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Pull Back Rally will continue in next week

Technical Analysis,Research and Weekly Outlook(Nov 28 to Dec 02,2011)

Waves Structure in Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Nov-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-4 is continued
2- Falling Channel Correction

Trend reversal broadening pattern in Nifty-EOD Chart(25-Nov-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling Trendline 
2- Trend reversal broadening pattern at the bottom.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Nov 21 to Nov 25,2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 5 sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 4820-4870
2- Selling between 4745-4767 
3- Support between 4644-4678

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(25-dec-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 4696-4720
2- Selling between 4745-4767
3- Whole day trading between 4694-4767

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Mixed intraday patterns today. As soon as consolidation emerged thwn it was told within 1st hour in Post-open Outlook before the commencement of intraday up moves and when selling developed then it was also updated befote the beginning of down moves within 3 hours in Mid-session Outlook.

Sharp down moves seen after 1:45 PM but intraday consolidation patterns also seen within 4696-4715 in last one hour. As intraday support at lower levels seen in the beginning and at the closure of market therefore sustaining beyond 4696-4720 should be firstly watched next Monday for next moves commencement confirmations.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

All the trends are down and more than one year old corrective Wave-4 is on. Following patterns in EOD Charts are suggesting that finally impulsive Wave-5 will begin after completion of Wave-4 correction:-

1- Falling Channel pattern in Wave-4 correction and Nifty is trading near the lower levels of channel therefore expected that Nifty will get support near the lower falling line of channel and  that rally may start which may give Wave-5 confirmation after crossing of higher levels resistances.
2- Trend reversal "broadening pattern" formation at the bottom of correction therefore trend reversal and finally impulsive Wave-5 is expected.

As buying at lower level between 4644-4678 and selling at higher levels between 4820-4870 seen in last 5 sessions therefore firstly Indian markets have to prepare for next decisive moves in the beginning of coming weak. Trend reversal broadening pattern formation at the bottom and lower levels supports also in previous week therefore expected that Indian markets will consolidate and finally cross higher levels resistances in the coming week.

Pull Back Rally has begun in previous week and will remain continued in the coming week.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Nov-2011


FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Nov-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII25-Nov-20111410.62215.6-805


DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII25-Nov-20111763.47726.921036.55

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Nov-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing
2- Dodi Candle.
3- Mid cap and Small Cap Indices closed in Green
4- Most Indices slipped from Intraday higher levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:1.05
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Nov-2011):17.05

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1554
BSE DECLINES : 1227
NSE ADVANCES : 802
NSE DECLINES : 621

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4600 CE(Dec)- +185550(+25.38%)
Nifty- 4600 PE(Dec)- +737250(+19.78%)

Nifty- 4700 CE(Dec)- +405300(+18.77%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Dec)- +1156150(+22.94%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Dec)- +1211400(+46.58%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Dec)- +463400(+9.78%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,710.05(-46.40 Points & -0.98%)
Sensex- closed at 15,695.43(-163.06 Points & -1.03% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,597.70(+11.20 Points & +0.17%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,049.39(+50.51 Points & +0.84%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-11-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4827
R2 4797
R1 4753
Avg 4723
S1 4679
S2 4649
S3 4605

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4784     Trgt 2
H5 4767     Trgt 1
H4 4750     Long breakout
H3 4730     Go Short
H2 4723
H1 4716
L1 4703
L2 4696
L3 4689     Long
L4 4669     Short Breakout
L5 4652     Trgt 1
L6 4635     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-11-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 4852
R2 4815
R1 4762
Avg 4725
S1 4672
S2 4635
S3 4582

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4800     Trgt 2
H5 4779     Trgt 1
H4 4759     Long breakout
H3 4734     Go Short
H2 4726
H1 4718
L1 4701
L2 4693
L3 4685     Long
L4 4660     Short Breakout
L5 4640     Trgt 1
L6 4619     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-11-2011

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 8763
R2 8654
R1 8569
Avg 8460
S1 8375
S2 8266
S3 8181

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 8681     Trgt 2
H5 8635     Trgt 1
H4 8590     Long breakout
H3 8537     Go Short
H2 8519
H1 8501
L1 8466
L2 8448
L3 8430     Long
L4 8377     Short Breakout
L5 8332     Trgt 1
L6 8286     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Nov 28 to Dec 02,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5078
R2 4976
R1 4843
Avg 4741
S1 4608
S2 4506
S3 4373

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 4948     Trgt 2
H5 4893     Trgt 1
H4 4839     Long breakout
H3 4774     Go Short
H2 4753
H1 4731
L1 4688
L2 4666
L3 4645     Long
L4 4580     Short Breakout
L5 4526     Trgt 1
L6 4471     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Nov 28 to Dec 02,2011)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 9350
R2 9078
R1 8783
Avg 8511
S1 8216
S2 7944
S3 7649

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy

H6 9072     Trgt 2
H5 8935     Trgt 1
H4 8799     Long breakout
H3 8643     Go Short
H2 8591
H1 8539
L1 8436
L2 8384
L3 8332     Long
L4 8176     Short Breakout
L5 8040     Trgt 1
L6 7903     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(25-11-2011)

As soon as selling patterns developed then it was updated within first 3 hours at 12:06:00 PM today and good selling seen at higher levels also as well as market slipped from higher levels and being closed near day's lower levels.

Nifty traded with intraday consolidation patterns within 4696-4715 in last one hour. As intraday support at lower levels seen in the beginning and at the closure on today market therefore sustaining beyond 4696-4720 should be firstly watched next Monday for next moves commencement confirmations.

As clear consolidation patterns at lower levels today therefore view is not bearish despite Red closing today.

Mid-session Outlook(25-11-2011)

Nifty traded last half hour mixed patterns between 4748-4767 and again hovering around this range for the last one hour after lower levels consolidations  between 4700-4720 today.

Next immediate moves consirmation ranges are as follows;-

1- 4736-4754
2- 4736-4767
2- 4700-4767

As selling patterns also developed at higher levels after lower levels buying therefore sustaining beyond today trading range(4700-4767) will be next decisive moves confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(25-11-2011)

As Asian markets slipped more and sentiment more weakned therefore Nifty slipped below 4720 and firstly traded between 4700-4720.

As first 45 minutes intraday patterns showed consolidations patterns between 4700-4720 therefore up move expectations are alive after follow up consolidations despite depressing global sentiment.

4720-4767 is Trend decider for today

Pre-open Outlook(25-11-2011)

Strong rally after two day lower levels consolidation yesterday but last half hour  mixed intraday patterns were also seen between 4748-4767 therefore more consolidation is firstly required today to cross mentioned range.

All the Asian markets are flat to 1% down today therefore sentiment is moderately weak today morning and Nifty will trade between 4720-4767 for preparation of next moves. Finally up moves are expected after fresh consolidation today and next moves consirmation range is 4720-4667.  Importance of these two levels are as follows:-

1- 4720 is previous 64 sessions lowest and finally sustaining below 4720 will mean range breaking down.
2- 4767 is highest of yesterday last half hour mixed intraday patterns and finally sustaining above will be selling absorbing and consolidation confirmation as well as yesterday started rally continuation confirmation also.

Pull Back rally is on after correction completion

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 25-11-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(24-Nov-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 4640-4690
2- Strong recovery.
3- Whole day trading between 4640-4771
4- Last half hour mixed patterns between 4648-4667


Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Strong rally seen after good consolidation today but it was clearly projected in this Blog and following   lines were told at 05:39:00 PM yesterday in the topic of  Confirmation required for 64 sessions range(4720) breaking down

"As intermediate term oscillators are oversold and two bullish Candles formations also yesterday therefore Indian markets are prepared for a strong bounce back"

When all were telling for bearish markets then we told for strong bounce back and for confirmations again and again sustaining around 4644 was told.

Following lines were also told today at 12:56:00 PM in Mid-session Outlook(24-11-2011)

1- Consolidation seen between 4640-4670 today after good support between 4644-4678 yesterday.


2- As two sessions support above 4640 therefore until Nifty will not sustain 4640 till then any down move will not be considered 

Nifty moved above 4720 after getting strong support at 4640 and again reentered between 64 sessions range. Correction started on 31-10-2011 and during 16 sessions correction good consolidation seen between 4640-4690 in last 2 sessions which resulted today strong up moves.

Pull Back Rally is on and more consolidation is required to cross following levels:-

1- 4648-4667(Last half hour mixed today)
2- 4810-4890(Strong resistance)

Expected that firstly follow up consolidation will be seen in the coming sessions and after that  Nifty will counter next resistance range(4810-4890). Pull Back Rally commenced after correction completion today and crossing as well as sustaining above 4890 will be confirmation of strong up moves.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 24-Nov-2011


FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 24-Nov-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII24-Nov-20112072.953709.03-1636.08


DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII24-Nov-20111908.66860.911047.75

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-11-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4937
R2 4854
R1 4805
Avg 4722
S1 4673
S2 4590
S3 4541

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4891     Trgt 2
H5 4859     Trgt 1
H4 4828     Long breakout
H3 4792     Go Short
H2 4780
H1 4768
L1 4743
L2 4731
L3 4719     Long
L4 4683     Short Breakout
L5 4652     Trgt 1
L6 4620     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-11-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 4956
R2 4877
R1 4816
Avg 4737
S1 4676
S2 4597
S3 4536

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4898     Trgt 2
H5 4865     Trgt 1
H4 4833     Long breakout
H3 4794     Go Short
H2 4781
H1 4768
L1 4743
L2 4730
L3 4717     Long
L4 4679     Short Breakout
L5 4646     Trgt 1
L6 4613     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-11-2011

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 8828
R2 8676
R1 8574
Avg 8422
S1 8320
S2 8168
S3 8066

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 8732     Trgt 2
H5 8671     Trgt 1
H4 8611     Long breakout
H3 8541     Go Short
H2 8518
H1 8495
L1 8448
L2 8425
L3 8402     Long
L4 8332     Short Breakout
L5 8272     Trgt 1
L6 8211     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(24-11-2011)

Following lines were told at 05:39:00 PM yesterday in the topic of  Confirmation required for 64 sessions range(4720) breaking down

"As intermediate term oscillators are oversold and two bullish Candles formations also yesterday therefore Indian markets are prepared for a strong bounce back"

When all were telling for bearish markets then we told for strong bounce back and for confirmations again and again sustaining around 4644 was told.

Following lines were also told today at 12:56:00 PM in Mid-session Outlook(24-11-2011)

1- Consolidation seen between 4640-4670 today after good support between 4644-4678 yesterday.


2- As two sessions support above 4640 therefore until Nifty will not sustain 4640 till then any down move will not be considered 

Nifty moved above 4720 after getting strong support at 4640 and again entered between 64 sessions range. More up moves are expected after correction completion confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(24-11-2011)

Only sustaining below 4644 was given for down moves confirmation and Nifty could not sustain below it as well as moved after forming lowest at 4639.10. Consolidation seen between 4640-4670 today after good support between 4644-4678 yesterday.

As two sessions support above 4640 therefore until Nifty will not sustain 4640 till then any down move will not be considered and sustaing above 4678 will be confirmation of fresh up moves after correction completion therefore should be kept in mind.