Mid-session Outlook-2(04-05-2011)

Nifty opened gap up,consolidated between 5496-5529 on 24-03-2011 and after that rally upto 5944 was seen. Nifty is again trading between this range today. Selling seen between 5532-5546 today and intraday support indication also between 5515-5525 today.

Narrow range market between 5505-5550 today. As lower levels support also today therefore this range break out may be toward any side and also give next decisive moves to Indian markets.

As consolidation signals started to emerge today therefore survival hopes of most important support of 5485 is still alive. Importance of 5485 will be posted after market today.

First of all today range 5505-5550 break out will be watched and according to that correction completion or continuation will get confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(04-05-2011)

Follow up selling between 5532-5546 and Nifty is down. 5485 is last hope for bull market after Nifty slipping below 200 Day EMA. As selling today also therefore slipping below 5500 is possible and sustaining above/below 5485 will be confirmation of Big Moves.

Post-open Outlook(04-05-2011)

All trends are down and deep Red Asian markets fuelled falling Indian markets today. Supports within 5496-5529,Nifty slipped fast and recovered from 5503. Intraday voltality and such recovery is very much possible in oversold market. If Nifty holds above 5529 today then minor pull back rally will be expected.

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 03-05-2011-COVERING

NIFTY MAY F & O(BOUGHT ON 03-05-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5545(WE SHALL BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 03-05-2011-MESSAGE

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 03-05-2011- ASIAN MARKETS DEEP DOWN AND INDIAN MARKET WILL BE VOLATILE THEREFORE HOLD AND COVER AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE

Pre-Open Market Outlook(04-05-2011)

US futures is more than 50 points down today and resultant all the Asian markets are in deep Red today morning. Negative zone trading firstly expected after weak opening today and next supports are as follows;-

1- Gap support between 5529-5561
2- Intraday condolidation(support) 5496-5529

Expected that Nifty will get support within above mentioned supports. Voltality, minor pull back rally and flat to positive closing will be seen today.

Post-closing Report(03-05-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Main features of today trading and Nifty-Micro Analysis of today Intra Day Chart has been explained in following topic:-

Technical Analysis and Research For 04-05-2011

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.73
Nifty P/E Ratio(03-05-2011):20.68

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES :  659
BSE DECLINES : 2181
NSE ADVANCES :  194
NSE DECLINES : 1228

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5500 CE(28APR2011)- +1060150(+319.18%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(28APR2011)- +857300(+22.58%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)- +2910900(+385.63%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)- +1161050(+24.28%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,565.25(-136.05 Points & -2.39%)
Sensex- closed at 18,534.69(-463.33 Points & -2.44% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,955.05(-165.05 Points & -2.03%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,435.97(-179.22 Points & -2.08%)

Tomorrow(04-05-2011) Outlook

Short term indicators are oversold and Falling Wedge(Bullish Pattern) between 5640-5555 today therefore Nifty will get support at following support level and minor pull back rally expected tomorrow:-

1- Gap support between 5529-5561
2- Intraday condolidation(support) 5496-5529
        
Positive closing expected after initial negative zone trading tomorrow.

Technical Analysis and Research For 04-05-2011

Technical Analysis of EOD Chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main features next supports after today trading are as follows

Next 4 supports

1- Gap support between 5529-5561
2- Intraday condolidation(support) 5496-5529
3- Gap support between 5485-5496
4- Support at Rising Trendline

Crucial developments of today

1- 55 Day EMA and 200 Day EMA broken down forcefully
2- Long Black Candle
3- Continuation Pattern Pennant Formation(Bullish) is existing after today big fall

Nifty-Micro Analysis of today Intra Day Chart for 04-05-2011

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Intraday Selling between 5675-5705
2- Falling Wedge(Bullish Pattern) between 5640-5555

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5821.33
R2 5765.67
R1 5665.33
PIVOT 5609.67
S1 5509.33
S2 5453.67
S3 5353.33

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5721     Trgt 2
H5 5686     Trgt 1
H4 5650     Long breakout
H3 5607     Go Short
H2 5593
H1 5579
L1 5550
L2 5536
L3 5522     Long
L4 5479     Short Breakout
L5 5443     Trgt 1
L6 5408     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-05-2011

 Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5842.00
R2 5784.00
R1 5676.00
PIVOT 5618.00
S1 5510.00
S2 5452.00
S3 5344.00

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5734     Trgt 2
H5 5696     Trgt 1
H4 5659     Long breakout
H3 5613    Go Short
H2 5598
H1 5583
L1 5552
L2 5537
L3 5522    Long
L4 5476     Short Breakout
L5 5439     Trgt 1
L6 5401    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11757.33
R2 11568.67
R1 11243.33
PIVOT 11054.67
S1 10729.33
S2 10540.67
S3 10215.33

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11434     Trgt 2
H5 11317     Trgt 1
H4 11200     Long breakout
H3 11059     Go Short
H2 11012
H1 10965
L1 10870
L2 10823
L3 10776     Long
L4 10635     Short Breakout
L5 10518    Trgt 1
L6 10401    Trgt 2

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 03-05-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(MAY FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5544-TGT-5644-CMP-5567

NIFTY(MAY CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5544-TGT-5644-S.P.FOR CALL-5500,5600(MAY FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5567

Mid-session Outlook-2(03-05-2011)

Last 21 days range and 55 Days EMA(5704) forcefully broken down today and Nifty is hovering around 200 Days EMA(5633) and sustaining below it today will mean Long term trend turning down. As today intraday charts suggested  intra day selling indications therefore we sold our long positions at 5597(proofs are available in blog-Just Click).

Sustaining beyond 5633 will be Long term trend confirmations and slipping below it will mean Bearish market possibility. Next support is 5561 below 5633.

Mid-session Outlook(03-05-2011)

RBI Credit Policy triggered intermediate term down trend after huge intraday voltality today. Last 21 days range and 55 Days EMA broken down today. More down moves and 200 Days EMA testing possibility can not be ruled out.

Post-open Outlook(03-05-2011)

Global cues are weak and Nifty is trading below 5700 since opening today. Indian markets are technically poised for pull back rally but voltality is possible due to weaker global cues and RBI credit policy uncertainity. Decisive moves are expected after credit policy announcements and sustainability beyond 5700 will be confirmation.

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011-COVERING

NIFTY MAY F & O(BOUGHT ON 02-05-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5697(WE MAY BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011-MESSAGE

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011- MARKET WILL BE VOLATILE,HOLD AND WE MAY WAIT UPTO RBI CREDIT POLICY & COVERING MESSAGE WILL BE POSTED POSITIVELY

Pre-Open Market Outlook(03-05-2011)

Indian markets are technically poised for a pull back rally between 5700-5800 but global markets are slipping today therefore sustaining beyond 5700 will be watched after weak opening today and according to that next market view will be formed.  Sustaining beyond 5700 implications have already been discussed in Post-closing Report(02-05-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook yesterday.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 5 Days Intra Day Chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main features are as follows

1- Water-Fall(Bullish) pattern in last 4 sessions
2- Last 4 sessions down moves are in falling Channel

Channel break out will give first indication of next strong move. As Water-Fall(Bullish) pattern formations in last 4 sessions therefore rally expected after upside break out.

Post-closing Report(02-05-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Black Candle
2- Most Indices closed in Red except IT,Reality,CG,Power and Health Care
3- Consolidation seen in last 3 hours at crucial support(5700)
4- Consolidation seen in 2/3 of 30 SENSEX Stocks

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.87
Nifty P/E Ratio(02-05-2011): 21.19

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1002
BSE DECLINES : 1861
NSE ADVANCES :  421
NSE DECLINES :  988

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)- +152900(+25.40%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)- +417850(+8.82%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(28APR2011)- +523150(+35.90%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(28APR2011)- +48150(+1.05%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(28APR2011)- +557350(+15.83%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28APR2011)- +142150(+4.44%)


Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,701.30(-48.20 Points & -0.84%)
Sensex- closed at 18,998.02(-137.94 Points & -0.72% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,120.10(-80.85 Points & -99%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,615.19(-100.12 Points & -1.15%)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(02-05-2011):

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Tomorrow(03-05-2011) Outlook

Last 10 days Intra Day Charts Micro Analysis is showing water-Fall(bullish) pattern and Micro Analysis of today Nifty Intra Day Chart is also suggesting last 3 hours intraday buying patterns between 5690-5710. 21 sessions trading range is 5688-5944 and consolidation signals emerged at lower levels of the range.

Technical positions are as follows:

1- 55 Day EMA is at 5704 today and sustaining it beyond will give intermediate term trend confirmation.
2- Nifty is at lower band of Bollinger Band and up moves within last 21 sessions range can be expected at this moment if follow up buying develop tomorrow.
3- very short term indicators(Stochastic and William %R) are oversold and very short term  up moves can be expected at this moment if follow up buying develop tomorrow.

Survival of Intermediate term trend is at stake,tomorrow is its deciding day and that will be decided according to sustaining beyond 5700.  Follow up buying tomorrow will mean sharp surge because water-Fall(bullish) pattern in last week and follow up selling will mean sustaining below 5693 and deep correction confirmations.

As lower levels consolidations today therefore up moves expected after follow up buying development and sustaining above 5700.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 02-May-2011