Confirm first 2 hours selling between 4660-4675. and minor down moves within yesterday range will be seen now within yesterday range..
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Post-open Outlook(22-12-2011)
Nifty traded last 29 minutes mixed patterns between 4684-4705 and trading much below this range therefore it is weakness signal and profit booking indication within this range yesterday. Good support and consolidation between following ranges in 3 previous sessions;-
1- 4602-4624(21-12-2011)
2- 4560-4590(19-12-2011 and 20-12-2011)
Nifty will trade between yesterday range first of all and prepare for next moves. Fresh consolidation is required for continuation of yesterday begun Pull Back rally and it is expected also. Coming hours intraday charts formations and sustaining beyond yesterday trading range(4602-4705) will be next moves confirmation.
1- 4602-4624(21-12-2011)
2- 4560-4590(19-12-2011 and 20-12-2011)
Nifty will trade between yesterday range first of all and prepare for next moves. Fresh consolidation is required for continuation of yesterday begun Pull Back rally and it is expected also. Coming hours intraday charts formations and sustaining beyond yesterday trading range(4602-4705) will be next moves confirmation.
4693 is Long Term Trend Decider for 2012
Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook
Nifty-EOD Chart(21-Dec-2011):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave 1 top at 4693.
2- Strong rally and down moves above 4693 in last 25 months.
2- Closing at 4693.15 on 21-12-2011.
Conclusions
Wave 1 begun from 2252.75 on 27-10-2008 and it completed at 4693.
As per Elliot Wave Theory:-
"The bottom of wave 4 should not dip below the top of wave 1 of the same degree,at least on a closing price level"
But Nifty closed below 4693 in 3 previous sessions and gave strong signal as well as almost confirmation of whole last 3 years waves structure failure. As it was a big development therefore following topic was posted on the same day at 02:29:00 AM on 17-12-2011
25 Months Trend and Waves structure Failure on 16-12-2011
As per our view some more confirmations were required for failure of such huge structure therefore its confirmation demand was also told in above topic. Nifty reversed with strong note on 21-12-2011 and closed exactly at 4693.15 as well as revived the survival hopes of 3 years structure and beginning of impulsive Wave 5 after completion of corrective Wave 4.
Nifty-EOD Chart(21-Dec-2011):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave 2 completion at 3919 on 13-07-2009
2- Wave 3 completion at 6338 on 05-11-2010
3- Confirmation required for Wave 4 completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
4- 13 Months Falling Corrective Channel formation
5- No big reversal pattern formation
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
As no big reversal pattern and 13 months down moves were seen in corrective falling channel therefore it was expected that finally corrective Wave 4 will complete and Wave 5 will commence but whole waves structure broken after slipping below 4693. Nifty closed exactly at 4693.15 on 21-12-2011 and survival of 3 years waves structure hopes revived yesterday therefore first of all only sustaining beyond 4693 should be watched because following implications are confirm beyond 4693:-
1- Below 4693 will mean fresh recounting of Waves structure and crashing of Indian markets like World Trade Centre on 11-09-2001.
2- Above 4693 will mean reincarnation of almost buried impulsive waves 5 to form in all time highs in the coming years.
Nifty-EOD Chart(21-Dec-2011):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave 1 top at 4693.
2- Strong rally and down moves above 4693 in last 25 months.
2- Closing at 4693.15 on 21-12-2011.
Conclusions
Wave 1 begun from 2252.75 on 27-10-2008 and it completed at 4693.
As per Elliot Wave Theory:-
"The bottom of wave 4 should not dip below the top of wave 1 of the same degree,at least on a closing price level"
But Nifty closed below 4693 in 3 previous sessions and gave strong signal as well as almost confirmation of whole last 3 years waves structure failure. As it was a big development therefore following topic was posted on the same day at 02:29:00 AM on 17-12-2011
25 Months Trend and Waves structure Failure on 16-12-2011
As per our view some more confirmations were required for failure of such huge structure therefore its confirmation demand was also told in above topic. Nifty reversed with strong note on 21-12-2011 and closed exactly at 4693.15 as well as revived the survival hopes of 3 years structure and beginning of impulsive Wave 5 after completion of corrective Wave 4.
Nifty-EOD Chart(21-Dec-2011):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave 2 completion at 3919 on 13-07-2009
2- Wave 3 completion at 6338 on 05-11-2010
3- Confirmation required for Wave 4 completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
4- 13 Months Falling Corrective Channel formation
5- No big reversal pattern formation
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
As no big reversal pattern and 13 months down moves were seen in corrective falling channel therefore it was expected that finally corrective Wave 4 will complete and Wave 5 will commence but whole waves structure broken after slipping below 4693. Nifty closed exactly at 4693.15 on 21-12-2011 and survival of 3 years waves structure hopes revived yesterday therefore first of all only sustaining beyond 4693 should be watched because following implications are confirm beyond 4693:-
1- Below 4693 will mean fresh recounting of Waves structure and crashing of Indian markets like World Trade Centre on 11-09-2001.
2- Above 4693 will mean reincarnation of almost buried impulsive waves 5 to form in all time highs in the coming years.
As no big reversal pattern and corrective falling channel in last 13 months down moves therefore expected that firstly Wave 4 correction compleletion confirmation through sustaining above 4693 and then impulsive Wave 5 will get confirmation in the coming year as well as 2012 will prove Bullish year after all corrections completion in 2011.
Pull Back continuation after some consolidations
Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 22-12-2011
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(21-dec-2011):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 4602-4624.
2- Strong rally in last 55 minutes.
3- Last 29 minutes mixed patterns between 4684-4705.
4- Whole day trading between 4602-4705.
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Pull Back Rally confirmation after lower levels consolidation and last 55 minutes strong up moves. As last 29 minutes mixed patterns between 4684-4705 also therefore fresh consolidation is required for next up moves and continuation of today started strong Pull back rally.
Expected that today begun Pull Back Rally will remin continued after some more consolidations first.
Conclusions from only today intraday charts analysis have been posted above and more conclusions will be updated before the opening of tomorrow market and it will also be proved that:-
why and how 4693 is most crucial level for deciding the next big moves of coming months and years trend in Indian markets?
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(21-dec-2011):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 4602-4624.
2- Strong rally in last 55 minutes.
3- Last 29 minutes mixed patterns between 4684-4705.
4- Whole day trading between 4602-4705.
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Pull Back Rally confirmation after lower levels consolidation and last 55 minutes strong up moves. As last 29 minutes mixed patterns between 4684-4705 also therefore fresh consolidation is required for next up moves and continuation of today started strong Pull back rally.
Expected that today begun Pull Back Rally will remin continued after some more consolidations first.
Conclusions from only today intraday charts analysis have been posted above and more conclusions will be updated before the opening of tomorrow market and it will also be proved that:-
why and how 4693 is most crucial level for deciding the next big moves of coming months and years trend in Indian markets?
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 21-Dec-2011
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(21-Dec-2011)
Main features of today trading are as follows
1- All the indices closed in Green.
2- Long White Candle.
3- Closing near the highest of the day.
Ratios
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.85
Nifty P/E Ratio(21-Dec-2011): 17.00
Advances & Declines
BSE ADVANCES : 1673
BSE DECLINES : 1096
NSE ADVANCES : 936
NSE DECLINES : 506
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 4600 CE(Dec)- -1857350(-35.66%)
Nifty- 4600 PE(Dec)- +1112150(+22.01%)
Nifty- 4700 CE(Dec)- -531250(-9.78%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Dec)- +1268250(+26.88%)
Nifty- 4800 CE(Dec)- -631050(-11.90%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Dec)- +440900(+13.52%)
Closing
Nifty- closed at 4,693.15(+148.95 Points & +3.28%)
Sensex- closed at 15,685.21(+510.13 Points & +3.36% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,119.90(+82.80 Points & +1.37%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 5,522.19(+56.49 Points & +1.03%)
1- All the indices closed in Green.
2- Long White Candle.
3- Closing near the highest of the day.
Ratios
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.85
Nifty P/E Ratio(21-Dec-2011): 17.00
Advances & Declines
BSE ADVANCES : 1673
BSE DECLINES : 1096
NSE ADVANCES : 936
NSE DECLINES : 506
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 4600 CE(Dec)- -1857350(-35.66%)
Nifty- 4600 PE(Dec)- +1112150(+22.01%)
Nifty- 4700 CE(Dec)- -531250(-9.78%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Dec)- +1268250(+26.88%)
Nifty- 4800 CE(Dec)- -631050(-11.90%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Dec)- +440900(+13.52%)
Closing
Nifty- closed at 4,693.15(+148.95 Points & +3.28%)
Sensex- closed at 15,685.21(+510.13 Points & +3.36% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,119.90(+82.80 Points & +1.37%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 5,522.19(+56.49 Points & +1.03%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-12-2011
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 4839
R2 4773
R1 4733
Avg 4667
S1 4627
S2 4561
S3 4521
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 4801 Trgt 2
H5 4776 Trgt 1
H4 4751 Long breakout
H3 4722 Go Short
H2 4712
H1 4702
L1 4683
L2 4673
L3 4663 Long
L4 4634 Short Breakout
L5 4609 Trgt 1
L6 4584 Trgt 2
R3 4839
R2 4773
R1 4733
Avg 4667
S1 4627
S2 4561
S3 4521
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 4801 Trgt 2
H5 4776 Trgt 1
H4 4751 Long breakout
H3 4722 Go Short
H2 4712
H1 4702
L1 4683
L2 4673
L3 4663 Long
L4 4634 Short Breakout
L5 4609 Trgt 1
L6 4584 Trgt 2
Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-12-2011
Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels
R3 4865
R2 4795
R1 4753
Avg 4683
S1 4641
S2 4571
S3 4529
Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 4825 Trgt 2
H5 4798 Trgt 1
H4 4772 Long breakout
H3 4741 Go Short
H2 4731
H1 4721
L1 4700
L2 4690
L3 4680 Long
L4 4649 Short Breakout
L5 4623 Trgt 1
L6 4596 Trgt 2
R3 4865
R2 4795
R1 4753
Avg 4683
S1 4641
S2 4571
S3 4529
Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 4825 Trgt 2
H5 4798 Trgt 1
H4 4772 Long breakout
H3 4741 Go Short
H2 4731
H1 4721
L1 4700
L2 4690
L3 4680 Long
L4 4649 Short Breakout
L5 4623 Trgt 1
L6 4596 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-12-2011
Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels
R3 8636
R2 8442
R1 8320
Avg 8126
S1 8004
S2 7810
S3 7688
Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 8524 Trgt 2
H5 8448 Trgt 1
H4 8371 Long breakout
H3 8284 Go Short
H2 8255
H1 8226
L1 8169
L2 8140
L3 8111 Long
L4 8024 Short Breakout
L5 7947 Trgt 1
L6 7871 Trgt 2
R3 8636
R2 8442
R1 8320
Avg 8126
S1 8004
S2 7810
S3 7688
Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 8524 Trgt 2
H5 8448 Trgt 1
H4 8371 Long breakout
H3 8284 Go Short
H2 8255
H1 8226
L1 8169
L2 8140
L3 8111 Long
L4 8024 Short Breakout
L5 7947 Trgt 1
L6 7871 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook-2(21-12-2011)
Following confirmations after break out of 4645 today:-
1- Trend reversal after last 2 days base formations
2- Pull back rally confirmations after last 2 days consolidations
3- Survival confirmation of Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern
As Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern survival confirmation today therefore all the up moves hopes revived today which were buried after last Friday last 2 hours crash. Continuation of Pull Back Rally expected in the coming sessions.
1- Trend reversal after last 2 days base formations
2- Pull back rally confirmations after last 2 days consolidations
3- Survival confirmation of Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern
As Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern survival confirmation today therefore all the up moves hopes revived today which were buried after last Friday last 2 hours crash. Continuation of Pull Back Rally expected in the coming sessions.
Pre-Closing Outlook(21-12-2011)
Gap up opening and then Up moves seen after lower levels consolidations today but Nifty slipped from intraday higher levels after forming intraday high at 4645.30. Following line was told in Post-open Outlook today;-
Sustaining above 4640 will be survival confirmation of Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern.
Profit booking near 4640 seen today. As mixed intraday patterns today with lower levels consolidations and higher levels distribution therefore no clear positions formations yet and following lines should be kept in mind for next immediate moves confirmations;-
Break out by force or sustaining beyond today trading range(4602-4645) will be next moves confirmations.
Sustaining above 4640 will be survival confirmation of Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern.
Profit booking near 4640 seen today. As mixed intraday patterns today with lower levels consolidations and higher levels distribution therefore no clear positions formations yet and following lines should be kept in mind for next immediate moves confirmations;-
Break out by force or sustaining beyond today trading range(4602-4645) will be next moves confirmations.
Mid-session Outlook(21-12-2011)
Range bound market between 5602-5625 with mixed intraday patterns and break out by force or sustaining beyond mentioned today trading range will be next moves confirmations.
Crucial levels have already been posted in previous Outlooks which should be kept in mind also for next trend confirmation.
Crucial levels have already been posted in previous Outlooks which should be kept in mind also for next trend confirmation.
Post-open Outlook(21-12-2011)
Intraday consolidation was seen in last 2 sessions and it was updated also in the Outlooks. Confirm base formation between 4560-4590 and;-
1- Until Nifty will not sustain below 4560 till then down moves will not be considered.
2- Sustaining above 4640 will be survival confirmation of Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern.
3- Crossing of next resistance range(4750-4840) will be sustained rally confirmation.
As all trends are down therefore above mentioned confirmations are required for decisive upmoves confirmations otherwise more upmoves and continuation of today begun rally is expected.
1- Until Nifty will not sustain below 4560 till then down moves will not be considered.
2- Sustaining above 4640 will be survival confirmation of Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern.
3- Crossing of next resistance range(4750-4840) will be sustained rally confirmation.
As all trends are down therefore above mentioned confirmations are required for decisive upmoves confirmations otherwise more upmoves and continuation of today begun rally is expected.
Short Term Up Trend On Cards
Nifty-Micro Analysis of 2 days Intra Day Chart(Dec 19 & Dec 20,2011)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Dec 19 & Dec 20,2011):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 sessions intraday charts
1- Two days consolidation 4560-4590 in last 2 days
2- Last half hour consolidation between 4532-4552 on 20-12-2011
Conclusions
Indian markets closed today at the lowest of 2 days and also at 13 months lowest but intraday patterns of last 2 days are showing confolidation formations therefore last 9 days down move stopping and its retracement is possible from today lowest( 4531.15). Following levels and ranges will be watched tomorrow for next short term trend confirmation:-
1- Last two sessions consolidations- 4532-4552 & 4560-4590
2- Last two sessions trading range- 4532-4620.
3- 4640
As last two sessions consolidation patterns therefore short term up trend possibility is alive and one by one following levels will give next moves confirmations:-
1- 4590(Above will mean strong indication of up moves after consolidation)
2- 4620(Above will be confirmation last 2 days consolidations)
3- 4640(Sustaining above will be survival confirmation of Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern.
Up moves are expected above levels will be short term up trend confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Dec 19 & Dec 20,2011):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Two days consolidation 4560-4590 in last 2 days
2- Last half hour consolidation between 4532-4552 on 20-12-2011
Conclusions
Indian markets closed today at the lowest of 2 days and also at 13 months lowest but intraday patterns of last 2 days are showing confolidation formations therefore last 9 days down move stopping and its retracement is possible from today lowest( 4531.15). Following levels and ranges will be watched tomorrow for next short term trend confirmation:-
1- Last two sessions consolidations- 4532-4552 & 4560-4590
2- Last two sessions trading range- 4532-4620.
3- 4640
As last two sessions consolidation patterns therefore short term up trend possibility is alive and one by one following levels will give next moves confirmations:-
1- 4590(Above will mean strong indication of up moves after consolidation)
2- 4620(Above will be confirmation last 2 days consolidations)
3- 4640(Sustaining above will be survival confirmation of Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern.
Up moves are expected above levels will be short term up trend confirmations.
Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(20-Dec-2011)
Main features of today trading are as follows
1- All the indices closed in Red near Day's lowest levels
2- Long Black Candle.
3- Closing at lowest of 13 months correction.
Ratios
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.84
Nifty P/E Ratio(20-Dec-2011): 16.46
Advances & Declines
BSE ADVANCES : 866
BSE DECLINES : 1885
NSE ADVANCES : 364
NSE DECLINES : 1095
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 4500 CE(Dec)- +1073750(+65.98%)
Nifty- 4500 PE(Dec)- 409650(+5.69%)
Nifty- 4600 CE(Dec)- +1256600(+31.04%)
Nifty- 4600 PE(Dec)- -249600(-4.39%)
Nifty- 4700 CE(Dec)- +730750(+15.45%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Dec)- -299950(-5.58%)
Closing
Nifty- closed at 4,544.20(-68.90 Points & -1.49%)
Sensex- closed at 15,175.08(-204.26 Points & -1.33% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,037.10(-132.35 Points & -2.15%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 5,465.70(-80.46 Points & -1.45%)
1- All the indices closed in Red near Day's lowest levels
2- Long Black Candle.
3- Closing at lowest of 13 months correction.
Ratios
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.84
Nifty P/E Ratio(20-Dec-2011): 16.46
Advances & Declines
BSE ADVANCES : 866
BSE DECLINES : 1885
NSE ADVANCES : 364
NSE DECLINES : 1095
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 4500 CE(Dec)- +1073750(+65.98%)
Nifty- 4500 PE(Dec)- 409650(+5.69%)
Nifty- 4600 CE(Dec)- +1256600(+31.04%)
Nifty- 4600 PE(Dec)- -249600(-4.39%)
Nifty- 4700 CE(Dec)- +730750(+15.45%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Dec)- -299950(-5.58%)
Closing
Nifty- closed at 4,544.20(-68.90 Points & -1.49%)
Sensex- closed at 15,175.08(-204.26 Points & -1.33% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,037.10(-132.35 Points & -2.15%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 5,465.70(-80.46 Points & -1.45%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-12-2011
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 4716
R2 4676
R1 4610
Avg 4570
S1 4504
S2 4464
S3 4398
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 4650 Trgt 2
H5 4626 Trgt 1
H4 4602 Long breakout
H3 4573 Go Short
H2 4563
H1 4553
L1 4534
L2 4524
L3 4514 Long
L4 4485 Short Breakout
L5 4461 Trgt 1
L6 4437 Trgt 2
R3 4716
R2 4676
R1 4610
Avg 4570
S1 4504
S2 4464
S3 4398
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 4650 Trgt 2
H5 4626 Trgt 1
H4 4602 Long breakout
H3 4573 Go Short
H2 4563
H1 4553
L1 4534
L2 4524
L3 4514 Long
L4 4485 Short Breakout
L5 4461 Trgt 1
L6 4437 Trgt 2
Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-12-2011
Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels
R3 4718
R2 4679
R1 4616
Avg 4577
S1 4514
S2 4475
S3 4412
Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 4656 Trgt 2
H5 4633 Trgt 1
H4 4610 Long breakout
H3 4582 Go Short
H2 4572
H1 4563
L1 4544
L2 4535
L3 4525 Long
L4 4497 Short Breakout
L5 4474 Trgt 1
L6 4451 Trgt 2
R3 4718
R2 4679
R1 4616
Avg 4577
S1 4514
S2 4475
S3 4412
Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 4656 Trgt 2
H5 4633 Trgt 1
H4 4610 Long breakout
H3 4582 Go Short
H2 4572
H1 4563
L1 4544
L2 4535
L3 4525 Long
L4 4497 Short Breakout
L5 4474 Trgt 1
L6 4451 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-12-2011
Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels
R3 8149
R2 8060
R1 7928
Avg 7839
S1 7707
S2 7618
S3 7486
Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 8019 Trgt 2
H5 7968 Trgt 1
H4 7918 Long breakout
H3 7857 Go Short
H2 7837
H1 7817
L1 7776
L2 7756
L3 7736 Long
L4 7675 Short Breakout
L5 7625 Trgt 1
L6 7574 Trgt 2
R3 8149
R2 8060
R1 7928
Avg 7839
S1 7707
S2 7618
S3 7486
Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 8019 Trgt 2
H5 7968 Trgt 1
H4 7918 Long breakout
H3 7857 Go Short
H2 7837
H1 7817
L1 7776
L2 7756
L3 7736 Long
L4 7675 Short Breakout
L5 7625 Trgt 1
L6 7574 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(20-12-2011)
Intraday up moves after lower levels intraday support but sharp fall from intraday highs and highly volatile market today. Condition of sustaining beyond 4640 was told slipped today after forming high at 4637.25.
Although 1.5% down today but intraday patterns of today are not showing selling patterns but intraday consolidation formations seen therefore next down moves confirmation is required through sustaining below 4531.
Although 1.5% down today but intraday patterns of today are not showing selling patterns but intraday consolidation formations seen therefore next down moves confirmation is required through sustaining below 4531.
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