Pre-Closing Outlook(28-09-2011)

Weakness with confirmation through sustaining below 4940 was told immediately after 1st hour today when Indian markets were positive and Indian markets slipped as well as hovering around 4840 for the last 4 hours. Range bound market today with selling at higher levels and buying also at lower levels.

As more selling at higher levels therefore weakness possibility in coming sessions turns higher.

Post-open Outlook-2(28-09-2011)

Nifty is trading between 4950-5000 since opening and slipped also from higher levels after today opening as well weakness indications from intraday charts also but confirmations will be sustaining below 4940 because market require complete selling patterns for any decisive down moves. Let market compeletely prepare then final conclusions will be drawn and will be updated.

Be Bearish below 4940 only.

Post-open Outlook(28-09-2011)

We never gossip and speculate as well as always try to update accurate projections. This fact can be verified from our last 4 years record in this Blog and orkut.com communities.

Whatsoever we told for today markets opening and firstly trading range in both previous outlooks all that proved 100% accurate. We posted following topic at 12:45:00 AM today,just go through and Keep in mind because you will get long term trend confirmations and trading policy in present market.

Long term trend decider 4720-5229

Flollowing line was told for today initial markets and 100% same is being seen after opening today:-

"firstly quiet markets expected near about yesterday closing(4971) and market will prepare for next moves between 4950-5000" 

Nifty is trading and preparing for next moves between 4950-5000 since opening today. Let market prepare for next moves and then conclusion from intra day charts formations will be updated in next Mid-session Outlooks.

Fist hour intra day patterns are showing weakness indication and confirmation will be sustaining below 4940.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(28-09-2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 1 Chart therefore not being repeated:-

Long term trend decider 4720-5229

Following lines were told for today opening in above mentioned topic:-

US markets are more than 2.5% up at this moment but Asian markets reaction will decide Indian markets opening and today trading first range.


Asian markets did not not reacted so strong and are mixed today morning. Indian markets also traded with mixed patterns within 4955-4980 in last 2 hours yesterday therefore sustaining above 4980 is must for next up moves today. Next immediate resistance is between 5020-5060 therefore firstly quiet markets expected near about yesterday closing(4971) and market will prepare for next moves between 4950-5000.

Long term trend decider 4720-5229

Technical Analysis and Research For 28-09-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(27-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions

Correction started on 05-11-2010 from 6339 and after 9 months correction Nifty is range bound within 4720-5229 for the last 35 sessions. Range bound moves and following lines are being continuously told for this market since 16.09-2011 and also being repeated again:-

1- Markets always require completion consolidation for any rally after such big fall. Big rally started in March 2009 after lower level 5 monthe range bound consolidations.

2- Investment decisions,long term positions and Portfolio management should be done according to break out of mentioned range.

3- As range bound markets therefore short term targets should remain within range with stop loss beyond range.

Break out of this range will give following moves confirmation:-

1- Sustaining above 5229 will be completion of last 10 months correction and strong rally will be seen to test minimum 200 Day EMA which is today at 5407. I would like add here that new top formation will also be considered after sustaining above 5740.

2- Sustaing below 4720 will mean crashing like situation and then deep down moves will be seen.

Resistances and supports between 4720-5229 are as follows:-

Next supports:-

1- Consolidation between 4758-4805
2  Consolidation between 4832-4881

Next resistances:-

1- Next immediate resistance 5020-5060
2- Strong resistance No.1- 5120-5160
3- Strong resistance No.2- 5167-5220

Global cues led violently volatile markets for the last many sessions and above mentioned ranges as well as technical positions within them will give next decisive moves first indication. I clearly mean to say that:-

1- Selling patterns within supports ranges will be breaking down(crossing 4720) strong indication.
2- Consolidation patterns within resistances ranges will be breaking out(crossing 5229) strong indication.

Market Outlook(28-09-2011)

US markets are more than 2.5% up at this moment but Asian markets reaction will decide Indian markets opening and today trading first range. Next resistance is at 5020 and its testing is possible but sustaining above 5060 will be next sharp up moves confirmation. 

Market require complete selling patterns for any type of down moves and until fresh selling will not develop till then down moves will not be considered. 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 27-Sep-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 27-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 27-Sep-2011 2132.8 2098.72 34.08

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 27-Sep-2011 960.76 690.71 270.05

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(27-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Green.
3- Global cues led strong markets today.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Nifty P/E Ratio(27-Sep-2011): 17.95

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1877
BSE DECLINES : 953
NSE ADVANCES : 1133
NSE DECLINES : 299

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Sep)- -567800(-10.88%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Sep)- +2660500(+58.03%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +543850(+8.02%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- +2583500(+62.27%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,971.25(+135.85 Points & +2.81%)
Sensex- closed at 16,524.03(+472.93 Points & +2.95% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,169.90(+97.95 Points & +1.39%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,017.27(+93.86 Points & +1.36%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5077
R2 5029
R1 5000
Avg 4952
S1 4923
S2 4875
S3 4846

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5049     Trgt 2
H5 5031     Trgt 1
H4 5013     Long breakout
H3 4992     Go Short
H2 4985
H1 4978
L1 4963
L2 4956
L3 4949     Long
L4 4928     Short Breakout
L5 4910     Trgt 1
L6 4892     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5093
R2 5041
R1 5009
Avg 4957
S1 4925
S2 4873
S3 4841

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5062     Trgt 2
H5 5042     Trgt 1
H4 5023     Long breakout
H3 5000     Go Short
H2 4992
H1 4984
L1 4969
L2 4961
L3 4953     Long
L4 4930     Short Breakout
L5 4911     Trgt 1
L6 4891     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9885
R2 9780
R1 9711
Avg 9606
S1 9537
S2 9432
S3 9363

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9819     Trgt 2
H5 9779     Trgt 1
H4 9738     Long breakout
H3 9690     Go Short
H2 9674
H1 9658
L1 9627
L2 9611
L3 9595     Long
L4 9547     Short Breakout
L5 9506     Trgt 1
L6 9466     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(27-09-2011)

Strong Global cues led today rally again proved that 4720 is strong support now. 10 months bearish moves and after that Indian markets are range bound between 4720-5229 for the last 34 sessions. Following lines have been told many times for the character of  range bound markets since 16.09-2011 and repeating again:-

Markets always require completion consolidation for any rally after such big fall. Big rally started in March 2009 after lower level 5 monthe range bound consolidations. As range bound markets signals are emerging between 4720-5229 therefore this range break out will decide that 10 months long long term correction is over or not.Investment decisions,long term positions and Portfolio management should be done according to break out of mentioned range.

Good up moves seen above 4929 and Whole day straight rally with mixed signals between 4955-4980 in last 2 hours therefore precautionary this range will be watched tomorrow for next moves confirmations otherwise resistances above 5000 are expected to test in the coming sessions.

Post-open Outlook(27-09-2011)

Following lines were told at 02:07:00 AM today.

Sentiment may remain strong today morning because US markets closed with good gains therefore strong opening is possible in Indian markets. Next resistance between 4900-4929 and sustaining above 4929 will be next upmove confirmation.

Nifty Today 1st hour trading range is between 4905.15-4928.30

Gap up opening and first hour trading within mentioned range is result of blasting Global markets. As Indian markets may be affected from political news due to news developments in 2G case therefore cautious approach is required.

Sustaining beyond 4900-4929 will be next decisive move confirmation therefore should be watched first.

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(27-09-2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(26-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

EOD Chart(26-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Buying between 4758-4805
2- Selling between 4845-4866
3- Whole day trading between 4758-4866

Conclusions

Global cues and depressing local news led weak market seen yesterday with lower levels buying and higher levels selling. Range bound market between 4720-5229 for the last 34 sessions and Nifty has almost tested its lower level today as well as consolidated also there with trading lowest at 4758.

2G Storm is enhancing and other Union Ministers are also in trouble now. 2G note latest controversy may hamper sentiment and volatile markets may be seen,if situation worsen and create unity problems for UPA then more down moves are possible. Nifty is absorbing all the Global uncertainities and 2G latest controversy between 4720-5229 and lower levels support also seen in last 2 sessions therefore sustaining below 4720 must be watched for fresh down moves confirmations.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Sep 22 to Sep 26,2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions

Nifty traded in last 2 sessions between 4758-4929 within following same situations:-

1- Global cues led weakness immediately after opening.
2- Firstly lower levels support
3- Higher levels selling in last hours and then down in last half hour..

Highly volatile Global cues and markets may open with huge gaps but sustaining beyond last 2 sessions range(4758-4929) will be next trend decisive confirmation because:-

1- No immediate strong resistance above 4929.
2- No immediate strong support below 4758.

Sentiment may remain strong today morning because US markets closed with good gains therefore strong opening is possible in Indian markets. Next resistance between 4900-4929 and sustaining above 4929 will be next upmove confirmation.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 26-Sep-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 26-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 26-Sep-2011 1240.6 2324.43 -1083.83

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 26-Sep-2011 1165.51 590.3 575.21

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(26-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing.
2- Hammer Candle.
3- All the Indices closed in Red except IT.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.00
Nifty P/E Ratio(26-Sep-2011): 17.46

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 768
BSE DECLINES : 2016
NSE ADVANCES : 308
NSE DECLINES : 1136

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(Sep)- +625050(+69.74%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Sep)- +361850(+4.91%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Sep)- +995100(+29.36%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Sep)- +287900(+3.66%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(Sep)- +835800(+17.39%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Sep)- -381950(-7.46%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,835.40(-32.35 Points & -0.66%)
Sensex- closed at 16,051.10(-110.96 Points & -0.69% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,071.95(-113.35 Points & -1.58%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,923.41(-117.71 Points & -1.67%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5011
R2 4945
R1 4890
Avg 4824
S1 4769
S2 4703
S3 4648

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4957     Trgt 2
H5 4929     Trgt 1
H4 4901     Long breakout
H3 4868     Go Short
H2 4857
H1 4846
L1 4823
L2 4812
L3 4801     Long
L4 4768     Short Breakout
L5 4740     Trgt 1
L6 4712     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5019
R2 4949
R1 4896
Avg 4826
S1 4773
S2 4703
S3 4650

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4969     Trgt 2
H5 4940     Trgt 1
H4 4911     Long breakout
H3 4877     Go Short
H2 4866
H1 4855
L1 4832
L2 4821
L3 4810     Long
L4 4776     Short Breakout
L5 4747     Trgt 1
L6 4718     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9845
R2 9662
R1 9526
Avg 9343
S1 9207
S2 9024
S3 8888

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9717     Trgt 2
H5 9641     Trgt 1
H4 9565     Long breakout
H3 9477     Go Short
H2 9448
H1 9419
L1 9360
L2 9331
L3 9302     Long
L4 9214     Short Breakout
L5 9138     Trgt 1
L6 9062     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-09-2011)

Global cues led volatile market today.Dow's Futures was 45 points up in the morning but slipped and was more than 40 points down,surged and was 93 points up also. All the European markets started straight recovery immediately after opening and Indian markets also retraced on their track.

Intraday support at lower levels but upmoves were slow and selling seen at higher levels. Nifty moved below last friday trading range lows(4832) but retraced and traded above more than one hour. All trends are already down and today intraday patterns are also showing selling at higher levels therefore some more weakness is expected.