Technical Analysis and Research For 21-09-2011

4720 Survival Today will Decide Next Long Moves & Trend



Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook For 23-09-2011


Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Sep 09 to Sep 22,2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 10 sessions intraday charts

1- Support between 4912-4960 
2- Nifty slipped a little below its lowest(4908) and closed within support range at 4923.

Conclusions

Technically Support range of 4912-4960 has not been broken down because Nifty closed within it yesterday but markets may be highly bearish after US market huge fall therefore deep Red trading is possible today and saving of 4720 will be watched first for stopping/continuation of next down moves confirmations.

Nifty-EOD Chart(22-Sep-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 32 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229
2- Strong resistance between 5110-5220
3- No strong support between 4720-4908 

Crucil Empty Zone between 4720-4908

Nifty did not traded between 4720-4908 during last 16 sessions and will trade between this range after gap down opening today. No support between this area and only minor support is at 4720 therefore free fall within this range is very much possible amid most depressing sentiment at present.

Conclusions

All trends are down and lowest of 32 sessions crucial supports have been tested yesterday and no noticable support of last 32 sessions left. Sustaining below 4720 will mean again free fall and then following next supports will be watched:-

1- 4538
2- 4353
3- 3919

Most dampened sentiment and any lower level is possible because Indian markets are completely bearish and all the trends are down. Market require complete consolidation and base formation for trend reversal for any sustained rally. As last 32 sessions range bound market has been its hope also therefore sustaining beyond its lowest of 4720 will be watched first of all. Global markets are melting and if Nifty sustains below 4720 then above mentioned 3 supports will be watched for stopping of on going down moves.

Breaking down of 32 sessions range will mean again deep down moves therefore 4720 survival will tell about next long trend and moves because it will decide that 32 sessions range bound market is being ended today in Bearish mode or not. 

Finally expected that Nifty will get support near about 4720 and range bound market within 4720-5229 will remain continued in next week.

Nifty-EOD Chart(20-Sep-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 10 Months correction in Falling Trend line
2- 94 Points Gap  on 05-08-2011
3- 30 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229
4- Strong resistance range is 5100-5220 within last 30 days.
5- Strong support range are 4912-4960 & 5020-5045 within last 30 days.


Inverted Head & Shoulders(Bullish) Pattern in last 30 days


Nifty-EOD Chart(20-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 30 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229
2- Inverted Head & Shoulders formation in last 30 days
3- Inverted Head & Shoulders means Bullish Trend reversal Pattern.
4- Nifty tested neckline of inverted HNS yesterday.
5- Nifty covered 1/3 of next resistance yesterday.

Conclusions

Firstly 9 months correction and after that 30 sessions range bound market(4720-5229) means cooking next long term trend in the same manner as happened in 5 months after 10 months crash of 2008. Inverted Head & Shoulders(Bullish) Pattern seen in last 30 days and Nifty countered its neckline and next resistance range(5100-5220) yesterday. Although Nifty crossed 5130(resistance) also and full strength in yesterday up moves but resistance upto 5220 is strong and market require complete consolidation to cross 5220.

Today Outlook

US markets lost all the intraday gains and closed flat to negative therefore sentiment may be depressed today morning because Asian markets intraday charts also did not showed strength yesterday. Expected that sentiment will be depressed today morning and weak opening may be seen.

Follow up consolidation is must for crossing 5220 and 5075-5130 break out will decide the strength of next resistance(5220) as well as next trend. Crossing 5220 will mean sharp surge and slipping below 5075 will mean testing of above mentioned supports

Follow up buying/selling in first 3/4 hours will give next moves confirmation from intraday charts formations and will be updated in the Mid-session Out looks.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 20-Sep-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 20-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 20-Sep-2011 2118.13 1799.29 318.84

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 20-Sep-2011 748.52 1066.21 -317.69

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(20-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle.
2- Green Closing.
3- All the Indices closed in Green and most with good gains.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.18
Nifty P/E Ratio(20-Sep-2011): 18.56

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1838
BSE DECLINES : 977
NSE ADVANCES : 989
NSE DECLINES : 441

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- -408350(-7.09%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- +1465350(+18.29%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- -555550(-10.13%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- +1898450(+50.30%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Sep)- +546050(+8.72%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Sep)- +1277350(+74.71%)


Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,140.20(+108.25 Points & +2.15%)
Sensex- closed at 17,099.28(+353.93 Points & +2.11% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,391.50(+59.65 Points & +0.81%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,300.17(+88.64 Points & +1.23%)

Accurate global sentiment recovery prediction at 01:34 AM Today

when Dow closed 108 points down at 01:30 AM and all the European markets closed in deep Red and sentiment was completely depressed then following line was told for Global markets sentiment in this Blog at 01:34 AM today

"global sentiment recovery is also expected today"


As was told for global sentiment,same happened today and Dow Futures was 60 points down in the morning today but recovered and 100 points up at this moment as we;ll as all the European markets are also 1.2% to 2.35% positive at this moment.

Proofs of Up Moves Prediction at 01:34 AM Today

More than 2% sharp rally seen in Indian markets today but when Dow closed 108 points down at 01:30 AM then positives market in following line was told only and only in this Blog at 01:34 AM today :-


As yesterday intraday good support at lower levels and global sentiment recovery is also expected today therefore yesterday range upward break out possibility can not be ruled out now.

Pre-Closing Outlook(20-09-2011)

Good consolidation yesterday and today patterns are also showing good consolidation formations. Trading  at present between strong resistance range(5100-5130) but above it also multiple resistances upto 5220.

 As good consolidation today also therefore crossing and sustaining above 5130 possibility is high now.

Mid-session Outlook-3(20-09-2011)

Dow Futures was 60 points down in the morning but recovered and 20 points up at this moment. All the European markets also moved up from lower levels today and now .75% to 1.75% positive at this moment.

Yesterday good support at lower levels and rally is continued because sentiment also improved today. Nifty is trading between strong resistance range(5100-5220) abd good consolidation is reqiuired within it for every rise.

Good selling was seen between 5100-5130 on 18-09-2011 and sustaining above 5130 will be first strong indication of up moves.

Mid-session Outlook-2(20-09-2011)

Good selling was between 5100-5130 on 18-09-2011 and sustaining above 5130 will be first step toward any up move and market require complete consolidation for crossing and sustaining above 5130. As strong resistances between 5120-5220 therefore follow up consolidation is must for any decisive rally.

Although profit booking signals emerged between 5085-5095 today but good lower level buying also seen yesterday and today therefore firstly sustaining beyond 5085-5095 today will be next moves first strong indication and should be watched first of all today.

Mid-session Outlook(20-09-2011)

Profit booking signals emerging between 5085-5095 today and sustaining beyond this range will be watched first..

Post-open Outlook(20-09-2011)

US markets closed at 01:30 AM today and its impact on Asian markets was updated at 01:34 AM and following lines were told which proved 100% immediately after opening today morning:-

"Asian markets will not crash today morning. Nifty traded yesterday between 5020-5060 with good support at lower levels therefore yesterday trading range break out will be watched firstly for next moves confirmations"


"expected today therefore yesterday range upward break out possibility can not be ruled out now"

Yesterday good support has already been explained in Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(20-09-2011)

 Upmoves will be seen today.

Pre-open Outlook(20-09-2011)

US markets recovered nicely from intraday lower levels today therefore sentiment improved and Asian markets will not crash today morning. Nifty traded yesterday between 5020-5060 with good support at lower levels therefore yesterday trading range break out will be watched firstly for next moves confirmations.

As yesterday intraday good support at lower levels and global sentiment recovery is also expected today therefore yesterday range upward break out possibility can not be ruled out now.

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(20-09-2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(19-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5050-5060
2- Buying between 5020-5030
3- Following Bullish Formations in last 4 hours:-
A- 4 Falling Channel formations
B- Break out of all falling channels
C- Bullish falling Wedge pattern formation in 3rd Falling Channel.
4- Whole day trading between 5020-5060

Conclusions

Nifty traded whole day between 40 points with minor intraday selling at higher levels and lower levels buying also but last 4 hours intraday patterns are showing consolidation patterns between 5020-5045 which has been explained above.

Global markets are crashing today and all the US and European markets are more than 2% down at this moment and more weakness may be seen tomorrow because  all trends are down and good selling between 5100-5220 in Indian markets.

Although Nifty got support at lower levels and last 4 hours intraday consolidation patterns also between 5020-5045 today but global cues are most depressing therefore firstly slipping below 5020 and then sustaining below following strong supports levels will be deeper down moves confirmation:-

1- 4969-5000
2- 4912-4936

Crashing global markets and Nifty is trading between 4720-5229 for the last 29 sessions with strong supports at lower levels and good resistance at higher levels. Multiple supports and resistances between 29 session range and next moves will get confirmation from break out of any side level one by one. Final next long term trend confirmation will be sustaining beyond mentioned 29 session range and detailed analysis of this range has already been explained on September 16, 2011,which is being reproduced as follows:-

Long Term Trend Deciding 27 Sessions Range(4720-5229)

Technical Analysis and Research

Nifty-EOD Chart(15-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling trendline resistance at the top of 27 sesions range.
2- 10 Months Bearish market
3- 94 Points Gap  on 05-08-2011
4- 27 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229
5- Strong resistance range is 5120-5220 within 27 days range

Conclusions

All trends are down and Indian markets are slipping for the last 10 months. Nifty opened 94 points gap down on 05-08-2011 and since then 27 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229.

Markets always require completion consolidation for any rally after such big fall. Big rally started in March 2009 after lower level 5 monthe range bound consolidations. As range bound markets signals are emerging between 4720-5229 therefore this range break out will decide that 10 months long long term correction is over or not.Investment decisions,long term positions and Portfolio management should be done according to break out of mentioned range.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(19-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red Closing
2- Black Candle
3- All the Indices closed in Red except Auto and CD.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.20
Nifty P/E Ratio(19-Sep-2011): 18.17

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1333
BSE DECLINES : 1452
NSE ADVANCES : 635
NSE DECLINES : 783

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +167300(+2.99%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- -7150(-0.09%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- -73600(-1.32%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- -135600(-3.47%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,031.95(+52.30 Points & +1.03%)
Sensex- closed at 16,745.35(-188.48 Points & -1.11% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,331.85(-14.60Points & -0.20%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,211.53(+-1.49 Points &-0.02%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5108
R2 5088
R1 5059
Avg 5039
S1 5010
S2 4990
S3 4961

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5080     Trgt 2
H5 5069     Trgt 1
H4 5057     Long breakout
H3 5044     Go Short
H2 5039
H1 5035
L1 5026
L2 5022
L3 5017     Long
L4 5004     Short Breakout
L5 4992     Trgt 1
L6 4981     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5107
R2 5085
R1 5061
Avg 5039
S1 5015
S2 4993
S3 4969

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5083     Trgt 2
H5 5072     Trgt 1
H4 5062     Long breakout
H3 5049     Go Short
H2 5045
H1 5041
L1 5032
L2 5028
L3 5024     Long
L4 5011     Short Breakout
L5 5001     Trgt 1
L6 4990     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9765
R2 9710
R1 9636
Avg 9581
S1 9507
S2 9452
S3 9378

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9692     Trgt 2
H5 9663     Trgt 1
H4 9633     Long breakout
H3 9598     Go Short
H2 9586
H1 9574
L1 9551
L2 9539
L3 9527     Long
L4 9492     Short Breakout
L5 9462     Trgt 1
L6 9433     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(19-09-2011)

It was clearly told that Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves and will prepare for next moves today. Nifty traded whole day between 5024-5060 and could not test mentioned ranges in previous outlooks today.

Minor selling(5050-5060) seen at higher levels and minor support also seen at lower levels between 5024-5030 today.

Indian markets out performed whole day global markets and now trading 1.00% down while US futures is more than 165 points down and European markets are also trading 2% to 3% down as well as all other Asian markets closed 1% to 2.75% down.

Both intraday selling patterns and buying formations but Indian markets out performed global markets today therefore today trading range(5024-5060) break out will be next moves confirmations and should be watched first in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(19-09-2011)

Selling formations seen between 5050-5060 today.

Post-open Outlook-2(19-09-2011)

Dow's Futures is trading more than 140 points down and European markets Futures are also .95% to 1:50% down today. All Asian markets are .75% to 2.10% down therefore sentiment is dampened today morning and negative zone trading is being seen after gap down opening today but Indian markets are out performing Global markets and now 60% down.

As good selling at higher levels above 5100 and good buying at lower levels also below 5000 therefore market require complete prepartion for next decisive moves. Coming hours intraday charts formations will give next moves first indication and and conclusions will be updated in the Blog.

Following levels break out will also give next moves indications therefore should be watched also;-

1- 5030-5075 for 1st indication.
2- 4969-5130 for confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(19-09-2011)

Selling and higher levels between 5100-5130 and buying at lower levels between 4969-5000 in two previous sessions. Next moves preparation range is 5000-5100 and Nifty will trade between this range today and prepare for next moves. Follow up buying/selling will decide that Nifty will break 5130 or 4969 for next decisive trend.

Let market prepare for next moves then will be updated in the Blog according to intraday charts formations.