Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 21 to Jan 25,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6231
R2 6157
R1 6110
Avg 6036
S1 5989
S2 5915
S3 5868

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6  6187    Trgt 2
H5  6158    Trgt 1
H4  6130    Long breakout
H3  6097    Go Short
H2  6086
H1  6075
L1  6052
L2  6041
L3  6030    Long
L4  5997    Short Breakout
L5  5969    Trgt 1
L6  5940    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 21 to Jan 25,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 13189

R2 13048

R1 12864

Avg 12723

S1 12539

S2 12398

S3 12214

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 13007     Trgt 2 

H5 12933     Trgt 1

H4 12858    Long breakout 

H3 12769     Go Short 

H2 12739

H1 12709

L1 12650

L2 12620

L3 12590     Long 

L4 12501     Short Breakout 

L5 12426     Trgt 1 

L6 12352     Trgt 2

NIFTY-Jan Put Option-Buying Trade

NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Buy-Positional-SL-14-TGT-64-CMP-28.50(Lalit39)

Pre-Closing Outlook(18-01-2013)

Although strong Global markets and good opening in Indian markets but we were not Bullish and showed our doubts with technical reasons in all the today Outlooks. First 5 hours trading between 6060-6082 and this range broken down after 02:15 PM but before that we told following lines:-

1- At 01:04:PM-"Selling patterns formations at higher levels today"
2- At 11:23 AM-"Minor profit booking at higher levels today,view is cautious and until Nifty will not cross today high(6083) till then next up move will not be considered and valid break down of 6065 will mean that correction about which we have already updated in previous 2 Outlooks"

Same view yet which was updated at 11:23 AM today. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(18-01-2013)

Selling patterns formations at higher levels today 

Mid-session Outlook(18-01-2013)

As selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore Nifty could not sustain at higher levels retested 6065 at 10:48 AM today. Minor profit booking at higher levels today,view is cautious and until Nifty will not cross today high(6083) till then next up move will not be considered and valid break down of 6065 will mean that correction about which we have already updated in previous 2 Outlooks.

Post-open Outlook(18-01-2013)

Although Nifty Jan Fut. has not shown required strength but Nifty Spot is above 6065 after gaining sufficiently required points. As such strong opening and trading so much positive is very much possible in today like heated sentiment therefore next decisive up moves confirmation through sustaining above 6065 after follow up consolidation is still required because selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions.

Pre-open Outlook(18-01-2013)

All the Asian markets are in Green with Nikkei and Hang Sang are more than 2% and 1% up respectively therefore sentiment is strong today morning therefore positive opening will be seen in Indian markets. Good selling seen between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore complete consolidation is required for sustaining above 6065. As Bull Markets consolidate at higher levels and up moves possibilities up to 6331 are still alive therefore rally continuation after follow up consolidation can not be ruled out but follow up selling in heated sentiment today will mean straight fall toward 5970 also.

12 Sessions sideways trading between 5950-6065 with good selling between 6030-6065 in last 3 sessions therefore market is well prepared for down moves also but strong Global markets and declaration of RIL Quaeterly results today therefore firstly follow up buying/selling will be watched and valid break out of 6030-6065 will give following moves confirmations;-

1- Above 6065 will mean rally continuation towards 6239.95/6331
2- Below 6030 will mean sharp down toward 5970/5950.

Down Moves Possibility also within 12 Sessions Range

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- First 4 hours trading between 6000-6031
1- consolidation between 6001-6017
3- First 4 hours trading range broken out after  after Fuel relating positive announcements
4- Selling Patterns between 6040-6052
5- Rising Channel broken down
6- Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
7- Whole day actual trading between 6000-6052 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

First 4 hours trading between 6000-6031 with consolidation between 6001-6017 and first 4 hours trading range broken out after  after Fuel relating positive announcements but selling patterns formations also between 6040-6052 therefore market could not sustain at higher levels and slipped. As Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore this channel also broken down after higher levels seling and closing seen below it today.

12 Sessions trading between 5950-6065 with following immediate supports and resistances:

1- Supports- 5970-6017
2- Resistances- 6030-6065

Intraday selling was seen in previous sessions between 6030-6065 and again selling patterns formations between this range today therefore previous resistance becomes stronger and down moves between 5950-6065 can not be ruled out in the coming sessions. As last 2 hours trading between 6030-60652 was Fuel relating positive announcements generated and market forces reacts in their own manner after such news therefore therefore valid break out of 6030-6065 should be firstly watched tomorrow for next down moves confirmations between 12 sessions range(5950-6065)

If global markets does not gives any side strong sentiment then Nifty will firstly trade between today trading range(6000-6052). As higher levels selling today therefore down moves are possible between 5970-6000.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 17-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 17-Jan-2013 3604.1 3039.9 564.2

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 17-Jan-2013 1423.52 1943.3 -519.78

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 17-Jan-2013

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(17-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green except CNX SMALLCAP.
2- Diesel deregulation positive news led up moves but not sustaining at higher levels also.
3- White Candle formations.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.00
Total Options Put Call Ratio:  0.93
Nifty P/E Ratio(17-Jan-2013): 18.20

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,380
BSE Declines : 1,503
NSE Advances :   656
NSE Declines :   779

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- -4,650(-0.69%)  
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- -47,050(-0.92%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- 5,550(0.60%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- 669,050(8.96%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -4,200(-0.25%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)-  806,800(10.34%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -116,500(-2.62%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)-  1,452,350(24.57%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -421,700(-6.57%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)-  138,850(7.41%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,964.03(146.40 Points & 0.74%)
Nifty- closed at 6,039.20(37.35 Points & 0.62%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,592.85(25.80 Points & 0.30%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,787.15(-1.75 Points & -0.05%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6130

R2 6091

R1 6065

Avg 6026

S1 6000

S2 5961

S3 5935

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6104     Trgt 2 

H5 6089     Trgt 1

H4 6074     Long breakout 

H3 6056     Go Short 

H2 6050

H1 6044

L1 6033

L2 6027

L3 6021     Long 

L4 6003     Short Breakout 

L5 5988     Trgt 1 

L6 5973     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6156

R2 6114

R1 6084

Avg 6042

S1 6012

S2 5970

S3 5940

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  6126    Trgt 2 

H5  6110    Trgt 1

H4  6093    Long breakout 

H3  6073    Go Short 

H2  6067

H1  6060

L1  6047

L2  6040

L3  6034    Long 

L4  6014    Short Breakout 

L5  5997    Trgt 1 

L6  5981    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12931

R2 12853

R1 12771

Avg 12693

S1 12611

S2 12533

S3 12451

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12850     Trgt 2 

H5 12814     Trgt 1

H4 12778     Long breakout 

H3 12734     Go Short 

H2 12719

H1 12704

L1 12675

L2 12660

L3 12646     Long 

L4 12602     Short Breakout 

L5 12565     Trgt 1 

L6 12529     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(17-01-2013)

Indian market gave positive indication through outperforming Global cues and it was updated also at 10:17 AM today. First 4 hours trading between 6001-6031 with consolidation between 6001-6017 today. As 6031 Broken out after Fuel relating positive announcements and after that up moves are positive news generated therefore firstly confirmation is required through sustaining above 6031.

Now Nifty is trading between next resistance range(6030-3065) therefore complete consolidation is required for break out above 6065 but positive news generated short covering by general traders also can not be ruled out within this range.

Valid break out of 6030-3065 is most crucial now for next immediate moves confirmations therefore should be firstly watched.

Mid-session Outlook(17-01-2013)

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) did not hiked Fuel price today and partial deregulation of Diesel decided therefore Indian markets soared. Indian markets gave positive indications immediately after opening and economy favouring decision gave up moves trigger.

As intraday charts are showing consolidation between 6001-6017 today therefore this range will give support but good selling between 6030-3065 yesterday therefore more follow up consolidation is required for next rally above 6065. Nifty traded first 4 hours between 6001-6031 today and firstly sustaining above 6031 should be watched for next rally confirmation because today last half hour up moves are positive news reaction also.

Post-open Outlook(17-01-2013)

Although all the Asian markets are in Red and some are sufficiently down also as well as Dow's Futures is also 35 points down but Indian markets outperformed and .20 up today. It is first positive indication and follow up consolidation is must after good selling yesterday.. Quiet market is expected if big fall is not seen in Global markets.

Let market prepare and intraday  charts form patterns then next expected moves will be updated accordingly,as if now we can say only positive indications development today and also possible that Indian markets will firstly prepare for next moves between 5970-6030.

11 Sessions range trapped market & Big Trend Ahead

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6050-6055 
2- Selling between 6030-6048
3- Sharp down moves in last 40 minutes.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5992-6055.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

9 Sessions sideways trading between 5950-6026 from 02-01-2013 to 14-01-2013 and its break out was seen yesterday but Nifty again slipped into this range after higher levels good selling and closing within this range at 6001.85 today. Now actual trading range has changed after good selling today and valid break out of following range will decide next trend:-

5950-6065

Now we are reproducing all those most crucial technical views which have already been updated  in previous 4 days:-

Following 2 targets were updated in Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing on 13-01-2013:-

1- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 minimum and maximum targets are between 6031-6331.
2- Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 is on and its minimum target is 6239.95.

As Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 has achieved its minimum target after trading above 6031 and made a top of 6068.50 on 15-01-2013 after gaining 1298.15 points therefore its correction beginning possibility after mentioned Wave completion at 6068.50 can not be ruled out. Whenever correction will start then will be deep because market will correct whole 1298.15 points or may be more also if correction starts after making new top formation above 6068.50 

It should be kept in mind that on going Sub Wave-5 which started from 5548.35 on 20-11-2012 is showing Negative Divergence and lacking required force also therefore expected that whole up move of this wave will also be corrected after reversal of on going rally. its detailed analysis has already been updated in following topic on 13-01-2013:-

Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-01-2013)

Although Wave-3 correction will start between 6031-6331 but before that complete selling patterns are required in intraday and minimum on Daily charts,until that will not happen till then any big correction will not be considered. As no such development yet therefore rally continuation will be seen in the coming sessions but with intraday to very short term corrections also. 

As weakness perceived therefore down moves possibilities with technical positions were also updated in all intraday Outlooks and following lines were told:-


1- Told at 11:122 AM-"Intraday charts are showing intraday selling patterns between 6050-6055 today"
2- Told at 12:11 PM-"Confirm intraday selling between 6050-6055 today"
3- Told at 12:40 PM-"Lower top formation at 6041 with minor intraday selling between 6035-6041 and emergence of more down moves possibility toward 6019 and below"
4- Told at 02:42 PM-"As last more than 2 hours trading is showing intraday selling patterns again therefore more down moves are expected below 6019"

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

As per our view above mentioned major correction will be seen after Union Budget-2013 and till then slow up moves toward 6331 are possible. Although Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 has achived its minimum target after trading above 6031 but top of the rally has not got confirmation yet and it may be above present top(6068.50) also. As Nifty reentered into 9 Sessions sideways trading range(now changed to 5950-6065) therefore its valid break out should be firstly watched for following conclusions:-

1- Below 5950 will mean above mentioned complete correction of whole 1298.15 points.
2- Above 6055 will mean up moves toward 6331 and then firstly selling patterns formations are must on intraday and daily charts and after that complete correction of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 gaining points will be seen. 

Tomorrow Outlook

11 Sessions trading trapped between 5950-6065 and news based high volatility last 4 sessions within it. Expected that Nifty will remain range bound within this range in the coming sessions and prepare for next big trend. Immediate supports and resistances between this range are as follows:-

1- Supports- 5970-6000
2- Resistances- 6030-6065

Nifty will firstly trade between 5970-6030 in the coming sessions and prepare for next moves tomorrow . Let market prepare then next moves will be updated in Mid Sessions Outlooks according to intraday charts patterns formations.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 16-Jan-2013 3496.14 2466.64 1029.5

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 16-Jan-2013 1095.85 1787.61 -691.76

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 16-Jan-2013