Sustaining beyond 8284-8504 will decide Next Trend

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(24-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8583-8504
2- Selling between 8408-4455
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Most time trading between 8361-8455
5- Whole day actual trading between 8361-8504

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 22-04-2015 in "Pull Back Rally possibility above 8469":-

1- As mixed patterns were seen at higher levels in last 2 sessions therefore
2- firstly sustaining above the highest of last 2 sessions(8469) is must for the confirmation of Pull Back Rally 
3- Mixed Patterns between 8419-8460 on 21-04-2015
4- Mixed Patterns between 8371-8449 on 22-04-2015

Pull Back Rally was seen above 8469 immediately after opening but Nifty could not sustain at higher levels and slipped fast after intraday highest formation at 8504.95.

As mixed patterns were seen between 8371-8460 in last 2 sessions and Nifty traded most time within this range between 8361-8455 today with mixed patterns formations again within this range therefore firstly Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves within or near about 8361-8460. As buying was seen below 8361 between 8284-8318 on 22-04-2015 and selling was seen above 8460 between 8583-8504 on 23-04-2015 therefore finally sustaining beyond 8284-8504 will decide next trend.

Pull Back Rally possibility above 8469

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(23-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 21 & Apr 22,2015)

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8419-8460 on 21-04-2015
2- Slow down moves with buying indications on 21-04-2015
3- Mixed Patterns between 8371-8449 on 22-04-2015
4- Slow down moves with buying indications on 22-04-2015
5- Support between 8284-8318 on 22-04-2015
6- Strong up moves in last hours on 22-04-2015 
7- Bullish Hammer Candle formation on 22-04-2015 
8- 2 Sessions actual trading between 8284-8469 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Importance of 8352.70 and 8269 was updated in following topic on 21-04-2015:-

4 Crucial levels will decide the Life of on going Correction

Although Nifty slipped below 8352.70 but recovered 144 points after getting supports just above 8269 at 8284.70 and Bullish Hammer Candle formation also on 22-04-2015 therefore market saved today from 2 most Bearish following patterns:-

1- 8 Months long Bearish Broadening Rising Channel(Closing above lower rising line of Channel at 8352.70) 
2- Support and strong up moves above the Neckline(8269) of Head and Shoulders Bearish Pattern. 

Although Nifty slipped 185 points from higher levels in last 2 sessions but as such selling patterns were not seen and lower levels supports with consolidation patterns were also seen in last 2 sessions therefore first indication of correction completion and Pull Back Rally beginning possibility. 

As mixed patterns were seen at higher levels in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining above the highest of last 2 sessions(8469) is must for the confirmation of Pull Back Rally beginning and fresh up moves towards following resistances:-

1- 8522-8564
2- 8640-8468
3- 8690-8750 
4- 8802-8844

4 Crucial levels will decide the Life of on going Correction

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(22-04-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (21-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 8 Months rally in Broadening Rising Channel
2- Retesting of lower rising line of Broadening Rising Channel on 21-04-2015 
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8180)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 11-04-2015 in Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week:-

1- Broadening Rising Channel formation started on 08-08-2015 and since then rally continuation within this channel. 
2- As Rising Channel therefore it is a Bearish pattern and its valid breaking down will mean possibility of deeper correction like 2008 because Channel is such 8 months long. 
3- Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet therefore view is cautious and sustaining beyond lower rising line of this channel should be watched in the coming weeks for first strong signal of next Long Term Trend.

Lower rising line of Broadening Rising Channel was retested at today lowest(8352.70) and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions because sustaining below it will mean emergence of deeper correction strong possibility.

Importance of 8269 and 7994 has already been updated in following Weekly Analysis topic on 18-04-2015:-

Correction Continuation & 3 crucial levels are Big Trend Decider of Nifty 

8269 is Neckline of 64 sessions Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern and its valid break down will mean deeper correction confirmation. As 7994 is 100% of Wave-'A' therefore correction continuation possibility up to this level is alive

Correction is on,its continuation is expected and no signal of its completion yet. Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8180 and finally sustaining it beyond will give correction completion / deeper correction confirmation therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. Importance of following 4 Levels have been updated above and expected that Bulls and Bears fight will be seen near about these 4 Crucial levels as well as finally sustaining beyond these levels will decide the life of on going correction:-

1- 8352.70
2- 8269
3- 8180
4- 7994

Finally sustaining above 8352.70 will mean strong indication of correction completion and sustaining below 7994 will mean deeper correction confirmation after slipping below 7961. As Wave-5 begun from 7961 and once slipping below it will mean deeper correction confirmation because that will be Long Term Trend turning down confirmation also after sustaining below its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8180).  

Correction continuation with Technical Bounce back Possibility 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(21-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Sharp fall immediately after opening
2- 4 Hours Selling patterns formation between 8522-8564 
3- 100 Points down moves after 4 hours selling
3- Whole day actual trading between 8422-8619

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly 50 points slipping within first 6 minutes and after that more than 4 hours selling between 8522-8564 therefore 100 points down moves in last hours and closing near the lower levels of the day. 

Correction is on and it continuation is still expected but very short term indicators have turned oversold therefore technical bounce back possibility can not be ruled out. As 8522-8564 has developed immediate resistance therefore complete consolidation is required for sustaining above 8564 and until Nifty will not sustain above 8564 till then next rally will not be considered.

Correction Continuation & 3 crucial levels are Big Trend Decider of Nifty 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 20 to Apr 24,2015)

Huge correction of Nifty was seen in 2008 which started on 08-01-2008 from 6357.10 and completed at 2252.75 on 27-10-2008 and Wave-1 started. Its waves structure with detailed analysis was updated in following topic of previous week Outlook:-

Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week

Its Wave-3 started  after Wave-2 correction completion on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15. Now Wave-3 is on and its waves structure is as follows:- 

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013)- Wave-2 beginning('ABC' correction)
7- Wave'A'(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave'B'(5093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave'c'(5118.85 on 28-08-2013)- Wave-3 beginning Wave after 'ABC' correction completion)
10- Wave-3 recent top formation at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that correction continuation
11- Recent bottom of on going correction formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015

Waves structure of Sub Wave-3 of  Wave-3

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction completion(Wave-A) with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- Pull Back rally completion(Wave-B) with recent top formation at 8844.40 on 15-04-2015

Waves structure of Wave-5 and on going Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C' continuation with recent bottom formation at 8596.70 on 17-04-2015

62 Sessions sideways Trading between 8269-9119

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Head and Shoulders Bearish Pattern formations in 62 sessions with neckline at 8269

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Wave-3 started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013,its 5 waves completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that correction started. As correction begun after completion of 5 waves therefore Nifty may correct whole 4000 points rally in accordance of following retracement levels:-

1- 13.0%- 8,598(Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 8,174
3- 27.0%- 8,038
4- 38.2%- 7,590(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7,118(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 6,646(Crucial)
7- 70.0%- 6,290
8- 76.4%- 6,062
8- 78.6%- 5,974
10-88.6%- 5,574

Now 'ABC' correction of Wave-5 of Wave-3 continuation between 8269-9119. Waves movements within this range are as follows:-

Wave-'A' corrected 850 points(9119-8269)
Now Wave-'C' correction is on after Wave-'B'completion at 8844 and if Wave-'C' corrects 100% of Wave-'A' then:- 
Wave-'C' may correct up to 7994(8844-850)

Following levels are lying near 7994:-

1- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8175)
2- Bottom of Wave-5(7961.35)
3- Bottom of Wave-'A'(8269.15)

Wave-'C' correction continuation and expected that war between Bulls and Bears will be seen near about above 4 levels as well as finally sustaining beyond 7961 will decide next Big moves because:-

1- If Nifty sustain below 7961 then much deeper correction may be seen because that will be Long Term Trend turning down confirmation after sustaining below its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8175) also.  
2- If Nifty sustain above 7961 then that will be strong indication of not only Wave-5 correction completion but also of correction completion of that Wave-1 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013. 

Long Term Trend is up, Short Term Trend is down and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 8269-8844 and finally sustaining beyond this range will decide Intermediate Term Trend as well as give first strong indication of next big moves because:- 

1- Nifty is sideways between 8269-9119 for the last 62 sessions with Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations within it and its neckline is at 8269 therefore sustaining below 8269 will mean first strong indication of deeper correction.  
2- As following 2 resistances are above 8844 which have turned weaker after 27 sessions correction below it therefore sustaining above 8844 will mean first strong indication of fresh strong rally above life time high(9119.20) after correction completion.  

1- Resistances between 8920-8943
2- Resistances 9023-9096

'ABC' correction of Wave-5 of Wave-3 continuation between 7961-9119 and finally sustaining beyond this range will decide next big trend in above mentioned manner. Now Wave-'C' correction is on and if Wave-'C' corrects 100% of Wave-'A' then it may correct up to 7994 which is just above 7961 therefore possibility of correction completion above 7961 after 'ABC' correction completion is still alive and should be firstly watched. As many times Bull markets complete its correction in narrow range sideways market with Time wise correction also therefore correction completion within sideways markets between 7961-9119 can not be ruled out.

Correction is on and its continuation is expected. As its life and length will be decided through sustaining beyond 8269,7994 and 7961 therefore sustaining beyond these 3 levels should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks. Above mentioned next big Trends possibilities should be kept in mind and these 3 crucial levels will give strong indications of its beginning as well as these levels will be proved those big moves decider. 

As busy therefore today Outlook is not being updated

Strong Signals of More Weakness in Indian Markets

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(16-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 09 to Apr 15,2015):-

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Following selling above 8740 was told in all last 3 sessions Outlooks:-

1- Selling between 8740-8763 on 09-04-2015 
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour on 09-04-2015 
3- Selling between 8761-8781 on 10-04-2015
4- Selling between 8754-8768 on 10-04-2015
5- Selling between 8777-8787 on 10-04-2015
6- Selling between 8777-8784 on 13-04-2015
7- Selling between 8810-8825 on 13-04-2015
8- Selling between 8825-8841 on 13-04-2015
9- Nifty slipped below 8740 in sharp fall of only 45 Minutes on 15-04-2015 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8802-8844
2- 121 Points sharp fall in last 45 Minutes
3- Whole day actual trading between 8723-8844

Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Selling above 8740 was continuously updated in following 3 previous sessions Outlooks:-

1- Topic posted on 14-04-2015:- Short Term Correction Possibility still Alive 
2- Topic posted on 11-04-2015:- Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week
3- Topic posted on 09-04-2015:- 8825 is Next Trend and Big moves Decider 

We cautioned and told selling in following words again and again:-

In Short Term Correction Possibility still Alive:-

1- whole day selling patterns formations and selling was seen in previous 2 sessions also therefore strong signals of selling phase continuation.
2- Short Term indicators are also in Overbought zone therefore Short Term correction possibility is very much alive
3- Short Term Correction possibility is still alive despite previous Nifty closing with 0.61% gains

In Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week:-

1- higher levels good selling in last 2 sessions therefore emergence down moves possibility 
2- strong signals of fresh down moves within first 2 sessions of next week.
3- good intraday selling patterns formations in last 2 sessions and Bearish Shooting Star Candlestick formations also in last 2 sessions therefore Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in the beginning of Next Week

In 8825 is Next Trend and Big moves Decider:-

1- selling patterns formations were also seen at higher levels today
2- some selling patterns were also seen and next resistances are little above today highest therefore follow up consolidation is must.

As selling above 8740 in all last 3 sessions and follow up more than more than 5 hours selling today therefore Nifty slipped below 8740 in only 45 Minutes and above mentioned selling ranges between 8740-8844 will be strong resistances as well as complete consolidation will be required for fresh rally above 8844. 

Long and Short Term Trends are still up and now Intermediate Term is sideways between 8269-8844,expected that Nifty will trade within this range in the coming week/weeks as well as will prepare for next big moves beyond this range.

If follow up selling develops then that will be strong indication of corrective Wave-C formation for fresh down moves below the bottom of on going correction(8269.15). As good selling in last 4 sessions and last 2 sessions trading range broken down with Engulfing Bearish Candle formation today therefore strong signals of more weakness and fresh down moves are expected also in the coming sessions.

Short Term Correction Possibility still Alive

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(15-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8777-8784
2- Selling between 8810-8825
3- Selling between 8825-8841
4- Whole day actual trading between 8763-8841

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the higher levels of the day but whole day selling patterns formations and selling was seen in previous 2 sessions also therefore strong signals of selling phase continuation. Last 3 sessions are showing selling patterns and it should be kept in mind that length of correction will depend on the size and days of selling patterns. As Short Term indicators are also in Overbought zone therefore Short Term correction possibility is very much alive and market will be healthy after its completion for fresh rally. 

Long and Short Term Trends are up and Intermediate Term was sideways between 8269-8788 for the 15 sessions and last Monday closing was above it at 8834. As selling patterns formations is previous 3 sessions therefore follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8788. Let it happen then fresh rally will be considered towards and above life time high(9119.20) after fresh consolidation near about following resistances:-

1- 8920-8943(weak)
2- 9023-9096(strong)

Short Term Correction possibility is still alive despite previous Nifty closing with 0.61% gains and fresh decisive moves will be considered after fresh follow up consolidation patterns formations.

Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 13 to Apr 17,2015)

Nifty-Weekly Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(Correction beginning after 15 Years highest formation)
2- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(9 months correction completion and Wave-1 beginning)
3- Wave-1 (6335.90 on 08-11-2010)
4- Wave-2 (4531.15 on 20-12-2011)
5- Wave-3 (life high formations at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015)

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis

Impulsive Wave-3 continuation,it has extended above 1.618% and its next extension levels are as follows:-

1- 1.618%- 8,858(extension completed)
2- 1.764%- 9,454
3- 1.886%- 9,952
4- 2.000%- 10,418
5- 2.236%- 11,381
6- 2.618%- 12,941

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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 Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction completion(Wave-A) with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- Pull Back rally continuation(Wave-B) with recent top formation at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Correction beginning after Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015. As 850(more than 9%) points correction and a strong signal of 5th Wave completion of that impulsive Wave-1 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 therefore until Nifty will not sustain above all time high(9119.20) till then correction possibility of whole that 4000.35 points rally can not be ruled out which started from 5118.85 and completed at 9119.20.

Broadening Rising Channel Formations in last 8 months

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

8 Months rally in Broadening Rising Channel

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Broadening Rising Channel formation started on 08-08-2015 and since then rally continuation within this channel. As Rising Channel therefore it is a Bearish pattern and its valid breaking down will mean possibility of deeper correction like 2008 because Channel is such 8 months long. Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet therefore view is cautious and sustaining beyond lower rising line of this channel should be watched in the coming weeks for first strong signal of next Long Term Trend.

Waves structure of Wave-5

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and correction beginning
7- Correction completion(Wave-A) with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- Pull Back rally continuation(Wave-B) with recent top formation at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015
9- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8153

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Recent bottom formation of on going correction is at 8269.15 and after that Pull Back rally continuation with recent top formation at 8787.40 but correction completion confirmation is still required. Long Term Trend is up and its decider 200-Day EMA is today at 8153 which is 627 points below previous close therefore no threat to Long Term Trend at this moment.

Waves structure of on going Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning
2- Wave-A(8612 on 16-03-2015)
3- Wave-B(8788.20 on 18-03-2015)
4- Wave-C(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
5- Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015 which is just below the top of Wave-B(8788.20)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Wave-B completed at 8788.20 and recent top formation of on going Pull Back rally is at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015 which is just below the top of Wave-B therefore 8788.20 has become crucial now because that will decide Intermediate Term Trend which is sideways between 8269-8788 for the last 15 sessions and should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 09 & Apr 10,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Lower levels consolidation between 8683-8728 on 09-04-2015
2- Higher levels selling between 8740-8763 on 09-04-2015
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour on 09-04-2015
4- Most time good selling between 8754-8787 on 10-04-2015
5- 2 Sessions actual trading between 8683-8787

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis

Although lower levels some supports but higher levels good selling in last 2 sessions therefore emergence down moves possibility as sell as sustaining below last 2 sessions lowest(8683) will mean steep fall.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8761-8781
2- Selling between 8754-8768
3- Selling between 8777-8787
4- Whole day actual trading between 8733-8787

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

54 Points sideways market in previous trading sessions(10-04-2015) with closing near the higher levels of the day but almost whole day selling patterns formations therefore strong signals of fresh down moves within first 2 sessions of next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Correction started after Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 and last 8 Months rally in Broadening Rising Channel which is such long Bearish pattern also therefore valid break down of its lower Rising line will mean possibility of deeper correction like 2008 because in that situation Nifty may correct following big rallies:-

1- 5118.85 from 28-08-2013(because valid break down will its 5th wave completion confirmation)
2- 4531.15 from 20-12-2011(because valid break down will its 3rd wave completion confirmation)

Long and Short Term Trends are up and Intermediate Term is sideways between 8269-8788 for the 15 sessions,finally sustaining beyond this range will be strong indication of next decisive moves. Although previous session and week closing near the higher levels of the day day/week but good intraday selling patterns formations in last 2 sessions and Bearish Shooting Star Candlestick formations also in last 2 sessions therefore Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in the beginning of Next Week. Next trend will be decided through sustaining beyond Intermediate Term deciding levels(8269-8788) and should be finally watched in the coming week/weeks.

8825 is Next Trend and Big moves Decider

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(10-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8683-8714
2- Consolidation between 8702-8728
3- Selling between 8740-8763
4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 8683-8785

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Following line was told yesterday in "Very Short Term Down Moves Possibility":-

As some selling today therefore very Short Term down moves possibility with slipping below today lowest(8680)

Following lines were told today at 07:50:00 AM in "Pre-open Outlook(09-04-2015)":-

1- India’s Rating Outlook Raised by Moody’s on Economic Prospects
2- As most positive news today morning therefore gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets
3- Markets are tend to consolidate at higher levels after such strong news

As selling yesterday therefore Very Short Term down moves possibility was told and it was seen immediately after opening and Nifty slipped 73 points in first hour but from higher level because most positive news and Nifty got supports at 8682.45 which was  just above yesterday lowest(8680)

Although good supports at lower levels today but selling patterns formations were also seen at higher levels today therefore some more consolidation like today is firstly required for next decisive up moves.

Following resistances were updated in Outlooks of previous sessions:-

1- 8738-8788(strong)
2- 8805-8825(weak)
3- 8920-8943(weak)
4- 9023-9096(strong)

1st resistance has been almost cleared today but some selling patterns were also seen and next resistances are little above today highest therefore follow up consolidation is must. Once forceful break out / sustaining above 8825 will mean possibility of fast 100 points rally and emergence of correction completion hopes also after Intermediate Term Trend turning up confirmations.

Certainly 8825 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond it should be firstly  watched now for next Big moves confirmations.

Pre-open Outlook(09-04-2015)

Sentiment is strong today morning after following news:- 

India’s Rating Outlook Raised by Moody’s on Economic Prospects

Rally is on but some selling patterns were seen yesterday therefore very Short Term down moves possibility was considered for today market. As most positive news today morning therefore gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets. Markets are tend to consolidate at higher levels after such strong news and this possibility can not be ruled out because Long and Short Term Trends are up and rally is on.

Very Short Term Down Moves Possibility

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(09-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (8-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8700-8716 in first hour.
2- Mixed Patterns between 8700-8730 in last 4 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 8680-8730

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly selling and after that Mixed Patterns formations in last 4 hours therefore an indication of some down moves. Next resistances are 8738-8825 and selling seen just below it today. As more selling is required for decisive therefore follow up selling tomorrow will mean correction of last 7 sessions rally between 8269-8730.

As some selling today therefore very Short Term down moves possibility with slipping below today lowest(8680) can not be ruled out but sustaining below it is must after complete follow up selling for correction beginning.

Pull Back Rally within Sideways Market

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(08-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Apr-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8662-8693(Immediate Resistances)
2- Consolidation Patterns between 8586-8617(Immediate Supports) 
3- High volatility after RBI Credit Policy.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8586-8693

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As last more than 2 hours up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel were seen yesterday  therefore following conclusive lines were told yesterday in Crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy:-

firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations;- 

1- Forceful break out or sustaining above 8825 will mean clearing 2 resistances and fresh rally after correction completion. 
2- Forceful break down or sustaining below 8627 will mean fresh down moves after Pull Back Rally completion in 1st Resistance range.

As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow therefore Indian Markets may be highly volatile also and finally above crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy.

Nifty slipped below 8627 but without required force after negative sensing unchanged RBI Credit Policy and lower levels consolidation was also seen today therefore some up moves were seen in last hour. As first hour selling between 8662-8693 and next resistances are just above it between 8738-8825 therefore firstly follow up consolidation is required for next decisive up moves.

Long and Short Term Trends are up and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 8269-8825. Certainly positive indication after closing above 8627 after consolidation below it between 8586-8617 therefore Pull Back Rally continuation will be expected towards 8825. Let Nifty sustain above 8825 after complete follow up consolidation then rally above life time high will be considered after Intermediate Term Trend turning up confirmations. 

As we were neither Bullish nor Bearish for today Credit Policy therefore we updated only Crucial levels yesterday and same view today that Nifty will firstly prepare for next trend between 8586-8825 in the coming 2/3 sessions but Pull Back Rally will be seen within sideways market. Let Nifty prepare then next trend will be updated according to intraday charts patterns formations in the coming sessions.

Crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(07-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Apr-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Almost 4 hours sideways trading with mixed Patterns between 8574-8600 
2- Last more than 2 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8574-8667

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following resistances were updated 04-04-2015 in "Positive Surprise by RBI on 7th Apr will mean Strong Rally this time":-

1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096

Importance of 8521-8627 was told in almost all the Outlooks of last 1 week and Nifty closed above it today but as such consolidation patterns were not seen at lower levels and last more than 2 hours up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel as well as today closing is within above mentioned 1st resistance range therefore firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations;- 

1- Forceful break out or sustaining above 8825 will mean clearing 2 resistances and fresh rally after correction completion. 
2- Forceful break down or sustaining below 8627 will mean fresh down moves after Pull Back Rally completion in 1st Resistance range.

As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow therefore Indian Markets may be highly volatile also and finally above crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy.

Pre-open Outlook(06-04-2015)

As US jobs report(March) came in much weaker than expected therefore U.S. stock and index futures declined sharply on Friday:- 

1- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 165 points(-0.93%)  
2- S&P-500 futures fell 19.75 points(0.96%)
3- Nasdaq-100 futures lost 43.75 points(-1.03%)  

In long run it is positive news because Fed hike seems remote in June FOMC meet after this report but Asian markets may react negative and initial weakness possibility can not be ruled out next Monday.

Positive Surprise by RBI on 7th Apr will mean Strong Rally this time

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 06 to Apr 10,2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 20 to Apr 01,2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 9 Sessions intraday charts

1- 4 Sessions actual trading within 8521-8627 between 20/03/2015-25/03/2015
2- 4 Sessions range broken down on 26/03/2015 after the news of Saudi Arabia air strikes in Yemen.
3- 5 Sessions Volatility with both higher levels selling and equally good lower levels supports
4- Weekly closing at 8586.25 on 01-04-2015 which is between 4 Sessions range(8521-8627) 
5- 9 Sessions actual trading between 8269-8627 

Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Following Weekly Analysis Topic of previous week was updated on 28-03-2015

8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally

Pull Back Rally expectations was told and 334 Points Pull Back rally was seen in previous week as well as weekly closing of Nifty was at 8586.25 which if within mentioned range(8521-8627) 

Although 4 Sessions actual trading range(8521-8627) was with good consolidation and minor selling but range broken down on 26/03/2015 after negative news of Saudi Arabia air strikes in Yemen therefore complete selling was required for sustaining below 8521. As on the contrary good lower levels consolidations and higher levels follow up consolidation was also seen in the next 5 Volatile Sessions after 26/03/2015 therefore not sustaining below 8521 and Weekly closing at 8586.25 between 4 Sessions range(8521-8627) and this range has become most crucial for deciding next trend.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Apr-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8464-8499 
2- Sudden jump after the announcement of "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020"
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8517-8542 
4- Up moves in last hour between 8542-8603
5- Whole day actual trading between 8464-8603

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

First 3 hours negative zone trading with mixed patterns formations but sudden jump after the announcement of "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020". As Follow up consolidation between 8517-8542 after sudden jump and last hour up moves between 8464-8603 which is within mentioned 4 Sessions range(8521-8627) therefore emergence of fresh up moves expectations in the beginning of next week.   

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- 334 Points Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8603.40 on 01-04-2015

Waves structure of Wave-5

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning
7- Wave-A(8612 on 16-03-2015)
8- Wave-B(8788.20 on 18-03-2015)
9- Wave-C(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
10- Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8603.40 on 01-04-2015

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Long Term Trend is up,Intermediate and Short Term Trends are down. The rally which started at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after its 5th Wave completion. Its 5th Wave was extended and its 5th Wave also completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction begun which completed at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015. Calculation of 'ABC' correction is as follows:-

9119.20(Wave-A top)
8612.00(Wave-A bottom)
---------
 507.20(Wave-A corrected)
---------------------------------
8788.20(Wave-C top)
8269.15(Wave-C bottom)
---------
 519.05(Wave-C corrected)
---------

Wave-C corrected almost same points as Wave-A corrected therefore confirmation of this 'ABC' wave completion. 

As confirmation of 5th Wave completion of that impulsive Wave-1 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 therefore until Nifty will not sustain above all time high(9119.20) till then correction possibility of whole this 4000.35 points rally can not be ruled out which started from 5118.85 and completed at 9119.20. 

Certainly Pull Back Rally continuation and finally sustaining beyond 8269-9119 will decide the fate of on going correction. Supports and resistances within this range are as follows:-  

Supports:-

1- 8517-8542
2- 8464-8499
3- 8382-8403
4- 8337-8356
5- 8269-8331

Resistances:-

1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096

9 Sessions actual trading between 8269-8627 and previous week closing within it at 8586.25 after lower lower levels good consolidations in last 4 sessions. As selling patterns have not developed yet therefore Pull Back Rally continuation is expected in the beginning of next week and once sustaining above 9 Sessions highest(8627) will mean strong rally towards above mentioned resistances.

As multiple supports and resistances are between 8269-9119 therefore expected that Nifty will remain sideways within this range in the coming couple of weeks and prepare for next big moves. Finally sustaining it beyond should be watched for next Big following trend:-  

1- Sustaining above 9119 will mean fresh strong rally after less than 23.6% correction completion at 8269. 
2- Sustaining below 8269 will mean correction continuation towards following retracement levels:-

23.6%- 8174
27.0%- 8038
38.2%- 7590
50.0%- 7118
61.8%- 6646
70.7%- 6290
76.4%- 6062
78.6%- 5974
88.6%- 5574

Most positive news of Land acquisition ordinance re-promulgation on 3rd Apr and RBI Credit Policy on 7th Apr,if positive surprise by Raghuram Rajan then strong rally will be seen because market is well prepared for it this time after good consolidation at lower levels in last 4 sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(01-04-2015)

First 3 hours negative zone trading but sudden jump after the announcement of market friendly "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020" and testing of immediate resistance range(8521-8550). Although good selling within this range yesterday but Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020 is also equally good therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for the confirmations actual impact / reactions of Policy on Indian Stock Markets.

Pre-open Outlook(01-04-2015)

Good consolidation between 8269-8356 on 27-03-2015 and equally good selling between  8521-8550 on 31-03-2015 therefore Nifty will remain sideways between 8269-8550 in the coming 2/3 sessions as well as will prepare for next decisive moves within this range. 

Certainly correction continuation is expected in the coming sessions but up to 8269 and finally sustaining it beyond should be watched for correction continuation / completion confirmations.

Correction Continuation after Follow up Good Selling

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(01-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Mar-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours selling between 8521-8550(Immediate Resistance)
2- 90 Points sharp fall in 20 minutes
3- Whole day actual trading between 8454-8550

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told on 30-03-2015 in 8521-8627 is next trend decider:-

1- Expected that Nifty will trade between above mentioned range(8521-8627) and will prepare for next decisive moves
2- As this range is next trend decider therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next trend confirmations in the coming sessions

Following conclusive line was told on 28-03-2015 in 8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally:-

Pull Back rally is expected in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond 8521-8627 will decide its length and fate.

As was told in the Outlooks of last 2 sessions 100%  same happened:-

1- Strong Pull Back Rally was seen and Nifty closed 150 points up on 30-03-2015. 
2- Nifty traded between above mentioned range(8521-8627) today and traded between 8521-8550. 

Firstly more than 4 hours selling between 8521-8550 and after that sharp 90 Points fall in 20 minutes today therefore breaking down confirmation of 8521-8627. Correction is on and its continuation confirmation today after follow up selling between 8521-8550 and until Nifty will not sustain above it after follow up consolidation till then next up moves will not be considered.

Although flat closing today but follow up good selling between 8521-8627 today therefore correction continuation is expected in the coming sessions.

8521-8627 is next trend decider

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(31-03-2015)

Following line with detailed analysis was told on 28-03-2015 in 8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally:-

Pull Back rally is expected in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond 8521-8627 will decide its length and fate.

As was told 100% same happened and strong Pull Back Rally was seen as well as Nifty closed 150 points up today.

Expected that Nifty will trade between above mentioned range(8521-8627) and will prepare for next decisive moves. As this range is next trend decider therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next trend confirmations in the coming sessions.

(As extremely busy today therefore detailed analysis is not being updated)