Post-open Outlook(28-01-2013)

Almost 2 hours without strength trading between 6076-6086 and until Nifty will not sustain above 6100 till then next up move will not be considered.

Correction On 29th Jan or From 1st Week of Feb 2013

Wishing You All Happy Republic Day

Analysis for Short Term Traders and Long Term Investors

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 28 to Feb 01,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high)
2- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Correction completion) 
3- Wave-1(6338.50 on 05-11-2010)
4- Wave-2(4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
5- Wave-3 is continuation from 20-12-2011
6- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-3(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
7- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-3(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
8- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3 continuation &its top formation at 6101.30

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Sub Wave-3 0f Wave-3 is on from 4531.15 and its waves structure with technical formations have to be firstly understood because market will react accordingly in the coming week.

Waves Structure of Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3 

Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Sub Wave-3 continuation(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 gained 578.20 points(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Sub Wave-3 continuation,its recent top is at 6101.30

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after Sub Wave-4 correction completion. As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5. Wave-3 gained 782.95 points as per theory Sub Wave-5 will gain less than 782.95 point from the bottom of Wave-4(5548.35) therefore Sub Wave-5 maximum target will be less than 6331.30(5548.35+782.95). Previous tops above 6000 are as follows:-

1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008.
2- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.

As on going Sub Wave-5 rally possible maximum target is near 6331 therefore Triple Top formation may be seen. Expected that Sub Wave-5 will not gain less than 61.8% of Sub Wave-3 gains and Sub Wave-5 targets should be between 6031-6331.

Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3 continuation after Sub Wave-4 correction completion at 5548.35 and its Waves structure is al follows:-

Waves Structure of Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5

Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Sub Wave-5 coontinuation(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 gained 416.80 points(5965.15 on 11-12-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5(5823.15 on 18-12-2012) 
4- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 is continued with Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it.
5- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 is on(Top formation at 6101.30 on 22-01-2013 and gained 278.15 points yet) but with 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 is on and as per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5. Wave-1 gained 416.80 points as per theory Sub Wave-3 minimum target is:-

5823.15(Sub Wave-3 started)+416.80(Sub Wave-1 gained)=6239.95 is minimum target of ongoing Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 but its continuation with Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it.

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Nifty-Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart(25-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators & Averages  Together)

1- 20 Day EMA is at- 6606
2- 55 Day EMA is at- 5890
3- 200 Day EMA is at- 5577

Nifty is trading well above 55 and 200 Day EMA therefore Long and Intermediate term trends are up and Short Term Trend is sideways between 6000-6100 for the last 9 sessions. As Nifty is trading near the upper Band of Bollinger Band for the last 18 sessions therefore indicating down moves possibility to test Lower bend.

Sub Wave-5 is moving up while 4 indicators are moving down therefore Negative Divergence is clearly visible in EOD charts. It is strong indication of loosing strength and deeper correction possibility. As negative divergence in whole Sub Wave-5 therefore possibility of its complete retracement after beginning of correction.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 15 to Jan 25,2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 9 Sessions intraday charts

1- Support between 6000-6020.
2- Support between 6020-6033
3- Resistance between 6068-6100 
4- 9 Sessions actual trading between 6000-6100 

Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

9 Sessions sideways market between 6000-6100 with good supports at lower levels and  equally good resistances at higher levels as well as volatility also seen.

As technical positions are not one sided at this moment therefore firstly trading will be seen within this range valid break out of this range will decide next immediate trend. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation  between 6014-6033
2- Up moves in Rising Channel with Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6014-6080

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although whole day good up moves after lower levels consolidations but between Rising Channel with Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it therefore no immediate rally confirmation despite closing near higher levels of the day and follow up selling in the beginning of next week will mean fast retracement of whole intraday up move of 25-01-2013.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Intermediate to Long Term Outlook for Investors

Wave-2 completed at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011 after 13 Months low formation and correction completion as well as since then Wave-3 continuation and recent top formation exactly after 13 months at 6101.30 on 22-01-2013. As 13 is a Fibonacci Number and financial markets are tend to reverse and form new trend at or near about Fibonacci Numbers therefore possibility of rally top formation within on going 13th month(upto 20-02-2013) should be kept in mind.

Sub Wave-5 targets should be between 6031-6331 and ongoing Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 minimum target is at 6239.95 but its continuation is with Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it also therefore possibility of market prepataion for correction. Indicators on daily charts are showing negative divergence which means that market is loosing strength.  As upmoves are without force and lacking momentum therefore telling for rally reaching near targets and correction beginning possibility. Minimum target of onging  Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 is at 6239.95 and Sub Wave-5 maximum target is at 6331 and 2 more waves(Sub Wave-4 of Sub Wave-5 and Sub Wave-5 of Sub Wave-5) formations is left therefore following possibilities should be kept in mond:-

1- On going Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 completion between 6239.95-6331.
2- Sub Wave-4 of Sub Wave-5 correction 
3- Sub Wave-5 of Sub Wave-5 continuation toward maximum 6331. 

As correction will start from any level between 6239.95-6331 and Sub Wave-5 maximum target is at 6331 therefore double top formation and high possibility of that Sub Wave-3 correction which started from 4770.35 on 04-06-2012. Let correction beginning confirmation come then its levels will be updated.

On going Wave-3 started from 4531.15 and according to Elliot Wave theory its minimum target is at 8616.90 and next rally will restart after above mentioned expected correction completion above 5629.95. Just click following topic link and understand its calculation:-

Nifty Target at 8616.90

Short Term Outlook for Traders

Market will react on RBI Credit policy on 29-01-2013 and prepare for next Deravative month upto 31-01-2013. As Union Budget in next month therefore Indian markets will prepare for it also in next month. Negative Divergence in Daily charts therefore possibility of correction and market is preparing for correction also because Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation also seen in EOD Charts.

Technically correction will start from any level between 6239.95-6331 but 9 Sessions sideways market between 6000-6100 with good supports at lower levels and equally good resistances at higher levels as well as highly volatile market in previous week which is Bear market indication therefore Indian markets are well prepared for correction and RBI Credit policy will decide for correction beginning from 29 Jan or 1st week of Feb 3013. 

Although good up moves last Friday but with Bearish formations also and next resistances are between 6068-6100 therefore Nifty will hover around this range next couple of sessions before RBI Credit policy and prepare for next moves. Sharp moves are expected after RBI Credit policy and valid Break out of 6068-6100 will mean:-

1- Below 6068 will mean immediate deeper correction and market is prepare for it also through negative divergence and Bearish formations in EOD Charts.
2- Above 6100 will mean firstly up moves toward 6239.95-6331 and after that deeper correction from 1st week of Feb 3013.

Let market prepare for post RBI Credit policy moves then We shall update in Mid-session Outlooks next moves possibility after RBI Credit policy according to formations of next Monday intraday charts. 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Jan-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Jan-2013 3789 3202.13 586.87

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Jan-2013 779.57 1111.49 -331.92

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green.

2- Closing near higher levels after strong recovery from lower levels.

3- Long White Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.06

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.99

Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Jan-2013): 18.28

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,639

BSE Declines : 1,250 

NSE Advances :   882

NSE Declines :   558

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- -16,900(-2.71%)

Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)-  47,600(1.15%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -36,900(-4.21%)

Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -369,700(-4.37%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -235,450(-18.09%)

Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)-  6,150(0.08%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -769,750(-16.76%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)-  1,772,100(26.09%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -1,702,900(-20.24%)

Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)-  642,800(25.32%)

Nifty- 6200 CE(Jan)- -206,950(-2.13%)

Nifty- 6200 PE(Jan)-  9,450(1.65%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20,103.53(179.75 Points & 0.90%)

Nifty- closed at 6,074.65(55.30 Points & 0.92%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,374.45(168.50 Points & 2.05%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,663.85(45.80 Points & 1.27%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels


R3 6164
R2 6122
R1 6098
Avg 6056
S1 6032
S2 5990
S3 5966

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6140     Trgt 2
H5 6125     Trgt 1
H4 6110     Long breakout
H3 6092     Go Short
H2 6086
H1 6080
L1 6067
L2 6061
L3 6055     Long
L4 6037     Short Breakout
L5 6022     Trgt 1
L6 6007     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6166
R2 6124
R1 6098
Avg 6056
S1 6030
S2 5988
S3 5962

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6141     Trgt 2
H5 6126     Trgt 1
H4 6110     Long breakout
H3 6091     Go Short
H2 6085
H1 6079
L1 6066
L2 6060
L3 6054     Long
L4 6035     Short Breakout
L5 6019     Trgt 1
L6 6004     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12971

R2 12853

R1 12781

Avg 12663

S1 12591

S2 12473

S3 12401

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12901     Trgt 2 

H5 12857     Trgt 1

H4 12813     Long breakout 

H3 12761     Go Short 

H2 12743

H1 12726

L1 12691

L2 12674

L3 12656     Long 

L4 12604     Short Breakout 

L5 12560     Trgt 1 

L6 12516     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 28 to Feb 01,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6207
R2 6154
R1 6114
Avg 6061
S1 6021
S2 5968
S3 5928

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 6168     Trgt 2
H5 6146     Trgt 1
H4 6125     Long breakout
H3 6099     Go Short
H2 6091
H1 6082
L1 6065
L2 6056
L3 6048     Long
L4 6022     Short Breakout
L5 6001     Trgt 1
L6 5979     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 28 to Feb 01,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 13031
R2 12890
R1 12791
Avg 12650
S1 12551
S2 12410
S3 12311

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 12936     Trgt 2
H5 12880     Trgt 1
H4 12825     Long breakout
H3 12759     Go Short
H2 12737
H1 12715
L1 12671
L2 12649
L3 12627     Long
L4 12561     Short Breakout
L5 12505     Trgt 1
L6 12449     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook-4(25-01-2013)

As more indications of consolidations therefore up move above 6035 expectations was updated in Mid-session Outlook-2(25-01-2013) and it was seen also but immediately after that Bearish Rising Wedge formation also developed therefore valid break out confirmation was required and it has been received through sustaining above 6035.

8 Sessions sideways trading between 6000-6100 with resistances between 6068-6100 and now Nifty is trading at lower levels of this range. Complete consolidation is required for sustaining above 6100. Follow up moves within and near about mentioned resistance range should be watched for the prospects of next rally above 6100 or again range bound market within 6000-6100.

Mid-session Outlook-3(25-01-2013)

Break out and trading above 6035 but showing Bearish Rising Wedge formation therefore having doubt on sustaining above 5035.

For precaution valid break out above should also be watched for confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(25-01-2013)

Today first 2 hours trading between 6015-6035 with mixed patterns formations but more indications of consolidations therefore up move above 6035 is expected and for precaution valid break out above should also be watched for confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(25-01-2013)

Although Indian markets closed in Red with closing at lowest of the day yesterday but lower levels supports and intraday consolidation patterns were also seen therefore following lines were told in previous Outlook yesterday:-

Follow up moves will be firstly watched tomorrow for confirmation of next moves beyond 6000-6020,its valid break out will mean following moves:-

1- Deeper correction possibility below 6000 or
2- Sideways market(6000-6100) above 6020.

Today first 2 hours trading between 6015-6035 with mixed patterns formations and most time trading between 6025-6035 but not showing any clear technical positions therefore confirmations required through firstly this range break out and after that 6000-6035. 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(25-01-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Good support between 6011-6019
2- Consolidation Patterns between 6020-6033
3- Down moves from higher levels without selling patterns. 
4- Whole day actual trading between 6011-6045

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Following lines told today at 06:10 AM in "Finally Big Correction after sideways Market"

A- Immediate Resistance and supports are as follows:-

1- Resistances between 6068-6100
2- Supports between 6000-6020

B- Under whatsoever Bullish or Bearish sentiment but Nifty will firstly trade between 6000-6100 in the coming session and prepare for next moves,its valid break out will give following conclusions:-

1- Above 6100 will mean slow up moves maximum up to 6331.
2- Below 6000 will mean sharp down moves with deeper correction possibility.

Nifty traded whole day within above mentioned range between 6007.85-6065.30 today and traded most time within above mentioned supports range(6000-6020) as well as closed within it at 6019.35. Although Indian markets traded whole day in Red and also closed negative after slipping from intraday higher levels but selling patterns were not seen today and on the other hand lower levels supports as well as consolidation patterns also seen today.

Finally Big Correction will be seen and its beginning first strong indication will be valid break down of 6000 but supports seen within it today. As selling patterns formation not seen within it today therefore 6000 breaking down can not be projected at this moment and follow up moves will be firstly watched tomorrow for confirmation of next moves beyond 6000-6020,its valid break out will mean following moves:-

1- Deeper correction possibility below 6000 or 
2- Sideways market(6000-6100) above 6020.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 24-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 24-Jan-2013 4522.58 3496.26 1026.32

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 24-Jan-2013 1198.24 1950.5 -752.26

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(24-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- All Indices closed in Red and some closed in deep Red but CNX FMCG and CNX IT closed in Green.
3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.04
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.98
Nifty P/E Ratio(24-Jan-2013): 18.12

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :   706
BSE Declines : 2,175
NSE Advances :   244
NSE Declines : 1,227

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- 2,600(0.29%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- 1,057,350(14.24%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- 149,250(12.81%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -554,350(-6.59%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- 1,146,200(32.55%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- -1,260,150(-15.16%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- 1,923,650(27.31%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- -426,000(-13.76%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,923.78(-102.83 Points & -0.51%)
Nifty- closed at 6,019.35(-34.95 Points & -0.58%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,205.95(-224.05 Points & -2.66%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,618.05(-95.85 Points & -2.58%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6111

R2 6088

R1 6053

Avg 6030

S1 5995

S2 5972

S3 5937

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6077     Trgt 2 

H5 6064     Trgt 1

H4 6050     Long breakout 

H3 6034     Go Short 

H2 6029

H1 6024

L1 6013

L2 6008

L3 6003     Long 

L4 5987     Short Breakout 

L5 5973     Trgt 1 

L6 5960     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6114

R2 6091

R1 6055

Avg 6032

S1 5996

S2 5973

S3 5937

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6078     Trgt 2 

H5 6064     Trgt 1

H4 6051     Long breakout 

H3 6035     Go Short 

H2 6029

H1 6024

L1 6013

L2 6008

L3 6002     Long 

L4 5986     Short Breakout 

L5 5973     Trgt 1 

L6 5959     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12818

R2 12754

R1 12659

Avg 12595

S1 12500

S2 12436

S3 12341

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12723     Trgt 2 

H5 12687     Trgt 1

H4 12651     Long breakout 

H3 12607     Go Short 

H2 12593

H1 12578

L1 12549

L2 12534

L3 12520     Long 

L4 12476     Short Breakout 

L5 12440     Trgt 1 

L6 12404     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(24-01-2013)

Nifty slipped and again moved into next support range(6000-6020) but without any selling pattern formation at higher levels today and firstly valid break out of 6000-6020 will be watched tomorrow for deeper correction confirmation below 6000 or sideways trend above 6020.