Post-open Outlook(18-04-2011)

Today outlook was posted in Following Topic with giving lines at 01:42:00 PM on 16-04-2011

Positive Market on 18-04-2011

Intraday patterns of last Friday showed lower level support and bullish pattern also therefore Nifty will not dip and will firstly trade between 5810-5875. As minor correction has been completed and bullish intraday pattern(Falling Wedge) also last Friday therefore firstly fresh consolidations and follow up buying between 5810-5875 will be seen after positive opening next Monday

Just verify above lines(which were told 2 days before) from today market and that will prove that today story was written 2 days before.

Nifty is trading at 5875 and sustaining above today will mean sharp rally.

Weekly Outlook(18-04-2011 to 21-04-2011)

Corrective Sub Wave-F of Wave-5 is on after Sub Wave-E fast 596 points gains in 13 sessions. All trends are up therefore Bullish market is very much alive. Indian markets reacted sharply on vews in previous week, firstly 125.80 points sharp surge on sudden $7 fall and after that  86.95(61.8%) Points down on so called INFY below expectation results. Nifty traded between 5736-5944 in last 2 weks and this range break out will give following conclusions:-

1- Sustaining above 5944 will mean rally after correction completion to test minimum 6120 fast.
2- Sustaining below 5736 will mean correction continuation to test 5651/5561.

Wave-5 Sub Waves with immediate Support & Resistance

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Next trading range is 5736-5944 and contrary developments of news and technicals which are as follows:-

1- Negative news of Inflation rise,Crude rates rise again and sharp fall after Infy results.As per my view INFY over reacted after  results and closed 9.58% down after announcing good results and guidance
2- Positive technical formations are as follows:-
a- Falling Wedge(Bullish) Pattern between 5850-5812 on 15-04-2011.
b- Weekly MACD Line Positive Cross Over and its means long up trend formation possibility.
c- Continuation Pattern 'Pennant'Formations and its means continuation of on going trend which is Up Trend. Falling trend line(5940) cross-over will be its confirmation.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Wave-5 is on After 'ABC' Correction Completion Chart

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Nifty will trade first between 5736-5944 and prepare for next moves between this range. Nifty crossed almost all the resistances in sharp rally on 13-04-2011 but slipped also on 15-04-2011 and selling patterns seen in Bank,Reality and Auto Stocks therefore for any rally market require consolidation firstly.

Most Asian markets showed consolidation patterns therefore good sentiment expected Monday morning after positive trading Asian markets as well as Green opening also expected in Indian markets and Nifty will trade between first between 5800-5875.

Falling Wedge(Bullish) Pattern between 5850-5812 and buying between 5808-5826 seen on 15-04-2011 therefore any down move will be considered after sustaining below 5808 and for this fresh commencement of selling required between 5800-5875 on 18-04-2011. Any down move or voltality may be possible between 5736-5944 but Two Positive Formation in Weekly Chart therefore until complete selling will not develop between 5736-5944 till then any down move will not be possible.

Wave-5 is on after 'ABC' correction completion,intraday charts signalling consolidations and weekly charts positive developments also therefore consolidation begining and positive closing expected in the coming week. As some selling also last Friday therefore 5800/5736 will be watched for more correction confirmation. Crossing 5875 and sustaining above 5944 will be confirmation of 6120 fast.

As mixed intra day patterns after INFY led steep fall last Friday therefore confirmations are must. As soon as trend will clear then will be posted accoedingly in the coming sessions.

Corrective Sub Wave-F of Wave-5

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Corrective Sub Wave-F of Wave-5 is on after Sub Wave-E fast 596 points gains in 13 sessions.

Two Positive Formation in Weekly Chart

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Two Positive Formation in Weekly Chart

1- MACD Line Positive Cross Over
2- Continuation Pattern 'Pennant'Formations

That correction is on which was started on Diwali 2010 and Continuation Pattern 'Pennant'Formation has been developed therefore expected that finally upward cross over after crossing Falling Trend line will be seen.

Falling Trend line is at 5940 and Nifty could not moves above it in previous and retraced. Consolidation in the begining of coming week will be strong possibility of crossing 5940 and strong rally toward minimum upto 6120.

Weekly MACD line cross over means strong move possibility and positive cross over had been in last weeks therefore technically Indian markets are well prepared for that rally which is very much possible in the coming weeks.

Positive Market on 18-04-2011

Post-closing Report(15-04-2011) & Monday Outlook

INFY over reacted after  results today and closed 9.58% down after announcing good results and guidance. Maeket sharply down immediately after inflation rise news and Banks stocks also beaten down as well. Other features are as follows:-

1- Bearish Harami Candle
2- Falling Wedge(Bullish) Pattern between 5850-5812
3- Most of the Indices closed in Red
4- Higher levels selling and lower levels buying seen in intra day chart.

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.98
Nifty P/E Ratio(15-04-2011): 22.02

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1276
BSE DECLINES : 1630
NSE ADVANCES :  515
NSE DECLINES :  894

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5800 CE(28APR2011)- +1122450(+29.04%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28APR2011)- -822450(-12.29%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(28APR2011)- +1142850(+23.07%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(28APR2011)- -2027050(-37.09%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,824.55(-86.95 Points & -1.47%)
Sensex- closed at 19,386.82(-310.04 Points & -1.57% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,317.85(-31.20 Points & -0.37%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,808.16(-15.30 Points & -0.17%)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(15-04-2011):-

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Monday(18-04-2011) Outlook

All trends are up and last Friday 86.95 Points down was 61.8% correction of one day before 125.80 sharp surge. Intraday patterns of last Friday showed lower level support and bullish pattern also therefore Nifty will not dip and will firstly trade between 5810-5875. As minor correction has been completed and bullish intraday pattern(Falling Wedge) also last Friday therefore firstly fresh consolidations and follow up buying between 5810-5875 will be seen after positive opening next Monday and Most of the time positive market and finally Green Closing expected as well.

For detailed intra day chart analysis of last Friday just click go through following topic:-

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(15-04-2011)

(Detailed analysis will be posted within next 2 days in Weekly Outlook(18-04-2011 to 21-04-2011) and other analytical topics)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(15-04-2011)

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Series of negative news flow led Down move triggered market today,Intra day supports and resistances were shown in Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart at 01:19 PM today with following lines:-

intraday Selling seen between 5850-5875 and minor intraday support also betwen 5808-5826.therefore Nifty will move between both ranges first.

As I told same happened and Nifty traded within mentioned range upto closing today. Both type of following bullish and bearish formation today:-

1- Bearish Harami Candle and selling between 5850-5875
2- Falling Wedge(Bullish) Pattern between 5850-5812 and buying between 5808-5826

As intraday resistance at higher levels and intraday support at lower level therefore firstly market has to open,trade and prepare within today intraday trading range(5800-5875) for decisive moves and that will be done within today trading range in the begining of next week.

Trading within today range will be watched first in the brgining of next week to decide break out direction and will also be tried to post final conclusions in the Blog as done today and also being done daily in Mid-session Outlooks.

(Detailed analysis will be posted within next 3 days in Post-closing Report(15-04-2011) & Monday Outlook,Weekly Outlook(18-04-2011 to 21-04-2011) and other analytical topics)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 15-Apr-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 15-Apr-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Aprket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 15-Apr-2011 3135.81 3389.24 -253.43

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Aprket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 15-Apr-2011 -1373.07 1733.95 -360.87

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-04-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5986
R2 5946
R1 5885
Avg 5845
S1 5784
S2 5744
S3 5683

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5925     Trgt 2
H5 5902     Trgt 1
H4 5879     Long breakout
H3 5851     Go Short
H2 5842
H1 5833
L1 5814
L2 5805
L3 5796     Long
L4 5768     Short Breakout
L5 5745     Trgt 1
L6 5722     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-04-2011

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 6001
R2 5962
R1 5898
Avg 5859
S1 5795
S2 5756
S3 5692

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5937     Trgt 2
H5 5913    Trgt 1
H4 5890    Long breakout
H3 5862     Go Short
H2 5852
H1 5843
L1 5824
L2 5815
L3 5805     Long
L4 5777     Short Breakout
L5 5754    Trgt 1
L6 5730     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-04-2011

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 12187
R2 12091
R1 11931
Avg 11835
S1 11675
S2 11579
S3 11419

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12027     Trgt 2
H5 11969     Trgt 1
H4 11911     Long breakout
H3 11841     Go Short
H2 11817
H1 11794
L1 11747
L2 11724
L3 11700     Long
L4 11630     Short Breakout
L5 11572    Trgt 1
L6 11514     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(18 Apr to 21-04-2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6108
R2 6016
R1 5920
Avg 5828
S1 5732
S2 5640
S3 5544

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy

H6 6014     Trgt 2
H5 5971     Trgt 1
H4 5927     Long breakout
H3 5875     Go Short
H2 5858
H1 5841
L1 5806
L2 5789
L3 5772     Long
L4 5720     Short Breakout
L5 5676     Trgt 1
L6 5633     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(15-04-2011)

3 negative news driven market today with higher levels selling(5850-5875) and lower levels buying(5808-5826) and Bearish Harami Candle today.

News based market today and technical positions are mixed therefore will be better to draw next moves first confirmation from break out of 5800-5875.

Whole sentiment was bullish today morning but I gave again and again  5940 forcful cross over and sustaining above for next move confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(15-04-2011)

Following 3 negative news dragged down Indian markets today:-

1- INFY below expectation results
2- RIL 'highly complacent' on KG-D6 production targets: DGH
3- March WPI inflation at 8.98 pct Vs 8.31 pct in Feb

Negative news flow led Down move triggered today,intraday Selling seen between 5850-5875 and minor intraday support also betwen 5808-5826.therefore Nifty will move between both ranges first.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(at 01:19PM on 13-04-2011):-

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Let today market range(5808-5875) break out and  then form final view.

Post-open Outlook-2(15-04-2011)

It is clear that market had taken INFY results negative and trading 7.00% down and negative news from RIL also today. Nifty traded and closed within resistance range(5870-5940) on 13-04-2011 but depressed and trading below it today. Long positions after market stablising and base formation confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(15-04-2011)

It is seen first time that INFY results are declared after opening of market and below expectations also. Market has taken it negative and trading weak and INFY is 6.5% down. News based market and will be better to draw final conclusion from 3/4 hoours intra day charts foemations and market response on all these developments.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-04-2011)

Technical positions and forthcoming markets possibilities have already been discussed with intra Day and EOD charts in following topics ln last 2 days:-

1- Market is well prepared for Sharp Rally
2- Resistances crossed on 13-04-2011
3- Post-closing Report(13-04-2011) & 15 Apr 2011 Outlook
4- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(13-04-2011)

RIL and INFTEC results have power to trigger decisive direction to Indian markets and INFTEC Audited Results & Final Dividend announcement today at that time when Indian markets are well set to shoot up. Rocket is at launching pad,count down has been started,only sparking is left and that will be done by INFTEC results today.

Whatsoever may be sentiment today morning but today expected first trading range is 5875-5945. Sentiment may be heated today morning and in such mood profit booking possibility can not be ruled out therefore its confirmation is also required today.

Forceful break out and sustaining above 5940 today will be confirmation of fast moves toward 6120. Nifty trading within 5875-5945 will mean final view formation through 3/4 hours intraday charts analysis.

Possibilities have been discussed but as per my view strong rally above 5940 will trigger from today,

Market is well prepared for Sharp Rally

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Sharp surge,whole day higher level consolidation,no intra day selling pattern,1st resistance(5830) cleared and last resistance has also almost crossed on 13-04-2011 therefore no big hurdle in rally now.

Wave-5 is on,all trends are up,minute resistances near 5940,crossing it by force and sustaining above will spark blasing rally in Indian markets toward minimum 6120.

Watch only 5940 for next move Confirmations

Resistances crossed on 13-04-2011

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Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 Days-Intra Day Chart

It is clear from 10 days intra day chart that Nifty crossed stronger resistance range (5870-5910) and closed above at 5911 on 13-04-2011. Minute resistance is near 5940 and it has no strength.

Wave-5 is on,all trends are up and Nifty by force crossing or sustaining above 5940 tomorrow will confirm strong rally toward minimum 6120.

Post-closing Report(13-04-2011) & 15 Apr 2011 Outlook

Indian markets participated Crude $7 sudden fall fuelled global markets rally and  closed with good gains. Main features are as follows:-

1- Long White Bullish candle.
2- All the sectoral Indices positive closing.
3- Crossed 1st resistance(5830)
4- Traded and closed within immediate last resistance of the rally(5870-5940).

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.91
Nifty P/E Ratio(13-04-2011):22.43

Advances & Declines:-

BSE ADVANCES : 1973
BSE DECLINES :  975
NSE ADVANCES : 1068
NSE DECLINES :  356

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5800 CE(28APR2011)- -1428700(-26.60%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28APR2011)- +1885550(+38.58%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(28APR2011)- -1244900(-19.76%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(28APR2011)- +2905550(+107.84%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(28APR2011)- +152150(+2.05%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(28APR2011)- +1241000(+80.58%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,911.50(+125.80 Points & +2.17%)
Sensex- closed at 19,696.86(+434.32 Points & +2.25% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,349.05(+119.10 Points & +1.45%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,823.46(+113.55 Points & +1.30%)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(13-04-2011):-

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15 Apr 2011 Outlook:-

5th Wave is on,Long term and intermediate term trends were up and short term trend turned up after sharp surge on 13-04-2011. Short term correction has been completed and up ward force was so high that market consolidated at higher levels and shoot up. Last resistance range of on going rally is between 5870-5940 and Nifty has cleared this resistance upto 5823 on 13-04-2011.

Correction has been completed in blasting manner and sustaining above 5940 will mean fire works in Indian markets and then Nifty will test minimum 6120 in the coming week/weeks.

Expected that Nifty will sustain above 5940 in the coming week and fresh rally will be seen. For strong rally confirmation  just watch sustaining above 5940 only.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(13-04-2011)

Indian markets participated global markets Crude $7 down rally today. As up move was expected therefore following line was told in Pre-Open Market Outlook(13-04-2011):-

"recovery from lower levels after getting intra day support is possible today"

Although up move was expected after some consolidation but view changed after analysing first half intraday chart and  following lines were told at 09:54AM in Post-open Outlook(13-04-2011):-

"Market showed strength and if Nifty sustains above 5800 today then correction completion will be considered."

As sentiment recovered after sudden Crude price fall therefore sentiment enthused and Indian markets sharply surged after higher levels consolidation and up move was above rising trend line with 5 intraday consolidation patterns. Mentioned all the points were told also in all the 5 outlooks which were posted during trading hours on 13-04-2011.

Intra Day Chart(13-04-2011)

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Intra day consolidation at 5 levels and no distribution pattern on 13-04-2011.