Mid-session Outlook-2(13-12-2011)

Crucial technical positions for today trading is as follows:-

1- Today first trading range is 4745-4780
2- Intraday confirm support at lower levels between 4745-4765 today. 
3- Selling between 4780-4815 in last more than 3 hours yesterday 

More consolidation is required between 4780-4815 for a decisive short term up move. Nifty is trading just below 4800 but confirmation will be after sustaining above 4815. Next decisive moves confirmation range is 4745-4815 and should be firstly watched. 

Mid-session Outlook(13-12-2011)

Volatile market after opening and out performing global markets since opening today. Nifty traded most time between 4745-4780 today,as selling seen between 4780-4815 in last more than 3 hours therefore any upmove confirmation will be after sustaining above 4815. Sustaining below 4745 will mean sharp down moves.

Only volatility and no clear intraday trading patterns therefore sustaining beyond today first trading range(4745-4780) will be next moves confirmation.

Last Hope for Bulls after Most Depressing IIP Data is 4640-4690

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(12-12-2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(12-dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Positive trading
2- Sharp fall after weak IIP data
3- Selling between 4780-4815 in last more than 3 hours.
4- Whole day trading between 4756-4896

Nifty-EOD Chart(12-Dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- All trends are down
2- Trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in last 4 months at the bottom of 13 months correction.
3- Strong supports between 4640-4690 at the bottom of Broadening Pattern

Conclusions from intra day and EOD charts

All trends turned down and sharp declines seen after most depressing IIP data dclaration today as well as Nifty closed near the lower levels of next support range(4758-4800). As intraday selling was seen during last more than 3 hours between 4780-4815 today therefore more down moves will be seen and expected that last support range of Broadening Pattern(4640-4690) will be tested in the coming sessions.

As strong supports between 4640-4690 therefore sustaining beyond will be firstly watched tomorrow for next moves confirmations and now this support range is last hope for Bulls.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 12-Dec-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 12-Dec-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 12-Dec-2011 1522.08 1950.38 -428.3

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 12-Dec-2011 1116.61 950.32 166.29

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(12-Dec-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long Black Candle.
2- Weak IIP daya triggered sharp declines.
3- All the Indices closed in Red except IT.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.86
Nifty P/E Ratio(12-Dec-2011): 17.25

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 798
BSE DECLINES : 1956
NSE ADVANCES : 289
NSE DECLINES : 1153

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(Dec)- +1540900(+159.59%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Dec)- +377700(+4.59%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Dec)- +1374000(+45.59%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Dec)- +144250(+2.44%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(Dec)- +218550(+4.84%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Dec)- -446350(-9.13%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,764.60(-102.10 Points & -2.10%)
Sensex- closed at 15,870.35(-343.11 Points & -2.12% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,515.00(-139.25 Points & -2.09%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 5,960.48 (-93.03 Points & -1.54%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-12-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5019
R2 4964
R1 4864
Avg 4809
S1 4709
S2 4654
S3 4554

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4919     Trgt 2
H5 4884     Trgt 1
H4 4849     Long breakout
H3 4806     Go Short
H2 4792
H1 4778
L1 4749
L2 4735
L3 4721     Long
L4 4678     Short Breakout
L5 4643     Trgt 1
L6 4608     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-12-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 5024
R2 4969
R1 4871
Avg 4816
S1 4718
S2 4663
S3 4565

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4926     Trgt 2
H5 4891     Trgt 1
H4 4857     Long breakout
H3 4815     Go Short
H2 4801
H1 4787
L1 4758
L2 4744
L3 4730     Long
L4 4688     Short Breakout
L5 4654     Trgt 1
L6 4619     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-12-2011

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 9286
R2 9115
R1 8841
Avg 8670
S1 8396
S2 8225
S3 7951

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9015     Trgt 2
H5 8913     Trgt 1
H4 8811     Long breakout
H3 8689     Go Short
H2 8648
H1 8607
L1 8526
L2 8485
L3 8444     Long
L4 8322     Short Breakout
L5 8220     Trgt 1
L6 8118     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(12-12-2011)

Although intraday support last Friday but sharp down after negative IIP numbers and Nifty slipped below 4800. As intraday charts of today are showing selling therefore more down moves are expected in the coming sessions.

October IIP @ -5.1%(YoY)

Mid-session Outlook(12-12-2011)

Poor and disappoing IIP data triggered down moves and Nifty slipped below 4842. Most depressing point is Capital Goods numbers are at -25.5%. As so high negative growth therefore market reacts through sharp declines. Although market recovered and Nifty is trading above 4842 but market final reaction on today declared IIP Numbers will be understood through sustaining beyond 4842.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(12-12-2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD charts,Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 4 Charts therefore not being repeated:-

1- Bullish Sub-Wave-3 is on cards after Correction completion
2-Two Bullish Candlestick patterns formation on 09-12-2011
3- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 12-12-2011

Asian markets are moderately up after strong rally in US and European markets last Friday therefore sentiment is positive today morning and Indian markets will open in Green and firstly trade within last Friday trading range(4842-4918).

Intraday consolidation patterns with two Bullish Candles patterns formation was seen last Friday,as per Candlestick theory confirmation of the trend reversal would be a higher open on the next trading day and that will be seen today. Expected that finally sustaining above 4918 will be seen after follow up buying in the coming sessions. Lower levels intraday support and fresh rally beginning indications after correction completion last Friday but crossing of next first resistance range( 4928-4980) is must for confirmations because long and Intermediate term trends are down at present.

Expected that follow up consolidation will be seen today and Indian markets will finally move and sustain above 4918 and close positive today.

Recent Topics for Next week Trading(Dec 12 to Dec 16,2011)

Following 3 topics have been posted for next week trading and some more topics will be posted before the opening on next Monday Markets. Just click link to go through and analyse charts also:-

1- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 12-12-2011
2- Two Bullish Candlestick patterns formation on 09-12-2011
3- Bullish Sub-Wave-3 is on cards after Correction completion

Bullish Sub-Wave-3 is on cards after Correction completion

Weekly Outlook(Dec 12 to Dec 16,2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart(09-Dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling Trend line in 13 Months correction.
2- Trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in last 4 months at the bottom of 13 months correction.
3- Pull Back Rally is on from the bottom of correction

Conclusions

As trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in last 4 months at the bottom of 13 months correction therefore finally long term downward trend reversal is expected and it is also possible that ongoing Pull Back Rally may reverse 13 months long down trend.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Pull Back rally faced correction in previous week but correction completion patterns also seen on 09-Dec-2011 therefore expected that Nifty will not slip below the lowest of previous week(4841.75) and coming week will prove a Bullish weak as well as new highs of Pull back rally will be formed in the coming week.

Two Bullish Candlestick patterns formation on 09-12-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(09-Dec-2011):-

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Nifty-EOD Chart(09-Dec-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in last 4 months at the bottom of 13 months correction.
2- Rally commencement on 24-11-2011 from 4660.
3- Correction of rally on 07-12-2011 from 5099.
4- Trend reversal two Bullish Candles pattern formation on intraday lowest at 4842 on 09-12-2011.

Conclusions

Two Bullish Candles patterns formation are as follows:-

1- Long legged Bullish Gravestone Doji- Low/Moderate Bullish reversal Candle
2- Doji Star Bullish- Moderate Bullish reversal Candle formation also seen.

As per theory confirmation of the trend reversal would be a higher open on the next trading day.

As intraday consolidation patterns also developed within Doji Candle and it was updated also during trading hours on 09-12-2011 therefore strong indications of previous week correction completion at 4642 with fresh up moves beginning from 12-12-2011.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 12-12-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(09-dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between- 4844-4882
2- Selling between- 4900-4917
3- Whole day trading between 4844-4917

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following moves and conclusions from intraday charts were projected today:-

1-Mid-session Outlook-"Consolidation signals emerged at lower levels today therefore short term up moves are expected and correction completion confirmation will be after sustaining above 4890"

2- Pre-Closing Outlook-"today intraday patterns are showing consolidation indications therefore upmoves hopes from today lower levels are alive despite more than 1.5% down closing today"

Although higher levels selling but whole day intraday patterns are showing consolidations therefore finally rally is expected in next week after correction completion today at 4841.75.

Pre-Closing Outlook(09-12-2011)

As soon as consolidation signals emerged at lower levels and short term up moves got confirmation then it was updated with the condition of sustaining above 4890 in Mid-session Outlook today. Good intraday up moves were seen also but selling at higher levels therefore lost almost whole intraday gains and slips to intraday lower levels after moving below 4890..


As lower levels buying and higher levels selling therefore break out of today trading range will be next moves confirmations but today intraday patterns are showing consolidation indications therefore upmoves hopes from today lower levels are alive despite more than 1.5% down closing today.

Mid-session Outlook(09-12-2011)

Consolidation signals emerged at lower levels today therefore short term up moves are expected and correction completion confirmation will be after sustaining above 4890.

Post-open Outlook(09-12-2011)

Following lines were told in 2 previous lotlooks which proved 100% accurate today:-

1- In Pre-Closing Outlook yesterday-"more down moves possibilities turned higher after breaking down of that support range in which Nifty is trading(4920-4950)"

2- Pre-open Outlook today-"Nifty will firstly trade between 4840-4890 after gap down opening. Indian markets will prepare for next moves within this range"

Nifty traded most of the time between 4840-4890 in first hour after gap down opening today but only high volatility and sharp intraday surge after 17 European countries agreement positive news. As 50.0% retracement level(4869) is also lying within mentioned today 1st trading range therefore this range is crucial and sustaining beyond this range will be next moves confirmation.

Only volatility within mentioned range today therefore no conclusive intraday patterns formations. Let market prepare and formation of intraday patterns complete then conclusions will be posted in the coming outlooks in the same manner as was told for down moves possibility in Pre-Closing Outlook yesterday.

Pre-open Outlook(09-12-2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD and Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 2 Charts therefore not being repeated:-

Correcion of Pull Back Rally is on

Asian markets are .70% to 1.4% down today morning after weak closing in US and European markets yesterday therefore sentiment is dampened and Nifty will firstly trade between 4840-4890 after gap down opening. Indian markets will prepare for next moves within this range and follow up buying/selling within this range as well as sustaining beyond this range will be next immediate moves confirmation.

Correcion of Pull Back Rally is on was posted yesterday and one addition in last lines which is as follows;-

1- 50.0% retracement level- 4869
2- 61.8% retracement level- 4815
3- Next support range- 4755-4800

Correcion of Pull Back Rally is on

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(9-12-2011)

Fibonacci Retracement Levels in Nifty-EOD Chart(08-Dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 8 sessions Pull Back rally.
2- Rally completion near 61.8% retracement level
3- correction of rally is on.

Conclusions

Down moves started from 5400 on 28-10-2011 which stopped and reversed at 4640. Main Fibonacci Retracement upward Levels of this down move are as follows:-

23.6%- 4819
38.2%- 4930
50.0%- 5020
61.8%- 5109
76.4%- 5220

Short term up moves begun from 4640 which halted near 61.8% retracement levels at 5099 and its correction commenced. Main Fibonacci Retracement upward Levels of thort term up moves are as follows:-

23.6%- 4990
38.2%- 4923
50.0%- 4869
61.8%- 4815
76.4%- 4748

Nifty closed at 4944 after forming low at 4922 on 8-12-2011. Next supports within Pull Back Rally(4640-5099) are as folllows:-

1- 4920-4950
2- 4755-4800
3- 4645-4720

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 09-12-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(08-dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Two hours straight fall immediately after opening.
2- Last more than 4 hours sideways trading between 4928-4980 with intraday selling patterns
3- Whole day trading between 4922-5049

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

As selling patterns were concluded from intraday charts analysis therefore following lines were updated in Pre-Closing Outlook today and being repeated as conclusion from today intraday charts analysis:-

"last 4 hours sideways trading between 4928-4980 with intraday selling patterns therefore more down moves possibilities turned higher after breaking down of that support range in which Nifty is trading(4920-4950)"

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Correction is on and more down moves are expected after more than 4 hours intraday selling patterns today within above mentioned 1st support range. Complete consolidation patterns are required for stopping and reversal of today started down moves. Let on going correction stop and consolidation start then fresh up moves will be considered and for this purpose following level and support range will be firstly watched:-

1- 61.8% retracement level- 4815.
2- Next support range- 4755-4800