Technical Analysis & Market Outlook(07-12-2011)

Pre-open Outlook(07-12-2011)

Sideways Indian markets between 4720-5229 for the last 69 Sessions and at present short term trend is up. Nifty closed above 55-Day EMA(today at 5033) and near the higher levels of resistance range of 5000-5060. Sustaining above 5060 will be confirmation of good strength and Intermediate term trend  turning up. Just click follwing link for detailed analysis with EOD chart:-

Rally is on after Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern Support

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 07-12-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(05-dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5003-5033 
2- Minor selling between 5038-5052
3- Whole day trading between 5003-5055 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although minor selling at higher levels between 5038-5052 but intraday patterns are showing good consolidation formations at lower levels last Monday. Short term up trend is already on and continuation of rally is expected in the coming sessions after previous session good intraday consolidations.

Market Outlook(07-12-2011)

All the Asian markets are positive today morning after weaker closing yesterday therefore sentiment is maintained and good today morning. Expexcted that Indian markets will be finally positive and  also close in Green above previous session trading range after follow up consolidation today.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 05-Dec-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 05-Dec-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 05-Dec-2011 1506.92 1360.19 146.73

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 05-Dec-2011 650.91 613.24 37.67

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(05-Dec-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.88
Nifty P/E Ratio(05-Dec-2011): 18.24

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1364
BSE DECLINES : 1370
NSE ADVANCES : 678
NSE DECLINES : 718

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Dec)- -57850(-1.13%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Dec)- +29200(+0.59%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Dec)- +634650(+11.59%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Dec)- +126300(+3.21%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,039.15(-11Points & -0.22%)
Sensex- closed at 16,805.33(-41.50 Points & -0.25% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,818.65(-0.70 Points & -0.01%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,195.36(+5.33 Points & +0.09%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-12-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5115
R2 5085
R1 5062
Avg 5032
S1 5009
S2 4979
S3 4956

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5092     Trgt 2
H5 5080     Trgt 1
H4 5068     Long breakout
H3 5053     Go Short
H2 5048
H1 5043
L1 5034
L2 5029
L3 5024     Long
L4 5009     Short Breakout
L5 4997     Trgt 1
L6 4985     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-12-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 5155
R2 5120
R1 5092
Avg 5057
S1 5029
S2 4994
S3 4966

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5128     Trgt 2
H5 5114     Trgt 1
H4 5099     Long breakout
H3 5082     Go Short
H2 5076
H1 5070
L1 5059
L2 5053
L3 5047     Long
L4 5030     Short Breakout
L5 5015     Trgt 1
L6 5001     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-12-2011

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 9432
R2 9340
R1 9273
Avg 9181
S1 9114
S2 9022
S3 8955

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9368     Trgt 2
H5 9331     Trgt 1
H4 9294     Long breakout
H3 9250     Go Short
H2 9236
H1 9221
L1 9192
L2 9177
L3 9163     Long
L4 9119     Short Breakout
L5 9082     Trgt 1
L6 9045     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(05-12-2011)

Whatsoever was told yesterday for today markets,same is being seen after weak opening and intraday correction has also been seen today.

Nifty is trading between resistance range of 5000-5060 and sustaining above 5060 will be next up moves and intermediate up trend confirmation.

Lower levels consolidation and support seen between 5003-5025 and selling formations also seen at higher levels between 5038-5052 today therefore sustaining beyond today trading range will be next moves confirmation and should be firstly watched also.

Although almost whole day negative zone trading but intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations therefore continuation of rally expected in the coming sessions.

(As busy since morning therefore outlooks could not be posted since morning today)

Continuation of Strong Rally after Minor Correction

Weekly Outlook(Dec 05 to Dec 09,2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD,weekly and Monthly charts,Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 5 Charts therefore not being repeated. Just click following topic links and go through detailed analysis for trading in nexr week:-

1- New Historical Highs in 2012
2- Positive MACD and Continuation of impulsive Wave-5
3- Rally is on after Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern Support
4- Nifty-20 days Intra Days Chart Micro Analysis(Nov 14 to Dec 02,2011)
5- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 05-12-2011

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Following question has been replied in above mentioned topics:-

Why Previous week begun rally have given birth to that rally which may form new highs in Indian markets?

Next resistances between 5000-5400 are as follows:-

1- 5000-5060
2- 5130-5225
3- 5260-5310
4- 5340-5365

Nifty closed above 55 Day SMA  and at the higher levels of above mentioned 1st resistance,sustaining above these two levels will be confirmation of intermediate term up trend and in that situation 3 weeks to 3 months up moves will be expected.

Weekly indicators have started to move up but not overbought therefore telling for more up moves but some daily indicators are entering into overbought area therefore showing possibility of minor correction therefore minor intraday or daily correction may be seen before a stong rally. Following 2 characteristics of Bull markets should also be kept in mind;-

1- Markets correction at higher levels or within range bound mode and does not slips too much.
2- Indicators remain in overbought zone for months also.

Intraday indicators have shown divergence in overbought zone last Friday therefore minor correction is possible in the beginning of week but rally is on. Until complete selling patterns will not be seen minimum in Daily charts till then any reversal or deeper correction will not be considered. As no such pattern seen yet therefore continuation of rally expected after minor correction.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 05-12-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(02-dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- First 3 hours lower levels consolidation confirmation and support at lower levels between 4920-4958
2- Mixed patterns between 5005-5035.
3- Divergence in all the indicators during last 2 hours
4- closing at the top of upper band in Bollinger Band.
5- Whole day trading between 4920-5062

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Strong rally after lower levels consolidations but in the lst 2 hours mixed trading patterns and divergence in indicators therefore minor intraday correction is possible in the beginning of weak. Expected that Nifty will not slip below support range 4920-4958 in mentioned correction  and finally rally will be seen after consolidation between last Friday range.

Final conclusions from all the Monthly,Weekly daily and intraday Charts will be posted before the opening of next Monday market

Nifty-20 days Intra Days Chart Micro Analysis(Nov 14 to Dec 02,2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Nov 14 to Dec 02,2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 20 days intraday charts

1- Support and base formation at lower levels
2- 7 Days Rally
3- Sharp surge last Friday.
4- All intraday Oscillators in overbought zone.

Conclusions from 20 Days intra day chart analysis 

Strong rally seen in last week after lower levels base formations therefore very short term intraday indicators have reached into overbought zone and firstly cooling down is expected through minor correction which may be little deeper. This fact should also be kept in mind that many times bullish market corrects in range bound mode. 

Rally is on after Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern Support

Nifty-EOD Chart(02-Dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 68 Sessions range bound trading between 4720-5229
2- Range broken 2 times,once Broken out and once broken down.
3- Trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in last 4 months.
4- Gap support in previous week

Conclusions

Nifty traded between 4720-5229 in previous 68 sessions,broken out and broken down 2 times but each time reversed into this range . Almost 13 Months correction and finally previous 4 months range bound markets. As trend reversal Broadening Pattern formations at the bottom of correction also therefore expected that finally 13 months down trend will reverse after completion of correction and strong rally will start to cross the top of correction(6338).

Rally started in previous week and and intermediate term trend is up. As rally started after the formation of trend reversal Broadening Pattern therefore expected that strong up moves will be seen in the coming sessions and sustaining above following 2 levels will be confirmation of long term trend turning upward as well as blasting rally in Indian stock markets:-

1- 5229(Top of 68 sessions range bound market)
2- 5400( Top of Broadening Pattern)

Positive MACD and Continuation of impulsive Wave-5

Nifty-Weekly Chart(02-Dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- Falling Channel Wave-4 correction.
2- Wave-4 corrective structure without any trend reversal pattern.
3- Pull Back Rally commencement in previous week.
4- MACD line upward intersection of Average line.

Conclusions

MACD line upward intersection of Average line also seen in weekly chart and it is strong indication of long term up trend formation. Corrective Wave 4 started on 05-11-2010 from 6338 and its latest lowest formed at 4640 on 24-11-2011. No long term trend reversal pattern seen in this corrective move. As Wave-4 structure is corrective Falling channel pattern therefore it is showing possibility of impulsive Wave-5 formation after completion of corrective Wave-4.

Previous week begun forceful up moves may finally prove impulsive Wave-5 after correction completion of Wave-4 and such confirmation will mean strong Wave-5 rally towards and above top of Wave-4(6338).

New Historical Highs in 2012

Nifty-Monthly Chart(02-Dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in monthly chart

1- 13 Months correction of Wave-4
2- Completion of 5 corrective Sub-Waves.
3- Up moves begun in Nov 2011.
4- Strong indications of Wave-5 beginning

Conclusions

Financial markets have a high probability tendency of reversing on a Fibonacci number. As 13 is a Fibonacci number and Wave-4 has completed 13 months correction in Nov 2011 therefore long term correction completion and 13 months old trend reversal possibility is high.

As Pull Back rally begun in Nov 2011,other indicators are also suggesting exhaustion of down moves and Intermedaite term trend has also turned up yesterday as well as 5 Sub-Waves have also completed therefore lower levels formed in Nov 2011 may also prove the lowest of on going corrective Wave-4 rally.

Indian markets are Bullish on long charts and impulsive Wave-5 commencement confirmation is required and if Nov 2011 begun rally finally gives such confirmations then that will mean;-

1- Fast rally toward all time high
2- New all time highs in 2012
3- Those higher levels which were considered in Jan 2008 and Jan 2011.  

Although tough to accept above mentioned possibilities at this moment amid most bearish and uncertain global sentiments but we are seeing high possibility of new historical highs in 2012 because Indian markets are reversing after completion of long term correction also.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 02-Dec-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 02-Dec-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 02-Dec-2011 2588.37 1991.48 596.89

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 02-Dec-2011 838.13 945.66 -107.53

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(02-Dec-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green at top of the day.
2- Long White Candle.
3- Srtong rally today.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.96
Nifty P/E Ratio(02-Dec-2011): 18.28


Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1763
BSE DECLINES : 1036
NSE ADVANCES : 1002
NSE DECLINES : 403

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Dec)- -93850(-2.50%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Dec)- +1445650(+40.99%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Dec)- -569350(-9.55%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Dec)- +1426950(+1426950%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Dec)- -710800(-11.48%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Dec)- +1608500(+66.05%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,050.15(+113.30 Points & +2.29%)
Sensex- closed at 16,846.83(+363.38 Points & +2.20%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,819.35(+112.30 Points & +1.67%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,190.03(+66.32 Points & +1.08%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-12-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5246
R2 5154
R1 5102
Avg 5010
S1 4958
S2 4866
S3 4814

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5197     Trgt 2
H5 5163     Trgt 1
H4 5129     Long breakout
H3 5089     Go Short
H2 5076
H1 5063
L1 5036
L2 5023
L3 5010     Long
L4 4970     Short Breakout
L5 4936     Trgt 1
L6 4902     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-12-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 5291
R2 5192
R1 5136
Avg 5037
S1 4981
S2 4882
S3 4826

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5239     Trgt 2
H5 5202     Trgt 1
H4 5165     Long breakout
H3 5122     Go Short
H2 5108
H1 5094
L1 5065
L2 5051
L3 5037     Long
L4 4994     Short Breakout
L5 4957     Trgt 1
L6 4920     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-12-2011

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 9688
R2 9460
R1 9333
Avg 9105
S1 8978
S2 8750
S3 8623

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9575     Trgt 2
H5 9488     Trgt 1
H4 9402     Long breakout
H3 9304     Go Short
H2 9272
H1 9239
L1 9174
L2 9141
L3 9109     Long
L4 9011     Short Breakout
L5 8925     Trgt 1
L6 8838     Trgt 2