Pre-Open Market Outlook(01-02-2011)

When all the global markets were crashed then following lines were told yesterday. As relevant therefore repeating:-

1- Pre-Open Outlook:-

1- "As other markets were overbought therefore their correction was natural but Indian markets are oversold and will react this news in another manner"
2- "Sentiment completely depressed today morning and sustaining beyond 5460(spot) will decide fate of long term trend"

2- Mid-session Outlook at 12:15 pm:-

1- "Nifty opened and firstly traded below 5460 in deep depressed sentiments today morning and got intraday support at lower levels. All supports have been broken and only Wave-3 trendline support is left which is at 5460"
2- "Nifty opened and firstly traded below 5460 in deep depressed sentiments today morning and got intraday support at lower levels. All supports have been broken and only Wave-3 trendline support is left which is at 5460"
3- "Let more consolidation and support emerge then up move expectations will certainly be considered despite crashing global markets and Egypt internal problems"

Intraday charts of yesterday are showing genuine buying patterns and good support was seen at lower levels as well as good recovery seen before closing near trading high of the day. All this has given strong indication of 'ABC' correction completion but not sufficient and sustaining above 200-day EMA is must for on going uptrend confirmation.

As no distribution pattern in last 4 months EOD chart and 'ABC'correction seen therefore fresh rally possibility is alive after emergence of correction completion signals in last 2 sessions. Detailed analysis has been posted in weekly and 200-day EMA testing is possible in the coming sessions. Sustaining above 200-day EMA is must now for confirmation of mentioned uptrend.

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 01-02-2011

H6 5633 Trgt 2
H5 5608 Trgt 1                                                                                                                         H4 5583 Long breakout
H3 5553 Go Short
H2 5544
H1 5534
L1 5514
L2 5504
L3 5495 Long
L4 5465 Short Breakout
L5 5440 Trgt 1
L6 5415 Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 01-02-11

R3 5659
R2 5593
R1 5549
AVG 5483
S1 5439
S2 5373
S3 5329 


Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 01-02-2011


R3 5747
R2 5684
R1 5610
AVG 5547
S1 5473
S2 5410
S3 5336


Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 01-02-2011


R3 11078
R2 10901
R1 10786
AVG 10609
S1 10494
S2 10317
S3 10202

Trading Levels for the month Feb 2011

R3 5083
R2 5132
R1 5319
AVG 5368 
S1 5555
S2 5604
S3 5791

Mid-session outlook(31-01-2011)

Nifty opened and firstly traded below 5460 in deep depressed sentiments today morning and got intraday support at lower levels. All supports have been broken and only Wave-3 trendline support is left which is at 5460. Nifty trading above it at present and if sustains above then other bulls supporting points will be considered. My view is Bullish but cautious also because Nifty is trading below 200-Day EMA. Let more consolidation and support emerge then up move expectations will certainly be considered despite crashing global markets and Egypt internal problems.

Nifty hovering around 5460 and its sustaining beyond will be watched first for the begining of next moves.

NIFTY-FEB F&O-2ND BUYING OF 27-01-2011-MESSAGE

NIFTY FEB F & O(BOUGHT ON 27-01-2011)-GLOBAL CRASH DUE TO EGYPT INTERNAL PROBLEM.HOLD AND JUST WAIT FOR MY COVERING MESSAGE.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(31-01-2011)

Firstly US markets corrected sharply after Egypt internal unrest and after that all Asian markets are also steep down today morning. As other markets were overbought therefore their correction was natural but Indian markets are oversold and will react this news in another manner. Gravity of Egyption problem and repercussion on global economy is not known yet and all the global markets are reacting with sharp declines since its eruption.

SGX Nifty is also trading more than 90  points down since morning today. Indian markets long term trend is at stake. Sentiment completely depressed today morning and sustaining beyond 5460(spot) will decide fate of long term trend.

Let Indian markets react global crash today then will be decided according to intraday charts patterns.

200-Day EMA broken but Uptrend is Still Intact

Weekly Analysis- 31-01-2011 to 04-02-2011

200-Day EMA broken down last Thursday and Nifty dipped more than 3% from it last Friday as well as 2 sessions closing below it is putting a question mark that whether Indian markets are entering into Bear phase. Most Bullish started month is ending in most Bearish mood. Sentiment was at its peak in the begining and at the bottom in the last and both are extreme points,Financial markets are tend to reverse in extreme(over bought/over sold) situations.

200-Day EMA broken down in last week as well as Wave 3 trendline also tested but Nifty reversed also without breaching it. It means wave 3 and uptrend is still intact and Indian markets have not entered into Bearish Phase yet.

1-Waves Structure Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

ABC correction is continued for the last 4 months and Wave 'C' corrected 100% of Wave 'A' in last week. its calculations are as follows:-

A Wave -6339-5690=corrected 649 Points
C Wave- 6181-6460=corrected 721 Points
C Wave- 6181-5512(closing)=corrected 669 Points

2 Strong support ranges are as follows:-

Strong Support Range-5349-5550
Strong Support Range-5210-5349

2-ABC Correction Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Nifty retraced and moved within 50% and 61.8% retracement levels last Friday and strong supports within this range also therefore dipping below 61.6%(5379) and then breaking down of 5210 will mean neutralising of strong supports and certain entering into bearish markets to test much lower levels. Sustaining above 50%(5562) and then crossing 200-Day EMA(5650) will mean continuation of upmove after completion of correction.

3-Fibonacci Retracement Levels Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions

ABC correction is continued and it is only correction and it also means that after its completion those bullish moves of Wave-3 will be seen about which Indian markets dreamed in the begining of year 2011. Certainly it is worrysome for the Bullishness of Indian markets that 200-Day EMA broken down with force in last week and more than 3% down move from it have been happened as well as Nifty has closed below it 2 days also. If Nifty close below 5650 on next Monday then its breaking down will be almost confirm. Sustaining below 200-Day EMA will certainly be strong indication of begining of Bear markets but Wave-3 trend line has not breached yet and Nifty reversed sharply after testing it last Friday. It means that uptrend is still alive despite breaking down of 200-Day EMA. Wave 'C' of 'ABC' correction has retraced 100% of Wave 'A' last Friday and completion of ABC correction possibility will be considered if Nifty sustaining above last Friday lowest(6460).

Strong supports within 5210-5550 and Nifty traded within it last Friday and Indian markets require complete selling patterns to break it down. Jan 2011 correction is only 'ABC' correction and no distribution pattern therefore it will be understood only correction despite breaking down of 200-Day EMA. I would like add here that no big selling pattrens on intraday charts in the steep fall of 2011. As wave 'c' has also retraced 100% therefore expected that correction will complete near the bottom of last Friday and fresh rally will be seen after completion of 'ABC' correction. No thumb rule for financial markets and if consolidation seen in the begining of week then it will be strong indication of correction completion and then 200-Day EMA crossing upward possibility will be high.

Firstly consolidations and then Up moves expected in the coming week.

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 31-01-2011

H6     5876    Trgt 2 

H5     5798    Trgt 1 

H4     5721     Long breakout 

H3     5628     Go Short 

H2     5597

H1     5567

L1     5505

L2     5474

L3     5443      Long 

L4     5350      Short Breakout 

L5     5273      Trgt 1 

L6     5195      Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 31-01-11 & Next Week Levels

Nifty Spot Levels for 31-01-2011 

                                       R3 5751.33   

R2 5682.67 

R1 5597.33 

AVG 5528.67 

S1 5443.33 

S2 5374.67 

S3 5289.33 

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 31-01-2011 

R3 5747.33 

R2 5684.67 

R1 5610.33 

AVG 5547.67 

S1 5473.33 

S2 5410.67 

S3 5336.33   

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 31-01-2011 

R3 10992.33 

R2 10875.67 

R1 10755.33 

AVG 10638.67 

S1 10518.33 

S2 10401.67 

S3 10281.33  

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (31 Jan to 04 Feb 2011)

R3 6064.67 

R2 5933.33 

R1 5722.67 

AVG 5591.33 

S1 5380.67 

S2 5249.33 

S3 5038.67

ONGC Q3 net surges 131.96% to Rs 7,083.23 cr

Just click on above heading for detailed news

UK Sinha appointed new SEBI chairman

UTI chief UK Sinha has been appointed as the new SEBI chairman, reports CNBC-TV18. According to government sources a formal decision had been taken earlier today.

Sinha, an former IAS officer of Bihar cadre (1976 batch), had worked in Ministry of Finance as the Joint Secretary, in-charge of capital markets, external commercial borrowings, banking and currency and coins.

Here is a verbatim transcript of Siddharth Zarabi’s comments on CNBC-TV18. Also see the accompanying video.

It is a done deal. We have confirmed from senior finance ministry officials that a decision—the formal order which is taken at the highest level has been taken. Mr UK Sinha has been appointed the new Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Board of India with five year tenure. Sinha was in the IAS while his last posting in the ministry was as Joint Secretary of the capital markets division—a crucial division in the finance ministry in the department of economic affairs many years back. He is 59 years old so he has a five-year tenure essentially till the age of 64. He takes over from CB Bhave—very soon CB Bhave’s tenure is coming to an end. So effectively beginning February Sinha will be the new SEBI Chairman.

Clearly, this is sort of a second time lucky event for Mr Sinha, he was earlier in the race for the SEBI chairperson’s job but at that point of time a last minute decision at the level of the government saw CB Bhave get that position. He is currently the chairman and managing director of UTIs asset management company. If you look at Sinha’s track record in terms of being appointed as the securities market regulator he is perhaps one of the most qualified people that are around to be eligible for this post and to be appointed for this.

The run up to this selection saw several people throw in their hats into the ring including a former top banker of the government, senior serving secretary level officer of the government of India but clearly when you look at Mr Sinha’s credentials remember he was the joint secretary for capital markets which is a key posting when it comes to formulation of capital markets policy as far as North Block and the government of India is concerned. He has exposure subsequent to that in Bombay through the position that he currently holds.

He has authored for the government, for the finance ministry some while back sort of reformed report on the way forward for capital market s and clearly given both his personality his style of operations, perhaps one of the most suited, most experienced people to be appointed to this position.

Clearly, while the expectation and the decision at the level of the search and selection committee headed by Cabinet Secretary had been taken in December. The formal orders have now come and decision has been taken. We don’t know whether the formal orders have been physically served on him but clearly from what we learn from the finance ministry it will now be Mr Sinha’s tenure at the SEBI for the next five years.

SOURCE: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/uk-sinha-appointed-new-sebi-chairman_516951.html

NIFTY-FEB F&O-2ND BUYING OF 27-01-2011-MESSAGE

NIFTY FEB F & O(BOUGHT ON 27-01-2011)-HOLD AND COVERING WILL BE DONE IN NEXT WEEK

NIFTY-FEB F&O-2ND BUYING OF 27-01-2011-MESSAGE

NIFTY FEB F & O(BOUGHT ON 27-01-2011)-MARKETS WILL BE VOLATILE TODAY THEREFORE HOLD AND COVER ONLY AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE

Long Term Trend is at Stake

Pre-Open Market Outlook(28-01-2011)

Nifty closed below 200-Day EMA(today at 5651) yesterday and before it Nifty closed below it on 25-05-2010 for one day and recovered next day as well as formed new top of the rally within 2 months. Sustaining below 200-Day EMA will be confirmation of long term trend coverting into downward direction. Although negative factors are high at present but sustaining below it not expected and recovery expected because intermediate term correction Wave-3 is on and it should be complted near about 200-Day EMA. Let market sustain below then bearish market will be considered otherwise outlook will remain bullish for the reasons already been given in last 4/5 sessions Outlooks.


Nifty traded last 25 minutes near 5600 yesterday and first of all 5600 will be watched for next immediate move confirmation. Sustaining beyond will be confirmation of immediate survival/termination of Long term trend. If Nifty sustains above then hopes will remain alive and sustaining below will mean long term trend is confirm down. Although strong support at 5630 broken down by force yesterday but it is matter of long term trend decision therefore 100% confirmation is required.

Let market finalise and sustain then will be explained according to the conclusions from intraday charts.

Long Term Trend is at stake and not down yet.

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 28-01-2011

H6 5742   Trgt 2
H5 5716   Trgt 1
H4 5691   Long breakout
H3 5659   Go Short
H2 5649
H1 5638

L1 5618
L2 5607
L3 5597   Long
L4 5565   Short Breakout
L5 5540  Trgt 1
L6 5514   Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 28-01-2011

Nifty Spot Levels for 28-01-2011 

R3 5819
R2 5772
R1 5688
AVG 5641
S1 5557
S2 5510
S3 5426

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 28-01-2011 

R3 5815
R2 5774
R1 5701
AVG 5660
S1 5587
S2 5546
S3 5473

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 28-01-2011 

R3 11241
R2 11126
R1 10930
AVG 10815
S1 10619
S2 10504
S3 10308

NIFTY-FEB F&O-2ND BUYING OF 27-01-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(FEB FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5594-TGT-5741-CMP-5626

NIFTY(FEB CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(FEB FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5594-TGT-5741 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5626
(NO COVERING TODAY)

NIFTY-FEB F&O-1ST BUYING OF 27-01-2011-COVERING

NIFTY FEB F & O(BOUGHT TODAY)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5671

NIFTY-FEB F&O-1ST BUYING OF 27-01-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(FEB FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5669-TGT-5741-CMP-5686
NIFTY(FEB CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800-NIFTY(FEB FUT)-RATES ARE
FOR SL-5669-TGT-5741 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5686

NIFTY-FEB F&O-2ND BUYING OF 25-01-2011-COVERING

NIFTY FEB F & O(BOUGHT ON 25-01-2011)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5723(WE MAY BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST BOOK PROFIT)