No respite,under performance than Global markets and down moves continuations after positive opening but Budget announcement tomorrow therefore a bounce back possibility can not be ruled out because very short term indicators are Oversold now.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Last hope for Bulls is Union Budget
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Feb-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Corrective Wave-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5348.55 on 10-07-2012(Sub Wave-1)
3- 5032.40 on 26-07-2012(Sub Wave-2)
4- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Sub Wave-3)
5- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4)
6- 6111.80 on 29-01-2013(Sub Wave-5)
7- 61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111.
8- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 61 sessions with Neckline at 5823.
9- Neckline Broken down on 26-02-2013
Neckline of trend reversal Bearish Head and Shoulders broken down today after following negative news:-
1- US markets closed more than 1.55% to 2.22% down on 25-02-2013.
2- Most Asian markets closed near lowest levels with more than 1% down on 26-02-2013.
3- All European markets traded than 1.5%% weak during Indian trading hours.
4- Disappointing Railway Budget because increase in freight rates is bound to push all round inflation in the country.
A big trend reversal through 61 sessions trading range broken down today due to flood most unexpected negative news flow therefore confirmation is required yet through:-
1- 3 Sessions closing below 5823 or
2- 3% Down from 5823.
As today down moves were without as such selling formations therefore above mentioned confirmation is must for testing of following levels:-
1- 5647(200-Day EMA) because high possibility of its testing after Head and Shoulders like Bearish pattern confirmation.
2- 5548.35 because minimum whole Sub Wave-5 will retrace.
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Corrective Wave-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5348.55 on 10-07-2012(Sub Wave-1)
3- 5032.40 on 26-07-2012(Sub Wave-2)
4- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Sub Wave-3)
5- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4)
6- 6111.80 on 29-01-2013(Sub Wave-5)
7- 61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111.
8- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 61 sessions with Neckline at 5823.
9- Neckline Broken down on 26-02-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Neckline of trend reversal Bearish Head and Shoulders broken down today after following negative news:-
1- US markets closed more than 1.55% to 2.22% down on 25-02-2013.
2- Most Asian markets closed near lowest levels with more than 1% down on 26-02-2013.
3- All European markets traded than 1.5%% weak during Indian trading hours.
4- Disappointing Railway Budget because increase in freight rates is bound to push all round inflation in the country.
A big trend reversal through 61 sessions trading range broken down today due to flood most unexpected negative news flow therefore confirmation is required yet through:-
1- 3 Sessions closing below 5823 or
2- 3% Down from 5823.
As today down moves were without as such selling formations therefore above mentioned confirmation is must for testing of following levels:-
1- 5647(200-Day EMA) because high possibility of its testing after Head and Shoulders like Bearish pattern confirmation.
2- 5548.35 because minimum whole Sub Wave-5 will retrace.
Most depressed sentiment today and last hope for Bulls is Union Budget on 28-02-2013.
Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(26-Feb-2013)
Main features of today trading are as follows
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.79
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.77
Nifty P/E Ratio(26-Feb-2013): 17.38
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 724
BSE Declines : 2,136
NSE Advances : 273
NSE Declines : 1,266
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5600 CE(Feb)- 6,700(2.69%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Feb)- 348,400(6.29%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(Feb)- 483,250(121.21%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Feb)- -150,500(-2.71%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Feb)- 2,227,100(117.45%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Feb)- -742,050(-10.44%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Feb)- 1,261,250(18.87%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Feb)- -1,278,100(-26.69%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19,015.14(-316.55 Points & -1.64%)
Nifty- closed at 5,761.35(-93.40 Points & -1.60%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,718.40(-143.80 Points & -1.83%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,316.30(-75.05 Points & -2.21%)
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 26-Feb-2013
| ||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013
R3 5906
R2 5872
R1 5816
Avg 5782
S1 5726
S2 5692
S3 5636
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5851 Trgt 2
H5 5830 Trgt 1
H4 5810 Long breakout
H3 5785 Go Short
H2 5777
H1 5769
L1 5752
L2 5744
L3 5736 Long
L4 5711 Short Breakout
L5 5691 Trgt 1
L6 5670 Trgt 2
Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013
R3 5901
R2 5869
R1 5818
Avg 5786
S1 5735
S2 5703
S3 5652
Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5850 Trgt 2
H5 5831 Trgt 1
H4 5812 Long breakout
H3 5789 Go Short
H2 5782
H1 5774
L1 5759
L2 5751
L3 5744 Long
L4 5721 Short Breakout
L5 5702 Trgt 1
L6 5683 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013
R3 12145
R2 12074
R1 11961
Avg 11890
S1 11777
S2 11706
S3 11593
Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 12032 Trgt 2
H5 11990 Trgt 1
H4 11949 Long breakout
H3 11898 Go Short
H2 11881
H1 11864
L1 11831
L2 11814
L3 11797 Long
L4 11746 Short Breakout
L5 11705 Trgt 1
L6 11663 Trgt 2
CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-Selling Trade
CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-Sell-Intraday/Positional-SL-5036 & TGT-4956-CMP-5011(Lalit39)
Pre-Closing Outlook(26-02-2013)
Sentiment depressed today firstly due to weaker global markets and after that no enthusiastic announcements in Rail Budget therefore down moves continuation after its completion. Although down but no confirmation of 5823 breaking down because today down moves are without intraday selling patterns and lacking required force also.
As technically confirmations through 3 sessions closing below 5823 below or 3% down moves are also required and this filter will be applied now for breaking down confirmations of 5823 because today down moves are due to negative news generated also.
As technically confirmations through 3 sessions closing below 5823 below or 3% down moves are also required and this filter will be applied now for breaking down confirmations of 5823 because today down moves are due to negative news generated also.
Mid-session Outlook(26-02-2013)
Today down moves are due to Global markets weakness therefore Nifty is trading below 61 sessions trading range(5823) for the last 2 hours. As today weakness is negative news based amid most depressing sentiments and not due to previous sessions intraday selling therefore 61 sessions trading range breaking down confirmation is required through sustaining below 5823
Although Nifty slipped and now trading below 5800 but without as such intraday selling patterns formations today therefore sustaining below 5823 has not got confirmations yet.
Although Nifty slipped and now trading below 5800 but without as such intraday selling patterns formations today therefore sustaining below 5823 has not got confirmations yet.
Post-open Outlook(26-02-2013)
Weakness in lines with Asian markets and now hovering around 5823 after slipping below it which is last hope for Bulls and sustaining it beyond should be watched now for deeper correction or Post Budget Rally confirmations.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-02-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Feb-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 5840-5857
2- Consolidation between 5825-5845
3- Intraday correction completion after 3 corrective Waves completion.
4- Whole day actual trading between 5825-5876
Lower levels good supports with closing after some slipping from higher levels in last hour but intraday chart is showing 3 corrective ABC waves hence strong indication of intraday correction completion as well. As consolidation was seen yesterday after good consolidation last Friday therefore good indication of up moves preparations and possibly after Budget on 28-02-2013.
Pre-open Outlook(26-02-2013)
US markets tumbled more than 1% yesterday therefore sentiment is weak today morning and all the Asian markets are in Red therefore weak to gap down opening is possible and volatility also can not be ruled out because Rail Budget today. As good consolidations in last 2 sessions therefore up moves possibility after Budget is still alive after follow up consolidations today.
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 5840-5857
2- Consolidation between 5825-5845
3- Intraday correction completion after 3 corrective Waves completion.
4- Whole day actual trading between 5825-5876
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Lower levels good supports with closing after some slipping from higher levels in last hour but intraday chart is showing 3 corrective ABC waves hence strong indication of intraday correction completion as well. As consolidation was seen yesterday after good consolidation last Friday therefore good indication of up moves preparations and possibly after Budget on 28-02-2013.
Pre-open Outlook(26-02-2013)
US markets tumbled more than 1% yesterday therefore sentiment is weak today morning and all the Asian markets are in Red therefore weak to gap down opening is possible and volatility also can not be ruled out because Rail Budget today. As good consolidations in last 2 sessions therefore up moves possibility after Budget is still alive after follow up consolidations today.
For next trend confirmations sustaining beyond 5823 should be firstly watched today in depressed sentiment today morning.
Mid-session Outlook-2(25-02-2013)
Although Indian markets closed at the lowest of the day last Friday but we did not posted Bearish views in all 3 previous Outlooks because intraday charts showed consolidation patterns formations last Friday. Today also when Nifty was trading near today lowest then also we did not updated Bearish views at 12:50 PM because intraday patterns are not showing as such selling formations and good recovery with new intraday high formation was seen after that.
Emergence of fresh up moves hopes because intraday supports at lower levels today but good selling at higher levels in last 60 sessions therefore lot of consolidations are required for any decisive up moves and Valid break out of 5823-5873 will be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.
Mid-session Outlook(25-02-2013)
Although slipping from higher levels and new intraday low formation below 5836 but intraday patterns are not showing as such selling patterns formations. Until Nifty will not sustaining below 5823 till then view will not be bearish and Valid break out of 5823-5873 will be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.
Post-open Outlook(25-02-2013)
Although Nifty traded between 5836-5873 last Friday with intraday consolidation patterns and supports getting above 5823 in previous 60 sessions but breaking down of 5836 and 5823 will be deeper down moves confirmations. As consolidation above 5836 last Friday therefore Bounce back possibility is still alive despite slipping from higher levels immediately after opening today.
Follow up intraday technical positions will be firstly watched today for sharp down moves below 5823 after fresh selling today or rally possibility after Budget after follow up consoilidations today and next 3 sessions.
View is not Bearish yet because last Friday intraday consolidations formations and follow up intraday patterns will be firstly watched today and also will be updated accordingly as well as Valid break out 5823-5873 should be firstly watched now for next big trend confirmation.
Follow up intraday technical positions will be firstly watched today for sharp down moves below 5823 after fresh selling today or rally possibility after Budget after follow up consoilidations today and next 3 sessions.
View is not Bearish yet because last Friday intraday consolidations formations and follow up intraday patterns will be firstly watched today and also will be updated accordingly as well as Valid break out 5823-5873 should be firstly watched now for next big trend confirmation.
Neither Bullish nor Bearish but cautious before Budget
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 25 to Mar 01,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Feb-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Corrective Wave-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5348.55 on 10-07-2012(Sub Wave-1)
3- 5032.40 on 26-07-2012(Sub Wave-2)
4- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Sub Wave-3)
5- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4)
6- 6111.80 on 29-01-2013(Sub Wave-5)
7- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 60 sessions with Neckline at 5823
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Correction continuation after Sub Wave-5 completion with trend reversal Head and Shoulders Bearish pattern formations in last 60 sessions and its Neckline is at 5823. Valid Break out below 5823 will mean breaking down of 60 sessions trading range and Neckline as well,resultant sharp down moves toward next supports at 5548.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-12-2012 to 22-02-2013):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 6000-6111
2- Selling between 5890-5930
3- Selling between 5890-5970
4- Consolidation between 5823-5870
5- 60 Sessions actual trading between 5823-6111.
Conclusions from 60 Sessions intra day chart analysis
60 Sessions intra day chart is showing clear selling formations and multiple resistances at higher levels with some supports at lower levels. As good selling at higher levels therefore follow up selling in next week will mean sharp fall and consolidations in next week will mean some up moves only. As multiple resistances at higher levels therefore Valid break out of 6111 will give next up trend confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Feb-2013):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- All Down moves are in Bullish Falling Channels.
2- Whole day actual trading between 5836-5873
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although 37 Points narrow range trading with closing near lower levels of the day but without any selling patterns formations. As all down moves are in Bullish Falling Channels formations therefore indications of some up moves in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Union Budget-2013 presentation on 28-02-2013 and before that 3 trading sessions left. Nifty is range bound between 5823-6111 and it is confirm that break out of this range will mean strong moves toward break out side as well as its high possibility after Budget.
As next big moves will be decided through break out of mentioned 60 sessions range therefore technical positions within it has been updated above and strong indications of down moves below 5823 but a ray of hope is also seen after whole day good consolidations within 60 sessions supports range last Friday and up moves after Budget can not be ruled out if follow up consolidation develops in the coming 3 sessions before Budget.
It is confirm that big moves will be seen after Budget and up moves possibility is also alive despite last Friday closing near lower levels of 60 sessions range. Follow up moves(intraday charts patterns formations) with sustaining beyond 5823 will be firstly watched in the coming sessions. Let Market prepare for Post Budget trend then will be updated in Mid-session Outlooks according to conclusions from intraday charts formations in the same manner as being done for the last 3 years.
Neither Bullish nor Bearish but cautious view with watchful approach amid most depressed sentiments before Union Budget-2013 and post Budget trend is yet to get confirmations from next 3 sessions intraday charts formations.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 22-Feb-2013
| ||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||
Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(22-Feb-2013)
Main features of today trading are as follows
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.87
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.84
Nifty P/E Ratio(22-Feb-2013): 17.66
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,395
BSE Declines : 1,450
NSE Advances : 748
NSE Declines : 763
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5700 CE(Feb)- 50,650(18.47%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Feb)- 1,184,400(24.08%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Feb)- 178,100(11.14%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Feb)- 47,000(0.62%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Feb)- 113,150(1.90%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Feb)- -678,500(-12.70%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Feb)- 46,850(0.45%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Feb)- -146,600(-5.98%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19317.01(-8.35 Points & -0.04%)
Nifty- closed at 5,850.30(-1.95 Points & -0.03%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,921.15(-4.00 Points & -0.05%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,431.20(0.15 Points & 0.00%)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)