4738
23.6%- 4819
27.0%- 4845
38.2%- 4930
50.0%- 5020
61.8%- 5109
70.7%- 5177
76.4%- 5220
78.6%- 5237
88.6%- 5313

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 28-Dec-2011

Technical Analysis and Research For 29-12-2011

Falling Channel Break Out 

Nifty-EOD Chart(28-Nov-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 3 Sessions consolidation at lower levels
2- Falling Channel Break out

Conclusions

Last 14 days falling channel break out today after 3 sessions consolidations and it is strong bullish indication therefore continuation of previous week rally will be seen in this week.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 28-Nov-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 28-Nov-2011 1723.62 2026.21 -302.59

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 28-Nov-2011 1075.94 768.64 307.3

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 29-12-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(28-12-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 4785-4825
2- Whole day trading between 4775-4857

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Strong rally after whole day consolidations today and no signs of selling therefore continuation of rally expected in the coming sessions. Next resistance is between 4820-4870 and Nifty traded last more than one hour within this range,sustaining above 4870 will mean sharp moves toward 5000 because next resistance is above it.

Expected that up moves will remain continued and Nifty will test levels above 5000 in the coming sessions.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(28-Nov-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green with good gains.
2- Long white Candle.
3- Beginning of strong rally.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.04
Nifty P/E Ratio(28-Nov-2011): 17.56

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1922
BSE DECLINES : 879
NSE ADVANCES : 1119
NSE DECLINES : 337

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(Dec)- -312950(-12.43%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Dec)- +976450(+16.20%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Dec)- -469600(-12.50%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Dec)- +860550(+18.53%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(Dec)- +220650(+6.23%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Dec)- +121250(+5.62%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,851.30(+141.25 Points & +3.00%)
Sensex- closed at 16,167.13(+471.70 Points & +3.01%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,713.95(+116.25 Points & +1.76%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,153.36(+103.97 Points & +1.72%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-11-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 5036
R2 4955
R1 4912
Avg 4831
S1 4788
S2 4707
S3 4664

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4997     Trgt 2
H5 4967     Trgt 1
H4 4938     Long breakout
H3 4904     Go Short
H2 4892
H1 4881
L1 4858
L2 4847
L3 4835     Long
L4 4801     Short Breakout
L5 4772     Trgt 1
L6 4742     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-11-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 5036
R2 4955
R1 4912
Avg 4831
S1 4788
S2 4707
S3 4664

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4997     Trgt 2
H5 4967     Trgt 1
H4 4938     Long breakout
H3 4904     Go Short
H2 4892
H1 4881
L1 4858
L2 4847
L3 4835     Long
L4 4801     Short Breakout
L5 4772     Trgt 1
L6 4742     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-11-2011

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 9141
R2 8981
R1 8895
Avg 8735
S1 8649
S2 8489
S3 8403

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9061     Trgt 2
H5 9002     Trgt 1
H4 8944     Long breakout
H3 8876     Go Short
H2 8854
H1 8831
L1 8786
L2 8763
L3 8741     Long
L4 8673     Short Breakout
L5 8615     Trgt 1
L6 8556     Trgt 2

Bullish Bombs ready to Blast

Pre-Closing Outlook(28-11-2011)

That more than 3% strong rally seen today which was clearly projected in all the outlooks for today and this week. Nifty is trading between resistance range(4820-4870) and intraday patterns are showing consolidation therefore expected that mentioned resistance will be crossed and bullish rally will continue in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(28-11-2011)

First 3 hours trading between 4785-4812 and Nifty is slipping from intraday higher levels. As sentiment turned heated therefore some volatility is possible but finally continuation of rally is expected after consolidations.

Pull Back Rally is on

Pre-open Outlook(28-11-2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD,Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions and next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 4 Charts therefore not being repeated:-

Pull Back Rally will continue in next week

US Futures and all the Asian markets are more than 1% to 1.9% up today morning therefore gap up opening will be seen today morning. As up moves and Pull Back rally continuation was expected therefore it was clearly projected on 25-11-2011 and 26-11-2011 in following manner:-

Following line was told in Pre-Closing Outlook before the closing of last Friday market:-

As clear consolidation patterns at lower levels today therefore view is not bearish despite Red closing today.

Following line was also told in  Pull Back Rally will continue in next week

Trend reversal broadening pattern formation at the bottom and lower levels supports also in previous week therefore expected that Indian markets will consolidate and finally cross higher levels resistances in the coming week.

As some selling was seen between 4745-4767 last Friday therefore Nifty will firstly consolidate near about above range and expected that finally up moves will be seen today and previous week started Pull Back Rally will remain continued with today positive market.

Pull Back Rally will continue in next week

Technical Analysis,Research and Weekly Outlook(Nov 28 to Dec 02,2011)

Waves Structure in Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Nov-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-4 is continued
2- Falling Channel Correction

Trend reversal broadening pattern in Nifty-EOD Chart(25-Nov-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling Trendline 
2- Trend reversal broadening pattern at the bottom.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Nov 21 to Nov 25,2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 5 sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 4820-4870
2- Selling between 4745-4767 
3- Support between 4644-4678

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(25-dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 4696-4720
2- Selling between 4745-4767
3- Whole day trading between 4694-4767

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Mixed intraday patterns today. As soon as consolidation emerged thwn it was told within 1st hour in Post-open Outlook before the commencement of intraday up moves and when selling developed then it was also updated befote the beginning of down moves within 3 hours in Mid-session Outlook.

Sharp down moves seen after 1:45 PM but intraday consolidation patterns also seen within 4696-4715 in last one hour. As intraday support at lower levels seen in the beginning and at the closure of market therefore sustaining beyond 4696-4720 should be firstly watched next Monday for next moves commencement confirmations.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

All the trends are down and more than one year old corrective Wave-4 is on. Following patterns in EOD Charts are suggesting that finally impulsive Wave-5 will begin after completion of Wave-4 correction:-

1- Falling Channel pattern in Wave-4 correction and Nifty is trading near the lower levels of channel therefore expected that Nifty will get support near the lower falling line of channel and  that rally may start which may give Wave-5 confirmation after crossing of higher levels resistances.
2- Trend reversal "broadening pattern" formation at the bottom of correction therefore trend reversal and finally impulsive Wave-5 is expected.

As buying at lower level between 4644-4678 and selling at higher levels between 4820-4870 seen in last 5 sessions therefore firstly Indian markets have to prepare for next decisive moves in the beginning of coming weak. Trend reversal broadening pattern formation at the bottom and lower levels supports also in previous week therefore expected that Indian markets will consolidate and finally cross higher levels resistances in the coming week.

Pull Back Rally has begun in previous week and will remain continued in the coming week.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Nov-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Nov-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Nov-2011 1410.6 2215.6 -805

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Nov-2011 1763.47 726.92 1036.55

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Nov-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing
2- Dodi Candle.
3- Mid cap and Small Cap Indices closed in Green
4- Most Indices slipped from Intraday higher levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:1.05
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Nov-2011):17.05

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1554
BSE DECLINES : 1227
NSE ADVANCES : 802
NSE DECLINES : 621

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4600 CE(Dec)- +185550(+25.38%)
Nifty- 4600 PE(Dec)- +737250(+19.78%)

Nifty- 4700 CE(Dec)- +405300(+18.77%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Dec)- +1156150(+22.94%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Dec)- +1211400(+46.58%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Dec)- +463400(+9.78%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,710.05(-46.40 Points & -0.98%)
Sensex- closed at 15,695.43(-163.06 Points & -1.03% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,597.70(+11.20 Points & +0.17%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,049.39(+50.51 Points & +0.84%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-11-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4827
R2 4797
R1 4753
Avg 4723
S1 4679
S2 4649
S3 4605

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4784     Trgt 2
H5 4767     Trgt 1
H4 4750     Long breakout
H3 4730     Go Short
H2 4723
H1 4716
L1 4703
L2 4696
L3 4689     Long
L4 4669     Short Breakout
L5 4652     Trgt 1
L6 4635     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-11-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 4852
R2 4815
R1 4762
Avg 4725
S1 4672
S2 4635
S3 4582

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4800     Trgt 2
H5 4779     Trgt 1
H4 4759     Long breakout
H3 4734     Go Short
H2 4726
H1 4718
L1 4701
L2 4693
L3 4685     Long
L4 4660     Short Breakout
L5 4640     Trgt 1
L6 4619     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-11-2011

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 8763
R2 8654
R1 8569
Avg 8460
S1 8375
S2 8266
S3 8181

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 8681     Trgt 2
H5 8635     Trgt 1
H4 8590     Long breakout
H3 8537     Go Short
H2 8519
H1 8501
L1 8466
L2 8448
L3 8430     Long
L4 8377     Short Breakout
L5 8332     Trgt 1
L6 8286     Trgt 2