Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5238
R2 5200
R1 5157
Avg 5119
S1 5076
S2 5038
S3 4995

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5196     Trgt 2
H5 5178     Trgt 1
H4 5159     Long breakout
H3 5137     Go Short
H2 5129
H1 5122
L1 5107
L2 5100
L3 5092     Long
L4 5070     Short Breakout
L5 5051     Trgt 1
L6 5033     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 9906
R2 9847
R1 9774
Avg 9715
S1 9642
S2 9583
S3 9510

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9834     Trgt 2
H5 9804     Trgt 1
H4 9774     Long breakout
H3 9738     Go Short
H2 9726
H1 9714
L1 9689
L2 9677
L3 9665     Long
L4 9629     Short Breakout
L5 9599     Trgt 1
L6 9569     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(17-10-2011)

Following lines were told in Pre-Closing Outlook(14-10-2011)

last 90 minutes intraday patterns are also showing mixed formations therefore sustaining beyond 5112-5140 will be firstly watched for confirmation on next Monday.

Today intraday charts are showing that Nifty traded most of the time between last Friday range(5112-5140) and again traded with mixed intraday patterns in last 3 hours between 5108-5125.

It is clear that next strong moves have been cooked between 5108-5140 in last 2 days and this range break out will give following decisive moves:-

1- Termination of 6 days old pull back rally below 5108/5085 or
2- Continuation of rally above 5125/5160 but strong resistances at higher levels therefore complete consolidation is required.

Mixed intraday patterns therefore will be safer to get confirmation through break out of above mentioned ranges for next strong trend.

Mid-session Outlook(17-10-2011)

Although gap up opening but was not strong therefore it was updated within  first 2 minutes after opening in Post-open Outlook today and Nifty slipped also more than 30 points after our above message.

Minor intraday selling seen at higher levels today and until Nifty will not cross 5155 till then next up move will not be considered but market require complete formations for any side decisive moves and will prepare in the coming hpurs for that.

Intraday selling after lesser strength opening is weakness signal and sustaining below 5112 will be down moves confirmation. Indian markets are trading within mentioned range(5112-5172) since opening today and its break out will be next moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(17-10-2011)

Gap up opening today but not strong.

Bullish'W' Pattern in last 47 sessions

Technical Analysis and Research For 17-10-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(14-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bullish'W' Pattern in last 47 sessions range bound market
2- Falling Trend line break out last Friday

Conclusions

Correction begun on Deepawali-2010 from 6339 and range bound market within 4720-5229 in last 47 sessions. Many times Market take pause,become range bound and prepare for next moves. Indian markets remained range boud 5 months after 2008 crash and then strong rally begun in March 2009 and same possibility can not be ruled out this time also.

Bullish'W' Pattern in last 47 sessions range bound market,falling trend line break out last Friday and gap up opening will be seen today after strong global cues today morning. Nifty will trade between strong resistance range(5145-5220) today and follow up consolidation is must in the coming sessions for crossing and sustaining above 5229.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves within 5112-5172. As heated sentiment therefore profit booking possibility will also be kept in mind. Mentioned range will be watched first and break out of this range will be result of next moves today preparation as well as confirmation will be sustaining beyond 5112-5220.

Technical Analysis & Market Outlook(17-10-2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(14-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5073-5100
2- Last 90 minutes mixed patterns 5112-5140
3- Whole day trading between 5073-5141

Conclusions

Good lower levels consolidations last friday but next strong resistances are between 5145-5220 and mixed trading patterns also seen last Friday between 5073-5141 therefore Indian markets require complete consolidation firstly to cross 5141 and then finally to sustain above 5229.

Expected that sentiment will be strong Monday morning due to following reasons;-

1- Good RIL results last Saturday.
2- US market strong rally last Friday.
3- Indian markets benchmark Indices closing more than 1% up last Friday. 

Coming couple of sessions will be crucial for deciding the net conclusion of last 47 sessions range bound market(4720-5229). It is confirm that market require complete consolidation to clear next strong resistances(5145-5220) therefore Follow up buying/selling intraday patterns will be firstly watched for first indication of next big moves and will be updated in the Mid-session Outlooks in the Blog as being done for the last one year.

All the possibilities are very much open at this moment and Indian markets are not prepared for any side trending market therefore no guessing and let market prepare for a decisive market after(or without) break out then final conclusions will be drawn accrding to markets positions and intraday charts formations.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(14-Oct-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Green except metals.
3- Whole day up moves and trading between last resistance range of last 47 trading sessions.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.17 
Nifty P/E Ratio(14-Oct-2011): 18.55

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1419
BSE DECLINES : 1361
NSE ADVANCES :  735
NSE DECLINES :  687

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Oct)- -416850(-12.74%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Oct)- +1284150(+23.00%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Oct)- -626550(-12.59%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Oct)- +1507700(+53.94%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Oct)- +71100(+1.11%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Oct)- +478200(+48.90%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,131.35(+54.45 Points & +1.07%)
Sensex- closed at 17,082.69(+198.77 Points & +1.18% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,133.45(+29.55 Points & +0.42%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,907.96(+21.69 Points & +0.31%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5247
R2 5194
R1 5162
Avg 5109
S1 5077
S2 5024
S3 4992

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5217     Trgt 2
H5 5197     Trgt 1
H4 5177     Long breakout
H3 5154     Go Short
H2 5146
H1 5138
L1 5123
L2 5115
L3 5107     Long
L4 5084     Short Breakout
L5 5064     Trgt 1
L6 5044     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5275
R2 5214
R1 5178
Avg 5117
S1 5081
S2 5020
S3 4984

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5241     Trgt 2
H5 5219     Trgt 1
H4 5196     Long breakout
H3 5169     Go Short
H2 5160
H1 5151
L1 5134
L2 5125
L3 5116     Long
L4 5089     Short Breakout
L5 5066     Trgt 1
L6 5044     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 9967
R2 9833
R1 9753
Avg 9619
S1 9539
S2 9405
S3 9325

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9892     Trgt 2
H5 9841     Trgt 1
H4 9791     Long breakout
H3 9732     Go Short
H2 9713
H1 9693
L1 9654
L2 9634
L3 9615     Long
L4 9556     Short Breakout
L5 9506     Trgt 1
L6 9455     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 17 to Oct 21,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5479
R2 5310
R1 5220
Avg 5051
S1 4961
S2 4792
S3 4702

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5403     Trgt 2
H5 5338     Trgt 1
H4 5273     Long breakout
H3 5202     Go Short
H2 5178
H1 5154
L1 5107
L2 5083
L3 5059     Long
L4 4988     Short Breakout
L5 4923     Trgt 1
L6 4858     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 17 to Oct 21,2011)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10616
R2 10154
R1 9907
Avg 9445
S1 9198
S2 8736
S3 8489

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10422     Trgt 2
H5 10236     Trgt 1
H4 10049     Long breakout
H3 9854      Go Short
H2 9789
H1 9724
L1 9595
L2 9530
L3 9465     Long
L4 9270     Short Breakout
L5 9083     Trgt 1
L6 8897     Trgt 2

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 14-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 14-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 14-Oct-2011 1921.6 2015.64 -94.04

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 14-Oct-2011 894.46 1132.31 -237.85

Pre-Closing Outlook(14-10-2011)

Strength was told within first half hour today and whole day up moves seen. Consolidation patterns at lower levels today  but last 90 minutes mixed patterns also within 5112-5140.

As today up moves are on the back of more than .75% positive US Futures and more than 1% up European markets as well as last 90 minutes intraday patterns are also showing mixed formations therefore sustaining beyond 5112-5140 will be firstly watched for confirmation on next Monday.

Mid-session Outlook(14-10-2011)

We understood positive market immediately after opening today therefore firstly we covered our shorting positions within first 5 minutes and also told following line within first 30 minutes for Indian markets:-

strength immediately after opening

Nifty moved up more than 25 pomts after our above message and 47 points after our short covering message.. Following guidance for today trading has been given in both previous outlooks:-

Firstly trading expected between 5050-5100 and follow up buying/selling will decide next decisive moves today. sustaining below 5050 will be deeper correction confirmation as well as sustaining above 5100 will be first indication of up moves and confirmation will be moving above 5135.

Consolidation patterns today but selling also within 5090-5135 yesterday therefore up moves expectations are equally high today and confirmation will be after moving above 5135.

Post-open Outlook(14-10-2011)

Indian markets ignored weaker Global cues and showed strength immediately after opening therefore following lines of Pre-open Outlook(14-10-2011)will be kept in mind for next moves confirmations:-

"sustaining below 5050 will be deeper correction confirmation as well as sustaining above 5100 will be first indication of up moves and confirmation will be moving above 5135"

NIFTY-Oct F&O-1st Shorting of 13-10-2011-Covering

NIFTY Oct F & O(Shorted on 13-10-2011)-Cover immediately-CMP-5077

Pre-open Outlook(14-10-2011)

Almost all the Asian markets are in Red today morning therefore sentiment is little weak and expected that Indian markets will first trade near the lower levels of yesterday after flat to negative opening today.

Firstly trading expected between 5050-5100 and follow up buying/selling will decide next decisive moves today. sustaining below 5050 will be deeper correction confirmation as well as sustaining above 5100 will be first indication of up moves and confirmation will be moving above 5135.

As Good selling yesterday therefore firstly weakness expected today and above mentioned levels break out will be confirmation of today market preparation and next moves of Indian markets.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 14-10-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(13-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5120-5135
2- Selling between 5115-5128
3- Selling between 5090-5097
3- Whole day trading between 5068-5135

Conclusions

46 Sessions range bound market between 4720-5229 with strong resistances at higher levels between 5145-5220. Fresh consolidation was required today for crossing and sustaining above 4922 but intraday selling seen between above mentiined ranges therefore down moves are expected tomorrow.


Only one day selling is sufficient for begining of down moves and deeper down moves will depend on follow up selling tomorrow. Fresh resistance is 5090-5135 and until Nifty will not cross this range till then any up move will not be considered therefore sustaining beyond this range will be watched tomorrow for continuation or completion of today started correction.