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Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-03-2011
R3 5782
R2 5745
R1 5716
Avg 5679
S1 5650
S2 5613
S3 5584
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5753 Trgt 2
H5 5738 Trgt 1
H4 5723 Long breakout
H3 5705 Go Short
H2 5699
H1 5693
L1 5680
L2 5674
L3 5668 Long
L4 5650 Short Breakout
L5 5635 Trgt 1
L6 5620 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-03-2011
R3 5797
R2 5763
R1 5731
Avg 5697
S1 5665
S2 5631
S3 5599
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5765 Trgt 2
H5 5750 Trgt 1
H4 5735 Long breakout
H3 5717 Go Short
H2 5711
H1 5705
L1 5692
L2 5686
L3 5680 Long
L4 5662 Short Breakout
L5 5647 Trgt 1
L6 5632 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-03-2011
R3 11994
R2 11818
R1 11688
Avg 11512
S1 11382
S2 11206
S3 11076
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11871 Trgt 2
H5 11799 Trgt 1
H4 11727 Long breakout
H3 11643 Go Short
H2 11615
H1 11587
L1 11530
L2 11502
L3 11474 Long
L4 11390 Short Breakout
L5 11318 Trgt 1
L6 11246 Trgt 2
Mid-session Outlook(28-03-2011)
Indian markets are out performing Asian Markets and trading positive while all other Asian markets closed in Red today. It is the strength of rally that intraday correction seen at higher levels only and market could not dip despite weaker Asian cues.
Indian markets are positive and rally will remain continued but today intraday charts are suggesting possibility of a dip therefore little cautious approach is required.
Indian markets are positive and rally will remain continued but today intraday charts are suggesting possibility of a dip therefore little cautious approach is required.
Rally after Very Short Term Correction
Weekly Analysis- 28-03-2011 to 01-04-2011
Nifty remained Range bound 40 days within 5178-5608 and forceful break out with upward gap seen last Friday. Nifty survived within menti oned range even after worst national and international news therefore this range is one of the most strong support and its breaking down is not possible in the coming months.
Immediate supports are as follows
1- 1st 2 hours trading range of 25-03-3011- 5561-5581
2- 2nd Gap on 25-03-3011-5529-5561
3- 1st Gap on 24-03-3011-5485-5496
4- Trading range of 24-03-3011- 5500-5520
1-Break Out in EOD Chart
Wave-5 begun at 5178 on 11-02-2011 and its confirmation came on 25-03-2011 after following developments:-
1- 200-Day EMA crossed forcefully
2- Long term and Intermediate term trends turned up after 2 months today.
3- 2 months range broken out and proved 2 months consolidations and 5178-5600 established strong support.
4- As correction completion confirmations therefore Indian markets are prepared for a strong rally.
5- 4th wave completion at 5178 therefore Wave-5 commencement confirmation also
2- Nifty Waves Structure Chart
Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart
Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis
Bullish points
1- Nifty crossed above all the averages.
2- MACD upward intersected average line and given rally confirmation.
3- ROC and RSI are above equalibrium line,moving up and below overbought line.
Bearish points
1- Nifty moved above upper Band of Bollinger Band therefore indicating stabilising here or very short term down move possibility.
2- Slow Stochastic is near overbought line therefore indicating little more upside possibility.
3- William %R is above overbought line therefore indicating down side possibility but this indicator remains too much time in overbought zone therefore when other indicators will also suggest for bearish moves then it will be down otherwise correction can be expected after its turning overbought.
Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis
Very short term indicators are little overbought therefore indicating very short term intraday or 1/2 days correction only otherwise rally commencement confirmations.
Conclusions
Sentiment heated and very short term indicators are in over bought zone therefore very short term correction is possible in the begining of week for cooling of indicators and sentiment. Slipping and moving below 5600 again possibility can not be ruled out but Nifty will not sustain below 200-Say EMA expected that rally will remain continued after expected correction. Correction will depend on news flow and heat of sentiment on Monday and if global cues does not show any weakness then then correction at higher levels or within range bound moves may also be seen in the begining of week.
5th Wave is confirm and finally rally will remain continued. Multiple resistances between 5700-5900 therefore rally may be slow but will remain contined in the coming week and weekly closing will be positive.
Nifty remained Range bound 40 days within 5178-5608 and forceful break out with upward gap seen last Friday. Nifty survived within menti oned range even after worst national and international news therefore this range is one of the most strong support and its breaking down is not possible in the coming months.
Immediate supports are as follows
1- 1st 2 hours trading range of 25-03-3011- 5561-5581
2- 2nd Gap on 25-03-3011-5529-5561
3- 1st Gap on 24-03-3011-5485-5496
4- Trading range of 24-03-3011- 5500-5520
1-Break Out in EOD Chart
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 200-Day EMA crossed forcefully
2- Long term and Intermediate term trends turned up after 2 months today.
3- 2 months range broken out and proved 2 months consolidations and 5178-5600 established strong support.
4- As correction completion confirmations therefore Indian markets are prepared for a strong rally.
5- 4th wave completion at 5178 therefore Wave-5 commencement confirmation also
2- Nifty Waves Structure Chart
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis
Bullish points
1- Nifty crossed above all the averages.
2- MACD upward intersected average line and given rally confirmation.
3- ROC and RSI are above equalibrium line,moving up and below overbought line.
Bearish points
1- Nifty moved above upper Band of Bollinger Band therefore indicating stabilising here or very short term down move possibility.
2- Slow Stochastic is near overbought line therefore indicating little more upside possibility.
3- William %R is above overbought line therefore indicating down side possibility but this indicator remains too much time in overbought zone therefore when other indicators will also suggest for bearish moves then it will be down otherwise correction can be expected after its turning overbought.
Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis
Very short term indicators are little overbought therefore indicating very short term intraday or 1/2 days correction only otherwise rally commencement confirmations.
Conclusions
Sentiment heated and very short term indicators are in over bought zone therefore very short term correction is possible in the begining of week for cooling of indicators and sentiment. Slipping and moving below 5600 again possibility can not be ruled out but Nifty will not sustain below 200-Say EMA expected that rally will remain continued after expected correction. Correction will depend on news flow and heat of sentiment on Monday and if global cues does not show any weakness then then correction at higher levels or within range bound moves may also be seen in the begining of week.
5th Wave is confirm and finally rally will remain continued. Multiple resistances between 5700-5900 therefore rally may be slow but will remain contined in the coming week and weekly closing will be positive.
Nifty Waves Structure
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Wave-5 begun at 5178 on 11-02-2011 and its confirmation came on 25-03-2011 after following developments:-
1- 200-Day EMA crossed forcefully
2- Long term and Intermediate term trends turned up after 2 months today.
3- 2 months range broken out and proved 2 months consolidations and 5178-5600 established strong support.
4- As correction completion confirmations therefore Indian markets are prepared for a strong rally.
5- 4th wave completion at 5178 therefore Wave-5 commencement confirmation also
5900 testing possibility has been told in Pre-Open Outlook on 25-03-2011 and next targets will be disclosed at proper time.
Post-closing Report(25-03-2011) & Monday Outlook
Trend reversal after forceful Break out today and it was expected also today therefore following lines were told in the Blog in Pre-Open Market Outlook today:-
"Nifty sustaining above 5600 will mean worst is over and then fast rally toward 5900 will be seen after completion of correction."
Intraday charts of today clearly told for rally therefore following lines were told in the Blog at 11:46AM today:-
"1st two hours Intra Day charts are suggesting consolidations and possibility of rally above 5600 turns higher."
Following bullish moves and confirmations seen today;-
1- 2 months range broken out
2- 200-Day EMA crossed forcefully
3- Long term and Intermediate term trends turned up after 2 months today.
4- The correction which started from Diwali-2010,has been completed today.
5- Today rally gave confirmation to 5th Wave which started on 11-02-2011 from 5178.
2 Months Range & Pennant Break Out Chart:-
Nifty F&O data of today as follows
Put Call Ratio- 1.05
Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5500 CE(31MAR2011)- -1289100(--23.62%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(31MAR2011)- +570950(+8.08%)
Nifty- 5600 CE(31MAR2011)- -1629950(-25.85%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(31MAR2011)- +4256850(+168.59%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(31MAR2011)- -303950(-4.39%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(31MAR2011)- +2583700(549.78%)
Today Closing
Sensex- closed at 18,815.64(+464.90 Points & +2.53% )
Nifty- closed at 5654.25(+131.85 Points & +2.39%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7824.15(+76.95 Points & +0.99%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,001.63(+80.79 Points & +1.02%)
Monday(28-03-2011) Outlook
Indian markets bullish developments have been discussed above. Next immediate multiple resistances are between 5680-5900 and Indian markets have to consolidate between this range but today break out after 2 months consolidations is confirmation of correction completion. Fresh Rally begining and Wave 5 got confirmations today.
Sentiment will be heated therefore profit booking possibility can not be ruled out but rally will remain continued after fresh consolidations. 21st March 2011 started rally minimum target is 5911 and minor intraday correction is also possible in the process of consolidation and up moves may be slow but up trend will remain intact.
"Nifty sustaining above 5600 will mean worst is over and then fast rally toward 5900 will be seen after completion of correction."
Intraday charts of today clearly told for rally therefore following lines were told in the Blog at 11:46AM today:-
"1st two hours Intra Day charts are suggesting consolidations and possibility of rally above 5600 turns higher."
Following bullish moves and confirmations seen today;-
1- 2 months range broken out
2- 200-Day EMA crossed forcefully
3- Long term and Intermediate term trends turned up after 2 months today.
4- The correction which started from Diwali-2010,has been completed today.
5- Today rally gave confirmation to 5th Wave which started on 11-02-2011 from 5178.
2 Months Range & Pennant Break Out Chart:-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Put Call Ratio- 1.05
Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5500 CE(31MAR2011)- -1289100(--23.62%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(31MAR2011)- +570950(+8.08%)
Nifty- 5600 CE(31MAR2011)- -1629950(-25.85%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(31MAR2011)- +4256850(+168.59%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(31MAR2011)- -303950(-4.39%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(31MAR2011)- +2583700(549.78%)
Today Closing
Sensex- closed at 18,815.64(+464.90 Points & +2.53% )
Nifty- closed at 5654.25(+131.85 Points & +2.39%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7824.15(+76.95 Points & +0.99%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,001.63(+80.79 Points & +1.02%)
Monday(28-03-2011) Outlook
Indian markets bullish developments have been discussed above. Next immediate multiple resistances are between 5680-5900 and Indian markets have to consolidate between this range but today break out after 2 months consolidations is confirmation of correction completion. Fresh Rally begining and Wave 5 got confirmations today.
Sentiment will be heated therefore profit booking possibility can not be ruled out but rally will remain continued after fresh consolidations. 21st March 2011 started rally minimum target is 5911 and minor intraday correction is also possible in the process of consolidation and up moves may be slow but up trend will remain intact.
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-03-2011
R3 5801
R2 5734
R1 5694
Avg 5627
S1 5587
S2 5520
S3 5480
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5762 Trgt 2
H5 5737 Trgt 1
H4 5712 Long breakout
H3 5683 Go Short
H2 5673
H1 5663
L1 5644
L2 5634
L3 5624 Long
L4 5595 Short Breakout
L5 5570 Trgt 1
L6 5545 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-03-2011
R3 5847
R2 5770
R1 5725
Avg 5648
S1 5603
S2 5526
S3 5481
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5804 Trgt 2
H5 5775 Trgt 1
H4 5747 Long breakout
H3 5713 Go Short
H2 5702
H1 5691
L1 5668
L2 5657
L3 5646 Long
L4 5612 Short Breakout
L5 5584 Trgt 1
L6 5555 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-03-2011
R3 11918
R2 11706
R1 11578
Avg 11366
S1 11238
S2 11026
S3 10898
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11800 Trgt 2
H5 11719 Trgt 1
H4 11638 Long breakout
H3 11544 Go Short
H2 11513
H1 11482
L1 11419
L2 11388
L3 11357 Long
L4 11264 Short Breakout
L5 11182 Trgt 1
L6 11101 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(28-03-2011 to 01-04-2011)
R3 6083
R2 5875
R1 5764
Avg 5556
S1 5445
S2 5237
S3 5126
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 5991 Trgt 2
H5 5910 Trgt 1
H4 5829 Long breakout
H3 5741 Go Short
H2 5712
H1 5683
L1 5624
L2 5595
L3 5566 Long
L4 5478 Short Breakout
L5 5397 Trgt 1
L6 5316. Trgt 2
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Mar-2011
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Pre-closing Outlook(25-03-2011)
Following line was told in Pre-Open Market Outlook today
Nifty sustaining above 5600 will mean worst is over and then fast rally toward 5900 will be seen after completion of correction.
Following line was told in Pre-Open Market Outlook today
5580 was told trend decider and Nifty is trading a little below since opening today. 1st two hours Intra Day charts are suggesting consolidations and possibility of rally above 5600 turns higher.
Conclusions-
1- Correction started from Diwali 2010.
2- Correction has been completed in 40 sessions range bound moves.
3- Rally started today toward minimum 5900.
(Detailed analysis will be posted in "Post-closing Report(25-03-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook" today and in "weekly" in next 2 days)
Mid-session Outlook-2(25-03-2011)
When Nifty was trading below 5580 then following line was told today:-
1st two hours Intra Day charts are suggesting consolidations and possibility of rally above 5600 turns higher.
Intraday high formed at 5625.25 today
Break out and rally expected above 5600 now.
Mid-session Outlook(25-03-2011)
5580 was told trend decider and Nifty is trading a little below since opening today. 1st two hours Intra Day charts are suggesting consolidations and possibility of rally above 5600 turns higher.
Next rally confirmation point left is only crossing and sustaining above 5580.
Next rally confirmation point left is only crossing and sustaining above 5580.
5580 is Strong Rally Decider
Pre-Open Market Outlook(25-03-2011)
Technical positions,Supports,Resistances,F&O data and levels have already been discussed in "Post-closing Report(24-03-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook" yesterday therefore not being repeated today.
US markets closed with good gains yesterday and all the Asian markets are positive today morning,sentiment strong therefore positive opening and Nifty will first hover around 5550 and in the begining. Nifty will trade in last resistance range(5540-5580) and today follow up buying and consolidation will give confirmation to yesterday buying and consolidation.
Following lines were told in yesterday Pre-Open Outlook that
"Pennant formation in EOD chart and its break out will give first strong indication of next Indian markets moves and confirmation points will be sustaining beyong 5400 or 5600."
1- Pennant up side break out in EOD Chart:-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Pennant up side break out seen yesterday and if Nifty sustains above trend line then it will be strong indication of rally and then market above 5600 will be expected.
Indian markets will participate Global markets rally after gap up opening and will trade in last resistance range today. Nifty retraced 2 times from 5600 in last 2 months therefore today intraday consolidation is must. Nifty sustaining above 5600 will mean worst is over and then fast rally toward 5900 will be seen after completion of correction.
Bullish sentiment is high and only cautious approach is required at the top of last 2 months range. Today consolidation and sustaining above 5580 will pave the way of Indian mrkets strong rally toward minimum 5900.
Post-closing Report(24-03-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook
Gap up opening,whole day trading within resistance range(5500-5535) and closing near the top of the day today. Nifty intraday charts of today is indicating some selling signals and pivotal stocks are showing also mixed patterns. I mean to say that some stocks are showing clear buying formations and some are showing selling formations also.
Nifty F&O data of today as follows
Put Call Ratio- 1.17
Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5500 CE(31MAR2011)- -163600(-2.65%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(31MAR2011)- +1311650(+22.07%)
Nifty- 5600 CE(31MAR2011)- -251400(-3.7300%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(31MAR2011)- +990100(+59.61%)
Today Closing
Sensex- closed at 18350.74(+144.58 Points & +0.79% )
Nifty- closed at 5522.40(+42.15 Points & +0.77%%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,747.20(+46.10 Points & +0.60%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7868.13(+52.71 Points & +0.67%)
Nifty Intra Day Chart of Today:-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Immediate Resistances are as follows:-
1- 5500-5535
2- 5540-5580
It seems that global markets have discounted all the bad news of last one month and started to recover and Indian markets are also following suit. Intraday charts of today are showing mixed patterns and Nifty PUT options positions building today are suggesting follow up buying and more consolidations requirements for sustained up moves because next and strong resistance range is just above today trading range.
Nifty has retraced from 5600 earlier and complete consolidations require in the coming sessions between 5500-5580 for sustained rally above 5600. Let clear signals develop and intraday charts show buying patterns then moves above 5600 will get confirmations.
Next move indication range is 5500-5580. Just watch sustaining beyond this range for next moves confirmations.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 24-Mar-2011
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