Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(11-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly Down Moves in Bullish Falling Channel in first hour.
2- Consolidation and supports between 6053-6060
3- Selling between 6064-6071
4- Whole day actual trading between 6047-6083

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although lower levels supports with consolidation pattern of Bullish Falling Channel but higher levels selling also between resistance ranges(6059-6097) therefore some down moves towards next supports(5992) will be seen. 

Indian markets are preparing for next trend and it will take its own time because both higher levels strong resistances and good supports at lower levels also. Long Term Trend is sideways and Nifty hovered around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) in previous week,until Nifty will not sustain below it till then Bullish markets hopes will remain alive and expected that finally rally will remain continued after follow up consolidations near about next supports range(5934-5992)

Mid-session Outlook-2(10-02-2014)

More than 4 hours 25 points narrow range sideways trading between 6052-6077 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling also therefore expected that Nifty will trade some more time within and near about this range and valid break out of this range will be beginning towards next trend. 

Mid-session Outlook(10-02-2014)

Technical positions of Nifty is as follows:-

1  Supports between 5934-5992.
2- Resistances between 6059-6097. 
3- Intermediate Term Trend is down and Long Term is sideways.

As multiple resistances developed between 6130-6358 during 40 sessions therefore this range broken down and market require complete time for decisive rally after good consolidations and supports in previous week below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002).

Although Nifty slipped below 6059 but minor intraday support and consolidation seen between 6052-6062 and now trading above 6059 for the last 1 hour. Firstly sustaining beyond following ranmge should be watched for first indication and next big trend:-

1- 6059-6097
2- 5934-6097
3- 5934-6130

Expected that finally up moves will be seen after follow up consolidations within mentioned ranges but follow up consolidation is must because Intermediate Term Trend is down and Long Term is sideways.

Post-open Outlook(10-02-2014)

As Nifty is trading between resistance ranges(6059-6074 and 6086-6097) and require complete consolidations therefore slipped immediately after opening. Nifty will firstly prepare for next decisive moves between(6059-6097) and sustaining beyond this range should be watched for the beginning of next trend.

Expected that finally up moves will be seen after follow up consolidations within mentioned ranges but sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched because Intermediate Term Trend is down and Long Term Trend is sideways.

Bullish Week Ahead
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 10 to Feb 14,2014)

Following lines were told on 02-02-2014 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Feb 03 to Feb 07,2014)

last hopes of Bulls are as follows:-

1- 200-Day EMA(today at 6000)
2- Bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45)

Slipping below above 2 levels can not be ruled out but sustaining below 6000/5972 is must for trend reversal and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

As was told same happened and Nifty slipped below 6000/5972 and last hope of Bulls remained alive  through not sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA and Weekly closing above it.

Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358.

Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 40 Sessions trading between 6130-6415 between 02-12-2013 and 28-01-2014.
2- 18 Sessions trading between 6130-6358 with triple top formations
3- Supports at 200-Day EMA in last 7 sessions.
4- 200-Day EMA(today at 6002)

Conclusions from EOD charts analysis 

Intermediate Trem Trend is down,Short term is up and Long Term is sideways through hovering around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) in previous week.  Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358 and sustaining above 6130 is must for maintaining of:-

1- Wave-v of Wave-3.
2- Whole waves structure formation from 5118.85(on 28-08-2013)
3- Intermediate and Long Trem Trend turning up

Multiple resistances between 6130-6358 and strongest resistances are at 6158 because triple top formation there. Let Nifty sustain above 6130 then resistances will be updated.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 31 to Feb 07,2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 6 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 6086-6097 on 31-01-2014
2- Selling between 6059-6074 on 03-02-2014
3- Supports and consolidation between 5934-5954 on 04-02-2014
4- Consolidation and supports between 5963-5975 on 05-02-2014
6- Consolidation between 5966-5992 06-02-2014 
7- Intraday volatility with lower levels supports and consolidation but higher levels selling also on 07-02-2014 
8- 6 Sessions actual trading between 5934-6097 

Conclusions from 6 Sessions intra day chart analysis

Firstly slipping after higher levels selling but lower levels good supports and consolidation also in 6 Previous sessions therefore sustaining beyond 6 previous sessions range(5934-6097) will be next trend strong indication.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling at higher levels.
2- Consolidation patterns of Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel formations
3- Supports at lower levels between 6031-6048
4- Whole day actual trading between 6031-6079

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Volatile day with lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations but higher levels selling also therefore follow up trading positions and sustaining beyond intraday trading range(6031-6079) should also be firstly watched in the beginning of next week for next trend first indication.  

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Although Nifty slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) but nicely consolidated and got good supports below it as well therefore firstly up moves are expected in the coming week and sustaining above following resistances will be beginning of fresh rally:-

1- Resistance range(6059-6074)
2- Resistance range(6086-6097)

Pull Back Rally beginning with Weekly Bullish Hammer Candle formation in previous week and until Nifty will not sustain below the lowest(5934) of previous week till then next down moves will not be considered. As complete follow up consolidation is must for rally above 6358 therefore expected that coming week will be sideways between 5934-6358 and prepare for next big trend because Indian markets have to understand the implications of following 2 contradictory happenings:-

1- Tapering of QE3 by $10 billion per month
2- Narendrea Modi clear victory in Lok Sabha Elections

Narendrea Modi clear victory will mean strong rally and its possibilities are increasing, its happening will mean strong rally above all time high but implications of QE3 tapering has to be seen and understood also.

Finally Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) and Bullish Waves structure saved in previous week therefore expected that Indian markets will remain Bullish in next week.

Pre-closing Outlook(07-02-2014)

Now Indian markets are range bound between 5934-6097 and follow up moves between 5992-6059 and sustaining it beyond should also be firstly watched for next trend first indications.

Nifty slipped below fast after selling below 6059 but immediate supports also seen at 6037 today. Sustained rally above 6100 is still expected despite sharp fall and markets will take its complete time for consolidations.

Mid-session Outlook-3(07-02-2014)

As follow up selling seen below 6059 today therefore down moves towards and below next supports(5992) will be seen.

Mid-session Outlook-2(07-02-2014)

As higher levels resistances therefore following line was told in both previous Outlooks:-

Market will take its complete time

Sharp fall seen after some selling in last 1 hours because selling developed in mentioned resistance range. Strong supports developed at lower levels in last 3 sessions and now Indian markets will be understood range bound between 5934-6097.

Sustained rally above 6100 is still expected despite sharp fall and markets will take its complete time for consolidations but follow up moves between 5992-6059 should also be firstly watched for next trend confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(07-02-2014)

Although Nifty slipped after opening and now trading near the lower levels of today but today intraday charts have not shown as such selling patterns as well today first 2 hours down moves may be for consolidations because resistances up to 6097.

Sustained rally above 6100 is still expected but markets will take its complete time for consolidations.

Post-open Outlook(07-02-2014)

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(07-02-2014)

Today started rally continuation is expected in the coming sessions and correction completion strong indication will be after sustaining above next immediate resistance range(6059-6074)

Nifty traded most time between mentioned immediate resistance range(6059-6074) after gap up strong opening and slipped below it also but sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched now. Market will take its complete time for any sustained rally above 6100 because of following 2 resistances:-

1- Resistance range(6059-6074)
2- Resistance range(6086-6097)

Sharp Fall is impact of Bearish Rising Wedge formation

This topic was deleted by mistake and being reproduced

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(06-02-2014)

Bearish Rising Wedge formation also seen in last 3 hours therefore some more consolidation and sustaining above 6001 is must

As Bearish Rising Wedge formation yesterday therefore Nifty could not sustain above it and fast slipped within its range in 1/2 minutes after the start of down moves today.

Following lines were told in previous Outlook and should be kept in mind:-

1- more consolidation and sustaining above 6001 is must for the confirmation of Long Term trend remaining up
2- Rally continuation hopes above 6000 are still alive and until Nifty will not sustain below 5934 till then next decisive down moves will not be considered. 
3- Sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 6001) will be strong indication of on going correction completion and firstly should be watched in the coming sessions for next decisive trend
4- Following supports seen below it in last 2 sessions which are the hopes of Bulls:-
a- Consolidation and supports between 5934-5954 on 04-02-2014
b- Consolidation and supports between 5963-5975 on 05-02-2014

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(07-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6037-6048
2- Consolidation between 5966-5992 
3- Mixed Patterns between 6024-6040 
4- Whole day actual trading between 5966-6048

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Although sharp down moves after Some selling at higher levels but continuous up moves also in last 5 hours with lower levels good consolidation therefore rally continuation is expected after some more higher levels consolidation because mixed Patterns also seen between 6024-6040.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 03 to Feb 06,2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 Sessions intraday charts

1- Lower levels supports with higher bottom formations in last 3 sessions.
2- Selling at higher levels
3- Hovering around Long Term trends decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6000) for the last 4 sessions.

Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis

Although some selling at higher levels in last 4 sessions but lower levels good consolidation and  supports with higher bottom formations in last 3 sessions also therefore it is clear that Indian markets gained strength near about 200-Day EMA(today at 6000) for the last 4 sessions. As Nifty hovered around 200-Day EMA(today at 6000) and closed above it also in last 4 sessions therefore more selling in required for valid break out of 200-Day EMA and until Nifty will not sustain below 5934 till then next decisive down moves will not be considered.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Today started rally continuation is expected in the coming sessions and correction completion strong indication will be after sustaining above next immediate resistance range(6059-6074)

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(06-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation and supports between 5963-5975
2- Bearish Rising Wedge formation 
3- Whole day actual trading between 5963-6022

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Short and Intermediate term trends are down and  Long Term trend is at stake through hovering around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6001) for the last 3 sessions. Following supports seen below it in last 2 sessions which are the hopes of Bulls:-

1- Consolidation and supports between 5934-5954 on 04-02-2014
2- Consolidation and supports between 5963-5975 on 05-02-2014

Certainly follow up supports and consolidation with higher bottom formation today but Bearish Rising Wedge formation also seen in last 3 hours therefore some more consolidation and sustaining above 6001 is must for the confirmation of Long Term trend remaining up. 

Firstly sustaining beyond 200-Day EMA will be watched in the coming sessions because its breaking down will mean whole waves structure formation from 5118.85(on 28-08-2013) will be under review and re counting of waves will be required in breaking down situation. 

Rally continuation hopes above 6000 are still alive and until Nifty will not sustain below 5934 till then next decisive down moves will not be considered. Sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 6001) will be strong indication of on going correction completion and firstly should be watched in the coming sessions for next decisive trend. 

Pre-closing Outlook(05-02-2014)

Good recovery from lower levels and now trading near the higher levels of today but selling patterns indications in last 3 hours intraday charts also therefore some volatility can not be ruled out tomorrow and sustaining above 6000 should be firstly watched tomorrow for decisive up moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(05-02-2014)

Follow up support and consolidation again seen between 5963-5975 today and certainly emergence of rally expectations after correction completion as well as and sustaining above 6000 will be its confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(05-02-2014)

Indian markets are preparing for Long Term trend near about its decider decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6000) and Supports with consolidation seen below it between 5934-5954 yesterday. If follow up selling get confirmations near about 6000 then its turning down 100% confirmation will be below 5934 and huge down moves will be seen in that situation. 

Market will take its own time in this process and hope of  a rally above 6000 is  still alive after supports and consolidation between 5934-5954 yesterday.

Although own moves immediately after opening today but today intraday charts have not given any side confirmation yet therefore just wait and watch policy at this moment.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(05-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Supports and consolidation between 5934-5954.
2- Up moves with consolidations
3- Whole day actual trading between 5934-6017.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although most depressing Global cues led huge gap down opening but firstly lower levels supports and consolidation and after that up moves with consolidations in last 3 hours therefore emergence of correction completion first signal. As 40 Sessions trading range(6130-6415) broken down in previous week and slipping below Long Term trend decider 200-Day EMA also in both previous sessions of current week therefore certainly Long Term up trend is at stake and complete consolidation is required for its survival. Still hope of  a rally  because Nifty closed above 200-Day EMA(today at 6000) and if Nifty sustains above it in the coming sessions then that will be will be strong signal of correction completion.

Lot of more consolidation is required for correction completion and follow up consolidation as well as sustaining above 6000 will be correction completion and fresh rally confirmation therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(04-02-2014)

Lower levels supports between 5934-5950 with consolidation patterns formations as well but lot of more consolidation is required for correction completion. Follow up consolidation and sustaining above 6000 will be strong indication of correction completion.

Post-open Outlook(04-02-2014)

As all the Asian markets are in deep Red after more than 2% down closing of US markets therefore huge gap down opening in Indian markets and trading well below Long Term Trend Decider 6000 which is certainly at stake and only sustaining below it should be watched now for its confirmations because today breaking down is most depressing sentiment led.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(04-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- First 3 hours selling between 6059-6074.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last 3 hours. 
3- Whole day actual trading between 5995-6074

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly 3 hours selling and after that last 3 hours continuous down moves as well as slipping below 6000 where 200-Day EMA also lying therefore emergence of Long Term Trend turning down risk. As last 3 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore first signal of down moves stopping and Pull Back Rally as well. If follow up consolidation develops near about 200-Day EMA then correction completion will be considered after sustaining above 200-Day EMA   

Finally sustaining beyond 200-Day EMA(today at 5999) should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for the confirmations of Long Term trend. 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Feb 03 to Feb 07,2014)

Nifty-EOD Chart (31-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions between 6130-6415.
9- 40 Sessions trading between 6130-6415 between 02-12-2013 and 28-01-2014.
10- 4 Previous sessions trading below the lowest of 40 sessions range
11- 200-Day EMA(today at 6000)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6415 and slipped below the lowest of Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95) with last 4 trading and closing below the lowest of 40 sessions range.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Jan-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling patterns formation between 6086-6097
3- Whole day actual trading between 6068-6097

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As good selling patterns formation at higher levels therefore firstly down moves are expected despite closing near the higher levels of the day and until Nifty will not sustain above the highest(6,097.85) of the day till then next up moves will not be considered.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Intermediate Term and Short Term trends are down but Long Term trend is still up and that will be down after sustaining below its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6000). As market is in downward direction and 40 Sessions trading range has been broken down in previous week therefore last hopes of Bulls are as follows:-  

1- 200-Day EMA(today at 6000)
2- Bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45)

Slipping below above 2 levels can not be ruled out but sustaining below 6000/5972 is must for trend reversal and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions because follow 2 fundamentals will decide next trend and Indian markets will prepare for Long Term trend amid following 2 contradictory news:-

1- Tapering of QE3 by $10 billion per month
2- Narendrea Modi clear victory in Lok Sabha Elections

Narendrea Modi clear victory will mean strong rally and much higher levels above all time high but implications of QE3 tapering has to be seen and understood also.