Sustaining beyond 4640 will decide the fate of Bulls and Bears

Weekly Outlook(Dec 19 to Dec 23,2011)


Technical Analysis and Research of EOD charts,Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 3 Charts therefore not being repeated. Just click following topic links and go through detailed analysis for trading in nexr week:-

1-25 Months Trend and Waves structure Failure on 16-12-2011
2-Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern is Intact
3-Bounce back Possible Next Monday

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Nifty closed at the lowest of 13 months correction as well as 25 months lowest closing seen last Friday. As trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in last 89 Sessions at the bottom of 13 months correction and it is still intact therefore up moves hopes after correction completion are still alive.

Previous bottom was at 4640 and NIfty closed above it last Friday therefore more confirmations are required for heavy break down below 4640 and either forceful breaking of 4640 or sustaining below 4640 will be huge down fall confirmation.

As sharp fall last Friday and indicators are showing positive divergence therefore Indian markets may bounce next Monday and Indian markets will firstly give confirmation of next moves through sustaining beyond 4640 and then Next big move will be seen.

Confirmation through sustaining beyond 4640 is firstly required in the next couple of sessions and next week final moves will be seen according to sustaining beyond 4640..

Bounce back Possible Next Monday

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(16-dec-2011):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 4772-4815
2- 190 Points fall and Panic Bottom formation in 1 Hour and 44 Minutes
3- Positive cross over in MACD
4- Oversold intraday Indicators.
5- Indicators recovery from oversold zone
6- Positive divergence in oversold zone

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Panic bottom formations after 190 points fall in 104 minutes and such formations are seen at the time of trend reversal also but more confirmations are required in the coming couple of sessions. As intraday indicators are showing positive divergence in oversold zone therefore Bounce Back is expected on coming Monday. Although Dead Cat Bounce possibility also can not be ruled out but  retracement of 190 fall according to Fibonacci levels can not be ruled out. Crucial 3 Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:-

38.2%- 4701
50.0%- 4724
61.8%- 4746

Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern is Intact

Nifty-EOD Chart(16-Dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 13 Months correction
2- Trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in 89 Sessions at the bottom of 13 months correction.

Conclusions

Closing at the lowest of 89 Sessions Trend reversal Broadening Pattern but Up moves hopes are alive because pattern is still intact. If Nifty sustaining below 4629 or forcefully breaking down in the coming couple of sessions then Indian markets will crash like World Trade Centre on 11-09-2001.

25 Months Trend and Waves structure Failure on 16-12-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(16-Dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 25 Months lowest closing on 16-12-2011
2- Top of Wave 1-4693
3- 13 Months corrective Wave 4-closing at 4629 on 16-12-2011

Conclusions

25 Months lowest closing on 16-12-2011 and Nifty slipped and closed below the top of Wave 1.

As per Elliot Wave Theory:-


"The bottom of wave 4 should not dip below the top of wave 1 of the same degree,at least on a closing price level"

25 Months structure and Wave 4 failure on 16-12-2011. Almost confirmations but closing above 4640 therefore little more confirmations are required. As huge structure and long term waves formations are at stake therefore either forceful breaking down of 4640 or sustaining below 4640 should also be watched for confirmations in the coming couple of sessions.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 16-Dec-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-Dec-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 16-Dec-2011 2235.54 2455.79 -220.25

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 16-Dec-2011 1159.08 823.78 335.3

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-12-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4960
R2 4889
R1 4770
Avg 4699
S1 4580
S2 4509
S3 4390

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4841     Trgt 2
H5 4798     Trgt 1
H4 4755     Long breakout
H3 4703     Go Short
H2 4685
H1 4668
L1 4633
L2 4616
L3 4598     Long
L4 4546     Short Breakout
L5 4503     Trgt 1
L6 4460     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-12-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 4995
R2 4917
R1 4780
Avg 4702
S1 4565
S2 4487
S3 4350

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4858     Trgt 2
H5 4810     Trgt 1
H4 4761     Long breakout
H3 4702     Go Short
H2 4682
H1 4662
L1 4623
L2 4603
L3 4583     Long
L4 4524     Short Breakout
L5 4475     Trgt 1
L6 4427     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-12-2011

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 9009
R2 8817
R1 8478
Avg 8286
S1 7947
S2 7755
S3 7416

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 8672     Trgt 2
H5 8552     Trgt 1
H4 8431     Long breakout
H3 8285     Go Short
H2 8236
H1 8187
L1 8090
L2 8041
L3 7992     Long
L4 7846     Short Breakout
L5 7726     Trgt 1
L6 7605     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Dec 19 to Dec 23,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5113
R2 5011
R1 4831
Avg 4729
S1 4549
S2 4447
S3 4267

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 4934     Trgt 2
H5 4870     Trgt 1
H4 4806     Long breakout
H3 4728     Go Short
H2 4702
H1 4676
L1 4625
L2 4599
L3 4573     Long
L4 4495     Short Breakout
L5 4431     Trgt 1
L6 4367     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Dec 19 to Dec 23,2011)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 9478
R2 9199
R1 8685
Avg 8406
S1 7892
S2 7613
S3 7099

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 8968     Trgt 2
H5 8787     Trgt 1
H4 8607     Long breakout
H3 8389     Go Short
H2 8316
H1 8243
L1 8098
L2 8025
L3 7952     Long
L4 7734     Short Breakout
L5 7554     Trgt 1
L6 7373     Trgt 2

NIFTY-Dec F&O-1st Buying of 16-12-2011-Trade

NIFTY(Dec Call Option-Buy-Positional)SL-4624-TGT-4714-S.P.FOR Call-4700(Dec Fut-Rates for all Options)-CMP-4642(No covering today)

Pre-open Outlook(16-12-2011)

Almost flat to positive and quiet Global markets but Indian markets may be volatile on the back of RBI Credit Policy. Nifty traded last more than one hour with intraday consolidation patterns between 4735-4762 yesterday and finally sustaining beyond this range will be next moves first confirmations.

Finally positive markets are expected today and sustaining beyond 4735-4762 will be next decisive moves confirmation range.

Up moves and Positive market on 16-12-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(15-dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 4675-4700
2- Last more than one hour consolidation at higher level between 4735-4762
3- Whole day intraday consolidation formations.
4- Whole day trading between 4675-4767

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Up moves after lower levels consolidation and after that last more than one hour again consolidation today therefore more up moves are expected in the coming sessions.

Although multiple resistances at higher levels and decisive rally will get confirmation after sustaining above minimum next resistance(4800-4838) but minimum its testing and positive markets expected tomorrow because today whole day intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations.

Expected that Nifty will finally sustain above 4838 after today bottom formation and let it happen then next moves will be discussed.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 15-Dec-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 15-Dec-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 15-Dec-2011 2991.84 3315.12 -323.28

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 15-Dec-2011 986.71 938.62 48.09

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(15-Dec-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing.
2- White Candle
3- Up moves after support at lower levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.96
Nifty P/E Ratio(15-Dec-2011): 17.19

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 885
BSE DECLINES : 1846
NSE ADVANCES : 369
NSE DECLINES : 1075

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4600 CE(Dec)- +427100(+71.35%)
Nifty- 4600 PE(Dec)- +51700(+1.03%)

Nifty- 4700 CE(Dec)- +824900(+26.84%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Dec)- +288850(+3.23%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Dec)- -375050(-7.92%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Dec)- -509350(-8.92%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,746.35(-16.90 Points & -0.35%)
Sensex- closed at 15,836.47(-44.67 Points & -0.28% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,398.75(-48.60 Points & -0.75%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 5,781.04(-88.94 Points & -1.52%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-12-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4880
R2 4824
R1 4785
Avg 4729
S1 4690
S2 4634
S3 4595

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4842     Trgt 2
H5 4820     Trgt 1
H4 4798     Long breakout
H3 4772     Go Short
H2 4763
H1 4754
L1 4737
L2 4728
L3 4719     Long
L4 4693     Short Breakout
L5 4671     Trgt 1
L6 4649     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-12-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 4916
R2 4850
R1 4803
Avg 4737
S1 4690
S2 4624
S3 4577

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4872     Trgt 2
H5 4845     Trgt 1
H4 4819     Long breakout
H3 4788     Go Short
H2 4777
H1 4767
L1 4746
L2 4736
L3 4725     Long
L4 4694     Short Breakout
L5 4668     Trgt 1
L6 4641     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-12-2011

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 8689
R2 8606
R1 8528
Avg 8445
S1 8367
S2 8284
S3 8206

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 8612     Trgt 2
H5 8575     Trgt 1
H4 8538     Long breakout
H3 8494     Go Short
H2 8479
H1 8464
L1 8435
L2 8420
L3 8405     Long
L4 8361     Short Breakout
L5 8324     Trgt 1
L6 8287     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(15-12-2011)

When Indian markets were near lower levels then following line was told in Mid-session Outlook today:-

As intraday patterns are showing consolidations therefore up moves are expected

More than 1% upmoves were seen after above message today. Nifty got support again within 4675-4690 and between crucial support range((4640-4690) but multiple resistances at higher levels and decisive rally will get confirmation after sustaining above minimum next resistance(4800-4838)

As sentimrnt is heated at this moment therefore minor intraday correction is expected but finally sustaining above 4690 will mean continuation of today begun pull back rally in the coming sessions.