Intraday selling patterns and Bearish lower top formations as well therefore again development of minimum very short term down moves possibility today.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Bought on 18-01-2013-Message
NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Bought on 18-01-2013-Market will be volatile but will be finally down.Hold and cover after my covering message(Lalit39)
Down Moves after Positive Weekly Opening
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 21 to Jan 25,2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Jan-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 6068-6082
2- Whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6048-6082
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although whole day down moves in Bullish falling channel but good selling seen therefore view will not be Bullish despite Green closing and whole day trading patterns are suggesting that finally market should move down below the lowest of the day(6048)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 02 to Jan 18,2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 6000-6026
2- Consolidation between 5940-5970
3- consolidation between 6001-6017 on 17-01-2013
4- Selling between 6040-6052 on 17-01-2013
5- Selling between 6068-6082 on 18-01-2013
6- 13 Sessions actual trading between 5940-6082
Conclusions from 13 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Firstly 9 sessions trading between 5940-6026 Consolidation at lower levels but equally good selling also at higher levels also and range broken out on 15-01-2013 but slipped again below 6026 after higher levels selling on 16-01-2013. Although 9 sessions trading range broken out on 17-01-2013 but again selling seen on 18-01-2013.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Broader trends have already been updated in following topics in previous week and no significant change in technical till now therefore not being repeated. Just click following links and understand long term trend,Indicators analysis,next correction possibilities and Waves structure:-
Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-01-2013)
As above expectations RIL Quarterly results declaration after trading hours on 18-01-2013 therefore positive opening will be seen on 21-01-2013 but expected that Nifty will not sustain at higher levels.
9 sessions trading range(5940-6026) broken out but lacking required force and selling development at higher levels therefore expected that Nifty will reverse into 9 sessions trading range and again prepare for next decisive trend in the coming week. Valid break out of 5940-6082 will give following conclusions:-
1- Below 5940 will mean Intermediate term corrcetion.
2- Above 6082 will mean up moves toward maximum up to 6331.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 18-Jan-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(18-Jan-2013)
1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green while CNX Midcap and CNX Smallcap closed in Red.
2- Good opening after strong global cues but mixed closing and most Indices closed with small gains or small loss.
3- Small White candle formation.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.07
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.96
Nifty P/E Ratio(18-Jan-2013):18.30
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,272
BSE Declines : 1,675
NSE Advances : 569
NSE Declines : 873
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- -15,300(-2.30%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- -515,400(-10.26%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- 8,550(0.93%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -230,550(-2.85%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -149,350(-9.00%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- 468,850(5.63%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -216,650(-5.01%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- 753,650(10.29%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- 415,500(7.04%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- 421,500(21.66%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 20,039.04(75.01 Points & 0.38%)
Nifty- closed at 6,064.40(25.20 Points & 0.42%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,591.35(-1.50 Points & -0.02%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,783.65(-3.50 Points & -0.09%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-01-2013
R3 6117
R2 6100
R1 6082
Avg 6065
S1 6047
S2 6030
S3 6012
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6099 Trgt 2
H5 6091 Trgt 1
H4 6083 Long breakout
H3 6073 Go Short
H2 6070
H1 6067
L1 6060
L2 6057
L3 6054 Long
L4 6044 Short Breakout
L5 6036 Trgt 1
L6 6028 Trgt 2
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-01-2013
R3 6126
R2 6110
R1 6092
Avg 6076
S1 6058
S2 6042
S3 6024
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 6108 Trgt 2
H5 6100 Trgt 1
H4 6092 Long breakout
H3 6083 Go Short
H2 6080
H1 6077
L1 6070
L2 6067
L3 6064 Long
L4 6055 Short Breakout
L5 6047 Trgt 1
L6 6039 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-01-2013
R3 12944
R2 12884
R1 12798
Avg 12738
S1 12652
S2 12592
S3 12506
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 12858 Trgt 2
H5 12825 Trgt 1
H4 12792 Long breakout
H3 12752 Go Short
H2 12738
H1 12725
L1 12698
L2 12685
L3 12671 Long
L4 12631 Short Breakout
L5 12598 Trgt 1
L6 12565 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 21 to Jan 25,2013)
R3 6231
R2 6157
R1 6110
Avg 6036
S1 5989
S2 5915
S3 5868
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 6187 Trgt 2
H5 6158 Trgt 1
H4 6130 Long breakout
H3 6097 Go Short
H2 6086
H1 6075
L1 6052
L2 6041
L3 6030 Long
L4 5997 Short Breakout
L5 5969 Trgt 1
L6 5940 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 21 to Jan 25,2013)
R3 13189
R2 13048
R1 12864
Avg 12723
S1 12539
S2 12398
S3 12214
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 13007 Trgt 2
H5 12933 Trgt 1
H4 12858 Long breakout
H3 12769 Go Short
H2 12739
H1 12709
L1 12650
L2 12620
L3 12590 Long
L4 12501 Short Breakout
L5 12426 Trgt 1
L6 12352 Trgt 2
NIFTY-Jan Put Option-Buying Trade
NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Buy-Positional-SL-14-TGT-64-CMP-28.50(Lalit39)
Pre-Closing Outlook(18-01-2013)
Although strong Global markets and good opening in Indian markets but we were not Bullish and showed our doubts with technical reasons in all the today Outlooks. First 5 hours trading between 6060-6082 and this range broken down after 02:15 PM but before that we told following lines:-
1- At 01:04:PM-"Selling patterns formations at higher levels today"
2- At 11:23 AM-"Minor profit booking at higher levels today,view is cautious and until Nifty will not cross today high(6083) till then next up move will not be considered and valid break down of 6065 will mean that correction about which we have already updated in previous 2 Outlooks"
1- At 01:04:PM-"Selling patterns formations at higher levels today"
2- At 11:23 AM-"Minor profit booking at higher levels today,view is cautious and until Nifty will not cross today high(6083) till then next up move will not be considered and valid break down of 6065 will mean that correction about which we have already updated in previous 2 Outlooks"
Same view yet which was updated at 11:23 AM today.
Mid-session Outlook(18-01-2013)
As selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore Nifty could not sustain at higher levels retested 6065 at 10:48 AM today. Minor profit booking at higher levels today,view is cautious and until Nifty will not cross today high(6083) till then next up move will not be considered and valid break down of 6065 will mean that correction about which we have already updated in previous 2 Outlooks.
Post-open Outlook(18-01-2013)
Although Nifty Jan Fut. has not shown required strength but Nifty Spot is above 6065 after gaining sufficiently required points. As such strong opening and trading so much positive is very much possible in today like heated sentiment therefore next decisive up moves confirmation through sustaining above 6065 after follow up consolidation is still required because selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions.
Pre-open Outlook(18-01-2013)
All the Asian markets are in Green with Nikkei and Hang Sang are more than 2% and 1% up respectively therefore sentiment is strong today morning therefore positive opening will be seen in Indian markets. Good selling seen between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore complete consolidation is required for sustaining above 6065. As Bull Markets consolidate at higher levels and up moves possibilities up to 6331 are still alive therefore rally continuation after follow up consolidation can not be ruled out but follow up selling in heated sentiment today will mean straight fall toward 5970 also.
12 Sessions sideways trading between 5950-6065 with good selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore market is well prepared for down moves also but strong Global markets and declaration of RIL Quaeterly results today therefore firstly follow up buying/selling will be watched and valid break out of 6030-6065 will give following moves confirmations;-
1- Above 6065 will mean rally continuation towards 6239.95/6331
2- Below 6030 will mean sharp down toward 5970/5950.
12 Sessions sideways trading between 5950-6065 with good selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore market is well prepared for down moves also but strong Global markets and declaration of RIL Quaeterly results today therefore firstly follow up buying/selling will be watched and valid break out of 6030-6065 will give following moves confirmations;-
1- Above 6065 will mean rally continuation towards 6239.95/6331
2- Below 6030 will mean sharp down toward 5970/5950.
Down Moves Possibility also within 12 Sessions Range
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jan-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- First 4 hours trading between 6000-6031
1- consolidation between 6001-6017
3- First 4 hours trading range broken out after after Fuel relating positive announcements
4- Selling Patterns between 6040-6052
5- Rising Channel broken down
6- Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
7- Whole day actual trading between 6000-6052
First 4 hours trading between 6000-6031 with consolidation between 6001-6017 and first 4 hours trading range broken out after after Fuel relating positive announcements but selling patterns formations also between 6040-6052 therefore market could not sustain at higher levels and slipped. As Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore this channel also broken down after higher levels seling and closing seen below it today.
12 Sessions trading between 5950-6065 with following immediate supports and resistances:
1- Supports- 5970-6017
2- Resistances- 6030-6065
Intraday selling was seen in previous sessions between 6030-6065 and again selling patterns formations between this range today therefore previous resistance becomes stronger and down moves between 5950-6065 can not be ruled out in the coming sessions. As last 2 hours trading between 6030-60652 was Fuel relating positive announcements generated and market forces reacts in their own manner after such news therefore therefore valid break out of 6030-6065 should be firstly watched tomorrow for next down moves confirmations between 12 sessions range(5950-6065)
If global markets does not gives any side strong sentiment then Nifty will firstly trade between today trading range(6000-6052). As higher levels selling today therefore down moves are possible between 5970-6000.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- First 4 hours trading between 6000-6031
1- consolidation between 6001-6017
3- First 4 hours trading range broken out after after Fuel relating positive announcements
4- Selling Patterns between 6040-6052
5- Rising Channel broken down
6- Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
7- Whole day actual trading between 6000-6052
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
First 4 hours trading between 6000-6031 with consolidation between 6001-6017 and first 4 hours trading range broken out after after Fuel relating positive announcements but selling patterns formations also between 6040-6052 therefore market could not sustain at higher levels and slipped. As Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore this channel also broken down after higher levels seling and closing seen below it today.
12 Sessions trading between 5950-6065 with following immediate supports and resistances:
1- Supports- 5970-6017
2- Resistances- 6030-6065
Intraday selling was seen in previous sessions between 6030-6065 and again selling patterns formations between this range today therefore previous resistance becomes stronger and down moves between 5950-6065 can not be ruled out in the coming sessions. As last 2 hours trading between 6030-60652 was Fuel relating positive announcements generated and market forces reacts in their own manner after such news therefore therefore valid break out of 6030-6065 should be firstly watched tomorrow for next down moves confirmations between 12 sessions range(5950-6065)
If global markets does not gives any side strong sentiment then Nifty will firstly trade between today trading range(6000-6052). As higher levels selling today therefore down moves are possible between 5970-6000.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 17-Jan-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(17-Jan-2013)
1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green except CNX SMALLCAP.
2- Diesel deregulation positive news led up moves but not sustaining at higher levels also.
3- White Candle formations.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.00
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.93
Nifty P/E Ratio(17-Jan-2013): 18.20
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,380
BSE Declines : 1,503
NSE Advances : 656
NSE Declines : 779
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- -4,650(-0.69%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- -47,050(-0.92%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- 5,550(0.60%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- 669,050(8.96%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -4,200(-0.25%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- 806,800(10.34%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -116,500(-2.62%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- 1,452,350(24.57%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -421,700(-6.57%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- 138,850(7.41%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19,964.03(146.40 Points & 0.74%)
Nifty- closed at 6,039.20(37.35 Points & 0.62%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,592.85(25.80 Points & 0.30%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,787.15(-1.75 Points & -0.05%)
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