Post-open Outlook(20-10-2011)

Weakness clearly seen today and Indian markets are under performing global cues as well. 6 hours trading range(5108-5125) was mentioned in two previous topics which was broken out yesterday and broken down today on the back of strong/weaker global cues.

Global cues led high volatility nowadays and Nifty slipped below 5108 today. Next supports are between 5012-5035, as real weakness is clearly visible today therefore its testing is possible and on going rally termination confirmation will be after sustaining below 5012.

Pre-open Outlook(20-10-2011)

Nifty traded 6 hours trading within or near about 5108-5125 in last 2 days.This range was broken out and Nifty traded last one hour above 5125 yesterday. As up move was without force therefore doubts were expressed in both previous outlooks(Pre-Closing and Nifty-Micro Analysis) following line were told:-

1- confirmation is required tomorrow through sustaining above 5125 and crossing first resistance range of 5125-5155.

2- If Nifty fails to sustain above 5125 then  break out and sustaining beyond 6 hours trading range(5108-5125) should be watched for next moves confirmations.

More than 40/50 points up/down opening nowadays on the back of extreme bullish/bearish Global cues. As global cues are weak therefore 40/50 points down opening will be seen today but sustaining below 5108 will be down moves confirmation therefore should be firstly watched today.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 20-10-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(19-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 5076-5085
2- Consolidation between 5095-5102
3- 3 Hours mixed patterns between 5108-5125
4- Last 1 hour up move without force between 5122-5148
5- Whole day trading between 5095-5148

Conclusions

Nifty traded last 3 hours between 5108-5125 with mixed patterns on 17-10-2011 and Nifty again traded 3 hours within same same range today. Firstly trading with mixed patterns today and after that up move in last 1 hour without force between 5122-5148 therefore more requirement of consolidation and up moves confirmation through sustaining above 5125 and minimum crossing first resistance range of 5125-5155 tomorrow or in the coming sessions.

Resistances at higher levels are as follows;-

1- Selling between 5135-5155(on 17-10-2011)
2- Old Resistance 5145-5220

Resistances at higher levels therefore follow up buying and consolidation is must for crossing above resistances and sustaining above last 50 sessions trading range highest(5229)

Firstly watch sustaining above 5125 and that will be first strong signal of blasting rally beginning above 5229. If Nifty fails to sustain above 5125 then  break out and sustaining beyond 6 hours trading range(5108-5125) should be watched for next moves confirmations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 19-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 19-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 19-Oct-2011 1768.89 1783.34 -14.45

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 19-Oct-2011 763.47 857.93 -94.46

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(19-Oct-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle after gap up opening.
2- All the Indices closed in Green and most with good gains.
3- Closing at the top of on going rally.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.16
Nifty P/E Ratio(19-Oct-2011): 18.36

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1664
BSE DECLINES : 1151
NSE ADVANCES :  949
NSE DECLINES :  459

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Oct)- -1007750(-30.08)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Oct)- +521500(+8.91%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Oct)- -448900(-8.84%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Oct)- +2488050(+87.20%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Oct)- +485400(+7.29%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Oct)- +606350(+55.79%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,138.05(+101.65 Points & +2.02%)
Sensex- closed at 17,085.34(+337.05 Points & +2.01% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,142.55(+94.70 Points & +1.34%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,898.66(+44.28 Points & +0.65%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5239
R2 5193
R1 5166
Avg 5120
S1 5093
S2 5047
S3 5020

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5212     Trgt 2
H5 5196     Trgt 1
H4 5179     Long breakout
H3 5159     Go Short
H2 5152
H1 5145
L1 5132
L2 5125
L3 5118     Long
L4 5098     Short Breakout
L5 5081     Trgt 1
L6 5065     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5267
R2 5212
R1 5180
Avg 5125
S1 5093
S2 5038
S3 5006

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5237     Trgt 2
H5 5217     Trgt 1
H4 5196     Long breakout
H3 5172     Go Short
H2 5164
H1 5156
L1 5141
L2 5133
L3 5125     Long
L4 5101     Short Breakout
L5 5080     Trgt 1
L6 5060     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 10180
R2 10028
R1 9942
Avg 9790
S1 9704
S2 9552
S3 9466

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10099     Trgt 2
H5 10043     Trgt 1
H4  9986     Long breakout
H3  9921     Go Short
H2  9899
H1  9877
L1  9834
L2  9812
L3  9790    Long
L4  9725    Short Breakout
L5  9668    Trgt 1
L6  9612    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(1910-2011)

Nifty traded last 3 hours between 5108-5125 with mixed patterns on  on 17-10-2011 and it was mentioned on same day. Nifty again traded within or near about same range for more than 3 hours and it was again mentioned in Mid-session Outlook today.

6 hours trading within or near about 5108-5125 and Nifty moved above 5125 and also trading above for the last half hour but lacking force therefore confirmation is required tomorrow through sustaining above 5125 and crossing first resistance range of 5125-5155.

Resistances at higher levels are as follows;-

1- Selling between 5135-5155(on 17-10-2011)
2- Old Resistance 5145-5220

Finally sustaining above 5125 will mean high possibility of blasting rally.

Mid-session Outlook(1910-2011)

Nifty traded 3 hours with mixed intraday patterns between 5108-5125 on 17-Oct-2011 and Nifty is again trading within or near about this range for the last 90 minutes. Selling and resistances above this range and minor supports also below this range. Sustaining beyond this range will be first strong indication next moves beginning therefore

Firstly watch sustaining beyond 5108-5125 for next moves confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(1910-2011)

Strong opening,trading near today highs but sentiment turned heated therefore buying should be done after some intraday correction.

Technical Analysis and Research For 19-10-2011

Post-open Outlook(1910-2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart(18-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 49 Sessions range bound market between 4720-5229
2- Gap of resistance 18-10-2011(5058-5085)
3- 3 Days range bound market within 5070-5155

Conclusions

Indian markets consolidated at lower levels yesterday and it was updated during trading hours yesterday in Pre-Closing Outlook and following lines were told:-

Although deep Red closing today but consolidation signals also in today intraday patterns therefore view should be bearish after sustaining below 5012.

Following lines were told yesterday in Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 19-10-2011

As whole day consolidation patterns today therefore positive market as well as up moves continuation expected tomorrow.

Gap up opening today and Nifty is trading within mentioned 3 Days range bound market of 5070-5155 in which mixed patterns were seen between 13th oct to 17th oct 2011.

Follow up buying,up moves and positive market expected today.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 19-10-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(18-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5030-5057
2- Consolidation between 5011-5029
3- Whole day trading between 5011-5057

Conclusions

Gap down opening and whole day deep Red today trading was due to crashing Global markets cues therefore finally sustaining point of market will decide next trend. Although selling seen at higher levels but support also seen at lower levels today.

8 Days rally from the bottom of 49 sessions range lowest(4728) with 3 days range bound market with mixed intraday patterns within 5070-5155. As lower levels support today and and whole day intraday consolidation patterns also seen therefore sustaining above today high(5057) will be confirmation of 8 days corrction and its completion also today.

Today down moves were not the result of higher levels pure selling but depressing global cues therefore follow up buying in the coming sessions will mean up moves to test 8 days rally highest.

As whole day consolidation patterns today therefore positive market as well as up moves continuation expected tomorrow.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 18-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 18-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 18-Oct-2011 1821.6 2106.79 -285.19

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 18-Oct-2011 830.19 963.08 -132.89

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(18-Oct-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing.
2- Black Candle.
3- All the Indiced in Red.
4- Intraday support seen at lower levels today.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.15
Nifty P/E Ratio(18-Oct-2011): 18.00

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 896
BSE DECLINES : 1891
NSE ADVANCES :  344
NSE DECLINES : 1077

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Oct)- +703750(+25.53%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Oct)- -13200(-0.21%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Oct)- +1100(+0.02%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Oct)- -1185600(-29.40%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,037.50(-80.75 Points & -1.58%)
Sensex- closed at 16,748.29(-276.80 Points & -1.63% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,047.65(-91.90 Points & -1.29%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,854.38(-68.59 Points & -0.99%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5105
R2 5081
R1 5059
Avg 5035
S1 5013
S2 4989
S3 4967

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5083     Trgt 2
H5 5072     Trgt 1
H4 5062     Long breakout
H3 5049     Go Short
H2 5045
H1 5041
L1 5032
L2 5028
L3 5024     Long
L4 5011     Short Breakout
L5 5001     Trgt 1
L6 4990     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5117
R2 5090
R1 5067
Avg 5040
S1 5017
S2 4990
S3 4967

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5094     Trgt 2
H5 5082     Trgt 1
H4 5071     Long breakout
H3 5057     Go Short
H2 5053
H1 5048
L1 5039
L2 5034
L3 5030     Long
L4 5016     Short Breakout
L5 5005     Trgt 1
L6 4993     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 9886
R2 9785
R1 9682
Avg 9581
S1 9478
S2 9377
S3 9274

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9785     Trgt 2
H5 9738     Trgt 1
H4 9691     Long breakout
H3 9635     Go Short
H2 9616
H1 9597
L1 9560
L2 9541
L3 9522     Long
L4 9466     Short Breakout
L5 9419     Trgt 1
L6 9372     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(18-10-2011)

Crashed global cues led down moves today with intraday selling patterns between 5030-5045 and supports at lower levels also. Intraday positions are not one sided today and Nifty will again trade near about today trading range(5012-5045) therefore its break out will be next moves confirmation.

Although deep Red closing today but consolidation signals also in today intraday patterns therefore view should be bearish after sustaining below 5012.