Rally continuation after Break Out

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 16-01-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(16-Jan-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 4828-4848
2- Mixed Patterns between 4860-4880
3- Most time consolidation patterns fomations.
4- Whole day trading between 4828-4880

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 4 days Intra Day Chart(Jan 11 to Jan 16,2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Jan 11 to Jan 16,2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 sessions intraday charts

1- Genuine Selling between 4857-4876 before INFY results on 11-01-2012
2- Good Support at lower levels between 4808-4860
3- Mixed Patterns between 4860-4897
4- 4 Days trading between 4804-4898

Conclusions

Genuine selling between 4857-4876 before INFY results on 11-01-2012 and almost in the same range mixed intraday patterns seen in two previous sessions also. Good support also at lower levels therefore last 4 sessions trading range(4804-4898) upward break out possibility is equally high but selling at higher levels also therefore consolilation is firstly required in the coming sessions.

4 Days trading between 4804-4898 and finally break out above 4898 is expected after follow up consolidation in the coming sessions. As genuine selling on 11-01-2012 therefore consolidation is firstly must tomorrow.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 16-Jan-2012

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(16-Jan-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed with minor gains.
2- White Candle.
3- Closing near the highest of the day.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.00
Nifty P/E Ratio(16-Jan-2012): 17.53

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1383
BSE Declines : 1390
NSE Advances : 662
NSE Declines : 788

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(Jan)- -102250(-4.44%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Jan)- +66000(+0.88%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Jan)- +55000(+1.42%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Jan)- +937250(+16.70%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(Jan)- +316600(+5.86%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Jan)- +441200(+16.15%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 4,873.90(+7.90 Points & +0.16%)
Sensex- closed at 16,189.36(+34.74 Points & +0.22% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,647.05(-6.50 Points & -0.10%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,171.75(+87.48 Points & +1.44%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-01-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4946
R2 4913
R1 4893
Avg 4860
S1 4840
S2 4807
S3 4787

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4926     Trgt 2
H5 4914     Trgt 1
H4 4902     Long breakout
H3 4887     Go Short
H2 4882
H1 4877
L1 4868
L2 4863
L3 4858     Long
L4 4843     Short Breakout
L5 4831     Trgt 1
L6 4819     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-01-2012

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 4979
R2 4939
R1 4915
Avg 4875
S1 4851
S2 4811
S3 4787

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4955     Trgt 2
H5 4940     Trgt 1
H4 4926     Long breakout
H3 4908     Go Short
H2 4902
H1 4896
L1 4885
L2 4879
L3 4873     Long
L4 4855     Short Breakout
L5 4841     Trgt 1
L6 4826     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-01-2012

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 9196
R2 9093
R1 9027
Avg 8924
S1 8858
S2 8755
S3 8689

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9132     Trgt 2
H5 9093     Trgt 1
H4 9053     Long breakout
H3 9007     Go Short
H2 8991
H1 8976
L1 8945
L2 8930
L3 8914     Long
L4 8868     Short Breakout
L5 8828     Trgt 1
L6 8789     Trgt 2

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-Jan-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 16-Jan-2012 1980.81 1623.13 357.68

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 16-Jan-2012 649.83 879.38 -229.55

Pre-Closing Outlook(16-01-2012)

All the today markets intraday moves were updated well in advance;

1- As soon as support developed today then upward moves expectation was told and only intraday up moves were seen after our posting in Mid-session Outlook
2- Today trading range was told (4804-4898) on 14-01-2012 and Nifty traded almost whole day within it.

As today intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations therefore up moves expectations have increased today.

Mid-session Outlook(16-01-2012)

Today trading range: 4828-4851
Intraday patterns today: consolidation signals.
Intraday support: 4828-4838
Next moves expectations: Upward

Post-open Outlook(16-01-2012)

Following lines were told 14-01-2012:-

As both higher levels selling and lower levels buying in 3 previous session therefore markets are not prepared for anyside decisive moves and will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between last 3 days trading range(4804-4898) in the beginning of next week

As all the Asian markets were weak today therefore Indian markets are trading in Red since opening today.Good consolidation was seen between 4835-4860 on 13-01-2012 and sustaining below 4835 will be strong signal of downmove.

As good support was seen between 4835-4860 on 13-01-2012 and Nifty is trading between this range since opening today  therefore sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched for next moves confirmations.

Rally Continuation in next week after Consolidations

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook 

(Jan 16 to Jan 20, 2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(13-Jan-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 4835-4860
2- Mixed Patterns between 4875-4897
3- Whole day trading between 4835-4898

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Good support at lower levels but mixed intraday patterns at higher levels therefore more consolidation is required for crossing and sustaining above 4900.

Nifty-EOD Chart(13-Jan-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Pennant Formation
2- Pennant upward break out on 10-01 2011
3- Falling Trendline
4- Falling Trendline break out on 10-01 2011
5- Positive MACD
6- Doji Candle in 3 previous sessions.
7- MACD up ward intersected average line

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Long term and Intermediate term trends are down and short term trend is up at the bottom of 14 months long Corrective Wave 'C'. 4 Sub waves of corrective Wave 'C' has been completed and 5th Sub wave was extended in 5 Waves as well as its completion signal after beginning of rally on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15.

Rally is on after lower levels consolidations and showed strengh after Pennant and Falling Trendline break out on 10-01 2011 but correction also seen after selling on 11-01 2011.  Technicals of 3 previous sessions are as follows:-

1- 3 Doji Candle formation 
2- Both higher levels selling and lower levels buying in 3 previous sessions.
3- 3 days sideways trading between 4804-4898.

As both higher levels selling and lower levels buying in 3 previous session therefore markets are not prepared for anyside decisive moves and will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between last 3 days trading range(4804-4898) in the beginning of next week

As multiple resistances at higher levels therefore consolidation is required before any up move and it is going on for the last 3 sessions. Expected that on going Rally will remain continued after follow up consolidation in next week.

Rally Continuation after Trend Reversal Patterns

Nifty-EOD Chart(13-Jan-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5 Waves OF Wave A correction completed in 2008
2- 'ABC' up moves of Wave B
3- 5th Wave of Wave c is extended
4- 5th Wave of Wave c completion signals at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

As per Elliot Wave Theory:-


"The bottom of wave 4 should not dip below the top of wave 1 of the same degree,at least on a closing price level"


Top of wave 1 was at 4693 and Nifty closed below it 5 days therefore wave 1 validity is doubtful therefore recalculation of waves on long charts is required. It has been concluded that correction of 11 years rally begun in Jan 2008 and Corrective Wave 'C' is on at present.

Short term up moves commenced within it from 21-12-2011 but Wave 'C' termination confirmation is required yet. Indian markets remained sideways for 10 years(1992-2001) and after that more than 6 years rally was seen therefore market will take its own time in consolidation and after that fresh strong rally will be seen to form new highs.

Latest bottom is at 4531.15 and if Nifty sustains above it then Fresh rally wil be considered after crossing of crucial resistances and up trend deciding levels.


Nifty-EOD Chart(13-Jan-2011):-

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As following developments therefore hopes of fresh rally are alive from 4531.15:-

1- 13 is a Fibonacci number and on going up move started in Dec 2011 which is 13th month of Wave 'C' correction.
2- Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern at the bottom of 13 months correction is still intact
3- 109 Sessions sideways market between 4720-5229 and its break out will mean beginning of strong moves..

15 Years Waves Structure in Long Charts

Nifty-Monthly Chart(13-Jan-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in Monthly charts

1- Upward Trend in long chart is intact
2- Wave C is on termination confirmation is required yet

Waves Structure of 15 years as follows:-

775.45 on 31-12-1996            
Wave 1- 1818.15 on 29-02-2000  
Wave 2-  849.95 on 28-09-2001  
Wave 3- 3774.15 on 31-05-2006  
Wave 4- 2595.65 on 30-06-2006
Wave 5- 6357.10 on 31-01-2008        
Wave A- 2252.75 on 31-10-2008      
Wave B- 6338.50 on 30-11-2010  
Wave C- 4531.15 on 30-12-2011(termination confirmation is required yet)  

Conclusions from Monthly chart analysis 

Indian markets are Bullish in Long Charts and correcting since Jan 2008 after 11 years rally. Corrective Wave 'C' is on and short term up moves begun within it from Dec 2011 but Wave 'C' termination confirmation is required yet.

As market is well above rising trendline therefore up trend in Indian markets is vert much intact and expected that strong rally will be seen after the completion of Wave 'C'.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels of Wave 'B' are as follows(6338-2252):-

13.0%- 5806
23.6%- 5373
27.0%- 5234
38.2%- 4777
50.0%- 4295
61.8%- 3812
70.7%- 3449
76.4%- 3216
78.6%- 3126
88.6%- 2717

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 13-Jan-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 13-Jan-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 13-Jan-2012 2508.07 2214.56 293.51

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 13-Jan-2012 1198.43 1375.69 -177.26

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(01-Jan-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Most Indices closed in Green.
2- Volatile market.
3- Intraday consolidation at lower levels.
4- Doji Candle formation

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.06
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Jan-2012): 17.50

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1892
BSE Declines : 922
NSE Advances : 1027
NSE Declines : 449

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(Jan)- -20650(-0.88%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Jan)- +793500(+11.76%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Jan)- +1400(+0.04%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Jan)- +1287650(+27.66%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(Jan)- -37400(-0.65%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Jan)- +572600(+25.82%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 4,866.00(+34.75 Points & +0.72%)
Sensex- closed at 16,154.62(+117.11 Points & +0.73% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,653.55(+62.45 Points & +0.95%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,171.75(+87.48 Points & +1.44%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-01-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4962
R2 4930
R1 4898
Avg 4866
S1 4834
S2 4802
S3 4770

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4930     Trgt 2
H5 4915     Trgt 1
H4 4901     Long breakout
H3 4883     Go Short
H2 4877
H1 4871
L1 4860
L2 4854
L3 4848     Long
L4 4830     Short Breakout
L5 4816     Trgt 1
L6 4801     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-01-2012

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 4988
R2 4952
R1 4915
Avg 4879
S1 4842
S2 4806
S3 4769

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4951     Trgt 2
H5 4934     Trgt 1
H4 4918     Long breakout
H3 4898     Go Short
H2 4891
H1 4884
L1 4871
L2 4864
L3 4857     Long
L4 4837     Short Breakout
L5 4821     Trgt 1
L6 4804     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-01-2012

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 9237
R2 9155
R1 9056
Avg 8974
S1 8875
S2 8793
S3 8694

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9140     Trgt 2
H5 9098     Trgt 1
H4 9057     Long breakout
H3 9007     Go Short
H2 8991
H1 8974
L1 8941
L2 8924
L3 8908     Long
L4 8858     Short Breakout
L5 8817     Trgt 1
L6 8775     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 16 to Jan 20,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5147
R2 5022
R1 4944
Avg 4819
S1 4741
S2 4616
S3 4538

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5076     Trgt 2
H5 5027     Trgt 1
H4 4977     Long breakout
H3 4921     Go Short
H2 4903
H1 4884
L1 4847
L2 4828
L3 4810     Long
L4 4754     Short Breakout
L5 4704     Trgt 1
L6 4655     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 16 to Jan 20,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 9998
R2 9535
R1 9255
Avg 8792
S1 8512
S2 8049
S3 7769

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 9775     Trgt 2
H5 9579     Trgt 1
H4 9383     Long breakout
H3 9179     Go Short
H2 9111
H1 9043
L1 8906
L2 8838
L3 8770     Long
L4 8566     Short Breakout
L5 8370     Trgt 1
L6 8174     Trgt 2