Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(21-12-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Dec 19 & Dec 20,2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 5915-5937
2- Buying between 5882-5900
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5882-5937

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 continuation with upward Long and Intermediate term trends but sideways Short term trend for the last 15 sessions between 5823-5965. As 15 sessions sideways market therefore its valid break out will have sufficient strength to decide next strong moves,technical positions of last 15 sessions are as follows:-

1- Strong supports are between 5839-5860. 
2- Strong resistances are between 5915-5965.

Pre-open Outlook(21-12-2012)

As Dow's Futures is 188 points down and all the Asian markets are in Red therefore sentiment is weak today morning and gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets. Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 5860-5915 today because strong resistances above and strong supports below this range.  

As Long and Intermediate term trends are up and Indian markets are Bullish therefore expected that finally 15 sessions range valid break out will be seen above 5965 but market will take its own time and will trade some more sessions between 5823-5965.  

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 20-Dec-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 20-Dec-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 20-Dec-2012 2819.74 2352.99 466.75

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 20-Dec-2012 956.37 1400.39 -444.02

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(20-Dec-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.

2- Volatile market today.

3- Bullish hammer Candle formation after good recovery from lower levels.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.99

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.94

Nifty P/E Ratio(20-Dec-2012): 18.44

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,262

BSE Declines : 1,636 

NSE Advances :   698

NSE Declines : 1,027  

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(Dec)- -37,750(-4.31%)

Nifty- 5700 PE(Dec)- -99,350(-1.37%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Dec)- -64,400(-3.07%)

Nifty- 5800 PE(Dec)- -8,500(-0.09%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Dec)- 271,050(4.26%)

Nifty- 5900 PE(Dec)- 7,600(0.11%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Dec)- 698,850(6.17%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Dec)- 122,750(3.78%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Dec)- 245,700(2.68%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Dec)- 213,050(-33.91%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19453.92(-22.08 Points & -0.11%)

Nifty- closed at 5,916.40(-13.20 Points & -0.22%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,471.60(-9.10 Points & -0.11%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,728.00(-5.30 Points & -0.14%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-12-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5997

R2 5967

R1 5941

Avg 5911

S1 5885

S2 5855

S3 5829

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5972     Trgt 2 

H5 5959     Trgt 1

H4 5946     Long breakout 

H3 5931     Go Short 

H2 5926

H1 5921

L1 5910

L2 5905

L3 5900     Long 

L4 5885     Short Breakout 

L5 5872     Trgt 1 

L6 5859     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-12-2012

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 6009

R2 5979

R1 5955

Avg 5925

S1 5901

S2 5871

S3 5847

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5985     Trgt 2 

H5 5973     Trgt 1

H4 5960     Long breakout 

H3 5945     Go Short 

H2 5940

H1 5935

L1 5926

L2 5921

L3 5916     Long 

L4 5901     Short Breakout 

L5 5888     Trgt 1 

L6 5876     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-12-2012

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 12734

R2 12652

R1 12588

Avg 12506

S1 12442

S2 12360

S3 12296

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12671     Trgt 2 

H5 12637     Trgt 1

H4 12604     Long breakout 

H3 12564     Go Short 

H2 12550

H1 12537

L1 12510

L2 12497

L3 12483     Long 

L4 12443     Short Breakout 

L5 12410     Trgt 1 

L6 12376     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook-2 (20-12-2012)

Following line was told yesterday in Post-open Outlook-2:-

volatile moves may also be seen tomorrow after declaration of Gujarat elections results.

As was told yesterday same seen today and intraday volatility clearly seen today.

Intraday supports also seen at lower levels between 5884-5894 today and 1st trading range narrowed also between 5884-5939. Nifty is well trapped between strong supports and strong resistances and now following ranges will be firstly watched:-

1- 5884-5939(Nifty is trading between this range and this range break out will give next moves first indication)
2- 5823-5965(Valid break out of this range will give next trend confirmations)

Mid-session Outlook(20-12-2012)

Although strong global markets and good news from Indian parliament yesterday but we never posted any Bullish views but cautioned in all 5 yesterday Outlooks as well as told for correction also.

Previous resistance was between 5935-5965 and yesterday resistance range(5911-5939) confirmation today through forceful break down today. More down moves can not be ruled out but strong supports lies between 5839-5860 and its break down will not be easily possible . Last 14 sessions trading between 5823-5965 and more sessions trading will be within this range. Expected that finally upward break out will be seen after follow up consolidations within this range but valid break out of 5823-5965 should also be watched for next trend confirmations.

Let market prepare for next moves then will be updated in next Outlooks from intraday charts formations.

Post-open Outlook(20-12-2012)

Although Indian markets opened gap up yesterday but  weakness was was clearly told through under performance and it was updated also at 10:00 AM yesterday resultant Nifty could not cross yesterday higher levels. Intraday trading positions of yesterday are as follows:-

1- Whole day actual trading between 5911-5939
2- Selling between 5927-5939
3- Support between 5911-5920

Nifty traded first hour between 5911-5927 today which is almost within yesterday support range. As both intraday buying and selling yesterday therefore Nifty will trade and prepare for next moves between yesterday trading range(5911-5939) and follow up consolidation/distribution as well as valid break out of this range should be firstly watched today for next immediate moves confirmations. 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-12-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Dec-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5927-5939
2- 5 Times new lows formation
3- Support between 5911-5920
4- Whole day actual trading between 5911-5939

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although gap up opening today but under performance seen and it was immediately updated at 10:00 AM today. As profit booking developed immediately after opening therefore Nifty could not cross 1st hour highs and 5 times new lows formation seen. Market got intraday supports also at lower levels today therefore expected that rally will remain continued after follow up consolidation in the coming sessions.

Both intraday buying and selling today and volatility is also possible after Gujarat elections results tomorrow therefore today intraday trading range(5911-5939) valid break out should be firstly watched for next moves confirmations.  

All trends are up and rally continuation is expected but very short term correction can not be ruled out after higher levels selling today and correction completion confirmation is must before next rally above 5965. Following levels should be firstly watched:-

1- Next support range(5880-5905)
2- Next resistance range(5935-5965)

Expected that Nifty will prepare for next moves between 5880-5965 in the coming sessions.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 19-Dec-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 19-Dec-2012 4483.24 3238.28 1244.96

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 19-Dec-2012 1016.32 1385.38 -369.06

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(19-Dec-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.

2- Most Indices closed positive except CNX FINANCE,CNX FMCG,CNX INFRA and CNX MEDIA.

3- Narrow range trading with small White candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.98

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.91

Nifty P/E Ratio(19-Dec-2012): 18.47

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,630

BSE Declines : 1,337 

NSE Advances :   840 

NSE Declines :   609

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5800 CE(Dec)- -660,800(-21.90%)

Nifty- 5800 PE(Dec)- -113,800(-1.15%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Dec)- 124,050(1.87%)

Nifty- 5900 PE(Dec)- 178,000(2.66%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Dec)- -38,050(-0.33%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Dec)-  478,300(17.12%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Dec)-  616,450(7.21%)

Nifty- 6100 PE(Dec)- -38,850 (-5.73%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,476.00(111.25 Points & 0.57%)

Nifty- closed at 5,929.60(32.80 Points & 0.56%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,480.70(54.00 Points & 0.64%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,733.30(9.95 Points & 0.27%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-12-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5971
R2 5955
R1 5942
Avg 5926
S1 5913
S2 5897
S3 5884

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5958     Trgt 2
H5 5951     Trgt 1
H4 5944     Long breakout
H3 5936     Go Short
H2 5934
H1 5931
L1 5926
L2 5923
L3 5921     Long
L4 5913     Short Breakout
L5 5906     Trgt 1
L6 5899     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-12-2012

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 5985
R2 5973
R1 5959
Avg 5947
S1 5933
S2 5921
S3 5907

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  5972    Trgt 2
H5  5966    Trgt 1
H4  5960    Long breakout
H3  5953    Go Short
H2  5950
H1  5948
L1  5943
L2  5941
L3  5938    Long
L4  5931    Short Breakout
L5  5925    Trgt 1
L6  5919    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-12-2012

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 12760
R2 12689
R1 12617
Avg 12546
S1 12474
S2 12403
S3 12331

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12688     Trgt 2
H5 12656     Trgt 1
H4 12623     Long breakout
H3 12584     Go Short
H2 12571
H1 12558
L1 12531
L2 12518
L3 12505     Long
L4 12466     Short Breakout
L5 12433     Trgt 1
L6 12401     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(19-12-2012)

Although firstly higher levels profit booking but lower levels supports also seen today and more consolidation is required for crossing next resistance(5935-5965). Today intraday trading range(5910-5939) valid break out should be firstly watched for next moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(19-12-2012)

Caution message was immediately updated in 1st hour today after watching under performance of Indian markets and Nifty could not cross today intraday highs as well as continuously formation of new intraday lows. Intraday correction is on and consolidation is required for crossing next resistance.

All trends are up and rally continuation will be seen but today started intraday correction completion confirmation is must before next rally above 5965. Following levels should be firstly watched now:-

1- Next support range(5880-5905)
2- Next resistance range(5935-5965)

Expected that Nifty will prepare for next moves between 5880-5965.

Post-open Outlook-2(19-12-2012)

Sentiment heated today morning due to strong Global cues and positive news(Lok Sabha approving of Companies Bill 2011 and Banking amendment Bill) from Parliament and gap up opening seen but market under performed immediately after opening therefore intraday correction is being seen. As Nifty traded in next resistance range(5935-5965) and some consolidation is also required therefore intraday correction confirmation is must  before next rally above 5965. Following levels should be firstly watched now:-

1- Next support range(5880-5905)
2- Next resistance range(5935-5965)

Expected that Nifty will prepare for next moves between 5880-5965 and some volatile moves may also be seen tomorrow after declaration of Gujarat elections results.

Post-open Outlook(19-12-2012)

Trading between next resistance range(5935-5965) after gap up opening but under performing Global cues today therefore mentioned resistance range has to be firstly watched.

Rally Continuation after correction completion

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Dec-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in intraday chart

1- Panic bottom formation after RBI Credit policy.
2- Consolidation between 5880-5905
3- Whole day actual trading between 5824-5905

Technical Patterns and Formations in intraday chart

As intraday consolidation patterns formations after panic bottom formation seen therefore following conclusive lines were told yesterday in Pre-Closing Outlook(18-12-2012) and being repeated for today market:-

Long term and Intermediate term trends are up and short Term sideways correction going on between 5823-5965 for the last 12 sessions. As correction completion strong indication after panic Bottom formation today therefore now possibility of rally continuation after today short Term correction completion,confirmation will be sustaining above 5920.