Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(28-03-2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Mar-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave v of Wave 3 completion(6111.80 on 29-01-2013) 
2- and Wave 4(ABC correction) beginning
3- Wave A(5663.60 on 04-03-2012)
4- Wave A retraced 448.20 points.
5- Wave B(5971.20 on 11-03-2012)
6- Wave B gained 307.60 points
7- Wave C bottom formation at 5612.05 on 26-03-2012
8- Wave C has retraced 359.15 points yet. 
9- Corrective Wave C of Wave 4 continuation.
10- 200 Day EMA at 5671
11- 200 Day DMA at 5624
12- Last 4 sessions closing betwen 200 Day DMA and EMA

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Mar-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 5618-5654

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Short and Intermediate Term Trend are down and Long Term trend is struggling between 200 Day DMA(5624) and EMA(5671) through closing between these 2 Averages for the last 4 sessions. As selling patterns formations in the intraday charts of 27-03-2012 therefore correction continuation is expected.

Detailed analysis of EOD charts have already been updated in following topics. Just click following topic links and understand Indian Stock markets technicals:-

1- Long Term Trend is at stake
2- Correction completion confirmation after sustaining above 5672

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 26-Mar-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 26-Mar-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 26-Mar-2013 2898.54 2360.27 538.27

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 26-Mar-2013 928.57 1052.78 -124.21

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(26-Mar-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio:0.80
Total Options Put Call Ratio:0.80
Nifty P/E Ratio(26-Mar-2013):16.97

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,255
BSE Declines : 1,495
NSE Advances :   664
NSE Declines :   838

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500  CE(Mar)- 161,500(34.96%)
Nifty- 5500  PE(Mar)- 287,300(18.57%)

Nifty- 5600  CE(Mar)- 393,000(45.42%)
Nifty- 5600  PE(Mar)- 819,000(23.45%)

Nifty- 5700  CE(Mar)- 714,650(37.35%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Mar)- 19,000(0.55%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Mar)- -21,300(-0.80%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Mar)-  5,100(0.37%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,704.53(23.11 Points & 0.12%)
Nifty- closed at 5,641.60(7.75 Points & 0.14%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,291.05(-13.15 Points & -0.18%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,085.90(-2.55 Points & -0.08%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-03-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5703
R2 5679
R1 5660
Avg 5636
S1 5617
S2 5593
S3 5574

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5684     Trgt 2
H5 5674     Trgt 1
H4 5664     Long breakout
H3 5652     Go Short
H2 5648
H1 5644
L1 5637
L2 5633
L3 5629     Long
L4 5617     Short Breakout
L5 5607     Trgt 1
L6 5597     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-03-2013

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5698
R2 5678
R1 5659
Avg 5639
S1 5620
S2 5600
S3 5581

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5679     Trgt 2
H5 5670     Trgt 1
H4 5661     Long breakout
H3 5650     Go Short
H2 5647
H1 5643
L1 5636
L2 5632
L3 5629     Long
L4 5618     Short Breakout
L5 5609     Trgt 1
L6 5600     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-03-2013

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11350
R2 11274
R1 11216
Avg 11140
S1 11082
S2 11006
S3 10948

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11293     Trgt 2
H5 11262     Trgt 1
H4 11231     Long breakout
H3 11194     Go Short
H2 11182
H1 11170
L1 11145
L2 11133
L3 11121     Long
L4 11084     Short Breakout
L5 11053     Trgt 1
L6 11022     Trgt 2

NIFTY-Mar Put Option-Buying Trade

NIFTY-Mar Put Option(5600)-Buy-Positional-SL-00-TGT-40-CMP-14(Lalit39)

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-03-2013)

Although recovery from lower levels immediately after opening and continuous up moves also upto 01:30 PM but we told following line at 12:18 PM in Mid-session Outlook(26-03-2013):-

much up moves are not expected

As told same happened and much up moves not seen as well as range bound trading between  5612-5654 with selling indications also in today intraday charts therefore correction continuation is expected.

Mid-session Outlook(26-03-2013)

Following line was told at today 07:48 AM in Long Term Trend is at stake

initial weakness is possible but some recovery from lower levels and intraday volatility can not be ruled out today 

As told same happened and Nifty recovered 35 points from lower levels after weak opening today but up moves are without force therefore much up moves are not expected any decisive up move will not be considered until Nifty will not sustain above 5672/5702.

Nifty(Mar Fut)- Intraday Trading levels , Strategy and Targets for 26-03-2013

 -------------------------------------------------
Buy at or above:-5662
-------------------------------
1st Targets:5678
2nd Targets:5697
3rd Targets:5716
4th Targets:5735
-------------------------------
Stop Loss:5643
-------------------------------------------------
Sell at or below:-5643
-------------------------------
1st Targets:5627
2nd Targets:5609
3rd Targets:5590
4th Targets:5571
-------------------------------
Stop Loss:5662
-------------------------------------------------
Trading guidance:-

1- Trade with Strict Stop Loss
2- Trade along the trend.
3- Cover at any Target or hold for next target with previous target as Stop Loss.
4- May reverse yours trade also according to market with previous level as Stop Loss.
5- Profitable intraday trading strategy in trending and volatile markets.
6- Firstly  go through today Outlooks also for better profits and more accuracy.

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)- Intraday Trading levels,Strategy and Targets for 26-03-2013

-------------------------------------------------
Buy at or above:-11156
-------------------------------
1st Targets:11177
2nd Targets:11203
3rd Targets:11230
4th Targets:11256
-------------------------------
Stop Loss:11130
-------------------------------------------------
Sell at or below:-11130
-------------------------------
1st Targets:11109
2nd Targets:11083
3rd Targets:11056
4th Targets:11030
-------------------------------
Stop Loss:11156
-------------------------------------------------
Trading guidance:-

1- Trade with Strict Stop Loss
2- Trade along the trend.
3- Cover at any Target or hold for next target with previous target as Stop Loss.
4- May reverse yours trade also according to market with previous level as Stop Loss.
5- Profitable intraday trading strategy in trending and volatile markets.

Long Term Trend is at stake
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(26-03-2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Mar-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave 2 completion and Wave 3 beginning(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Wave i(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Wave ii(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Wave iii(5815.35 on 05-10-2012) 
5- Wave iv(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Wave v(6111.80 on 29-01-2013) 
7- Wave 3 completion and Wave 4(ABC correction) beginning
8- Wave A(5663.60 on 04-03-2012)
9- Wave A retraced 448.20 points.
10- Wave B(5971.20 on 11-03-2012)
11- Wave B gained 307.60 points
12- Wave C bottom formation at 5624.40 on 25-03-2012
13- Wave C has retraced 346.80 points yet. 
13- Corrective Wave C of Wave 4 continuation.
14- 200 Day EMA at 5672
15- 200 Day DMA at 5621

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

ABC Waves of Wave 4 continuation and Wave A retraced 448.20 points therefore equal 100% retracement of Wave c can not be ruled out. Wave C correction continuation is expected next target is at:-

5971.20(Wave B)-448.20(Wave A lost)=5523.00 

Next strong support is at 5548.35 which is near 5523.00 therefore these 2 levels will be watched in the coming sessions for on going  Wave 4 correction completion. It should be kept in mind that Nifty has closed 3 consecutive days below 200 Day EMA(5672) therefore high risk on Long Term Trend turning down and Indian markets moving into Bear Grip. As Nifty closed between 200 Day DMA(5621) and EMA(5672) in last 3 sessions therefore sustaining beyond 5621 should also be watched because Long Term Trend is at stake.

As Wave 4 correction after Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations therefore until such big reversal Bullish pattern will not form till then correction will not complete and will remain continued and following retracement levels of wave 3(4770-6111) should be kept in mind:-

13.0%- 5936(Corrected)
23.6%- 5794(Corrected)
27.0%- 5748(Corrected)
38.2%- 5598(Most crucial Levels)
50.0%- 5440(Most crucial Levels)
61.8%- 5282(Most crucial Levels)
70.7%- 5162
76.4%- 5086
78.6%- 5056
88.6%- 4922

Pre-open Outlook(26-03-2013)

Sentiment is depressed today morning because some Asian markets are in Red after negative closing of US markets yesterday therefore initial weakness is possible but some recovery from lower levels and intraday volatility can not be ruled out today and until Nifty will not sustain above 5702 till then any rally will not be considered.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Mar-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Mar-2013 3366.18 2648.29 717.89

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Mar-2013 1089.57 1515.18 -425.61

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-03-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5786
R2 5752
R1 5692
Avg 5658
S1 5598
S2 5564
S3 5504

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5727     Trgt 2
H5 5705     Trgt 1
H4 5684     Long breakout
H3 5658     Go Short
H2 5650
H1 5641
L1 5624
L2 5615
L3 5607     Long
L4 5581     Short Breakout
L5 5560     Trgt 1
L6 5538     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-03-2013

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5781
R2 5749
R1 5697
Avg 5665
S1 5613
S2 5581
S3 5529

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5729     Trgt 2
H5 5710     Trgt 1
H4 5691     Long breakout
H3 5668     Go Short
H2 5660
H1 5652
L1 5637
L2 5629
L3 5621     Long
L4 5598     Short Breakout
L5 5579     Trgt 1
L6 5560     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-03-2013

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11624
R2 11512
R1 11328
Avg 11216
S1 11032
S2 10920
S3 10736

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11441     Trgt 2
H5 11373     Trgt 1
H4 11306     Long breakout
H3 11225     Go Short
H2 11198
H1 11171
L1 11116
L2 11089
L3 11062     Long
L4 10981     Short Breakout
L5 10914     Trgt 1
L6 10846     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(25-03-2013)

When most Asian markets were strong and SGX Nifty was more than 50 points up then also we were not Bullish and following conclusive lines were posted today at 08:55 AM in Correction completion confirmation after sustaining above 5672

positive opening will be seen in Indian markets and sustaining above following resistances will be strong indication of correction completion otherwise Bounce Back or Pull Back Rally will be understood.

When most European markets were trading with good gains after strong opening then also we were not Bullish and told for next moves confirmation through sustaining beyond 5682-5702.

Again fast slipping below 5672 and closing again below it will mean 3rd consecutive closing below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5672) and high risk of Indian markets moving into Bear Grip.

Mid-session Outlook(25-03-2013)

Quiet market after gap up opening between 5682-5702 in last 4 hours,sustaining beyond this range will give confirmation to Wave 4 correction continuation or completion as well as that will give confirmation to survival of Long Term Trend(200 Day EMA-5672).

Correction completion confirmation after sustaining above 5672

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 25 to Mar 28,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Mar-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Wave-3 beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion) 
2- Wave 1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave 2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave i(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
5- Wave ii(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
6- Wave iii(5815.35 on 05-10-2012) 
7- Wave iv(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
8- Wave v(6111.80 on 29-01-2013) 
9- Wave 3 completion
10- Wave A(5663.60 on 04-03-2012)
11- Wave B(5971.20 on 11-03-2012)
12- Wave C bottom formation at 5631.80 on 22-03-2012 
13- Wave 4 correction continuation
14- 200 Day EMA at 5672 on 22-03-2012

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

'ABC' correction continuation after Wave v of Wave 3 completion. As correction continuation after 5 waves completion and its completion confirmation is required yet and following retracement levels of wave 3(4770-6111) should be firstly watched:-

13.0%- 5936(Corrected)
23.6%- 5794(Corrected)
27.0%- 5748(Corrected)
38.2%- 5598(Most crucial Levels)
50.0%- 5440(Most crucial Levels)
61.8%- 5282(Most crucial Levels)
70.7%- 5162
76.4%- 5086
78.6%- 5056
88.6%- 4922

Next supports are as follows:-

1- 5664
2- 5548

Wave C bottom formation at 5631.80 on 22-03-2012 and 27.0% has been completed. Previous 2 sessions closing below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5672) and Wave 4 correction completion confirmation is requird yet therefore sustaining beyond 5672 should be firstly watched in next week for first indication of Wave C of  Wave 4 completion.

Pre-open Outlook(25-03-2013)

Most Asian markets are strong today after US markets closing with good gains last Friday therefore positive opening will be seen in Indian markets and sustaining above following resistances will be strong indication of correction completion otherwise Bounce Back or Pull Back Rally will be understood.

1- 5676-5690
2- 5731-6777
3- 5820-5850

Blog will be updated tomorrow