Pre-closing Outlook(13-07-2011)

Following lines were told within first 45 minutes today in Post-open Outlook

1- Nifty will trade now between yesterday selling range (5550-5578) and prepare for next moves. Coming hours trading patterns (consolidation/distribution) will give next moves first signal.

2- Next moves and trend confirmation will be sustaining beyond 5550-5578.

Nifty traded whole day within mentioned very small range and intraday patterns are showing consolidation today as well as possibility of sustaining above 5578 is higher also but confirmation is must through sustaining above 5578 or forceful up move above 5578 because global markets pressure is high nowadays.

Post-open Outlook(13-07-2011)

Yesterday down moves were the result of crashing global markets and Indian markets are trading strong after getting positive Asian cues. Nifty has almost crossed yesterday selling range(5550-5578) within first 25 minutes of trading and made high at 5578.90. It is sign of strength but Nifty will trade now between yesterday selling range (5550-5578) and prepare for next moves. Coming hours trading patterns (consolidation/distribution) will give next moves first signal. Next moves and trend confirmation will be sustaining beyond 5550-5578.

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(13-07-2011)

Global storm and weaker IIP data reaction was so heavy yesterday that Nifty traded whole day below 200 Day EMA(5582) after gap down opening and followed global trend through deep Red closing. Nifty traded 8 days above between 5602-5738 and re-entered into last 39 sessions range(5329-5604) yesterday and Indian markets again turned into range bound mode within following 2 ranges:-

1- 5329-5628
2- 5178-5738

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 13-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(12-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in intraday charts

1- Selling between- 5550-5578
2- Mixed Patterns between- 5500-5538

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

As intraday selling below 5600 yesterday therefore Nifty requires complete consolidation for crossing 5600. Correction is on and follow up selling today will mean more down moves.  Nifty will first trade between 5500-5538 and follow up buying/selling between this range will give next moves first indication.

Next trading range is 5500-5578 and next moves confirmation will be sustaining beyond this range.Nifty will trade first between 5500-5538 today and crossing of this range will be first indication of next moves.

Trading between 5500-5538 will be watched first and conclusions will be updated in Mid-session Outlooks according to next moves confirmations.

Blog could not be updated today due to some personal emergencies. Services will be resumed again as early as possible and certainly before tomorrow markets opening.

Crashing Global Markets Vs Supports at 5600 & 200 Day EMA

Market Outlook(12-07-2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD and weekly charts,Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 2 Charts therefore not being repeated:-

1- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 12-07-2011
2- Rally after correction & Consolidation between 5610-5700
3- 2 Bullish Formations in EOD Charts
4- Nifty-Waves Structure From Jan 2008 Crash & Strength of Indian markets


Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)


Correction was expected and it was told also in all the outlooks which were updated for yesterday and this week. 5606-5628 had been strong support and and Nifty traded within this range more than 3 hours with intraday consolidation patterns yesterday. US markets are sharp down and Dow Jones is trading more than 180 points down and such weak closing will hamper the sentiment today morning and Red zone opening below 5600 possibility can not be ruled out but sustaining beyond 5600 will be strong indication of next trend.

Whatsoever may be bearish global cues but 5600 is strong support and and until Nifty will not sustain below 200 Day EMA(5582) till then view will not be bearish. Indian markets are in corrective mode and global markets are tanking therefore more weakness may be seen but firstly sustaining beyond 5600 and after that 200 Day EMA(5582) should be watched for next immediate moves confirmation.

As consolidation yesterday therefore finally up moves after more consolidations between 5582-5628 expected and sustaining beyond this range will be next moves confirmations.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 12-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(11-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts:-

1- Condolidation between 5602-5604
2- Falling Wedge(Bullish) Pattern Formation

Conclusions

Intraday support and consolidation at lower levels today. As all the global markets closed deep Red today therefore sharp correction seen but Nifty closed above 5610 on expected lines and again consolidated between previous support range of 5606-5628.

Dow Jones is more than 175 points down at this moment and such weak closing will mean possibility of trading below 5600 tomorrow and sustaining beyond 5600 be first watched tomorrow for next moves confirmation.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 11-Jul-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 11-Jul-2011 1889.74 1456.79 432.95

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 11-Jul-2011 736.35 662.71 73.64

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(11-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Black Candle.
2- Nifty got support at 5600 again
3- Most of the Indices in Red.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Nifty P/E Ratio(12-07-2011): 20.67 

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1235
BSE DECLINES : 1631
NSE ADVANCES :  529
NSE DECLINES :  858

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- +113150(+2.26%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- -526550(-8.35%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- +1155900(+17.66%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- -270450 (-7.54%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,616.10(-44.55 Points & -0.79%)
Sensex- closed at 18,721.39(-136.65 Points & -0.72% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,097.70(-18.20 Points & -0.22%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,339.88(-35.26 Points & -0.42%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5696
R2 5674
R1 5645
Avg 5623
S1 5594
S2 5572
S3 5543

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5667     Trgt 2
H5 5655     Trgt 1
H4 5644     Long breakout
H3 5630     Go Short
H2 5625
H1 5620
L1 5611
L2 5606
L3 5601     Long
L4 5587     Short Breakout
L5 5576     Trgt 1
L6 5564     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5703
R2 5681
R1 5649
Avg 5627
S1 5595
S2 5573
S3 5541

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5671     Trgt 2
H5 5658     Trgt 1
H4 5646     Long breakout
H3 5631     Go Short
H2 5626
H1 5621
L1 5612
L2 5607
L3 5602     Long
L4 5587     Short Breakout
L5 5575     Trgt 1
L6 5562     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11423
R2 11359
R1 11249
Avg 11185
S1 11075
S2 11011
S3 10901

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11314     Trgt 2
H5 11275     Trgt 1
H4 11235     Long breakout
H3 11187    Go Short
H2 11171
H1 11155
L1 11124
L2 11108
L3 11092    Long
L4 11044     Short Breakout
L5 11005    Trgt 1
L6 10965    Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(11-07-2011)

Correction was expected and also told 2/3 times in previous outlooks. As sentiment was depressed due to global markets weakness therefore little deeper correction was seen today. Nifty traded within 5602-5652 with intraday consolidation patterns today therefore expected that finally up moves above 5652 are expected in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook-2 (11-07-2011)

US Futures is trading 65 points down and all the global markets are trading or closed in Red except SSE Composite Index. Strong support between 5606-5628 and Nifty is trading between this range for the last one hour. Break out of this range will decide next Indian markets. As intraday pattterns are showing consolidations therefore finally up moves are expected.

Mid-session Outlook(11-07-2011)

All the Asian markets are in Red and Dow'futures is trading 47 points down therefore sentiment is depressed since morning today and Indian markets are down and also slipped form intraday higher levels.

Intraday patterns of are mixed and  first 3 hours trading range(5622-5652) will be watched for next moves confirmations.

Rally after correction & Consolidation between 5610-5700

Weekly Outlook(Jul 11 to Jul 15,2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD charts,Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 3 Charts therefore not being repeated:-

1- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 11-07-2011
2- Nifty-Waves Structure From Jan 2008 Crash & Strength of Indian markets
3- 2 Bullish Formations in EOD Charts

Nifty-EOD Chart(08-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-4 completed correction in 'ABC' Pattern.
2- Impulsive Wave-5 is on.
3- Resistance at 200-Day SMA(5742)
4- Support above 200-Day EMA(5582)
5- Resistance at Falling Trend line last Friday.
6- 200-Day SMA is above Falling Trend line.  


Conclusions 

Immediate Supports and Resistances are as follows:-

1- Strong support between 5606-5628
2- Resistance between 5705-5728

Trend confirmation levels:-

1- Uptrend confirmation level is 200-Day SMA(5742) which is above Falling Trend line and sustaining above it will mean break out of that trend which stopped uptrend 3 times earlier.

2- Downtrend confirmation level is 200-Day EMA(5582) which is below strong support range of 5606-5628. Sustaining below it will mean trend reversal.

Indicators Analysis

Weekly indicators are below overbought zone,moving in upside direction and MACD intersected Average line upward therefore indicating big uptrend formation. Daily Indicators are in overbought zone and some are showing downward moves therefore showing some down moves.

Minor correction expected to cool down indicators and sentiments. As weekly indicators are telling for more upmoves possibility therefore Indicators are signalling  more upmoves after some correction.

Conclusions (After putting all studies together)

Uptrend is very much intact,corrections are its parts and was seen last Friday.Now any Bearish market will not be considered until complete distribution patterns will not be seen minimum on EOD charts,

Expexted that Nifty will first trade between 5610-5700 in whatsoever bearish/bullish sentiment in the beginning of next week and also expected that Nifty will firstly consolidate between this range in the coming sessions.

Expected that Nifty will finally cross resistance range(5705-5728) of last Friday and rally above 200-Day SMA(5742) will be seen.

2 Bullish Formations in EOD Charts

20 Months Rising Trend Line & Pennant Formations

Nifty-EOD Chart(08-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Positions EOD charts

1- Started on 03-11-2009 from 4538
2- Nifty got support on it 7 times in last 20 months
3- Rising Trend Line broken down but moved above it sharply
4- Continuation Pattern Pennant Formations.
5- Falling Trend line of Pennant.

Conclusions

Nifty got support 7 times in last 20 Months at rising trend line. Although Nifty slipped below it after 'DTAA renegotiation' news in June 2011 but again moved above if after 4 days consolidation below it therefore mentioned rising trend line is very much intact and indicating up trend in Indian markets.

Corrective Wave-4 begun on 05-11-2010 from 6338 and Wave 5 started on 11-02-2011 from 5178. Last 8 months pre-correction and post-correction pattern is big Pennant which is continuation pattern. As larger trend is up therefore Continuation Pennant Pattern formation is also an indication of uptrend.

Nifty tested falling trend line of Pennant in 2 previous sessions and sustaining above it will be confirmation of next Bullish phase. Expected that Nifty will finally sustain above it and fresh up trend will be seen after possible correction in the beginning next week.

Nifty-Waves Structure From Jan 2008 Crash & Strength of Indian markets

Technical Analysis and Research For 11-07-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(08-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Nifty-Waves Structure From Jan 2008

Correction begun on 08-01-2008 from 6357.10 and Indian markets crashed in mid-Jan 2008. Correction completed in 5 waves on 27-10-2008 at 2252 and Bullish moves started in March 2009 after 5 months narrow range market. Waves structure of of ongoing up trend is as follows;-

1- 1st impulsive wave begun on 27-10-2008 from 2252 
2- 2nd corrective wave begun on 12-06-2009 from 4693 
3- 3rd impulsive wave begun on 13-07-2009 from 3919 
4- 4th corrective wave begun on 05-11-2010 from 6338(2419 Points rally of Wave-3) 
5- 5th impulsive wave begun on 11-02-2011 from 5178(1160 Points correction of Wave-4) 

Conclusions

5th impulsive wave begun on 11-02-2011 from 5178 and Nifty is trading above rising trend line of Wave-5 and also sustained above 200-Day EMA in previous week therefore Wave-5 and up trend is intact.

Above waves structure and 5th impulsive wave formation has been posted more than 5 times in previous months and as soon as we got first indication of consolidation on 22/23-06-2011 near 5270 then we started to tell only for up moves and non stop updated only positive moves because Nifty got support above 5178 and it was strong indication 5th impulsive wave survival.

Technicallly strong positive formations,patterns and developments are as follows:-

1- Nifty crossed and sustained above 39 sessions range bound(5329-5604) moves.
2- Nifty sustained above strong resistance of 5600.
3- Nifty sustained above 200-Day EMA.
4- Forceful moves and Nifty crossed  39 seesions range in only 5 sessions.

5th Wave is continued and Nifty sustained above 200-Day EMA,until these 2 lines are intact till then view will remin bullish despite whatsoever Greece problems,European issues,RBI credit policy,inflation and FIIs positions.

Indian markets are in up trend in long charts and 5th wave is intact therefore Indian markets are having potential and strength to form new high new high above 6357.10.

Larger views and analysis have been discussed above. Intermediate/Short term and micro analysis will be will be updated before Monday market.

Indian Stock Markets next moves after today intraday correction will be updated in 3/4 topics in the coming 2 days.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 11-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(08-07-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Positions of today intra day charts

Selling between 5705-5728

Conclusions

Correction after selling between 5705-5728 today but good supports between 5606-5628 also, Nifty will move between 5610-5685 in whatsoever bearish/bullish sentiment in the brginning of next week and also expected that Nifty will close within this range on 11-07-2011.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(08-07-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long Black Candle.
2- Dark Cloud Cover Bearish Pattern.
3- All the Indices closed in Red except Reality Index.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.97
Nifty P/E Ratio(08-07-2011): 20.87

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1091
BSE DECLINES : 1803
NSE ADVANCES :  438
NSE DECLINES :  968

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- +341100(+7.34%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- +134700(+2.03%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- +1707400(+34.12%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- +212600(+6.01%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jul)- +2119150(+32.28%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jul)- +52100(+2.50%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,660.65(-68.30 Points & -1.19%)
Sensex- closed at 18,858.04(-220.26 Points & -1.15% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,115.90(-59.85 Points & -0.73%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,375.14(-72.85 Points & -0.86%)