Pre-closing Outlook(26-04-2011)

Following line was told in Pre-Open Market Outlook today:-

"Next support range is between 5785-5805"

Down move stopped between mentioned support range at 5792.05 and recovered after 2 hours range bound trading within 5792-5812. Strong up move seen above 5812. Following lines must be kept in mind which were told in Pre-Open Market Outlook today:-

"All trends are up,weekly MACD has given rally confirmation and Pennant pattern formation is also giving confirmation to continuation on going bullish. It is clear that Indian markets are technically well prepared for rally but intra day charts of last 2 sessions are showing distribution patterns therefore very short term down move is due and will be seen today." 

Predicted down move seen and also stopped in predicted support range. Support and resistances between 5785-5912 are as follows:-

Support-5785-5812
Resistance- 5874-5912

Crucial levels and ranges are as follows:-

1-Next moves preparation range-5812-5874
2- Up move confirmation 1st level- 5874
3- Strong rally confirmation 2nd level- 5912
4- Down move confirmation 1st level- 5812
5- Deep correction confirmation 2nd level- 5785

Levels have been given for any type of move confirmation but should be kept in mind that expeted correction had been due after last 2 sesions selling and completed today after 2 hours consolidation between 5785-5812

Sharp recovery seen from lower levels today and expected that Nifty will first trade between 5850-5912 and voltality may be high also. Expected that Nifty will finally cross 5912/5940 in the coming sessions after some more consolidation within above mentioned ranges.

Mid-session Outlook-2(26-04-2011)

Nifty moved above 5812 and also trading above for the last half hour. It is positive and if sustains above 5812 today  then will be first strong indication of today started correction completion.

Mid-session Outlook(26-04-2011)

Higher levels intraday selling in 2 last sessions,today down moves and following line for today trading has already been told in previous outlooks:-

"Next support range is between 5785-5805 therefore Nifty will first trade between 5805-5880 today"

Down move stopped between mentioned support range at 5792.05 and since then Nifty is trading within 5792-5812 and preparing for next moves. Next moves confirmation range is 5785-5812.Let Indian markets prepare for next moves within mentioned range and sustaining beyond will give following conclusions:-

1- Above 5812- will mean very short term correction completion and testing of resistances near 5900

2- Below 5792- will mean short term correction continuation and testing of supports near 5700

Conclusions from coming hours intraday charts will be drawn and posted accordingly. As selling signals are being seen in last 1 hour intra day chart therefore view is cautious but confirmation is required. Market is required complete buying or selling within mentioned range for any side decisive moves,let this process complete then final concludions will be drawn.

Live proofs are available in yesterday outlooks that whatsoever down moves are being seen in Indian markets today all that I told non stop in all the Mid-session Outlooks yesterday. Not only today but this fact can be verified from my previous outlooks that Indian markets next moves are always predicted well before its begining in this Blog. 

Post-open Outlook(26-04-2011)

Sharp down after weak opening today and it is weakness confirmation. Next support range is between 5785-5805 and will be watched for next moves confirmations.

NIFTY-APR F&O-1ST SHORTING OF 25-04-2011-COVERING

NIFTY APR F & O(SHORTED ON 26-04-2011)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5856

Pre-Open Market Outlook(26-04-2011)

All trends are up,weekly MACD has given rally confirmation and Pennant pattern formation is also giving confirmation to continuation on going bullish. It is clear that Indian markets are technically well prepared for rally but intra day charts of last 2 sessions are showing distribution patterns therefore very short term down move is due and will be seen today.

Next support range is between 5785-5805 therefore Nifty will first trade between 5805-5880 today. Confirm narrow range selling in last 2 sessions,market market require fresh consolidation for a rally above 5912 and follow up selling today will mean deeper correction to test mentioned first support range.

Nifty will first hover around 5865 after Weak opening today and prepare for next moves. First expected trading range is 5840-4880. Most of the time negative zone trading and Red closing expected today

Post-closing Report(25-04-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Main features of today trading are as follows:-

1- Moderate reversal Gravestone Shooting Star/Gravestone Doji Bearish Candle.
2- Intra day genuine selling pattern
3- Flat closing in almost all the Indices.
4- Follow up selling today after 21st Apr selling.

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio:1.02
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-04-2011):21.94

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1342
BSE DECLINES : 1568
NSE ADVANCES :  602
NSE DECLINES :  806

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5700 CE(28APR2011)- -1421600(-46.60%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(28APR2011)- +14550(+0.17%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(28APR2011)- -52050(-1.33%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28APR2011)- -307950(-4.06%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(28APR2011)- +1152100(+19.99%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(28APR2011)- +194500(+2.65%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,874.50(-10.20 Points & -0.17%)
Sensex- closed at 19,584.31(-17.92 Points & -0.09% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,327.55(+13.60 Points & +0.16%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,899.90(+21.33 Points & +0.24%)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(25-04-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Tomorrow(26-04-2011) Outlook

3 days selling formations


As and when intra day selling developed then intra day selling patterns formarions was told daily in Mid-session Outlooks. Just click following links and understand development of selling one by one in last 3 days:- 

1- Rising Wedge(Bearish Pattern) formation between 5825-5855 on 20-04-2011.
2- Higher levels selling between 5880-5912 on 21-04-2011.
3- Genuine selling between 5874-5905 today.

As genuine selling today therefore above mentioned selling ranges are resistances and very short term correction or correction within range bound market within 5700-5900 will be seen. All trends are up and Indian markets are technically well poised for a strong rally but previous 2 sessions selling therefore Indian markets will firstly slip tomorrow. Next support range is near 5800 therefore Nifty will first trade  below 5880 and most of the time negative zone trading and Red closing expected tomorrow..

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Apr-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Aprket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Apr-2011 1560.16 1937.75 -377.59

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Aprket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Apr-2011 1082.1 845.48 236.62

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Apr-2011

Next expected moves will be posted today in 
"Post-closing Report(25-04-2011) &
Tomorrow Outlook"

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(25-04-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Genuine Selling seen between 5874-5905 today and it was follow up selling after higher levels selling between 5880-5912 on 21-04-2011.

As soon as selling indicated from intra day charts then following line was told in Mid-session Outlook-2 at 12:25:00 PM today:-

"Intra day charts of today are suggesting selling patterns at higher levels today also."

Following line was also told in Pre-closing Outlook at 03:05:00 PM today:-

"Short term down move possibility increased"

Selling was informed well before the begining of down moves and Indian markets closed at the lowest of the day.

Detailed analysis will be posted today in "Post-closing Report(25-04-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook"

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-04-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5950
R2 5928
R1 5901
Avg 5879
S1 5852
S2 5830
S3 5803

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5923     Trgt 2
H5 5912     Trgt 1
H4 5900     Long breakout
H3 5887     Go Short
H2 5882
H1 5878
L1 5869
L2 5865
L3 5860     Long
L4 5847     Short Breakout
L5 5835     Trgt 1
L6 5824     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-04-2011

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 5965
R2 5945
R1 5915
Avg 5895
S1 5865
S2 5845
S3 5815

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5936     Trgt 2
H5 5924     Trgt 1
H4 5913    Long breakout
H3 5899     Go Short
H2 5895
H1 5890
L1 5881
L2 5876
L3 5872     Long
L4 5858     Short Breakout
L5 5847     Trgt 1
L6 5835     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-04-2011

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 12135
R2 12080
R1 12000
Avg 11945
S1 11865
S2 11810
S3 11730

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12056     Trgt 2
H5 12025     Trgt 1
H4 11995     Long breakout
H3 11958     Go Short
H2 11945
H1 11933
L1 11908
L2 11896
L3 11883     Long
L4 11846     Short Breakout
L5 11816     Trgt 1
L6 11785     Trgt 2

NIFTY-APR F&O-1ST SELLING OF 25-04-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(APR FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-5926-TGT5836-CMP-5888

NIFTY(APR PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5926-TGT5836-S.P.FOR PUT-5800,5900(APR FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5888

Pre-closing Outlook(25-04-2011)

Following line was told in Mid-session Outlook-2:-

"Intra day charts of today are suggesting selling patterns at higher levels today also."

As selling at higher levels therefore Indian markets slipped from higher levels in last hour today.

Short term down move possibility increased but It will be better to wait for sustaining beyond 21-04-2011 range(5864-5912) and also will be watched first for next moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(25-04-2011)

Technically market is poised for rally but higher levels selling seen on 21-04-2011 and Nifty is trading between 5874-5906 since opening today and preparing for mext moves within mentioned range today. Intra day charts of today are suggesting selling patterns at higher levels today also.

As lower level buying was also seen on 21-04-2011 therefore sustaining beyond 21-04-2011 range(5864-5912) will be watched first for next moves confirmations.

Let market prepare then final conclusions will be drawn according to coming hours intra day trading patterns.

Mid-session Outlook(25-04-2011)

21-04-2011 trading range was- (5864-5912).
25-04-2011 trading range at 10:38 AM is- (5874-5906)

Following lines were told in Post-closing Report(21-04-2011) & Monday Outlook on 21-04-2011.As applicable today also therefore repeating:-

1- "Indian market require more preparation for any side sustained moves and that will be done near about today range(5864-5912) on Monday"

2- "First 3/4 hours intraday patterns will certainly be watched first on Monday and follow up buying and consolidation will be next rally confirmation"

Post-open Outlook(25-04-2011)

Whatsoever is being happened in today Indian markets,was already told in following lines on 21-04-2011:-

1- I told at 12:34 PM on 21-04-2011 in Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart- "Mixed patterns at this moment and let market prepare for one side move then confirmation will be possible"

2- I told at 12:34 PM on 21-04-2011 in Pre-closing Report(21-04-2011)- "Market require more preperation for any side sustained moves and that will be done near today range on Monday"

Above lines were told in all the outlooks for today market and same is seen today and Indian markets are trading between 21-04-2011 range since opening today. Let Indian markets prepare then final moves will be seen after break out of 21-04-2011 range(5864-5912).

Rally is on after completion of Corrections

Weekly Outlook(25-04 to 29-04-2011)

Wave-5 is on,all trends are up,Long term indicators are cooled down after Wave-4 correction. Short term indicators also chilled after previous week finished 38.2% 'ABC' correction(Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5)

Corrective Wave-4 and Wave-5 Corrections are as follows:-

1- 3rd impulsive wave begun on 13-07-2009 from 3919
2- Wave-3 finished on 05-11-2010 after gaining 2419 Points
3- Corrective Wave-4 started same day and loose 1161 Points.
4- Wave-4 finished on 11-02-2011 at 5177
5- Impulsive Wave-5 started same day and its Sub Wave-1 started 'ABC'correction from 5944 after 767 Points Rally
6- 38,2% 'ABC'correction completed at 5693 after loosing 251 Points.

1-completion of Corrections Chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 'ABC' has completed correction in last week and impulsive Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 is on for strong rally.

Conclusions

Market is in up trend and and EOD chart is showing Pennant pattern formation in its corrective move which is continuation pattern. It means continuation of on going trend because it is not a trend reversal pattern but trend continuation pattern. As on going trend is Bullish therefore its continuation expected after Pennant falling trend line upward intersection in the coming weeks.

Most important development 3 week before that MACD line upward intersection of Average line and it is confirmation of rally. Weekly MACD cross over gives confirmation to long trend therefore strong confirmation to up trend 3 weeks before. Both lines started to move up near equilibrium line and MACD line has moved it above therefore it is strong indication of rally in the coming week.

It is clear from Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(21-04-2011) higher level selling and lower level buying therefore mixed patterns on 21-04-2011 and Indian market require more preperation for any side sustained moves and that will be done near 21-04-2011 range(5864-5912) on Monday.

As resistance range and some higher levels selling on 21-04-2011 therefore minor intra day or very short term down moves or correction may be possible in consolidation process but finally market will move up in this week and also very much expected that Nifty will cross immediate resistances and sustain above as well.


Indian markets are well settled for strong rally toward minimum 6120 and expected also in this week. Rally confirmation level is sustaining above 5940.