H5 5637 Trgt 1
H4 5610 Long breakout
H3 5577 Go Short
H2 5566
H1 5555
L1 5533
L2 5522
L3 5511 Long
L4 5478 Short Breakout
L5 5450 Trgt 1
L6 5422 Trgt 2
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 04-03-2011
H5 5637 Trgt 1
H4 5610 Long breakout
H3 5577 Go Short
H2 5566
H1 5555
L1 5533
L2 5522
L3 5511 Long
L4 5478 Short Breakout
L5 5450 Trgt 1
L6 5422 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 04-03-2011
H5 11211 Trgt 1
H4 11132 Long breakout
H3 11039 Go Short
H2 11008
H1 10977
L1 10916
L2 10885
L3 10854 Long
L4 10761 Short Breakout
L5 10682 Trgt 1
L6 10603 Trgt 2
Pre-closing outlook(03-03-2011)
When sentiment was most heated after Libyan peace agreement news then at that time following conclusive line was told in Mid-session outlook today:-
"Just watch sustaining above 5520 and if Nifty sustains above 5520 today then fresh rally will resume in Indian stock markets"
Nifty could not sustain above 5520 and slipped fast to 5481. News based huge voltality and technical positions reverses fast in such voltality.Selling within 5540-5570 and buying within 5470-5000 today therefore Nifty will trade within today range(5470-5595) in the coming sessions and break out of today range will give confirmation to next decisive moves in Indian markets.
Nifty trading near 5520 at this moment and firstly watch its sustaining side(above or below) of 5520 and then break out of today range because that will give confirmation to:-
1- Final reaction of Indian market on Budget 2011-12
2- Libyan problem final impact on Indian markets.
Mid-session outlook(03-03-2011)
Gaddafi accepted peace plan to end crisis in LIbya.Gaddafi Arab League Pres agrees on peace plan.
Nifty crossed and sustaining above 5520 after news announcement. Just watch sustaining above 5520 and if Nifty sustains above 5520 roday then fresh rally will resume in Indian stock markets.
Pre-Open Market Outlook(03-03-2011)
1- Nifty crossed and closed above upper line of falling channel.
2- Nifty got support near strong support at 5210.
3- Higher bottom formationwith intraday consolidation patterns last Friday.
4- MACD moved up after getting support at average line in MACD oscillator
Bullish Signals in EOD chart:-
Long term trend is down,short term is up,intermediate term is side ways,trend decider is 5520 and upmove confirmation point is sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 5603). Rally started from 5177 showed bullish signals and those are shown in above chart but sustainibility above 5520 is key and will give confirmation to next up moves in Indian markets.
Crude price hike and Libyan internal disturbance are immediate concern for global stock markets therefore all correctly sharply yesterday,Indian markets were closed and will react through Red zone trading today. Indian markets showed posive mood after Budget last Monday will react on above points and expected petroleum price hike today.
It will be fair to watch intraday patterns today and then decide and tell for next Indian markets otherwise will be guessing only.
Today expected first range is 5435-5470 and break out of this range will give next move confirmation. Up move confirmation point is 5520 and be cautious below 5435.
Trading Levels for 03-03-2011
R3 5739
R2 5636
R1 5579
Avg 5476
S1 5419
S2 5316
S3 5259
Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 03-03-2011
R3 5787
R2 5671
R1 5607
Avg 5491
S1 5427
S2 5311
S3 5247
Bank Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 03-03-2011
R3 11487
R2 11214
R1 11065
Avg 10792
S1 10643
S2 10370
S3 10221
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy for 03-03-2011
H5 5648 Trgt 1
H4 5610 Long breakout
H3 5566 Go Short
H2 5551
H1 5536
L1 5507
L2 5492
L3 5478 Long
L4 5434 Short Breakout
L5 5395 Trgt 1
L6 5357 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 03-03-2011
H5 5685 Trgt 1
H4 5642 Long breakout
H3 5592 Go Short
H2 5576
H1 5559
L1 5526
L2 5510
L3 5493 Long
L4 5444 Short Breakout
L5 5400 Trgt 1
L6 5357 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 03-03-2011
H5 11251 Trgt 1
H4 11148 Long breakout
H3 11032 Go Short
H2 10993
H1 10954
L1 10877
L2 10838
L3 10799 Long
L4 10683 Short Breakout
L5 10581 Trgt 1
L6 10478 Trgt 2
Pre-closing outlook(01-03-2011)
Nifty is hovering around 5500 for the last 1 hour and facing crucial resistance at 5520. As intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns near 5500 therefore 5520 crossing expected within couple of sessions.
Mid-session outlook(01-03-2011)
Although Indian markets loose all intraday gains yesterday but following lines were told in Pre-open outlook today:-
"As consolidation patterns yesterday and repeation today will mean begining of upmove confirmation and it is expected also"
Nifty closed at day's lowest at 5533.25 yesterday but I told following line in Pre-open outlook today:-
"Finally moves above 5400 and positive closing expected today"
Whatsoever is being happened during market hours all that were told before its opening. Nifty is trading 130 points up at 5463 and sustaining above 5520 will be confirmation strong rally.
Pre-Open Market Outlook(01-03-2011)
1-"It is very much clear that Indian markets are not prepared for immediate decisive moves after Budget"
2-"next trend confirmation range of post Budget big move is 5235-5520"
3-"Up moves will be slow because for every rise consolidation requires at every stage"
As Indian markets were not prepared for any side decisive moves therefore in this process traded whole day within mentioned range and lost all intraday gains, yesterday candle was 'Bearish Gravestone Doji'. Same views for today and next move preperation process will remain continued within mentioned range.
Although Indian markets lost whole intraday gains and 'Bearish Gravestone Doji' yesterday but intraday patterns are suggesting consolidation on Budget day and it is up moves signal. Sustaining above 5520 will be strong upmove confirmation.
Nifty will trade first within 5350-5400 after positive opening today, break out and sustaining beyond will be next immediate move confirmation. As consolidation patterns yesterday and repeation today will mean begining of upmove confirmation and it is expected also.
Finally moves above 5400 and positive closing expected today
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy for 01-03-2011
H5 5464 Trgt 1
H4 5425 Long breakout
H3 5379 Go Short
H2 5363
H1 5348
L1 5317
L2 5302
L3 5286 Long
L4 5240 Short Breakout
L5 5201 Trgt 1
L6 5163 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 01-03-2011
H5 5484 Trgt 1
H4 5441 Long breakout
H3 5389 Go Short
H2 5372
H1 5355
L1 5320
L2 5303
L3 5286 Long
L4 5234 Short Breakout
L5 5191 Trgt 1
L6 5149 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 01-03-2011
H5 10776 Trgt 1
H4 10678 Long breakout
H3 10560 Go Short
H2 10521
H1 10482
L1 10403
L2 10364
L3 10325 Long
L4 10207 Short Breakout
L5 10109 Trgt 1
L6 10012 Trgt 2
Trading Levels for 01-03-2011
R3 5606
R2 5541
R1 5437
Avg 5372
S1 5268
S2 5203
S3 5099
Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 01-03-2011
R3 5642
R2 5570
R1 5454
Avg 5382
S1 5266
S2 5194
S3 5078
Bank Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 01-03-2011
R3 11132
R2 10965
R1 10704
Avg 10537
S1 10276
S2 10109
S3 9848
Pre-closing outlook(28-02-2011)
Post Budget killing voltality and Nifty traded within mentioned resistance range(5460-5520) and retraced from 5477. Following lines were told for mentioned resistance range:-
1- 5460-5520(Strong resistance and Trend Decider)
Budget is positive but market moves on its own technicals. Today markets is ruled by huge voltality and next trend will be decided by sustaining beyond and for this following lines were told in Pre-open outlook today and repeating it after market today:-
"Voltality may be high and next trend confirmation range of post Budget big move is 5235-5520"
Mid-session outlook(28-02-2011)
Positive Budget and Nifty trading and sustaining above 5375 after its announcement.
Pre Budget 2011-12 Technical Analysis
Weekly Analysis- 28-02-2011 to 04-03-2011
All trends are down and rally started from 5177 has been fused below 200-Day EMA after eruption of Libyan internal problems in last week. Multiple resistances are above 5600 but below it strong resistance range also below 5520 and Indian market requires complete consolidation process to cross 5520. Next crucial supoport near 5200 and slipping below it will mean ceratin testing os levels below 5000.
1- Multiple Resistances and only one Support Chart
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
2-10 Days Intraday Chart
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
Conclusion from above 2 charts analysis:-
Next support,resistances and next trend deciding ranges are as follows:-
1- 4460-5520(Strong resistance and Trend Decider)
2- 5350-5375(Testing possible in expectation of good budget)
3- 5235-5275(Support and Testing possible in Buget Voltality)
4- 5275-5460(Next trend deciding range)
5- Trading at Falling Channel Upper Line
3-Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
Conclusion from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis:-
1-Averages- All the averages(8,21,55,200) are sliding and Nifty is trading below all of them. It is most bearish situation and indicating bounce back possibility only.
2-Bollinger Band- Lower band is rising and upper band is sliding.Nifty is trading near the lower band therefore confirming complete weakness and signalling relief rally possibility to recover from oversold situation.
3- MACD- MACD line is sliding,Average line is rising and both lines are in kissing position in negative zone therefore not indicating immediate next move. Downward intersection of average line will give down move confirmation and reversing to upside will give fresh upmove confirmation. No indication from this important indicator.
4-ROC- Reversing down and resting at zero line therefore not showing any immediate move indication.
5-RSI- Reversing down and resting at 50(equilibrium line) therefore not showing any immediate move indication.
6-Slow Stochastic- Reversing down and resting at 30(above oversold line) therefore not showing any immediate move indication.
7-William %R- Reversing down and resting at 20(above oversold line) therefore not showing any immediate move indication.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
All the indicators are quiet and not showing any side moves. As indicators are near oversold zone therefore indicating short term bounce back possibility only. Market is moving down in falling channel and Nifty is trading at falling channel Upper Line for the last 2 days therefore not showing any side move confirmation.
4-Intraday chart of 25-02-2011 Chart:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
4460-5520 is strong resistance range and 5235-5275 is minor support range because intraday chart of 25-02-2011 is showing consolidation pattern and candle was Bullish Hammer. As strong resistances are at higher levels therefore Indian markets require complete consolidation to cross and sustain above 5520 and until it will not happen today till then Nifty will not cross 5520 despite whatsoever may be Budget proposals today.
Minor support within 5235-5275 and market require selling(distribution intraday patterns) before and during budget speech time and its happening will mean immediate sharp down moves below 5235 during or immediate after Budget speech.
It is very much clear that Indian markets are not prepared for immediate decisive moves after Budget. Any negative development will mean sharp down moves in Indian markets because "Bear is well settled to drag down Indian markets" and supports at lower levels(near 5200) are not strong. Positive development will mean firstly consolidation within 5350-5375 and then crossing and sustaining above 5375.
As per my view First today trading range will be 5285-5375 and forceful crossing or sustaining beyond will be strong indication of that side move. Voltality may be high and next trend confirmation range of post Budget big move is 5235-5520. Intraday chart formation before and during Budget hours will give first strong indication of post budget Indian markets and crossing of above levels will give confirmations.
Market is in Bearish mode and Bear is well settled to drag down Indian markets but Confirmation from break out of above menioned levels is must after last Friday consolidation pattern and Bullish Hammer candle. Whole week market will be toward the break out direction of 5275-5460.
Up moves will be slow because for every rise consolidation requires at every stage. As support at lower level is weak and below that next strong supports are at much lower levels therefore down moves may be in free fall mode also.
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy for 28-02-2011
H6 5410 Trgt 2
H5 5385 Trgt 1
H4 5361 Long breakout
H3 5332 Go Short
H2 5322
H1 5312
L1 5293
L2 5283
L3 5273 Long
L4 5244 Short Breakout
L5 5220 Trgt 1
L6 5195 Trgt 2
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