Pull back rally continuation towards Next Resistances

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 22 to Jun 26,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
12- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8,250.80 on 19-06-2015 

Waves structure of on going 5 Waves correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
7- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8,250.80 on 19-06-2015 
8- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8196) broken out on 19-06-2015

Last 12 sessions intraday charts Analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jun 04 to Jun 19,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 12 Sessions intraday charts

1- 11 Sessions actual trading between 7941-8191 with lower levels consolidations.
2- Gap up opening on 19-06-2015
3- 12 Sessions actual trading between 7941-8250 

Conclusions from 12 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

11 Sessions actual trading between 7941-8191 with lower levels good consolidations and after that this range was broken out forcefully on 19-06-2015 as well as closed with sufficient gains therefore emergence of fresh and strong rally possibilities above 11 Sessions highest(8191) 

Intra Day Chart Analysis(19-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8196-8214 
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Good intraday correction
5- Whole day actual trading between 8196-8251

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly gap up opening and after that good consolidation as well as Down moves were also seen in Bullish Falling Channel at higher levels in first 4 hours therefore up moves started from lower levels of the day. As up moves in Bearish Rising Channel were also seen up to higher levels of the day therefore sharp intraday correction was seen and Nifty has prepared for fresh up moves above the highest(8251) of the day.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8196) broken out on 19-06-2015 and its turning up confirmation is required through sustaining above 8196

5 Waves correction started from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and its 5th wave recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015,after that Pull Back Rally begun which formed recent top at 8250.80 on 19-06-2015. As 11 Sessions trading range(7941-8191) broken out forcefully and Nifty traded whole day above it as well as Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8196) therefore emergence of Long Term Trend turning up indications. 

Wave-1 started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 and its 5th wave completed on 04-03-2015 at 9119.20 and 5 Waves correction begun as well as its 5th Wave correction completion indications after 11 sessions range and 200 Day EMA break out in previous week. Once sustaining above 200 Day EMA(today at 8196) will mean Long Term Trend turning up confirmations and resultant strong rally possibility towards following next resistances:- 

1- Resistances between 8355-8400
2- Resistances between 8440-8486(strong)

As Intermediate Term Trend will be up above 8505 therefore once sustaining above 2nd resistance will mean sustaining above 8505 confirmations also and then rally above all time highest(9119.20) will be seen after all trends turning up and 5 waves correction completion confirmations.

Expected that on going Pull back rally will remain continued towards above mentioned 2nd resistance(8440) in next week and we are seeing possibility of rally above 8505 also.

8195 will be Next Big Trend Decider

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(19-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 55 Points sharp jump towards 8146 in first 15 minutes.
2- Whole day up moves in Rising Channel with some selling patterns but sufficient intraday corrections also within channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 8102-8186

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Rally above today highest(8136.85) after follow up consolidations":-

finally rally above today highest(8,136.85) is still expected in the coming sessions

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty crossed 8,136.85 in first 9 minutes as well as sharply jumped 55 points towards 8146 within first 15 minutes

More than 6 hours continuous up moves in Rising Channel with some selling patterns but sufficient intraday corrections also within channel therefore one sided patterns not formations and valid break out of this channel will decide following next trend:-

1- Upper rising line break out will mean testing of Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8195) and once sustaining above 8195 will mean Long Term Trend turning up confirmation as well as fresh rally after strong signal of on going correction completion.
2- Lower rising line break down will mean down moves towards the bottom(7940.30) of on going correction after on going Pull Back Rally termination.

At present Pull Back Rally continuation with today highest at 9186 and next resistance is at 8192 as well as Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is just above it at 8195. Once sustaining above 8195 will mean Long Term Trend turning up confirmation and resultant strong rally possibility towards next resistances at 8360. If Nifty fails to sustain above 8192 and after that lower line of today Rising Channel broken down also then same Bearish moves will be seen which have already been updated above.

As Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(8195) will decide next Big moves therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

Rally above today highest(8136.85) after follow up consolidations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8048-8077
2- Selling between 8106-8136
3- Whole day actual trading between 8048-8136

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

It was expected that Nifty will prepare today for post FOMC decisive moves between and near about 7953-8061 and forceful moves beyond 7941-8057 will be seen after FOMC announcements on 18th June but good up moves were seen after first 4 hours lower levels consolidation today. 

As more than 24 hours trading between 7941-8057 in last 4 sessions with lower levels good consolidation therefore following conclusive moves were updated yesterday in "17th June will be Post FOMC forceful Moves preparation Day":-

if selling does not develop tomorrow then strong rally will begin on the 18th June despite whatsoever announcements from FOMC on 17th night.

Rally was expected on 18th June after FOMC but it was seen today and finally technical positions of last 5 sessions have developed as follows:-

1- Consolidation between 7941-8006 from 11-06-2015 to 16-06-2015
2- Consolidation between 8048-8077 on 17-06-2015
3- Selling between 8106-8136 on 17-06-2015

As good consolidation at lower levels in last 5 sessions and selling also at higher levels today therefore consolidation is firstly required between and near about today trading range(8048-8136) but finally rally above today highest(8,136.85) is still expected in the coming sessions despite following negative developments:-

1- FII selling by 940.91 Cr in Indian markets today 
2- All European markets closing in Red today.
3- US markets trading in negative zone at this moment.

17th June will be Post FOMC forceful Moves preparation Day 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(17-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 7953-7996(Immediate Supports)
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 7953-8061

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Cautiously Bullish view requires follow up consolidation within 7941-8057":-

As good consolidation between 7941-8057 in last 3 sessions therefore moves above 8057 are expected but view is cautious because Bearish Indian markets and fresh up moves confirmation will be after follow up consolidation within 7941-8057 tomorrow. 

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty moved above 8057 and intraday highest formation at 8061.85 today. 

Although more than 4 hours lower levels consolidation today but last hours up moves were in  Bearish Rising Channel therefore follow up consolidation and sustaining above 8057 is must for next decisive up moves.

As FOMC meet on 16th and 17th June therefore decisive moves are expected after its announcements on 18th June and Nifty will prepare for post FOMC decisive moves between and near about 7953-8061 tomorrow.

More than 24 hours trading between 7941-8057 in last 4 sessions with lower levels good consolidation and if selling does not develop tomorrow then strong rally will begin on the 18th June despite whatsoever announcements from FOMC on 17th night.

It should also be kept in mind that forceful moves beyond 7941-8057 may be seen on 18th June and market will prepare for those moves tomorrow. Let market prepare for post FOMC trend and decisive moves then will be updated from intraday charts patterns formations in the same manner as being done for the last more than 5 years. 

Cautiously Bullish view requires follow up consolidation within 7941-8057

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 90 Points bounce in first 30 minutes
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Consolidation between 7980-8006(Immediate Supports)
4- Whole day actual trading between 7945-8057

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following line was told today at 10:36 AM in "Next Immediate Decisive moves will be decided by 7941-8051":-

Next resistances are between 8038-8051 and once valid break out of this range will mean strong possibility of more than 1% up moves and next immediate decisive moves will be decided by 7941-8051

As resistances between 8038-8051 therefore Nifty could not sustain above it and slipped below 8038 after intraday highest formation at 8057.70.

Although Nifty slipped 50 points in last hours from intraday higher levels but as such selling patterns were not seen and on the other hand consolidation patterns were also seen therefore emergence of up moves expectations in the coming sessions. 

As all trends are down and Nifty is in the grip of Bears therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for sustaining above today highest and sharp up moves will be seen above 8188.

More than 17 hours trading between 7941-8057 in last 3 sessions therefore firstly valid break out of this range should be watched in the coming sessions for next decisive moves:-

1- Above 8057 will mean up moves towards 8188.
2- Below 7941 will mean Correction Continuation towards 7642.30.

As good consolidation between 7941-8057 in last 3 sessions therefore moves above 8057 are expected but view is cautious because Bearish Indian markets and fresh up moves confirmation will be after follow up consolidation within 7941-8057 tomorrow. 

Next Immediate Decisive moves will be decided by 7941-8051

Post-open Outlook(15-06-2015)

Nifty- First 45 Minutes Intra Day Chart(15-Jun-2015)

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Although Dow Jones closed 140 points down and all the European markets also closed 0.90% to 1.40% down last Friday but we told following line on 13-06-2015 in "Firstly Bounce Back & finally Correction Continuation towards 7642.30" 

1- finally up moves are expected in the beginning of next week despite all European and US markets more than .62% down closing last Friday
2- As Short Term Oscillators are oversold and intraday consolidation patterns formations also on 12-06-2015 therefore a bounce back will be considered in the beginning of next week
3- Firstly bounce back

As was told on 13-06-2015 same happened today and Nifty bounced 90 points from lower levels and traded 51 points up in first 30 minutes today despite all the Asian markets are trading down from .50% to 1.50% today.

Next resistances are between 8038-8051 and once valid break out of this range will mean strong possibility of more than 1% up moves and next immediate decisive moves will be decided by 7941-8051.

Firstly Bounce Back & finally Correction Continuation towards 7642.30

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 15 to Jun 19,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015

Waves structure of on going 5 Waves correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-1 corrected 850.05 points
4- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
5- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
6- Wave-3 corrected 847.25 points
7- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
8- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015
9- Wave-3 has corrected 549.25 points
10- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8200)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support and Consolidation between 7941-7967(Immediate Supports)
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 7941-7995

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing with minor gains on 12-06-2015 but whole day good consolidation and no selling patterns formations as well as Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore finally up moves are expected in the beginning of next week despite all European and US markets more than .62% down closing last Friday.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are down and Indian markets are in the firm grip of Bears as well as confirmations of 5 Waves correction in previous weeks therefore correction continuation will be considered and until complete consolidation will not happen on EOD charts till then correction completion will not be expected.

Wave-1 and Wave-3 have corrected almost 850 points and almost as such 850 points correction will be considered for on going Wave-5 also but on going Wave-5 will complete above 7642.30 because as per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5". Now corrective Wave-5 is on and it should not loose more points than Wave-3 lost.

Wave-3 lost=847.25 points(8844.40-7997.15)

It means on going corrective Wave-5 will loose less than 847.25 points which started from(8489.55). Therefore maximum target of on going Wave-5 will be:-

8489.55-847.25=7642.30

Wave-1 started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 and its 5th wave completed on 04-03-2015 at 9119.20 and 5 Waves correction begun,now its corrective Wave-5 is on with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015. As correction started on 04-03-2015 after 5 waves completion therefore Nifty will correct whole that move which started from 5118.85 and completed 9119.20 acoording to following Fibonacci retracement levels:-

1- 13.0%-8,598(Corrected)
2- 23.6%-8,174(Corrected)
3- 27.0%-8,038(Corrected)
4- 38.2%-7,590(Crucial)
5- 50.0%-7,118(Crucial)
6- 61.8%-6,646(Crucial)
7- 70.0%-6,290
8- 76.4%-6,062
8- 78.6%-5,974 
10-88.6%-5,574 

27.0% retracement has been completed and next crucial 38.2% retracement levels is at 7,590 which is below on going Wave-5 maximum target(7642.30). Expected that on going corrective Wave-5 will completed above 7642.30 but correction completion will be considered only after sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8200) because its breaking down confirmation after last 8 sessions closing below it.

As Short Term Oscillators are oversold and intraday consolidation patterns formations also on 12-06-2015 therefore a bounce back will be considered in the beginning of next week. If follow up consolidation develops on next Monday then a Pull Back rally will be seen but until complete consolidation will not happen on EOD charts till then correction will not complete.

Firstly bounce back & finally correction continuation towards 7642.30 is expected in next week

Maximum target of on going correction at 7642.30

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(12-06-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and correction beginning
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7958.25 on 11-06-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and firstly 'ABC'correction was considered but once slipping below Wave-C bottom(7997.15) mean 5 waves correction and now  Wave-5 correction continuation. 

As per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now corrective Wave-5 is on and it should not loose more points than Wave-3 lost.

Wave-3 lost=847.25 points(8844.40-7997.15)

It means on going corrective Wave-5 will loose less than 847.25 points which started from(8489.55). Therefore maximum target of on going Wave-5 will be:-
8489.55-847.25=7642.30

It means that on going Wave-5 will complete above 7642.30

First Indication of Next Big Moves 
from 8085-8185

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(11-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Sharp 65 points up in first 4 minutes
2- Mixed Patterns between 8085-8115 in 5 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 8030-8150

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Finally Pull back rally above 8057":-

1- Pull back rally is expected tomorrow.
2- fast up moves will be seen after valid break out above today highest(8057)
3- some resistances are lying between 8135-8185
4- strong rally will be considered after follow up consolidation and sustaining above 8185. 

As was told 100% same happened and that fast Pull back rally was seen today which moved up 65 points sharply in first 4 minutes only. Resistances were told between 8135-8185 and Nifty could not sustain within this range as well as slipped below it after intraday highest formation at 8152.25.

As 5 hours mixed Patterns formations between 8085-8115 and resistances are lying just above it between 8135-8185 therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for fresh strong rally and sustaining above 8185.  

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves between 8085-8185 and finally sustaining beyond this range will decide following next trend:-

1- Sustaining above 8185 will mean fast up moves possibility towards next resistance range(8427-8485)
2- Sustaining below 8085 will mean fast down moves possibility towards next support range(8008-8025)

37 sessions trading between 7997-8505 and finally break out of this range will decide next big moves but first indication of those big moves can be drawn from valid break out of 8085-8185 and must be watched in the coming sessions. 

Finally Pull back rally above 8057

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(10-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8045-8057
2- Good consolidation also between 8008-8025 
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8006-8057

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Whole day 51 points sideways trading with both higher levels selling and lower levels good consolidation also therefore valid break out of today trading range should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations. 

Following lines were told on 03-06-2015 in "Long Term Trend at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast":-

1- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
2- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
3- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
4- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
5- Wave-5 continuation after slipping below 7997

Slipping below 7997 will be corrective Wave-5 confirmation which will be open the doors of deeper 5% fast correction.

As good consolidation between 8057-8135 from 03-06-2015 to 05-06-2015 therefore fast up moves will be seen after valid break out above today highest(8057) but some resistances are lying between 8135-8185 and strong rally will be considered after follow up consolidation and sustaining above 8185. 

As Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel pattern formations seen 3 times and lower levels good consolidation also therefore expected that finally Nifty will move above today highest(8057) and Pull back rally is expected tomorrow.

Mid-session Outlook(09-06-2015)

Side ways quiet first 4 hours trading between 8008-8057 with both higher levels selling between 8045-8057 and lower levels good consolidation also between 8008-8025 therefore valid break out of today first 4 hours trading range should be firstly watched now and must be kept in mind that once slipping below 7997 will mean high possibility of sharp down. 

As valid break out of today trading range will open the gates of next big moves therefore should be firstly watched.

As busy therefore today Outlook is not being updated but Mid-session Outlook will be posted during trading hours today.

33 Sessions Sideways Nifty requires break out for Next Big Moves

Intra Day Charts Analysis & Market Outlook

(08-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jun 03 to Jun 05,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8168-8190 on 03-06-2015
2- Consolidation between 8095-8135 on 03-06-2015
3- Consolidation between 8105-8152 on 04-06-2015
4- Consolidation between 8057-8084 on 04-06-2015
5- Consolidation between 8119-8140 on 04-06-2015
6- Consolidation between 8104-8134 on 05-06-2015
7- Mixed Patterns between 8132-8190 on 05-06-2015
8- Consolidation between 8109-8122 on 05-06-2015
9- 3 Sessions most time trading between 8057-8190 

Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

3 Sessions most time trading between 8057-8190 with good consolidation within this range but mixed Patterns formations were also seen within this range at higher levels therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for break out and sustaining above last 3 sessions range highest(8190)

Following lines were told on 03-06-2015 in "Long Term Trend at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast"

As Nifty traded last 31 sessions between 7997-8505 and hover around 14 days Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will decide the fate of Long Term Trend also and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. 

Nifty is not trending but sideways between 7997-8505 for the last 33 sessions and break out of this range range will decide next big moves of Nifty. As good consolidation in last 3 sessions near the lower levels of this range between 8057-8190 therefore emergence of some up moves expectations within 33 sessions range.  

Pull Back Rally Possibility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(05-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8105-8152
2- Consolidation between 8057-8084
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8119-8140
4- Whole day actual trading between 8057-8152

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although flat closing in a volatile day today but whole day good consolidation and Bullish Hammer candlestick formation therefore Pull Back rally is expected in the coming sessions and once sustaining above today trading highest(8152) will mean today consolidation levels turning into strong supports.

As all the European markets are trading moe than 1% down and Dow Futures is also now 110 points down therefore sentimental weakness may be seen tomorrow morning if such weakness reflects in Asian markets also and in that situation Nifty may firstly trade within today trading range. As whole day good consolidation Patterns formations today therefore until fresh selling will not develop till then down moves below today lowest will not be considered.  

Long Term Trend at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(03-06-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (02-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
2- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- 31 sessions between 7997-8505
6- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Union Minister for Earth Sciences Harsh Vardhan said on monsoon yesterday that India Meteorological Department (IMD) had downgraded its earlier April prediction from 93 per cent to 88 per cent this month.

As soon as above statement came out Indian markets started to move down and Nifty slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) today,finally sustaining it beyond will decide next trend will decide next trend because:-

Nifty tested and hovered around 200 Day EMA 11 sessions from 28-04-2015 to 14-05-2015 and finally sustained above it last 13 sessions but again moved below it today.

As market came under firm grip of Bears after negative news of Weaker monsoon and final impact of this news on Indian markets have to be decided yet because as per our view 12 per cent less monsoon will not create as such havoc and drought like situation. 

As Nifty traded last 31 sessions between 7997-8505 and hover around 14 days Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will decide the fate of Long Term Trend also and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. 

Slipping below 7997 will mean 5 Waves correction confirmation and in that situation Waves structure of on going correction will be as follows:-

1- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
2- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
3- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
4- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
5- Wave-5 continuation after slipping below 7997

Certainly Long Term Trend is at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast and slipping below 7997 will be Wave-5 as well as deeper correction.

Pull Back Rally within Sideways Market between 8201-8489

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(03-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Volatility after 25 BPS rates cut by RBI.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel after RBI rates cut.
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last more than 3 hours.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8227-8445

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although we were expecting Rally above 8467/8489 after Repo Rates cut by 50 BPS to 100 BPS today but well prepared also for down moves if rate are cut by 25 BPS therefore we told following line yesterday;-

1- 25 BPS rate cut is confirm and discounted in present rates also therefore if it is announced then market will fall.

Firstly volatility after 25 BPS rate cut and after that Huge fall was seen today but all the down moves were seen in Bullish Falling Channel therefore expected that Pull Back Rally will be seen in the coming sessions.

Weekly Analysis topic with Crucial levels were updated on 23-05-2015 in "Firstly Short Term Correction but Sideways Trading between 8201-8489 in Next Week":-

Nifty traded  between 8201-8489 in last 7 sessions with lower levels good supports therefore Nifty could not slip below 8201 despite huge fall today.

As almost 4 hours today down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore Pull Back rally is expected tomorrow and still Nifty will be understood sideways Trading between 8201-8489 and next trend will be decided through sustaining beyond 8201-8489. 

Rally above 8467/8489 after Repo Rates cut by 50 BPS to 100 BPS tomorrow

 Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(02-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Jun-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8440-8467(Immediate Resistances)
2- Last trading rate at the trading lowest of the day
3- Last 2 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8422-8467

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 01:16 PM on 01-06-2015 in "Mid-session Outlook(01-06-2015)":-

1- Although Nifty is trading near the higher levels the day at this moment.
2- but today intraday charts are showing selling patterns also.
3- view is cautious before RBI Credit Policy.

When Nifty was trading near the higher levels the day then we told for selling and Nifty closed near the lowest trading levels of the day today.

We told following lines also on 30-05-2015 in "Pull Back Rally continuation Possibility towards 8762.55":-

1- selling possibility can not be ruled out on the back of all around accepted RBI Rates cut on 2nd June
2- follow up consolidation is must because 5 hours mixed Patterns formations on 29-05-2015.

Selling possibility was told and it was seen between 8440-8467 today and it will be immediate resistance of Nifty. Crucial levels were updated in following Weekly Analysis topic on on 23-05-2015 in "Firstly Short Term Correction but Sideways Trading between 8201-8489 in Next Week":-

Nifty traded within above mentioned range between 8271-8467 in last 6 sessions with lower levels good supports and higher levels selling therefore technically Nifty has to trade and prepare yet for next decisive moves beyond 8201-8489.

As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow and our expectations with market reactions will be as follows:-

1- 25 BPS rate cut is confirm and discounted in present rates also therefore if it is announced then market will fall.
2- 50 BPS rate cut is possible and if it is announced then market will shoot up but before that Nifty has to consolidate between 8370-8467 and high volatility may also be seen before Credit Policy.
3- 75 BPS and above rates cut can not be ruled out because Governor Rajan is known for surprises also. If it happens the Nifty will shoot up above 8467/8489 and will consolidate at higher levels but before than Nifty has to consolidate between 8370-8467 and high volatility may also be seen before Credit Policy.

As now Indian Economy Growth ball is in the court of RBI and expected that RBI Governor will fulfill his responsibility after watching WPI,CPI,IIP and GDP figures. We are expecting rates cut by RBI between 50 BPS to 100 BPS tomorrow as well as rally above 8467/8489 because today last 2 hours Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel also. A strict caution is that market may be highly volatile before Credit Policy therefore trade carefully.

Mid-session Outlook(01-06-2015)

Although Nifty is trading near the higher levels the day at this moment but today intraday charts are showing selling patterns also therefore view is cautious before RBI Credit Policy. 

Pull Back Rally continuation Possibility towards 8762.55 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 01 to Jun 05,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-May-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)('ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Pull Back rally continuation after Wave-'C' completion 

Waves structure of Wave-5

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-May-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Nifty hovered around 11 sessions Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8209) and finally sustained above it. 
11- 15 sessions trading between 7997-8365 from 24-04-2015 to 15-05-2015 and this range broken out on 18-05-2015.
12- Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders formations in 15 sessions with its Neckline at 8365 which was broken out on 18-05-2015.
13- 15 sessions trading range top and Neckline(8365) of Inverted Head and Shoulders was broken down 2 times in previous week but finally sharply moved up above 8365 on 29-05-2015

Waves structure of 'ABC'on going correction

 Nifty-EOD Chart (29-May-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
2- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Sub Wave-1(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Sub Wave-2(8270.15 on 28-05-2015)
7- Sub Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8,443.90 on 29-05-2015

Intra Day Chart Analysis(29-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-May-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8370-8443 in 5 last hours.
2- Whole day actual trading between 8305-8443

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the higher levels of the day with 1.38% gains but mixed(both buying and selling) Patterns formations between 8370-8443 in last 5 hours therefore selling possibility can not be ruled out on the back of all around accepted RBI Rates cut on 2nd June and follow up consolidation is must in the beginning of next week for rally continuation.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Wave-1 started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its Wave-5 commenced from 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 which completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015. After that 'ABC'correction begun which finished at 7997.15 on 07-05-2015 and it is just above the bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) therefore it is clear that Wave-5 has almost completely retraced in previous 'ABC' correction. Following Bullish developments at the bottom of Wave-'C':-

1- Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders with its Neckline at 8365 broken out.
2- 15 sessions trading between 7997-8365 and its top at 8365 broken out.
3- Nifty tested and hovered around 11 sessions Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8209) and finally sustained above it.

As above most crucial and Bullish patterns near the bottom of Wave-'C' therefore strong indications of 'ABC'correction completion because:-

1- As 42 Sessions correction from  04-03-2015 to 17-12-2014 and 15 sessions Bullish pattern formation near the bottom of correction therefore it is sufficient for  time wise correction completion.
2- Wave-5 has almost completely retraced in previous 'ABC' correction therefore price wise correction completion can also be considered

Sub Wave-3 is on and as per following calculations its minimum target is at

As per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Impulsive Sub Wave-3 is on and it should gain more points than Sub Wave-1 gained.

Sub Wave-1 gained 8489.55-7997.15=492.40 Points

Sub Wave-3 started from 8270.15 and and as per Elliot Wave theory it should gain minimum 492.40 because it can not be shorter than Sub Wave-1 therefore its minimum target is at:-

8762.55=8270.15(Sub Wave-3 started)+492.40(Sub Wave-1 gained)

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8431-8462
2- 8486-8502
3- 8522-8564
4- 8640-8468
5- 8690-8750
6- 8777-8784
7- 8802-8844

Wave-5 has almost completely corrected and Bullish patterns formations at the bottom of  Wave-'C' therefore strong signals of that whole rally correction completion which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013. It also means that Nifty is now prepared for fresh rally above life time high(9119.20) after previous rally correction completion.

For Short Term now Pull Back Rally continuation towards 8762.55 will be understood in the coming weeks but follow up consolidation is must because 5 hours mixed Patterns formations on 29-05-2015 and above mentioned multiple resistances above previous week closing.

View is Cautious after Nifty Jun Fut closing in discount on Expiry day today

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(29-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-May-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation between 8271-8295(Immediate Supports)
3- Whole day actual trading between 8271-8364

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As huge fall in Shanghai and Hang Seng therefore continuous slipping immediately after opening up to 01:00 PM but Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel and lower levels good consolidation was also seen therefore technically view will not be Bearish and fresh up moves are expected above today highest after 1/2 sessions consolidation.

One rare development was seen today that Nifty Jun Fut closed in discount at 8318.55 while most of the time next month Fut were being closed on Expiry day with near about or above 50 Points Premium. As today closing in discount therefore view is cautious and fresh selling beginning possibility on the back of Repo Rates cut hopes by RBI (on 2nd June Credit policy) will also be considered.  

Certainly view is cautious and watchful because following contradictory developments:-

1- Intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns therefore Indian markets are technically poised for up moves.
2- All around rates cut expectations are turning high therefore Jun Fut should have closed with good premium but closed in discount therefore if selling develops in this positive news led heated sentiments then huge fall may be seen even after RBI Rates cut.

Two  Trading sessions are left before RBI Credit Policy and big moves are expected after its announcement. Let follow up technical positions formations develop in next 2 sessions then will be firstly understood through intraday charts patterns formations and then will updated accordingly. 

No gossiping never guessing and whatsoever market suggest only that is always updated. Let market prepare for next trend and decisive moves conclusions come then will be updated in the same manner as being done for the last more than 5 years.

View not be Bearish after Shanghai & Hang Seng led huge Fall

Mid-session Outlook(28-05-2015)

As consolidation yesterday therefore positive opening in Indian markets but down moves started because sentiment completely dampened after huge fall beginning in following Asian markets:-

Shanghai closed now 321(6.50%) down.
Hang Seng is now trading 826(2.94%) down.

As today fall in Indian markets is Asian markets driven and all the European markets are also in Red today therefore view will not be Bearish and fresh up moves are expected above today highest after 1/2 sessions consolidation because:-

1- Today intraday patterns are not showing selling formations.
2- Last 2 sessions intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations.