Range Bound Market & Confirmations are Must

Weekly Analysis-25 OCT to 29 OCT 2010


Last week Candle is Bullish Hammer after lower levels buying while before last week candle was Shooting Star/Gravestone Doji Bearish after higher levels selling.

Supports and Resistances of last 16 sessions are as follows:-

1- Strong support within 5985-6030
2- 1st Resistance Range is- 6110-6145
2- 2nd Resistance Range is- 6160-6180
4- 3rd and Last Resistance Range is- 6220-6245

1- Support & Resistanced Chart:-

Market is trapped within strong supports at lower levels and strong resistances at higher levels and has entered into Range bound mode within 5932-6284 and will prepare for next moves within this range. 6040-6145 is 1st trading range of next week.Supports within range are 6040-6060 and below it strong support range is 5932-6030. Resistance range within this range is 6100-6140 but above is resistances are not strong and only last resistance range 6220-6245 is little stronger.

Correction started after Rising Wedge formations and Coming week will decide that the correction has finished after Bullish Hammer formation last week or not. On going month is Quarterly Results month and it is the trend that achual results season starts from INFY results and finish after RIL results. This has to be kept in mind that this week is derivatives expiery week and RIL results will be declared on 30 OCT 2010(Saturday),market is indecisive mode and will prepare whole week within 5932-6245 for real moves in next month.

Bearish Rising Wedge and Bullish Flag  Formations in last 21 sessions:- EOD chart has clearly shown Bearish Rising Wedge and last 6 sessions are showing Bullish Flag  Formations.Rising Wedge implications has been written in last week and I am showing with proofs Bullish Flag implications from my following topic in my forums and Blog:-


NIFTY NEXT TARGET IS 6000
Weekly Analysis-05 Jul to 09 Jul 2010


When previous closing was at 5237 then I told following lines in this topic which name was "NIFTY NEXT TARGET IS 6000":-


1- Nifty will shoot up like bullet after crossing 5450 because no resistance upto 6000(In Technical View-3)
2- A Flag(Bullish) follows a steep nearly vertical rise( In Flag Formations in Daily Chart:-)


All very well remember sharp rise within 5500-6000 in last month and my projections for sharp surge and Bullish Flag can also verified in any of my forum and Blog.


2- Rising Wedge and Flag  Formations Chart:-

Conclusions:- Coming week will first trade within 6040-6145 and will give first indication that correction has been completed in last week or not. It is obvious that crossing 5140 will mean correction complete and very much chances of testing last resistance range(6220-6245). Breaking of 6045 will mean testing possibility of 5932 but supports below 6030 are strong therefore complete selling formations are required to test 5932.

Firstly from intraday charts and after ward from forceful break out of 5932-5245 will give next moves confirmations. Markets takes its complete time within ranges for preparing of next moves and let it complete its process then final view will be formed accordingly. In the end 2 cautions for range bound moves:-

1- Sentiments remains at peak at the top or at the bottom of range and keep in mind also that market may reverse also from here therefore trade with patience at those points.

2- Forceful break out is must for range break out confirmations.

Last 10 days Supports & Resistances

Supports and Resistances:-

1- Strong support within 5985-6030
2- 1st Resistance Range is- 6110-6145
2- 2nd Resistance Range is- 6160-6180
4- 3rd and Last Resistance Range is- 6220-6245

MARKET RANGE BOUND

Pre-Open Market Outlook(22-10-2010)

I told following lines yesterday.As relevant therefore repeating today:-

"next trend preperations range will be 6030-6110"

Nifty traded within mentioned range after break out and retraced from 6113.5 to 6092 in last 20 minutes after suggesting last 2 hours selling patterns within 6080-6113 yesterday. Resistance ranges are as follows:-

1- 6080-6113(Minor resistance range)
2- 6110-6120(Minor resistance range)
3- 6110-6160(Resistance)
4- 6220-6245(Last Resistance)

Support are as follows:-

1- 5985-6030
2- 5932-5985

Yesterday upmove started after improved inflation data release. On going month is quarterly results month therefore any sharp surge like yesterday is very much possible after any good news or in expectation of a good news. Resistances at higher levels are stronger and consolidation is required after rise. Although good selling at higher levels but supports within 5932-6030 are also strong and complete disfribution patterns are required to break supports also.

All trends are up,Wave 3 is on and its minimum target is 6359 as well as Correction has been started from 6284 and 6359 will cross after completion of correction. As Good supports aT lower levels and Good resistance are AT higher levels therefore complete distribution patterns are required to cross 5932 and complete consolidation required to cross 6284.

Correction is on and only it has to be decided that:-

1- Correction will be deeper below 5932 after fresh selling or
2- correction will complete within range bound moves(5985-6284) after fresh consolidations.

Today follow up selling or buying will give 1st indication of any of above possibility.

Sentiment may be heated today and next resistance range is 6110-6160 and if Nifty sustains above 6160 after fresh consolidation today then it will be strong indication of testing next resistance range. If Nifty does not sustain above 6160 and dip below 6080 after profit booking then levels near 6030 will be expected.

Market is not trending and in Range bound mode within supports and resistances therefore next moves will be decided according to immediate intraday moves and intraday charts formations and will be posted accordingly.

Mid-Session Outlook(21-10-2010)

I was telling about the possibility of that up move since yesterday opening which is being seen now. Sharp rally above 6030 and its crossing 6100/6120  will mean levels near 6160/6200.

Post-Open Outlook(21-10-2010)

Opening Positive and next move preperation range for today is 5980-6030. Mentioned range break out implications has been defined in Pre-Open Outlook. Let market prepare and  finally next moves as well as today closing should be decided according to mentioned range break out.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(21-10-2010)

Long term and intermediate term trends are up and short term trend is down below 6057. Minor consolidation was seen last Monday within 5985-6000 and Nifty dipped and closed below 5985 yesterday after whole day trading between 5990-6030. Yesterday intraday patterns are suggesting consolidation and move below 6000 was without force and it is a part of consolidations also therefore:-

1- sustaining below 5985 is must for down move confirmations:- 5932-6000 is support range and if Nifty sustains below 5985 then next support is 5932 and sustaining below it will mean intermediate term trend turning down.

2- Sustaining above 6030 will be confirmations of yesterday consolidations:- It will mean range bound Indian markets within 6030-6110 because:-

1- Support within 5932-6030
2- Resistance within 6110-6245

In this situation next trend preperations range will be 6030-6110 and firstly from intraday charts within mentioned range will decide its break out direction and secondly following levels will decide next trend:-

1- Firstly 6160 then 6245 crossing will cofirm new top of the rally formation.
2- Firstly 5985 then 5932 srossing will confirm intermedate term trend turning down.

My view was bearish but My view changed immediately after watching yesterday opening and I posted my changed views and intraday charts consolidation view in all my Forums and Blog well in advance yesterday. I clearly mean to say that I am not telling for up moves after watching strong US markets but I told it during trading hours yesterday.

Positive opening to positive closing market expeccted today.

Nifty Spot- Trading Levels(21-10-2010)

6100- 3rd Resistance
6069- 2nd Resistance and sustaining above 6030 will mean its testing possibility.
6025- 1st Resistance and higher level of today expected 1st range
5992- 1st Support and lower level of today expected 1st range
5950- 2nd Support and testing not expected today
5925- 3rd Support

Mid-Session Outlook-2(20-10-2010)

Nifty sustaining above 5985 since morning and its holding will mean double bottom formations and that stands for stronger support. I would like add here that today intraday charts are  showing consolidation formations also.


Until Nifty does not dip below 5985 till then view will not be bearish.

Mid-Session Outlook(20-10-2010)

Short term is already down and intermediate term will be down below 5932. Next support range is 5885-6000 and Nifty is trading above it since opening today despite weaker global cues. It will be safer to watch sustainability beyond mentioned support range for next trend confirmations.

Let market prepare then final conclusion will be drawn according to intraday charts formations.

Post-Open Outlook(20-10-2010)

Opening not weak.Understanding its meaning and will post message according to conclusions.

NIFTY-OCT F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 19-10-2010-COVERING

NIFTY OCT F & O(SHORTED ON 19-10-2010)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6035

NIFTY-OCT F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 19-10-2010-MESSAGE

NIFTY OCT F & O(SHORTED ON 19-10-2010)-GLOBAL MARKETS WEAK TODAY THEREFORE HOLD AND JUST WAIT FOR MY COVERING MESSAGE

Pre-open outlook(20-10-2010)

I am telling for the last 4 days for those down moves which were seen yesterday and will be seen after gap down opening today, I am not telling for gap down opening after watching down US markets but:-

1- I told following lines for this happening in last Sunday posted weekly Analysis:-

"Most of the global markets are overbought but intraday patterns not started to show complete selling patterns and selling development possibilities lies in the middle of week"

2- I was confirm yesterday that gap down opening will be seen today therefore:-

"I posted Nifty Futures(sell) & Put(buying) call in last 10 minutes in my this Blog"

Stock markets profits generates from understanding a move well in advance.

That weakness will be seen today for which I am continuously telling for the last 4 days and nothing new to say today.

Nifty Spot- Trading Levels(20-10-2010)

6054- 2nd Resistance and not expected to test today
5980- 1st Resistance and higher level of today expected 1st range 
5950- 1st Support and lower level of today expected 1st range 
5932- 2nd (Crucial) support and will decide intermediate term trend.
5865- 3rd Support 

Tomorrow outlook,Post-Closing Report(19-10-2010) & Proofs of my 100% accurate predictions

I posted my bearish outlook in following words Pre-Open Outlook today:-

1- Although Indian markets recovered form lower levels yesterday but until above mentioned 1st resistance range(6110-6160) will not cross till then any up move or correction completion will not be considered

2- Correction started after good selling at higher levels and expected that fresh selling will be seen in couple of sessions within or below mentioned 1st resistance range.

I posted my bearish outlook in following words Mid-session outlook in my Blog today:-

1- I have already defined my bearish views in my previous 4 days outlooks and that is not changed despite yesterday sharp surge

2- Today range break out will decide follow up buying or selling and that will give first indication of next big  moves.

As I told 100% same happened and Indian markets could not sustain at higher levels and closed in Red after slipping from higher levels.

Sensex closed 185.76  points down today.
-Nifty closed 48.65 points down today.

Tomorrow outlook:- For tomorrow I have already told in in following words in today Pre-open outlook and that will happen:-

"finally Indian markets will move below yesterday lows"

NIFTY-OCT F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 19-10-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(OCT FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6095-TGT-5995-CMP-6062

NIFTY(OCT PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-6000,6100,6200-NIFTY(OCT FUT)-RATES ARE FOR- FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6062

Mid-Session Outlook(19-10-2010)

Flat narrow range market within 6060-6095 today.Market takes its own complete time to prepare for a move within narrow rahge moves. Although got little support at 6060 but resistance is also seen at 6095. I have already defined my bearish views in my previous 4 days outlooks and that is not changed despite yesterday sharp surge and its reasons have already been explained in today Pre-Open Outlook.

Today range break out will decide follow up buying or selling and that will give first indication of next big  moves.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(19-10-2010)

दलितों और OBC को आरक्षण केवल तभी
तक मिल रहा है जब तक हिन्दू 
बहुसंख्यक है और सत्ता में है।
मुसलमानों के बहुसंख्यक होते ही या 
सत्ता में आते ही आरक्षण की सुविधा तो 
छोड़ ही दो दलितों तुम्हारा हिंदुस्तान में 
जिंदा रहना भी मुश्किल हो जायेगा

Nifty Spot- Trading Levels(19-10-2010)

6265- 3D Resistance and not expected to cross
6190- 2nd Resistance and not expected to test
6140- 1st Resistance and higher level of today expected 1st range 
6058- 1st Support and lower level of today expected 1st range 
6000- 2nd Support and not expected to test
5926- 3rd Support

Pre-Open Market Outlook(18-10-2010)

हिंदुस्तान को इस्लामिक देश बनाने की साजिश 

 पाकिस्तान और चीन हिंदुस्तान को इस्लामिक देश बनाने के लिए पानी की तरह पैसा बहा रहे हैं और उसके ख़रीदे हुए दलाल हिन्दुओं के सबसे रक्षक मोदी जी,योगी जी,बीजेपी और आरएसएस का सिर्फ इसीलिए ही विरोध करते हैं क्योंकि इनकी मजबूती के कारण ही हिन्दुओं के दुश्मनो और हिंदुस्तान के गद्दारों का हिंदुस्तान को इस्लामिक देश बनाने का सपना पूरा नहीं हो पा रहा हैं। 
अगर तू मुसलमान नहीं है और मोदी जी,योगी जी,बीजेपी और आरएसएस के साथ भी नहीं है और उनका विरोध भी करता है तो समझ ले कि तू उन मुसलमानो को ही मजबूत कर रहा है जो तुझे काफिर मानते हैं और हिन्दुस्तान से सभी काफिरों को मार,काट,बलात्कार कर हिंदुस्तान को इस्लामिक देश बनाने की दिन रात साजिश कर रहे हैं।

Nifty Spot- Trading Levels(18-10-2010)

दावा है मेरा कि कोई भी सच्चा,
समझदार,ईमानदार और देशभक्त हिन्दू
 मोदी जी,योगी जी,बीजेपी और आरएसएस 
का विरोध कर ही नहीं सकता क्योंकि 
इनके विरोध का सीधा अर्थ है  कि उन 
देशद्रोहियों,गद्दारों,पाकिस्तान/चीन प्रेमियों 
को मजबूत बनाना और हिन्दुओं के उन 
दुश्मनो की सहायता करना जो हिन्दुओं को 
"जात पात में बाँट कर" और हिन्दुओं को 
"कमजोर करके" हिंदुस्तान को इस्लामिक देश बनाने का दिन रात,लगातार 
और देशद्रोहियों से बहुत सारा धन लेकर 
पिछले 30 सालों से षड़यंत्र कर रहे हैं।